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NFLX
NFLX - Netflix / Idea INetflix
12M: → Bullish close but truely bullish above 701
→ the grey zone being at → 633 – 585 (Fib ext.)
→ in case of a breakout 744 is target
3M: slightly less progress because of 701 Ath close by – traders will think about double top from here on
→ 701 showdown likely
Monthly: Bullish close but yet a bit hesitation going on here. Probably some profit taking going on.
3D: Ascending Triangle in play like in many other stocks – waiting game until a break occurs
thanks for reading, feedbacks appreciated
NETFLIX Retesting All-Time-High! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NETFLIX is trading in a
Strong uptrend but the
Stocks is now retesting
An all-time-high horizontal
Resistance level around 700$
From where we will be
Expecting a local bearish
Correction because the
Stocks is locally overbought
Sell!
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NFLX - Bullish NetflixNetflix is within this expanding structure looking to continue climbing
I expect a retest of the dashed white support line and then continuation up towards the top of this structure where I have point price labels.
Bars pattern is just an example of how this could occur.
Daily chart for NFLX
NFLX - Will NFLX drop to $500 and fill gap?NFLX - Netflix is looking like it will drop to near $500 and fill the previous price GAP. If this happens price will be about 40% away from all-time highs. This could be a much greater move when using Call Options. What are your thoughts on Netflix at this point?
Big Tech is nearly at All time High's. Just 3% away!It has doubled since the peak Recession fears of 2021
#BTC has also more than doubled
#SOL has 4 or 5 X'd
This chart is combined price chart of
#Googl
#Appl
#MSFT
#Amzn
#NVDA
#NFLX
#META
U can see the two head and shoulder tops in 2021
and also the inverse head and shoulders in 2022
The clean break and run.
And also the Bull Pennant which has already bullishly triggered 3 weeks ago.
From these levels if that Bull pennant target is to be met (log scale)
It seems this basket has another 30% move left in it.
#NETFLIX Could rip faces in a Reactionary RALLYAfter getting destroyed and dropping like a #Crypto
The chart has showed relative strength
and formed a Bullish CUP & HANDLE
Some stocks will probably not survive these market conditions in the next couple years, which is healthy
So look for signs of strength vs the broader market
$AAPL $181 Target by the end of the next 20 trading daysVery simple. 10D candles show practically the same thing. I guessed the run up, now let's get the run down. Pullback neccessaryfor higher prices come late summer before another pullback come mid August. MACD has bearish divergence and also hitting resistance. RSI making lower highs as well.
NETFLIX Bullish break-out eyeing $725.00Netflix (NFLX) has established trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), turning it into a Support following the rebound since May 01. With the long-term pattern since June 14 2022 being a Channel Up, similar bullish break-outs above the 1D MA50 (blue circles) have been the start of Bullish Legs.
Even the 1D RSI has been very consistent at identifying bottoms. The last two Bullish Legs topped after the price hit the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we remain bullish on NFLX, targeting $725.0 (the 1.786 Fibonacci).
Flashback to our previous idea:
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NFLX is at the support of the POC line LONGNFLX on a 120 minute chart currently has price sitting on the POC line confluent with the
Fibonacci 0.5 level on the previous trend up that was before the trend down from around
the time of an earnings beat which was a disappointment because traders somehow expected
better. There is been some disappointment about NFLX keeping some of its subscriber trends
private. Not a surprise. Price has put in somewhat of an inverse head and shoulders or triple
bottom. The Lux Algo forecasting indicator expects a move up. I will take a long trade here.
I believe that this is a buyable dip.
ROKU trade for upcoming earnings LONGROKU is here on a 15 minute chart. An anchored VWAP breakout from the lowermost bands
three days prior to earnings suggests to me a long trade through the earnings. The target
is on the chart as the recent high pivots and mean VWAP line. This is a swing trade of about
4-5 days expectant for a 6% gain and perhaps more with a call option trade to supplement
the shares.
Netflix Tanks 7.26% on Tepid Forecast, New Support on the WayNetflix Inc. ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) experienced a sharp decline in share value on Friday as a result of its weak revenue forecast and plans to discontinue reporting subscriber numbers by 2025. Despite an otherwise strong start to the year, Netflix's lackluster forecast led to a 7.6% decline in premarket trading in New York, marking the biggest decline since July 2023. While the company surpassed expectations for its first quarter, it indicated that it expects a slower pace of growth moving forward, with subscriber gains anticipated to be lower and revenue expected to increase by 16%.
Netflix's decision to cease reporting quarterly membership and revenue per subscriber metrics from the first quarter of next year has also generated concern among industry analysts. These metrics have long been the primary way in which Wall Street has assessed the company's performance, and as such, the decision may be met with resistance. Netflix has sought to shift the focus to traditional measures of performance, such as sales and profit, but management will continue to report significant subscriber milestones.
