Netflix's Legal Triumph and Ad-Driven Ascension
In a recent legal showdown, streaming giant Netflix emerged victorious in a California federal court, successfully defeating a shareholder lawsuit that accused the company of concealing the impact of account-sharing on its growth trajectory. The lawsuit, filed by a Texas-based investment trust in May 2022, sought damages for investors who purchased Netflix shares between January 2021 and April 2022. Despite the significant blow to the stock value and a subsequent drop in subscribers, U.S. District Judge Jon Tigar ruled that the plaintiffs failed to provide evidence supporting their claims.
Legal Victory and Investor Response:
The judge's decision, delivered on Friday, underscores the importance of substantiated claims in legal battles. While Netflix shares initially faced a downturn, losing a third of their value, the ruling has provided a reprieve for the streaming giant. The door, however, remains open for the investors to refile the lawsuit if they can bolster their claims with additional facts.
Netflix's Stock Rollercoaster:
The legal victory is just one chapter in Netflix's rollercoaster journey in the stock market. Between January and April 2022, the company's shares experienced a drastic decline of around 50%. The drop was triggered by revelations that account-sharing and increased competition had hindered new subscriptions. Former CEO Reed Hastings attributed some of the challenges to the complexities of interpreting subscription trends amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Ad-Supported Triumph:
Amidst the stock market turbulence, Netflix is finding success in an unexpected corner—the ad-supported realm. Recent reports indicate that Netflix's ad-based plan has surged, surpassing 23 million global monthly active users. This substantial growth, revealed by President of Advertising Amy Reinhard at the Variety Entertainment Summit at CES 2024, marks a notable increase from the reported 15 million users just over two months ago.
Engaging the Audience:
Reinhard emphasized the robust engagement levels among users on ad-supported plans, with a staggering 85% streaming on the platform for more than two hours daily. This data suggests that the ad-supported model is resonating well with Netflix's audience, providing a fresh perspective on the evolving dynamics of streaming preferences.
Pricing Strategy and Market Penetration:
Netflix's pricing strategy for its ad-supported plan is noteworthy, with the Basic With Ads plan priced at $6.99 per month in the United States—less than half the cost of the Standard plan at $15.49 per month. This strategic pricing could be a key factor in attracting a broader audience to the ad-supported tier, as ad-tier subscriptions reportedly account for approximately 30% of all new signups in the 12 countries where the platform has been launched.
Microsoft Partnership and Technological Advancements:
Netflix's success in the ad-supported arena is further amplified by its ad-tech deal with Microsoft. The partnership designates Microsoft as Netflix's global advertising technology and sales partner, playing a pivotal role in the triumph of Netflix's advertising strategy and technology infrastructure.
Conclusion:
As Netflix navigates legal challenges and charts a new course in the ad-supported landscape, the streaming giant continues to demonstrate resilience and innovation. The legal victory provides a foundation for future endeavors, while the surge in ad-supported subscriptions showcases Netflix's adaptability in meeting evolving consumer demands. The company's strategic pricing, coupled with a robust technological infrastructure, positions it for continued success in an ever-changing streaming landscape.
NFLX
✨❄️🌟 The Tutorial How-To Find a Magic on TradingViewFinancial markets just finished its memorial 2023.
Whatever the numbers at the “Closing bell”, on your monitors and in your portfolios, there is no doubt that 2023 year’s Santa Rally will go down in history as one of the most outstanding in many years.
In November and December, 2023 the U.S. stock market was rallying for the 9th consecutive week in a row.
This was the longest ever upside streak in SP:SPX over the past 20 years, since the fourth quarter of 2003.
Well.. just try to answer what happened with the market the past one time.
Happy New 2024 Year!
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NETFLIX: This rebound isn't a buy opportunity.NFLX is staging a rebound on the 1D MA50 on a marginally bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.295, MACD = 4.710, ADX = 36.125). We don't consider this a buy opportunity as even if a slightly HH is made, the 1D RSI is showing a Bearish Divergence on a Channel Down, the same kind of bearish pattern that started the bearish waves in the two HH prior. Consequeantly we expect a pullback to at least the bottom of the Channel Up (dashed) or the HL trendline (which will be -25.25% from the top) depending on when the 1D RSI crosses under the 30.000 level (oversold), which was the buy trigger on the last two bottom opportunities. We have a long term TP = 550.00.
