NFLX s/tShort term trade , possibly can happen today. NFLX over highs will be targeting 690 $ .
Been on fire . Currently in ROKU , don't personally like Nflx options , only commons for this one.
NFLX
If you think technical analysis does not work, look at this!I published this analysis on October 18, 2021.
Today, you can see it hit the target zone!
If you have no time to learn different tools in technical analysis, at least do yourself a favor and learn how to use regression channels!
However, Regression channels are not pure technical analysis!
It is actually a statistical tool..!
Most quant funds use statistical models to open and close their position..!
The most famous model is mean reversion!
What Is Regression?
Regression is a statistical method used in finance, investing, and other disciplines that attempt to determine the strength and character of the relationship between one dependent variable (usually denoted by Y) and a series of other variables (known as independent variables).
Now, let's consider Y=Price and X=Time!
Now, you should do the math..! But do not forget we have different types of regression models: Quadratic, Qubic, Sinusoidal, and logistic...etc.
Look at these examples:
Bitcoin:
Solana:
NFLX:
USOIL:
Less room for movement, Ascending Wedge NFLXHello everyone! A rising wedge is commonly know as a reversal pattern, I'm looking to short NFLX once we reach the resistance zone in this rising wedge. Even with all the hype from Squid Game numbers and positive earnings, price is not moving much as weeks before. Today Oct 19 NFLX rise in post-market trading to the 663 (wedge resistance zone) and pullback immediately, coincidence? Just an easy setup, remember to have a stop loss!
Not a financial advisor, just my personal idea. Enjoy your week.
FXCM FAANG Basket Moves Into Bullish Stack On the DailyThe above chart show's the daily time frame of FXCM's FAANG Basket. We are using a triple EMA system to assess trend. The short-term green EMA > intermediate orange EMA and the intermediate orange EMA> the slow red EMA (blue rectangle). We note that NFLX reported last week and that the rest of the FAANGs (FB, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG) will report this week. Following their respective releases we will assess the basket's EMAs and their angle and separation. If these develop, it will be regarded as bullish, suggesting that a possible bullish momentum push may be underway.
$NFLX | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 10/25If markets show signs of weakness at any point in the near future, I believe Netflix will be one of the most prime short setup out there. Many signs pointing to downside here for the stock.
- Recent run-up due to overall hype and the massive success of Squid Games (believe we need to cool off a bit)
- Concluded all Minute, Minor and Intermediate EWT counts (assuming my count is correct)
- $VIX sitting on major support and is at it's second lowest weekly close since 2/10/20 (market is susceptible to a pullback)
With that being said, I will wait for downside confirmation as well as volume before entering a short position on Netflix. I would also want the indices to be confirming on a downtrend as well as $VIX to be in an uptrend. These factors combined would get me short. All in all, I'm still bullish in the long-term as shown.
$CRWD $SQ $TEAM $NFLX I OptionsSwing WatchlistCRWD 4H I CRWD is still testing ATH levels near $290. Our scanners picked up more activity betting on a break to $310 before 11/19. CRWD average price target is $315.
SQ 4H I SQ filled the gap last week and the OS ALGO SQ $250 calls we highlighted on our watchlist went from $3.85 to $15.50! Or a 300%+ play! Seeing support near $250.
TEAM 2H I The OS ALGO TEAM $410c 10/22 contracts we highlighted last week ended up going deep ITM. TEAM is reporting earnings on 10/28 after hours.
NFLX 4H I NFLX outperformed the market after beating earnings. Its average price target is $677, and we are starting to see a bearish divergence on the RSI.
Q3 Earnings Report Recap; TSLA, NFLX, JNJ, PGQ3 earning season is currently underway, and most high-profile companies are delivering revenue beats. Yet, Q3 revenue is not the only thing investors are watching. Investors are interested in revenue growth, customer acquisition, and pace of growth alongside the balance sheet. Inflationary and supply chain pressures that may affect the outlook of reporting companies are an additional concern for investors.