Despite a slowdown in 2021 and 2022, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) has experienced its fastest growth rate since the early days of the pandemic, largely due to its crackdown on account sharing. The company estimated that over 100 million people were using an account for which they did not pay, and by convincing these individuals to pay for access, Netflix has added 9.33 million customers in the first quarter of 2024, nearly doubling average analyst estimates of 4.84 million.
Netflix's strong slate of original programs has also contributed to its recent growth, with the company delivering a new hit every couple of weeks in 2024. The streaming service accounts for about 8% of TV viewing in the US and is a leading TV network in most of the world's major media markets. The company's recent performance has lifted its shares back toward record highs, giving it a market value of more than $260 billion.
While some analysts have raised concerns that Netflix is trading at a valuation that exceeds the fundamentals of the business, others have been impressed with the company's performance and have raised their price targets for investors. To sustain its growth in the future, Netflix has introduced a cheaper, advertising-supported version of its service targeting cost-conscious customers and has invested in live programming, including stand-up specials, wrestling, and an upcoming boxing match. The company has also reported that approximately 40% of its new customers are selecting the advertising option in markets where it is available, although the advertising tier remains small in comparison to online video giants like YouTube.
Technical Outlook
Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) stock has broken the ceiling of the rising trend channel on the verge of reaching a new support level at the $504 Pivot point. The stock is trading with a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 25.75 indicating NASDAQ:NFLX stock is in the oversold territory. Traders need to be careful incase of a trend reversal after reaching the new support zone.
NFLX Netflix Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't entered NFLX in the buying zone:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NFLX Netflix prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 607.50usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $26.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Netflix Faces Subscriber Growth Challenge Netflix has consistently set benchmarks and pushed boundaries. However, as the company gears up to report its earnings, a closer look reveals a nuanced landscape where subscriber growth is no longer a foregone conclusion. The once-lauded crackdown on password sharing, while initially boosting numbers, now presents a plateauing challenge. With the fervor of the pandemic waning, Netflix must navigate through shifting tides to sustain its momentum.
The Password-Sharing Conundrum
Netflix's recent surge in subscriber numbers was partly fueled by its global crackdown on password sharing. Yet, analysts warn that the euphoria from this initiative might be waning, especially in mature markets like the United States. While the crackdown may still yield results in burgeoning markets like India, it's evident that Netflix needs more than a singular strategy to fuel growth.
Diversification Beyond Traditional Models
In a bid to diversify revenue streams and cater to a wider audience, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) has ventured into an ad-supported tier. With over 23 million monthly subscribers already onboard, this move marks a significant shift in its business model. Analysts predict that the ad-supported tier could play a pivotal role in mitigating churn and bolstering revenue in the years to come. Moreover, recent price hikes in premium plans could further incentivize users to opt for the ad-supported model, driving up average revenue per user.
Strategic Content Investment
Netflix's commitment to content remains unwavering, with projected investments reaching as high as $17 billion this year. Unlike its competitors, who are trimming content budgets to achieve profitability, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) is doubling down on its content strategy. By retaining a flat spending trajectory, Netflix has managed to attract subscribers while securing rights to coveted content. The recent trend of competitors selling exclusive content to Netflix not only reduces churn but also underscores the company's dominance in the streaming arena.
Sports Entertainment: A New Frontier
In a strategic move to diversify its content portfolio, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) has entered the realm of sports entertainment. The recent deal with World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) signals Netflix's intent to tap into the lucrative sports entertainment market without bearing the exorbitant costs associated with traditional sports rights. By acquiring WWE's flagship program, "Raw," Netflix aims to leverage the inherent stickiness of sports content while aligning with its ethos of entertainment-centric programming.
Conclusion:
As Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) prepares to unveil its earnings report, the spotlight shines on its ability to innovate and adapt in a rapidly evolving landscape. While challenges loom, from plateauing subscriber growth to intensifying competition, Netflix's strategic diversification and unwavering commitment to content position it as a formidable force in the streaming industry. By embracing change, seizing opportunities, and staying true to its vision, Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) charts a course towards sustained growth and continued relevance in the ever-expanding world of streaming.
Netflix Q124 earnings preview – subscribing to volatility Release time – Thursday on the market close (6 am AEST / 9 pm UK time)
Netflix is one of the preeminent trading stocks - where we often see big movement, a high propensity to trend and sizeable intraday high-low daily ranges that can appeal to the day traders.
With Q124 earnings due on Thursday and the possibility of another sizeable price catalyst, Netflix is a stock that should be on the radar.
Netflix is already something of a market darling, where the share price has significantly outperformed the S&P500 by 19.6 percentage points over the last 3 months and by some 51.7 percentage points over six months.
Going into this earnings release, with price having recently traded to a multi-year high of $639, we now see consolidation with price tracking a range of $639 to $600, and importantly holding above the 50-day MA ($601.12), which has been a solid trend filter since October.
