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EURUSD Breaking Bad - Look to Short the next counter-rally EURUSD EUR broke important support at the 1.15088 line on Friday and then collapsed in a near straight line towards the next line of support at 1.13679, after making a low 19 pips above here so far. All these lines on DXY and Gold and here too are weeks old and none of these charts have had to be updated or amended....showing how slooooow most markets are compared to Bitcoin, which needs updating every day and somettimes more. There's a lot to be said for the quiet life. Bitcoin is Formula 1 full-on - or used to be : ( Everything else is so sloooow in comparison. Still believe that Bitcoin provides the best training ground for trading across multiple markets - but they require way more patience usually, that's all. The break on Friday looks like the prelude to bigger a break-down which should take EUR back down to 1.0855 and potentially as far back as 1.0490 through the Autumn/Fall period. In the very near term the nearest support potential lies at 1.1367 and extends down to 1.1316 which should create a counter rally back to the 1.148-1.1508 range at best before it falls away again - it may be quite dramatic when it does. Look to short the counter-rally with stops just above the 1.1532 level by a few pips. Can use the DXY chart as confirmation. TP 1 1.1118 TP2 1.0855 TP3 1.0490 For fastest updates in real-time please see Global Markets link at top left of main page.
Short
by sumastardon
3
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trade-Points from Here BTCUSD: Bitcoin Update 2nd August 09:54 Bst 05:54 Est Bitcoin made the double bottom at 7465 after a little spike lower to 7453 on low volume overnight before reversing higher again. It's still a little weird that it stopped where it did. It may be manipulation and maybe not. It's not easy to say for sure. But it was a little strange and means we need to stay alert to signals and not trade too much on hope values - that's easier said than done sometimes . But signals beat hope usually. During the course of the overnight session Bitcoin has managed to climb back above the 7661 line but there's no volume now. There's near term support at 7625 - has to hold up here on retests to stay in with a decent chance of pushing higher to 7788 again. Resistance extends from 7788 up to 7824 and it should then move sideways for a while inside the range from 7788-7824 at the highs and 7661-7625 at the lows, but 7625 has to hold up from here for this to play out for the bulls later on. Stops on any longs need to be just below here for now. Any subsequent break above 7825 on rising volume would be a very bullish signal and worth following for 240 points or so looking for a retest of the 8068 line. Right now it's back in neutral again in the nearterm but stands a high chance of breaking higher later just so long as 7625 continues to hold up from here. Has to break below 7610 on Bitmex to flip back to negative again back to the 7460-7450 range. For now it looks like scalps again. It's slow hard graft again for a while. The scalps are 150-200 points though. We only need 3 or 4 of these per week to make good returns even in difficult conditions. *For Bitcoin updates in real-time over the Summer please check the link at top-left of main page. Bitcoin Update 1st August 11.55 Bst 06:55 Est Bitcoin finally started to fall away again around midnight Bst / 19:00 Est, losing the 7661 support line to make an overnight low at 7465 before rallying back to the same 7661 line this morning in Europe. Price action is a little strange at the moment though. It's now coming off again from where it should do but there's minor support right here at 7540 which is holding it up. Want to move the stop down to 7575 just in case it flips back up for a while longer. At least this will capture another 80 or so points of profit if it gets hit. Otherwise short stops can be lowered to 7665 for rought break even if this trade goes wrong from here. It still hasn't come close to the next short downside target at the 7347-7209 range and volume is fairly light still. All we can do at this point is manage the stops as best we can and hope for some volume to force it lower to the target. In meantime we need to watch for a potential double bottom forming at 7465 on low volumes. Some may prefer to keep lowering the stop to within 15 points or so of price due to low volumes, depending on risk profile if margin trading. In the absence of volumes rising we may get stopped out. If so that's going to be frustrating but so be it. On the upside for Bitcoin to escape the downtrend it has to break back above the 7661 line and hold up on the retest . This price action is a little spooky. If it won't go down it has to eventually start thinking about going the other way. We aren't at that point yet but it's moving that way. This looks to be the 4th wave down and it's not pushing lower so far. It's finding support off the dynamic that's formed since the weekend - these signs are enough to warrant caution. Cannot stay gung-ho short from this point. Price action is saying we have to stay bearish but cautious for now.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
3
