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NFLX

The Week Ahead: NFLX, ARKF/ARKG/ARKK, XBI, KWEB, URA, IWM, QQQI haven't done one of these in quite some time, but thought I'd do one over this long holiday weekend. Earnings: I looked at a number of these for next week (there are quite a few) and have culled things down to the most liquid options underlyings, ideally with implied volatility rank >70% and 30-day greater than 50%. Only NFLX really fits that bill, even though it's a smidge shy of a 50% 30-day. For instance, I did look at CTXS (87/46), but when I dug into the options table, I wasn't fantastically excited about setting up a short strangle with only 2.5 to 5-wides where I'd want to set up my tent on both the put and call sides. NFLX (76.9% rank/44.8% 30-day) announces earnings on Thursday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of that session if you're looking to play the announcement for a volatility contraction. Pictured here is a February 18th 450/610 short strangle with the legs camped out at the 13 delta. Paying 9.20 at the mid as of Friday's close on buying power of 52.59 (on margin), it has a 17.5% ROC at max, 8.7% ROC at 50% max. I like to go wider with earnings announcement volatility contraction plays since these do one of two things: (1) come in immediately; or (2) give you headaches for several cycles if the move has been overly large and you have to defend the setup to scratch in a contracted volatility environment. If you're more of a defined risk bent, throw on some wings: the February 18th 440/450/610/620 iron condor is paying 1.90 on buying power effect of 8.10, 23.5% ROC at max, 11.7% ROC at 50% max. Naturally, these are just preliminary pricing and strikes. You'll want to adjust strikes as necessary, since the underlying is likely to move somewhat running into earnings. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Implied Volatility Rank >50% and 30-Day >35% and Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: ARKF (84/52) (Cathie Woods' Fintech Innovation) XBI (83/43) (Biotech) ARKG (79/59) (Cathie Woods' Genomic Revolution) KWEB (60/51) (China Internet) ARKK (59/44) (Cathie Woods' Innovation) URA (41/59) (Uranium) A lot of Cathie Woods' stuff in there ... . I like to reserve these for the monthlies, since the weeklies aren't all that liquid in some of these. Unfortunately, the February 18th monthly is a little short in duration for my tastes (33 days until expiry) and March a bit long, so will probably hand sit on deploying buying power in this area until the March monthly's duration shortens -- it's currently 61 days, and I like to keep things +/- a week or so of 45 days. One underlying that doesn't really have a 52-week valid implied volatility rank is BITO (1/68), since it hasn't been around for 52 weeks yet. However, that "1" indicates that its implied is low within the range its established since inception, and I'd naturally prefer it to be higher even though its 30-day outranks all of 30-days I've got in my little list, so I'm keeping an eye on it, having just exited a BITO short strangle on Friday. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: XLK (46/27) QQQ (43/25) EFA (35/17) IWM (36/26) DIA (24/18) SPY (23/19) I've moved XLK from my exchange-traded fund grid to my broad market grid, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.87 90-day) and an even closer correlation with QQQ. XLK is about half the size of QQQ, so if you like to layer on, it's a little more nimble for that purpose. I've been selling premium in small caps (IWM) in the weeklies to bide my time while monthly setups come in or have to be managed, but may consider sticking some of my pickle into QQQ next week given the fact that its rank implies that it's more "expanded" (if that makes any sense). I'd probably use the March 4th expiry, where the QQQ 16-delta 342/408 is paying 5.69 on buying power of 48.03, 11.8% ROC at max, 5.9% at 50% max. Naturally, the market may look entirely different from an implied volatility standpoint coming off a long holiday weekend, so I always have a second look at whether doing that is worthwhile once the market opens.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
5
NETFLIX - My Trading Plan in a picture!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. on DAILY: right NFLX is overall bullish trading inside the blue channel and is now approaching the lower trendlines and 500.0 support, so we will be looking for trend-following buy setups. on H1: left NFLX is forming a channel in red but the upper trendline is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, NFLX would be overall bearish can still trade lower till the lower the 500 support. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by TheSignalyst