We can see the Bollinger Bands tightening up into Q1 earnings as price moves remain contained to the 20-day MA, and traders refrain from taking risks until the facts are known. A daily close above/below the bands and/or the recent trading range could be meaningful and could suggest a higher probability that we see a trend develop, which could be a compelling hunting ground for more momentum-styled traders.
Earnings pedigree
Netflix does have a strong pedigree at earnings, having beaten consensus expectations in 7 of the past 8 quarterly earnings reports. Many will also recall the Q423 earnings report where NFLX added 13.1m paid streaming subscribers, a number well above expectations and subsequently, the shares rallied strongly.
NFLX has a history of pronounced movement on earnings, with double-digit percentage moves in the prior 2 reporting quarters (on the day of earnings) and taking the period out the absolute move has averaged -/+ 12.8%. Being able to capture that movement in the post-market session is important for traders, and despite a potentially fast-moving market, there should be ample liquidity.
By way of expectations of price movement for this earnings report, we can look at the options market and asses the implied move on the day of earnings, which now currently stands at -/+ 8.1%.
This level of implied volatility speaks to the view that we could easily see movement in the share price once the earnings and guidance are known and could offer opportunity, but it is also a risk that those with existing positions may need to manage.
What to watch this time around?
For CFD traders going through the finer details of cash flow, subscribers’ numbers and sales growth seems a tough proposition. This is why most will let the market tell them how they feel about the shape of the business, and dynamically react to the ensuing price action.
However, by way of a kicker, the likely overriding driver will be quarterly subscriber adds and any guidance for Q224 subscribers. The consensus (from investment bank analysts) is for 4.77m net subscriber adds in Q1, with 3.7m pencilled in Q2. The view on the street is this is a low-ball call – which won’t surprise given NFLX have beaten consensus expectations for sub growth for three quarters in a row - and investors are positioned for a number closer to 7m, even 8m.
On headline Q1 earnings estimates, the consensus view is we for:
Earnings per share (EPS) - $4.54 (Q224 estimates $4.55)
Revenue - $9.264b (Q224 estimates $9.50b)
Free cash flow - $1.89b (Q224 estimates $1.50b)
There will be a focus on the crackdown on password sharing and how that is impacting earnings, competition, ad-supported tier, and commentary on unique programming.
The consensus 12-month price target for NFLX is $626, so I question if there is scope for a solid earnings re-rating, which could see these targets revised higher. That said, price targets are largely irrelevant for traders, and price will react far quicker than any analyst can change their models. The market will let us know about the earnings and the operating environment and the price could see some outsized moves – one to put on the radar.
NFLX set up for a dip buy before the next earnings LONGNFLX has added 20% to price in the two months since the last earnings which were decent
but not remarkable. The 2H chart shows a dip of about $20 per share coincident with a fall
from the second upper VWAP line to support from the first upper VWAP line. The zero lag
MACD shows line rising over the horizontal zero level in perhaps a sign of bullish divergence.
The lines are now over the low amplitude histogram. I will take a long trade here targeting
$650. Recent news is the CEO sold 20,000 shares out of the 12,000,000 that he has control
of. Nothing unusual there. His friends and others ( myself included) may be buying the dip.
Netflix : Is a Major Market Correction coming? 📉Following our last analysis, Netflix has precisely achieved the forecasted targets, with the wave ((iii)) extending to 227 to 261%. This suggests that a correction towards wave ((iv)) might be imminent, expected to range between 38% and 61.8%, thus laying the groundwork for a wave 5 and the culmination of a significant cycle in the form of a potential wave (2).
A closer examination of the daily chart reinforces our primary scenario: the completion of Wave II at the low of $162.80. We are currently in the process of developing Wave (1), followed by Wave (2), and so forth.
In our alternative scenario, we consider the possibility of a Regular Flat, especially when analyzing the complex correction currently unfolding. This might indicate that rather than concluding Wave (2) at $162.80, it was actually Wave (A), and we are now witnessing Wave (B) achieving exactly 100% of Wave I. Such alignment could signal a 5-wave decline towards a double bottom, marking a significant correction of 70%.
While such a correction would be substantial, it is essential to explore all scenarios to be prepared for any market developments. Despite the potential for a significant pullback, our underlying outlook remains optimistic, expecting a continued upward momentum for Netflix.
Can ROKU run before earnings? LONGROKU on a daily chart is sitting on support in consolidation since the trend down after the
last earnings report. In three weeks there will be another report. The prior report showed
negative earnings but it did beat the estimates while revenues were a mild surprise. I expect
ROKU has done some belt trimming to try to get expenses decreased while growing revenues.
My long trade here is from thin support but targets the Fibonacci level of a retracement
back to recent high pivots. The target is 80 representing 30% upside. A stop loss will be
initially set at 61 but then raised 3.5% every time price rises 3% to gradually tighten it.
I will take a good part of the hopeful profits off the table a few days before the upcoming
report.