BTCUSD Bitcoin Next Swing Trades From HereBitcoin Chart Updates XBT A slow weekend of range trading has given way to an equally slow start come Monday. It's held up well through Saturday and Sunday but here is still no intererst above the 8298 line as yet. Spikes of desire off the 8070 line and rejection spikes above of equal dimensions from the 8298 line show equal indecision here at these levels. Unless day trading within this range it means swing traders have to wait a while longer for a resolution to the on-going fight between the two battle-lines that have been laid down through the weekend. A break above 8300-8315 range is needed on the upside on rising volumes to follow long again looking for 8576 initially. Then has to break above 8600 from that point to trigger another long shot to 8884-9020 range. Next resistance levels above here lie at 9388 and then 9898. And on the downside Bitcoin has to break below 8080-8050 for the bears to win this long drawn-out battle and to follow short back to 7788 initially. There's a second support level at 7661. A break below here should be worth following back to 7347-7209 range. Then there's a bigger break on any fall below 7200 back to 6792. Wave Counts How many waves up have we had? 3 or 4 from the low. If it's the 4th for sure then this rally is already getting past its sell-by date. If it's the 3rd it means we could still yet see a 4th. Hence this only adds to uncertainty. However, if we've had 4 and it now breaks below the 8080-8050 range it's unlikely to just fall away to 7788 and then bounce away again. There will most likely be 3 or waves down - so swing traders can short from 8050 with stops above 8080 and let it run. Upside strength from here is not so certain. Look to scalp the break if it comes on the upside later. We need volume to come in behind us as usual to know the break is good.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
2
SPX: S&P 500 Next Trade Points from HereS&P 500 SPX500USD Of the 3 charts followed for S&P 500 index, this one has been the most reliable recently. We were looking for S&P strength as the last but one of the Fangs report earnings with Amazon on 26th after hours. Google has helped overnight. After triple bottoming at the 2790 support line the S&P has rallied higher, making a little spike off the next line at 2809 before pushing higher still. It should move on up to test 2836-2837 on this feed, then consolidate some, perhaps back to 2814 at lows before it rallies again. Has to beat 2837 to trigger further near term strength up to 2876 -2877 where it should top out and reverse if touched later in the week. No point in trying to fight this until earnings are almost done with. The turn may come on 26th. Let's see - time should tell us the next trade from there... 19th July Update Am counting on a 4th wave on the back of earnings in near term - It could use some great results from Microsoft tonight - merely 'good' numbers will be a bit of a let down - on the Dow also and Dax too. Looking at this index in isolation it still looks like it has more upside left and will eventually break higher above 2814 up to 2838 and then after consolidating some more here, it should push on to 2876 highs again. On the downside it has to break below 2798 to short back to 2788/7 where it must bounce again if the trend is to remain positive in the nearer term and for a retest of the highs to remain the likeliest outcome from here.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin XBT Stops Update and Next Trade Points from HereBitcoin Bitmex Update Not much has changed overnight. It was still a buy on tests of the 7355 line but only for scalps... If you bought on the second test of this level overnight raise the stop to 7438 for now. The spikes above price suggest it's still not wanted much above 7500 so far. The rest stays the same for now, a repeat of yesterday as nothing has changed yet. On Bitmex feed it's still effectively stuck in the range bounded by three lines of important resistance at 7615 and 7683 and 7741 and one line of support at 7265, which now needs extending to cover the spike low. Whilst inside the range it looks like scalping opportunities at best for now. Buy on dips towards the 7355 nearest support line with stops just under 7350 looks to be the best option for those looking to trade this inside the range from here. For others, an eventual break either side of the range should be worth following more aggressively. Has to break above 7750 on high volume to follow long looking for 8600. And on the downside has to break below 7240 on rising volumes for next good shorting opportunity, looking for a retest if 6819-6792 range where it should bounce again if tested. But until then it looks like we remain limited to scalping opportunities inside the range *Day-Traders: For fastest updates in real-time please check link at top-left of main page.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by sumastardon
4
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Potential Trade Points From HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Points From Here After a surprisingly active weekend of over 750 points profit (from 7579 before getting stopped out at 6825, stop was too close by about 45 points or so here, sorry) Bitcoin has moved back into neutral in the nearterm. On the Bitmex chart Bitcoin is now moving in a 200 point range bounded by near term resistance at 6860 and near term support at 6660. Its best hope now is for it to hold up until US opens and to find buyers enough from there to break above 6815 on Futures and 6860 here on Bitmex - the ensuing counter-rally should be worth following back to 7056 and 7200-7289 at best if we see it develop later. But at the moment Bitcoin is drifting on lack of interest either way, nearterm neutral but will remain vulnerable whilst unable to regain and hold the 6860 line here. It now has to break below 6600 to trigger a quick short opportunity to 6481-6428 (often the only way to trade it is to place orders and limits on Bitmex beforehand most likely. The spikes often show imprints in the trail where other traders have done the same thing). On the downside there are a series of closely positioned support levels beginning at 6660, then 6518-6481 and last-gasp support at 6428 - which must hold up today for Bitcoin bulls to stand any chance from here. This might make trading the break lower trickier than usual so will need to take care if trading this part of the range. But any failure to hold 6420 from this point today will likely flip Bitcoin down to 5887 next. So 6425 is most likely the point that swings and day traders are likely to start to short more aggressively when broken with stops either quite tight above, and no higher than 6620.