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Netflix in large Cup and Handle PatternNetflix appears to me to be completing a large cup and handle pattern. The initial peak of the cup appears at a price level of about $485 while the base appears to be at a low of $345. This price difference is $140, so I suggest the possibility that a new price target for NFLX should be at $625.
The handle has just been broken in the upward price direction and I am trading this to that price target unless invalidation occurs. I am watching for the stock price to hold the $485 support that was once previously a resistance to confirm the trend and avoid invalidating the technical formation.
NETFLIX Expect this rally to be extended.Almost a month ago (October 31) we gave a strong buy signal (chart below) on Netflix (NFLX) with the price reacting immediately having entered a non-stop rise:
Due to the sheer aggression of the current bullish leg of the Megaphone as compared to its previous ones though, we have to downgrade our medium-term target to $580, which will make a perfect +69.30% rise from the bottom as the July 18 High. Their RSI patterns are quite similar, though obvious that the current is more aggressive, hence will correct equally aggressively at some point, probably early-mid January 2024.
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NFLX ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:NFLX chart mapping/analysis.
Bullish recovery back into ascending parallel channel (green).
Bull target(s)
Breakout descending parallel channel (white) + descending trend-line confluence resistance
Overhead gap fills (~470 / ~506.93 / ~566.88)
Golden Pocket Fib + gap fill (~506.93) confluence resistance zone
Bear target(s)
Underlying gap fills (~412.52 / ~354.79 / ~341.38)
Ascending trend-line support (light blue dotted)
38.2% Fib
23.6% Fib
Is Netflix Stock A Buy After Third-Quarter ReportsInternet television network Netflix (NFLX) has a commanding lead in the streaming video market but its growth has slowed. NFLX stock cratered in 2022 after the company reported two straight quarters of subscriber declines. However, after a corporate course correction, some people might be wondering: Is Netflix stock a buy right now?
Subscriber Growth Drives Netflix Story
Netflix stock has benefited from the cord-cutting trend as people quit traditional pay-TV services.
Over the last several years, Netflix has been laser-focused on growing its global subscriber base. It wants to build a competitive moat with scale. It has been investing heavily in local-language original content production worldwide. Netflix stock performance is linked to its net subscriber additions.
But Netflix stock tumbled 51% in 2022 as subscriber growth stalled. Growth has rebounded in 2023 thanks to the addition of a lower-cost, advertising-supported service as well as a crackdown on unpaid account sharing.
In the third quarter, Netflix added 8.76 million subscribers worldwide, vs. forecasts for 6.06 million. It ended the third quarter with 247.15 million subscribers worldwide.
Netflix also announced price increases for its ad-free service plans in the U.S., U.K. and France.
Netflix stock soared 16.1% on the first trading day after it posted third-quarter results late Oct. 18.
Netflix Stock Fundamental Analysis
In the September quarter, Netflix earned $3.73 a share on sales of $8.54 billion. Analysts had called for earnings of $3.49 a share on sales of $8.54 billion. On a year-over-year basis, Netflix earnings rose 20% while sales climbed 8%.
However, Netflix's financial guidance for the fourth quarter was a tad below Wall Street's targets.
For the current quarter, Netflix predicted earnings of $2.15 a share on sales of $8.69 billion. Analysts had been looking for earnings of $2.17 a share on sales of $8.78 billion in the fourth quarter. In the year-earlier period, Netflix earned 12 cents a share on sales of $7.85 billion.
After a humbling performance in 2022, Netflix says it is focused on profitability. It also is targeting increased revenue with a lower-priced, advertising-supported service tier. Plus, it is looking to monetize rampant account sharing on the service and turn freeloaders into paying customers.
The next major catalyst for Netflix stock could be the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, due in late January.
Netflix Content Draws Subscribers
Since it started its original content push, Netflix has launched quite a few hit shows. They include "Stranger Things," "Squid Game," "Wednesday," "Ozark" and "Bridgerton."