TESLA (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Reported: Wednesday, after trading
Revenue: $13.8 billion
Earnings per share: $1.86 profit per share (Non-GAAP)
Tesla’s Q3, 2021 earnings were, once again, record-setting for the Company. The Company is increasing sales and has stated it is on track to “achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries” at a time when chip shortages are hampering other automakers ability to do so. Improving gross margins (up to 30.5%) was also a significant factor in Tesla performance in Q3.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)
Reported: Tuesday, after trading
Revenue: $7.5 billion
Earnings per share: $3.19
The popularity of Netflix’s series Squid Game hadn’t completely filtered into the Company’s finances at the time of its Q3, 2021 earnings report. Yet, Netflix delivered a favourable report, with revenue coming in on par and subscriber growth beating expectations. Squid Game IP is estimated to be worth $900 million to Netflix and should help boost its Q4 earnings, which typically get a seasonal bump anyway.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
Reported: Tuesday, before trading
Revenue: $23.3 billion
Earnings per share: $2.60
Johnson & Johnson’s Q3 earnings-per-share beat expectations, with revenue climbing 10.7% from the previous corresponding period. J&J increased its (bottom-end) revenue guidance for the full year from $93.8 billion – $94.6 billion to $94.1 billion to $94.6 billion. J&J noted that its Covid vaccine would be responsible for $2.5 billion at years end and $502 million of its Q3 revenue.
Proctor and Gamble (NYSE: PG)
Reported: Tuesday, before trading
Revenue: $20.3 billion
Earnings per share: $1.61
PG beat revenue estimates, increasing sales revenue by 5% over the last quarter, but expects to fall short of 2020 revenue. The consumer goods Company also noted that rising producer costs, particularly as it relates to shipping and raw commodity prices, has already had and is going to continue to have a larger-than-anticipated effect on its earnings. In response, PG has begun raising the prices of some of its premium products as a quick remedy to help offset its rising costs.
Earning Seasons continues next week:
There are plenty more juicy earning reports due next week.
Facebook, after the bell Monday
Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Texas Instruments, and AMD, after the bell Tuesday
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, and Boeing, before the bell Wednesday
Ford, after the bell Wednesday
Shopify, before the bell Thursday
Apple, Amazon, and Starbucks after the bell Thursday
These 10 stocks just cleared the cloud out of 100+ stockswww.tradingview.com
This is the Watch List for all 10.
They all have cleared the cloud and closed Green. Some have the potential to dip to find support. However , some like this one MP looks ready from right here. All have Green Clouds that are moving up. Some however have some deep slopes of previous Red Clouds that they just worked there way through. I marked every stock on where I found it crossing out of the cloud. This way we can track its movements from the point of interest to better tailor what to expect once it pops the cloud.
AMZN
GOOG
NFLX
COST
BBY
SPOT
MP
OCGN
XPOA
TWTR
Netflix Post Q3 Earnings Analysis$NFLX - Netflix neared a record all-time high after market close - as the largest streaming service brought in more subscribers than analysts projected in Q3. Profit also beat forecasts, while Revenue was in line with estimates.
EPS of $3.19
Sales +16.3% to $7.48 billion - anticipates another +16% gain in revenue Q4
Profit of $1.4B
Revenue of $7.5B
Netflix added +4.4M subscribers globally to total 213M - expects to increase its subscriber base by +8.5M in Q4
Amazon could experience a new all time high in the coming monthsTwo of the most profitable investment of the past 2 decades are Amazon and Netflix, with mind blowing 229K % and 59K % gain..!
These two companies have a significant positive correlation :(last 2 trading year 500 candles):
Why this correlation could be important?
NFLX breaking above its consolidation area 2 weeks ago:
It would be highly likely AMZN follow the same price pattern because of the mentioned positive correlation!