BITMEX:XBT
by sumastardon
6
XRPUSD Ripple: Take nearterm Profits/Next Long Set-UpSaturday Update Take Profits/Next Long Set-Up Ripple has had a nice break since busting the neck-line and is now testing the first line of reisistance at .6493 It really needs Bitcoin to break above 7735 for it to power ahead from here to the next resistance line at 6921. Can take profits here and get ready to go long again once .65 is taken back by the bulls and then join again with stops a little below the same line once broken. 11:39gmt 06:39est Friday Making a little reverse head and shoulders quite similar to Bitcoin. Has 8 points upside when and if it breaks - which is a little more than Bitcoin's likely upside potential, even if the RHS is successful later on today on the daddy. *For updates in real-time this weekend please check link at top-left of main page
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD Bitcoin: Next Trade Points TodayBTCUSD: Bitcoin: Next Trade Points Bitcoin was expected to fall back to 7301 before bouncing away again. In the event it fell to an intra-day low at 7273 before the bounce came. Not great. Since then it's made a high at 7599 and extended to touch the upper end of the same (less acute) parallels that have been running inside the noise of the last 4 days or so. The near term picture is still more positive than negative at this point and Bitcoin should push higher still towards the next upside target at 7760-7817 as the day wears on. But in the near term it's a little over-extended and needs to consolidate again. Initial support lies at 7480- any failure here will likely create a fast retest of the 7401 line at lowest today. It must hold here off the lower rising parallel for the counter-rally to stay good from this point. If wrong at this point any eventual failure here at 7400 will turn the tables yet again and trigger another near term short back to 7166.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
GBPUSD: Month-End Update and next Trade Points from HereGBPUSD Update 31st May Month End Streling has fallen to the downside target at 1.3301 after a low at the old 1.3219 support line for a 150 pip or so profit. Eventually it should fall away further to the next support line at 1.3029 but in the near term the counter-rally is already pushing the upper dynamic at 1.3345. It should stop here really looking at this chart in isolation. But DXY looks like it has more unwinding to do in near term and so this could push higher still from here. The difficult bit in the immediate near term is figuring whether the near term reversal point is right here at 1.3345 or at the next line above here at 1.3462 - but it's going to fall away again from one of these two lines most likely and then test 1.3029 in June.
Short
by sumastardon
EURUSD Counter-Rally to Upper Parallel Before next DeclineineEURUSD 30th May EUR has finally reached the month-long downside target at 1.1558 just in time for the end of the May. It actually exceeded the target by 45 pips before reversing higher and creating the first strong green candles of buying intent the market has seen for months now. But the counter rally is running out of momentum now whilst DXY holds above 94. Initial resistance for EUR lies here at the 1.1676 line and extends to the line above at 1.1731. This range, bounded by the two lines, is likely to prove insurmountable in the very near term - it will need DXY itself to break below 94 to break the upper parallel here - in which case the bears will retreat further here too and it should then rally 90 or so pips higher still to 1.1821 on more bear closing before falling away again. That looks to be best case scenario for EUR from here though. (At the same time DXY should then fall to test the 93.36-93.12 range and then bounce higher again.) So long as 94 holds up on DXY the Euro is likely to remain trapped within the medium term downtrend of April/May and likely to fall away from the upper parallel once more when challenged. But this time around the next sell off from the upper parallel of the larger impulse wave has a reasonable chance of creating a double bottom around the 1.1558-1.1540 range when it does fall away again - so any fresh shorts taken out around current levels need closing down again here. Any subsequent fall below 1.1535 will then be needed to trigger fresh shorts from here back to the 1.1318-1.1287 range.