It also has premiered popular original movies such as "Bird Box," "Extraction," "Murder Mystery," "The Old Guard" and "Red Notice."
Recent buzzworthy shows on Netflix include TV series "One Piece," "FUBAR" and "The Fall of the House of Usher." Popular new original movies include action films "The Mother" and "Extraction 2" and comedy "You People."
Meanwhile, Netflix is facing competition from traditional media companies. Max from Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) launched in May 2023. Paramount Global (PARA) debuted Paramount+ in March 2021. Comcast (CMCSA)-owned NBCUniversal launched Peacock in July 2020.
Other services include Amazon (AMZN) Prime Video, Apple's (AAPL) Apple TV+, Walt Disney's (DIS) Disney+, Hulu and more.
Netflix Enters Video Game Market
To create a stickier service, Netflix added mobile video games as part of its subscription offering in November 2021. Subscribers can play the games on Android and Apple iOS smartphones and tablets.
Since September 2021, Netflix has purchased four game studios. It bought Night School Studio, Next Games, Boss Fight Entertainment and Spry Fox. It also has opened two new game studios.
Netflix currently offers about 80 games to subscribers. They include action, arcade, puzzle, racing, sports and casino games.
Netflix Stock Technical Analysis
On May 18, Netflix stock broke out of a cup-with-handle base at a buy point of 349.80. It climbed as high as 485 on July 19 before pulling back. Netflix hit its record high of 700.99 in November 2021.
Price Momentum
NFLX is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Netflix Surges 28% Since Q3 EarningsNetflix's stock in 2021 has been a rollercoaster, starting with a strong 62% rise by July, nearing the $500 mark, before experiencing a sharp downturn. The stock fell below the crucial 200-day moving average to around $370, marking a significant 28% drop, but found some support at the weekly 50-day average near $350.
The Q3 earnings report was a turning point, with actual earnings of $3.73 surpassing the estimated $3.49. This led to a positive market reaction, with the stock opening 16% higher post-announcement and climbing 28% since then. The surge in earnings was primarily due to robust subscriber growth, a key indicator of the company's future financial health and stock potential.
Looking ahead, Netflix faces major resistance levels, first at the $500 psychological mark, and then at last year's high of $609. Overcoming these barriers could signal further bullish trends. As of November, the stock is showing strong performance with an 8% increase, adding to the positive outlook among investors.
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NETFLIX SHORT?NFLX short - take profit before earnings?
I shorted Netflix at $430. Up 20% on the position. Take profit before earnings tomorrow? What's your opinion on NFLX? Bear or bull? The mainstream media seems quite ambiguous ahead of earnings.
I took a lot of profit this year so I thought about sitting on it until next year. But I could also dump some of my NVDA short (325 avg) that I got over my head on.
this is not a financial advice.
Trade at your own risk.
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Apple - Sick Fundamentals Mean a New All Time HighI have recent calls on the SPX
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
The Nasdaq
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
SPY
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?
And Tesla
Tesla - Remember, The Ponzi Always Continues
Which generally have a bullish-into-year-end thesis accompanying them, but caution that an October bottom for the second year in a row and a mega three day rally to start November may be something of a trap.
When it comes to Apple, we have reservations that we topped under $200, for really obvious reasons, especially considering that on the monthly, the last three months of bearish price action haven't been that bearish.
Yet, because the weekly shows us that there are two bars under $150 and $140 from last year that never printed a low, that those areas are probably protected until Apple starts to seriously deflate and enter an end-of-life cycle bear market.
If Apple is going to enter an end of life cycle bear market, the MMs will 100% take out the $200 range and sell everything there first.
So, fundamentally, why would Apple be at the end of its life? The answer is simple: the company, all these years, wed itself to the Chinese Communist Party, which is the scourge of humanity, The Beast, and the benefactor to Babylon (Shanghai).
There's lots of really horrific data involving Apple numbers and the Chinese market right now, and the CCP under Xi Jinping is also rushing to replace other phone companies with domestic product, like the notorious Huawei.