My last AMZN analysis:
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NFLX Momentums is Positive Ahead Of Earnings ReleaseNFLX results are expected today after market close with an EPS forecast at 2.56. Technically, the fast green moving average is above the orange intermediate moving average, and the intermediate orange moving average is above the slow red moving average. Moreover, there is angle and separation to indicate the presence of underlying momentum. During 2020 the lockdown accelerated subscribers, however, the pace has slowed in 2021 as economies opened. As a result, NFLX has looked elsewhere for growth and has expanded into video gaming, purchasing Night School Studio in September. Investors will be looking for signs of progress. Revenue and earnings likely grew albeit at a declining rate. Market participants will also take note of the trend regarding paid streaming subscribers. We will keep an eye on the moving average stack following the earnings release to assess if the market is still willing to keep up its NFLX momentum push.
Netflix Analysis 18.10.2021Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
US Stocks - M. Minervini trend template and signs of VCPsSelection of US listed stocks meeting Mark Minervini's trend template and showing signs of VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern).
Recorded on Oct 18th.
US Market Technicals Ahead (18 October – 22 October 2021)Better than expected Q3 earnings reports from major banks powered global stock indexes to a winning week with most banks beat significantly on the top and bottom line. The earnings season continues this week, with companies such as IBM ($IBM) , Netflix ($NFLX), Tesla ($TSLA), Intel ($INTC), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) and P&G ($PG) reporting their results.
Elsewhere, figures on Q3 China economic growth (GDP) today will show the impact of multiple recent hits to the world’s second largest economy. The forecast is projected at 5 percent in the three months to September, slower than the second quarter’s 7.9 percent, amid pressures on factories from power shortages, supply bottlenecks and a resurgence of domestic COVID-19 cases.
Meanwhile, the first bitcoin futures ETF is set to begin trading, propelling the digital currency closer to all-time highs.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
Market Technicals
$SPX (S&P 500)
U.S. stocks were higher as $SPX posted its largest weekly percentage gain since July, after major banks rounded out a strong start to Q3 earnings, though investors will stay on the lookout in the coming weeks for signs of impacts from supply chain disruptions and higher costs, especially for energy.
The benchmark index $SPX rallied +1.82% (+80.03 points), closing the week at 4,471 level. $SPX have broken out of all major moving averages (notably its 20D and 50D MA) on the final day of the the week, a second follow through price action after an imminent intraday reversal on Wednesday session.
The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,320 higher low support level, potentially re-establishing its mid-term uptrend channel.
Earnings
Dozens of companies will be reporting in the coming week, including Tesla ($TSLA), Intel ($INTC) and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), as the first major wave of third quarter earnings results gets underway.
On Thursday Netflix ($NFLX) kicks off third quarter reporting for the ‘FAANG’ group of U.S. tech giants Facebook ($FB), Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL).
The video streaming company said “Squid Game” has become its biggest series launch ever and Bloomberg reported that the megahit will create almost $900 million in value for Netflix.
Chinese GDP
In recent months the Chinese economy has taken a series of blows from the Evergrande-induced property market crisis, outbreaks of the delta variant, an energy crunch, supply bottlenecks and soaring commodity prices.
So, investors will be closely watching Monday’s Q3 GDP, which will be released alongside figures on factory production and retail sales. Economists are expecting growth in the world’s number two economy to have slowed to 5.2% year-on-year, the slowest in a year, from 7.9% in the previous quarter.
China’s real estate sector, a key driver of growth, is reeling from rising defaults, with sales tumbling and construction slowing as Evergrande, once China’s top-selling developer, battles against default on more than $300 billion in debts.
Bitcoin futures ETF
The first U.S.-listed bitcoin futures ETFs are set to launch in the coming week, barring a last-minute objection from the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The ProShares Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund is scheduled to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. A day later, the Invesco Bitcoin Strategy ETF, would also be allowed to launch unless the SEC blocks it.
The ETFs will be based on bitcoin futures that already trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rather than the cryptocurrency itself amid regulatory concerns over a potential lack of liquidity and the risk of price manipulation on spot exchanges.
