Netflix - Catching KnivesI'm not one to try and catch a falling knife but Netflix is down over 50% from it's all time high and the last time its weekly RSI was this oversold was back in 2011.
NFLX doesn't pay a dividend at the moment. Stock price is back to levels it was in March 2018, before the surge in customers added during the pandemic and before it's most recent price hike in subscriptions. May be a nice one to dollar cost average your way into.
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NFLX
Netflix in More Trouble? Netflix - Short Term - We look to Sell at 358.64 (stop at 378.80)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Previous support, now becomes resistance at 360.00. The primary trend remains bearish. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
Our profit targets will be 291.27 and 281.07
Resistance: 360.00 / 400.00 / 450.00
Support: 300.00 / 290.00 / 250.00
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Shopping at GAPs..!These days, your stocks create big gaps (usually down side) after earnings!
Some People think this could be a good opportunity to enter a long position.
but
Is it really good to do that?
My simple answer to this question is:
No
Why?
Look at these examples in the past few months:
FB:
DOCU:
PYPL:
F:
ZM:
PINS:
WISH:
UPST:
BABA:
I hope you are convinced by now..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
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Netflix (NASDAQ: $NFLX) Back In The Buy Zone! 🤑Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
Don't fall for the NarrativeThere's a general narrative going around of "buy the dip" and "look at these undervalued stocks". The goal here is not to compare Facebook to Microsoft to Paypal as companies, but to look at relative price structure between a handful of popular stocks. In this case, we have a few giant companies; Tesla , Facebook and Microsoft , charted against the smaller Paypal and Netflix , and which have taken a recent beating (along with Facebook ). The lines in the chart are an 1800 week linear regression of Microsoft's per-dollar performance relative to the M2 . The lines don't mean anything and are merely a rough guideline of history-projected asset strength. The prices are M2 adjusted to account for money supply expansion.
Facebook has been underperforming since 2018 after making a huge run in 2013 onward, but the notion that "it's a good deal" hardly stands up if you look at the relative trajectory of Microsoft and Tesla . Facebook was one of the biggest to rise, and was one of the first to fall. Microsoft on the other hand has a huge history of being an efficient capital allocator, and will probably be one of the last to fall. Let's ask the question: If Microsoft and Tesla make the same correction as did Paypal and Facebook , do you think Paypal and Facebook will be lower or higher following this hypothetical correction? The gut feeling here is that Paypal/ Facebook / Netflix /Peloton etc. COULD end up falling even more, given that many of these larger cap stocks are still standing well. I would rather short Tsla / Msft than long Paypal/ Facebook / Netflix /Peloton etc. given the current environment.
It's easy to want to fomo into these stocks when you look at a year or two of history, but I think this paints a more realistic picture.
Good luck and hedge your bets :)
Note: The arrows are not price targets, just medium term directional indicators.
Netflix Analysis 11.02.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
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Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
Is Ackman Right to Buy Netflix (NFLX)?Today we were discussing the purchases of Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX by Bill Ackman:
Ackman sent a letter to investors in his hedge fund saying he had bought more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix, the video streaming pioneer whose stock had seen such vast reversals in recent days that it had been trading at June 2018 levels.
At Netflix’s current price of about $390 per share, the purchase gives Ackman a stake worth more than $1 billion — and makes him one of Netflix’s top 20 shareholders.
That is a pretty bold buy from one of my favorite contrarian investors but do I like the trade? I'm going to use my own Technical Analysis to see before making a decision...
Why are Netflix shares down 30% in 2022?Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares have tumbled 30% YTD, similar to its tech brethren, who have by-in-large, been facing huge downward pressure. For interest sake, NFLX was down 37% from its all-time high in November 2021.
Two major events have eaten into the gains that NFLX made in 2021. The first is investor confidence waning in growth stocks in the face of looming interest rate rises. And the second has perhaps had a greater impact; a tepid earnings report.
Netflix shares experienced a significant sell-off two weeks ago, after releasing its Q4 2021 earnings report. The report noted that the pace at which Netflix is adding subscribers is slowing. Such a declaration typically spooks Netflix investors, who steadfastly hold the streaming platform still has plenty of room to grow and shrink its price-to-earnings ratio.
Before Netflix’s share price dipped by 30%, its PE ratio was ~60.0. As it stands, with Netflix trading at US $429.48 per share, its PE ratio is now ~38.0.
Netflix finally admits it is facing tougher competition
Typically shying away from doing so, Netflix has finally revealed that competition is hurting its subscriber growth. It is this admission that caught a lot of investors off guard.
In the past three years, Netflix has had to contend with a wave of competitors entering the streaming market, such as (in order of appearance) Apple TV+, Disney+, Peacock, HBO Max, and Paramount+.
The penultimate newcomer on the above list, the premium-placed HBO Max, has been the fastest-growing service of late, vastly outpacing Netflix and adding 73.8 million subscribers last year.
Similarly, Netflix is hurting from older streaming services increasing the appeal of their content libraries and raising investment in content creation. One such competitor, Amazon Prime, increased its spending on content by 41% to US $11 billion in 2020 from the previous year and have recently bid US $8.5 billion to acquire MGM studios and its content catalogue.
2022 looks to be a pivotal year for streaming
Will 2022 be the year that consumers start weaning off the numerous streaming services to which they are subscribed? As prices climb, this may be the likely outcome.
In this respect, Netflix may be on the back foot, having recently pushed its prices up to US $15.50 per month for its standard package. Netflix is now more expensive than the more ‘premium’ HBO Max at this price point.
One factor that could influence the price of Netflix shares over the year is whether their competition hikes their respective prices. For one, Disney+ might be expected to raise its prices before June, as its bargain pricing (introduced one year ago) becomes increasingly unsustainable. However, its attempt to hit ambitious growth targets may delay price hikes from the company.
If pricing over the different streaming services become more equitable, content becomes the deciding factor for consumers. Netflix, and Netflix’s share price, will be in a better position in this scenario as consumers by far prefer Netflix content over its competitors. As such, In 2021, even as competitors pumped funds into content creation, Netflix’s hosted 14 of the top 15 most popular TV shows and Movies.
Netflix - Possible relief rally?Key highlights:
1. Sitting in Daily demand zone
2. May try to reclaim 200MA cluster
3. Volume climax
4. Sitting at previous swing level
5. Formed a high volume bullish hammer on daily
6. RSI oversold on multiple time frames
Conclusion : Expecting a relief rally in the coming week.
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
NFLX current scenario and trading opportunitiesToday, we will take a look at NFLX after a massive gap.
Where is the price right now?
Is making contact with a weekly trendline that started in 2017; therefore, we have to consider this level a relevant zone to think in potential bouncing or breakout movements.
Bullish Scenario:
The price is able to bounce on the weekly ascending trendline and makes a breakout of the descending trendline of the current bearish movement. IF that happens, waiting for a correction after the breakout using previous scenarios as models to understand the size and duration of it is always a good idea. So, I have defined what I think the correction should look like. A new local high would be a confirmation of the bullish movement towards the next resistance zone.
Bearish Scenario:
The price is not able to bounce on the weekly trendline, and we observe a breakout. Waiting for a correction after the breakout of a relevant level using previous scenarios as models to understand the size and duration of it is always a good idea. So I have defined what I think the correction on the bearish movement should look like. A new local low after that would be a confirmation of the bearish movement towards the next support zone.
At the moment, my stand on NFLX is waiting and observing possible resolutions before taking action. Thanks for reading.