3
Potential for small bounce, but still BearishNetflix is down 22% from its high in November. There is a lot of downward momentum/pressure in this move and market structure is broken. Price has returned to the most recent Supply Zone, we've entered my "buy" zone, and sellers are ready to take a break--for now. I think a small bounce could happen from this level, but I'm expecting bearish momentum to carry the price deeper into the Supply Zone. I certainly wouldn't short here, but given all the negative energy, I'm not interested in NFLX until I see bullish divergence. ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NASDAQ:NFLX
by mercury_rising
What's up with Netflix $NFLXFor this analysis we are looking at the daily timeframe. NFLX is in a nice uptrend, but currently we are seeing a retracement, which is the chance to buy a nice stock at a smaller price. Netflix recently broke the upper resistance of an ascending triangle formation, which is a bullish sign. The break was followed by a fastly reached ATH from which the price dropped to the 550$ mark, which is 1. supported by a weekly trendline (TL) and 2. the upper resistance (now support) of the previously broken triangle pattern, which suggests that rn could be a good time to enter a long position, right? But before spending your hard earned money right away, have a look at the $NFLX earnings (January 27th). $NFLX lately tends to fail analyst expectations on earning reports (and $NFLX tends to perform better in Q1-Q3), the rather small drops after failing those kind of reports (as long as the expectations aren't missed drastically) tend to be corrected after a couple weeks, but this drop in price could give you a chance to buy a second position. Idea: enter a long position during the next week (since we need confirmation that our supports are stable), your TP could be at the previous ATH (21% gain if you decide to enter where I will enter (you can see the trade entry on my chart)) As always: no financial advice
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by SimpForProfit
Rectangle Pattern!A rectangle occurs when the price is moving between horizontal support and resistance levels. The pattern indicates there is no trend, as the price moves up and down between support and resistance. The rectangle ends when there is a breakout, and the price moves out of the rectangle. Some traders like to trade the rectangles, buying near the bottom and selling or shorting near the top, while others prefer to wait for breakouts. (Investopedia) Double Top Scenario: Correction Wave Scenario: Conclusion: NFLX will go down to 575-580 in the next 10 trading days or sooner! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
NFLX Support, then ShortNFLX H&S forming or has formed depending on your point of view. I think we can see a bounce or BTFD! Especially because we are currently on the 200ma. This is not mandatory if the market really shows more panic and weakness we will get no bounce. Again playing the odds. Tomorrow is crucial to see support kick in, and can even squeeze a quick 9-10% return before going short. Current Market Environment: - Fed is going to reduce the balance sheet - Hike in interest rates, - EPS is slowing, - Overall economic GDP is decelerating.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by SheepWoolos
$W $NFLX $UBER $AAPL I OptionsSwing WatchlistW 1D I As stay at home stocks bounced a bit last Friday, we had W bounce 8%+ right at our support. W seems to be forming a bull flag on the daily chart. NFLX 1H I NFLX is down more than 15% from all time high levels. Watching for a breakout from this downtrend, for either a relief bounce or a stay at home stocks rally. UBER 1H I UBER double bottom near $35. Watching for a consolidation above $39. It is a bit extended from the 9 EMA on the hourly after bouncing 13%+ from $35. AAPL 1H I AAPL is down 10 points after hitting a double top near $180. It seems to be consolidating right over $170 and we'll see this week if it remains on an uptrend.
NYSE:UBERLong
by optionsswing
Netflix: Buying the Dip Netflix - Short Term - We look to Buy at 564.00 (stop at 542.00) We look to buy dips. We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 479.00 from 700.00 to 563.00. The 200 day moving average should provide support at 560.00. Previous resistance, now becomes support at 560.00. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 612.00 and 633.00 Resistance: 632.00 / 675.00 / 700.00 Support: 600.00 / 560.00 / 510.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Saxo