The launch of the ETFs could pave the way for a stream of similar products, potentially fueling a run higher for the world’s largest digital currency which hit peaks of $62,892 on Friday, not far from its all-time highs of $64,778
$NFLXShares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) were up 4.8% as of 1:14 p.m EDT on Tuesday. The streaming media veteran saw a bullish earnings preview from analyst firm Cowen & Co., which included rosy results from Cowen's proprietary media viewership survey
In a third-quarter survey of 2,500 U.S. consumers, Cowen asked which media platform has the best video content right now.
Netflix led the pack with 28% of the vote, far ahead of YouTube's second-place tally of 15% and basic cable's third-place showing at 10%.
The "other" category, which includes social networks and various smaller video publishing platforms, added up to 13% of the vote.
Netflix was also found to be the leading service that consumers use most often for viewing videos, ahead of "other" platforms and basic cable.
This figure rose to 33% when zooming in on the important age group of 18- to 34-year-olds.
The stock reached another all-time high today, having posted a market-beating gain of 11% in the last three months.
Whether Netflix meets or misses Wall Street's expectations on Oct. 19, the stock is primed to make a big move on the news. Either way, Netflix remains one of my favorite stocks in the digital media space.
On the technical side of things Netflix is looking extremely bullish on the higher frames.
Breaking above previous resistance with a continuation up, I can’t see why this wouldn’t stop here.
It’s a little on the overbought side of things on the daily chart so could see slight pullbacks but overall should continue it’s way up.
MACD bullish.
RSI overbought.
Next point. $700
Watchlist this.
The Squid Game Shows Why Most People Don’t Make Money TradingSquid game is the hottest series on Netflix ($NFLX) right now, in which 456 players join a game of death, where they have a chance to win 456 Billion Korean Won (KRW), or 38.5 Milllion US Dollars.
What’s interesting about this series is that it depicts human sentiment in a very realistic way. We could see how market participants think and act by looking at the participants of the squid game.
A random guy appears at the subway station, and offers to play card flip, where he’d slap the player if he wins, and pay $100 if he loses. He actually ends up paying the players, stimulating their curiosity. Later, players are taken to a remote island where they have no clue what game they’re playing, with hopes of potentially winning life-changing money.
Beginners Luck turns to Attribution Bias
People who join the stock market are not different. They don’t know what game they’re playing, and what rules there are. Just as the subway guy invokes curiosity from the players by paying them small amounts of actual money, people are dragged into the stock market through stories of their friends and acquaintances making life-changing money by trading.
You try to remember the name of the stock or cryptocurrency your friend mentioned, and buy it without doing any due dilligence. You participate in the game of the market with 0 understanding of the game and rules.
When the stock/crypto you bought goes up (by chance), you fall into the trap of beginner’s luck. Beginner’s luck refers to a phenomenon or situation in which a beginner experiences a disproportionate ferquency of success against even experts in a certain field or activity. It’s often used in gambling and sports. But beginner’s luck leads to overconfidence and attribution bias.
Overconfidence refers to one’s excessive trust in his decisions based on gut-feeling and his cognitive abilities. This often leads to overtrading, and the market participant ends up paying excessive trading fees. Overconfident traders also tend to neglect statistics, and put all their eggs in one basket. They hardly listen to other people, and tend to choose the stocks/crypto they invest in themselves.
Attribution bias, or cognitive bias, is when people find reasons for their own and others’ behaviors. So when they’re in profit, they think that it’s all thanks to their amazing prediction. When they’re at a loss, it’s because the market was in an unfavorable situation, or simply because they were unlucky. Essentially, they constantly come up with excuses for every situation.
We all know Isaac Newton as a genius physicist, but he was a failure as an investor. He made the wrong investment decision when he invested in South Sea stocks, which led him to lose 20,000 pounds (about $4M today). He lost most of his life savings and famously said that “you can calculate the motions of heavenly stars, but not the madness of people” - a classic example of someone with attribution bias.