The elephant in the room when it comes to cellular and computer purchases in China is that they're down because there are less people in China as a result of the enormous damage the novel pneumonia pandemic that originated in Wuhan City has caused.
SARS 1 in 2003 was covered up by the Party. The CCP made it seem like only a few thousand people died, when in reality, some accounts have stated that several million people died.
Today, the Party still claims that less than 122,000 people died from COVID-19, despite China being the epicentre of the disease.
You don't need an expert, or even a calculator, to figure out what's really going on and why the Chinese economy is in trouble.
What's at stake for Xi and his faction is the 24-year-long organ harvesting genocide and persecution against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
Although Xi has not participated in the persecution, and has, to the contrary, been killing via his Anti-corruption Campaign the Jiang Zemin faction who started and maintained the persecution all these years, the problem is that Xi is the head of the Party.
When you kill a dragon, you decapitate it. But first, you start with its tail. And it's telling that former Premier Li Keqiang died a few weeks ago, merely in his 60s, at the hands of "an heart attack."
So the fundamentals on Apple are bad because of China. So, with great faith in the principle of reversed logic, we actually look for longs with the chance to sell over $200.
But the charts, as they stand, are not giving us a long signal.
Everything, including Apple, bounced so hard in the first three days of November, and for Apple this came on the back of an earnings report, that we have to view the situation with major reservations, expecting that the candle painting of the low for the monthly bar has not yet been completed.
Last October, Apple pretended to bottom, pretended to double bottom in November, and then gave it all back and set the low of the year at the end of 2022, and all of this happened while the indexes had properly bottomed in October.
There was none of that "Magnificent 7" talk back then.
So, how to trade this? I think it's wiser to go long on a breakout over $183 in a size that allows you to take partials at $198, $205, and $215 than it is to have bought in the last three days.
And if we do dump, where we're looking for reversal patterns is at or below the April of 2022 low at $159.80~.
But if we're about to moon for manipulation, we're actually likely to see a sweep just below the current November low of $167.90.
So long as you can buy there without getting expired worthless on some short dated options, you'll have the best chance to ride the manipulation wave.
But be careful. When it's time for the CCP to fall, all the bigger dominoes go with it, because they're all really lesser dominoes.
Gap down overnight because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan means margin calls that scale in brutality, because Wall Street won't be in the mood to go risk on anything ever again.
Nor will it have the money or the breath to.
NETFLIX Can it realistically reach $600 in this environment?Netflix (NFLX) has established itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the aggressive price jump of October 19 on its bullish earnings. Still, the price is failing to break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the blue Channel Down and technically the longer it fails to do so, the higher the chances become of a rejection. Until that happens, we can see that during similar 1D MA50 consolidations after price jumps in the recent past, Netflix rallied more. Now it has the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) as its long-term Support, hence a potential new rally can be even stronger.
The previous 3 medium-term rallies have hit (or marginally missed) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so that is our target in case the price breaks above the top of the Channel Down. $600 is technically fair as it is on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Bullish Megaphone. Time-wise, this target is achievable by January 2024 as this is what the Sine Waves suggest. As you can see all 3 previous Higher Highs have been within the peak spectrum of the Sine Wave.
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Netflix Surges 16% Post Earnings!Netflix's stock surged 16% due to a 70% spike in subscribers for its new ad-supported tier, adding over 8 million users.
This pushed the global subscriber count to 247 million, marking the largest growth since Q2 2020, a period influenced by pandemic-driven home entertainment demand.
Financially, Q3 earnings exceeded expectations: projected at $3.49, they reached $3.73.
Although the stock previously neared a concerning $300, positive earnings pushed it back up past the $400 level.
Yet, a challenge remains: breaking the $423 resistance level from June 2018.
Still, with a 7% rise in October and a 37% annual increase, the outlook remains optimistic.
Positive Earnings Gaps Seldom Fill: NFLXTo follow up on my analysis of NFLX from Wednesday ...
Despite the market moodiness and selling, NASDAQ:NFLX reported well above estimates.