Short
by sumastardon
2
ETHUSD Next Trade Points from HereETHUSD Bitfinex Although it's bounced off the support line at 543 after a spike low at 538 ETH is still vulnerable until it clamber back above the 593 line here and hold up on the restest once it does so. If you bought off the 543 line here it's not a bad idea to take at least half off the table again if not all. It will follow Bitcoin as usual. Can buy again once we see 593 retaken and held again for less risk. All alts should have been sold when Bitcoin fell below 9300 if you go back that far... Still no evidence here to warrant buying back again at this point yet. But it's trying at least.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD Next Larger Trades from HereBitcoin (Bitstamp) Update Just flipping up and down inside the continuation pattern so far still. What looks like 3 minor waves up so far - can be another one soon but still the pattern here is not worth trading unless playing off the minor parallels for scalps right now. As before it has to break the 8468 line here for a rally to 8539 where there is quite a lot of overhead resistance potential. Bitcoin really has to break above here to start attracting more buyers and to start flipping short stops quite quickly. So this is the point where swing traders are most likely to join any rally - we can too if we see it happen later. Otherwise the field belongs to day traders in the near term. On the downside we need to see a break below the lower parallel of the continuation pattern to trigger another short. If the bears can keep price under the lower parallel this will eventually fall away again until buyers can be found once more. It should then fall to the 8240-8161 range and when broken below will start to pick up speed to 7797 at least, if not to 7562. But be careful of the break lower if and when it comes. It may only fall to 8286 -8240 range to start with - if it rallies again from there do not want it bouncing much above 8351 and back to the underside of the lower small rising parallel once broken below. And ideally we want to see no real bounce at all - at any rate a break below the 8240-8161 range on this feed by 10 or more points will tip Bitcoin back into negative and us into full-on bear mode again, targeting 7797 at least, then 7562 and potenially much lower still.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
BTCUSD Bitcoin Next Trade Points from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trades from Here 19:41gmt 12:41est This still looks corrective at this point. No big green impulse wave starting yet which would be the first signal that this is a real bottom here. It's the weekend coming up and still no sign of buyers in any numbers. But there is a chance so we need to cover it in case - it is holding here still at least. But it has to break above 8654 - 8680 get free of the parallels and trigger a long with stops under 8630. Otherwise and in absence of break higher we wait for a potential break lower needing to see the lows broken by 10 points or more before moving short again (as outlined previously above) 15:42 gmt 10:42est Bitcoin Bitstamp Continuation Patterns Can rally to 8654 but looks unlikely to get much higher at this point. The last patterns lasted for 4 hours or more - this one is about 2 hours 40 minutes old so far 17:10gmt 12:10est Still not a good look so far .... Day traders playing the range - buying off the lower parallel and selling from the upper . Has to break the lower parallel to get short again.And has to break and not spike above 8654 for an 80 point spurt to 8736 where the second parallel lies in wait. It then has to break above this line to run free for a while longer to 8822-8830 minimum and potentially back to 9000. But so far this rally can still not be trusted 17:59 gmt 12:59est Daytraders now closing out longs again and some reversing short again off the 8654 line - can push higher towards upper parallel - but still cannot think of a long unless the upper falling parallel is broken above. This is still just a continuation pattern at the moment. That only changes if the upper parallel is broken from here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trade Points From HereBitcoin Trade Points Today Bitcoin was left looking at a counter-rally 'towards 9700 before it comes off again'. It took another 7 hours or so of whipsaw and confusion to get there but by 01:00 gmt/20:00est Bitcoin made a high at 9671, taking out more stops placed just below here in the mind-numbing game of Pacman/hunt the stop that lasted right through the US session and only came alive again as far Eastern markets reopened. Then, finally the break materialised as Bitcoin fell through the lower parallel of the continuation pattern and we then got a decent streak of tradeable red - that is if you hadn't been sent to sleep in the meantime. But if you were patient enough to stay with it you got the rewards - in the end. Trading Bitcoin is similar to fishing. Both need the patience to wait for the fish to come to you. It was meant to fall back to the 9253-9180 range before rallying again with any real power behind it. The low so far is 9207. Since then Bitcoin has fallen away to create a new pair of parallels, bouncing off the lower parallel and making another small continuation pattern in a smaller pair of rising parallels withing the larger falling parallel formation. It's now touching resistance off the upper smaller rising parallel and vulnerable once more - a sell from here with stops above the same small parallel. It can spend several hours messing with heads again like yesterday, falling to the lower parallel of the continuation pattern and rallying again, potentially as high as 9469 and the upper parallel later on, though in near term the 9375 line is proving hard to beat. Long story short, we're looking a pattern similar to yesterday's so far. Sheesh. It looks like it has longer to play out but the pattern can break at any point really. It's therefore in day trader territory right now again. To escape the downtrend it has to break above the 9469 line and hold - if we see it materialise later can follow long with stops below. And on the downside after more time spent moving within the rising parallels of the continuation pattern the next short gets triggered on a break below the lower rising parallel under price now with stops above. Until then this is likely to drive us nuts with frustration. Patience or time-out in meantime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
15