Mob Psychology and the Bandwagon Effect
This is accurately reflected in Squid Game. When players play ‘Red Light Green Light’, they are shocked to see other players get massacred. After the game is over, they later vote whether they want to continue playing the game or not. The surviving players fall into the trap of overconfidence and attribution bias.
Only 1 person out or 456 will survive and win the prize money. Statistically, every player has a 0.22% chance of survival. While this is statistically low, they’re taken away by the pile of cash hanging from the ceiling, and start believing that they’re special, and that they can win. Lotteries and gambling work in the same way, in which people bet on a probable case that is close to impossible. Sadly, most people approach trading like gambling.
In Squid Game, right before they play tug of war, a riot breaks out, and players are split into different factions. So when they’re told to team up for tug of war, teams are formed based on the factions that were formed the day before. This shows us mob psychology and the bandwagon effect.
Mob psychology, or mob mentaility, is when people follow the actions and behaviors of their peers when in large groups. The bandwagon effect falls within the scope of mob mentaility, and is a phenomenon in which people do something primarily because others are doing it , regardless of their own beliefs.
The same psychological phenomena can be applied to investors and traders in the market. Instead of trading based on their own trading rules, strategies, and analyses, they simply follow the actions of other market participants. These are the people who end up panic buying or selling, and falling victim to pump and dump schemes.
Conclusion
These psychological phenomena prevents us from making the right decisions in the market, and making the wrong decisions indicates that we lose money. Just like how most people in the Squid Game end up dying, there are many other people who entered the market with dreams of becoming a millionaire, only to lose everything. But unlike the Squid Game, the financial markets isn’t a winner-takes-all. If you can understand the characteristics and rules of each market, and do your due diligence on different ways to beat the market, you can have a statistical edge. As a trader, I would say that technical knowledge accounts to less than 5% of what it takes to be successful. It’s more about understanding your cognitive bias and controlling your emotions and psychological state.
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ROKUIF QQQ can comply and move forward higher ROKU can explode
Even with weakness though i believe the main leaders in tech currently would be ROKU / NFLX ..
NFLX does have upcoming ER so this could be reason as to why it's strong going into the new month while QQQ has been shaky and moving towards the downside. Expect ROKU and NFLX to continue with great strength and surprise.
IF Roku gets above 340 this opens the door to 370-420 range.
Monthly iTM calls could pay NICELY if we catch some steam on this one
LIS 316
Netflix Investment Outlook Assets move in 5 and 3's (Elliot wave simplified). From the macro view, it appears that we are in our 4th wave, and we have 1 more wave up to go. The leg of our bull pennant at minimum gives us a target of $681, which is confluent with the 1.146 fib.
If the stock market melts up and Netflix impulses, the Price target will be significantly higher!
Based on our Indicators, If the case is indeed bullish, we will bounce off the wolfpack baseline, and start another green streak. This leaves room for the RSI to go overbought one last time!
Overall, the chart is bullish, and a position should be taken once the breakout is confirmed. If a stock market crash was to occur, utilize the EMA's and support lines for positioning. The TA is overall optimistically favoring the long side!
NFLX ShortEntry price: 610-615$
Target price: 575-580$
Stop loss: 620-625$
Bollinger Bands: The price is approaching the upper band.
RSI: Indicator is approaching 70 level, therefore the market is near to be overbought.
Fibonacci Retracement: The price is approaching the resistance level (Fib 1.618 level).
Conclusions: Bollinger Bands and RSI suggest the trend reversal in the near future. Moreover, the price is approaching Fib resistance level, thus the short position is recommended with the stop loss above Fib 1.618 level.
No financial advice.
NFLX CALLS!!!! Looking here we see that NFLX bounced nicely right off the 9-day moving avg and is making a move towards resistance…
Now If we break resistance we are looking to take a pretty nice play in terms of options those premiums are a bit pricy but definitely worth it!