HFTs triggered a huge gap up on heavy pre-open order flow yesterday. Volume was also huge, so smaller funds' VWAPs triggered and retail traders chased the stock while Pro Traders and HFTs made some big profits.
Gaps up on positive earnings seldom fill completely. There is a strong support level at $350 which the gap up now confirms.
NETFLIX Up +18% today, sending a message to the market.Netflix made a huge price jump today, opening on the MA50 (1d) for the first time in more than 1 month.
It remains under the Falling Resistance, but held the Rising Support trend lines of the Bullish Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses over the Falling Resistance or if it hits the MA200 (1d) again.
Targets:
1. 508.45 (January 20th 2020 gap).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) made a huge oversold jump. Similar jumps can be seen on March 9th 2023 and May 9th 2022, both market bottoms.
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NFLX Price Soars 12% after Strong ReportYesterday's closing price was 345.83, but this morning, NFLX's price rose above USD 390 per share in premarket trading. The reason is a strong report:
→ earnings per share = USD 3.73, expected = USD 3.49;
→ revenue = USD 8.54 billion, a year ago = USD 7.9 billion.
→ the main surprise is that the number of subscribers grew by an impressive 8.76 million in the third quarter (about 6 million were expected). The number of subscribers worldwide is approaching 250 million.
Given the increase in demand for its service, Netflix has decided to raise the price of its basic plan in the US to USD 11.99 per month from USD 9.99, and raise the price of its premium subscription to USD 22.99 per month from USD 19.99. This could attract more earnings per share in the future, which is what has helped NFLX's price soar.
From the technical analysis point of view:
→ NFLX price returns to the ascending channel that was in effect in 2023 and seems to be becoming relevant again. The false breakout pattern could become a support zone in the future.
→ NFLX price exceeded USD 370 per share.
Since early September, NFLX has been a laggard in the NASDAQ index, but after the report it may become one of the leaders. "While we have much work to do to build out this business, we're making good progress and laying the foundation for what we believe should be a multibillion-dollar revenue stream over time," Netflix executives wrote in a letter to shareholders.
Resistance to a powerful bullish impulse may come from:
→ psychological level of USD 400;
→ level at USD 412 – during the summer, the level provided support. But it was broken on September 13-14, and with a bearish gap, which could slow down the rally if the price of NFLX reaches this level. Also note that here is the Fibo resistance level of 50% of the decline A→B.
According to TipRanks, analysts have a target price of USD 454 for NFLX, but given its recent performance, the forecast could be raised.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NFLX Falling into a Dark Pool Buy Zone?While we all wait on the highly anticipated NASDAQ:NFLX earnings report at the close today, let's study the weekly chart to study the downside potential since the stock gapped down today on expectations of a weak report.
Netflix’s percentage of shares held by institutions has recovered to a respectable 79%, which is more consistent with a company that is in favor with the Buy Side Institutions. There has been accumulation going on since the lows of 2022.
Selling Short is problematic due to the support levels not far down from the current price and the risk of a hidden Dark Pool Buy Zone starting at the highs of the U-shaped bottom formation.
The current run down is at a technical support level, which is where pro traders often nudge the price to trigger HFTs. Beware of the risk of an extreme reaction at the open tomorrow. During earnings season with a report at the close, pro traders often take profits either in the final minutes of the day to avoid the risk of a surprise, or shortly after the open to capitalize on the reaction to the report.
NETFLIX: Buy opportunity on a 4 month stretch.NFLX is trying to find support on the 1D MA200, which is at the bottom of a (longer than a year) Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D technical outlook is red (RSI = 36.027, MACD = -9.900, ADX = 36.923) signifying considerable upside potential and the rebound on the 30.00 oversold RSI level indicates the reversing momentum. We expect an immediate rally as part of the new bullish leg that will target the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 585.00).
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Netflix - Come in...the water is fineWe dived below the Center-Line.
This is the time for a short, not when it's down at the Lower Medianline Parallel. Because there are lurking Creatures you don't want to meet.
My stop would be above the CL test high.
Keep in mind that earnings are coming out soon. So mybe give yourself time and trade it with an Options Strategy?
Gone for a swim...the water is fine §8-)