NFLX Watching for another BreakoutNFLX gapped up on the morning of 5/18 with high momentum and a volume spike both of
which faded by mid-day shown on this 15- minute chart. Since then price has been in a narrow
consolidation range centered about the POC line of the multisession volume profile. Price is
in the fair value area between the mean anchored VWAP and the +1 STD band. The zero lag
MACD is confirmatory for a trend resting in consolidation
I will watch for green candles in a row with the second having more range than the first. I will
check to see if the relative volume is 2X the running mean. If so, I will enter and try to get
the early breakout. Stop loss will be $365 below the POC line. I will exit upon seeing upper
wicks and volume falling back down to the mean. My expectation is for a quick 3 to 5 percent
trade with a R:R of better than 10:!.
NFLX
A complete analysis of the Netflix stockThe stock descended in wave A, a strong decline, and the rebound was in wave B, and it is possible that wave C will complete a strong five-way decline to retest the bottom of wave A or go a little deeper below, and thus a triple decline will be completed, and then prepare for the rise of a new impulse and make a larger historical peak
Note.. The scenario fails if the price closes above the $460 area
2000 vs 2020 Tech crashesQCOM was the hottest stock of 1999, and had a similar fall from grace as the biggest tech names of the time, if not faster. Some of the top tech stocks by market cap were: MSFT, CSCO, INTC & IBM
I believe in a 2-3 year bear market, but we are pretty close to 2000 levels in a lot of major Tech stocks already. A lot of people wanna sell it to the floor as fast as possible, but that's not what the bear market really looks like. It's the white box.
NFLX breakout daily and 1hr chartNFLX daily and hourly
Top watch going into the week. Daily 9/21EMAs crossed and we broke out of this trendline with an explosive move outside the upper Bollinger band. Ideally, I would like a pullback to the trendline or breakout zone between 332.5-334.5. I've also got my eye on 336.5 level on the hourly chart for a possible intraday setup, but I'd rather bounce it down at key support level. Leaning long on it this week. Once this stock gains momentum it moves very quickly, don't fight the trend.
NFLX long ideaNFLX daily and hourly
Top watch for me tomorrow. Daily 9/21EMAs crossing, wick down to support, and closing outside of the downward trendline. Leaning long on this. Watching how Disney moves to earnings tomorrow might affect the way NFLX moves. Looking for 334-334.5 zone to hold as support and launch this thing. Under 330 I think we revisit the daily EMAS 327-328 area.
Institutions are dumping NFLX within an apparent diamond patternI spotted this diamond a year ago after the earnings panic.
Since then, I realised that institutions have been dumping Netflix at a prodigious rate.
In fact, NFLX has gone from nearly 100% institutional ownership, down to 74% institutional ownership in around 15 months.
This translates to institutions performing a dump of just over 1.5% of institutional holdings every month on average.
I think this short has a lot of potential if I am correct about the diamond pattern and it's clear that the catalyst is going to be institutional deleveraging.
What I'm looking for to confirm this trade is an ABC move up.
That is to say, the dump back in October Q4 was an A wave down, we are now in a B wave (that subdivides into a smaller ABC move up) and confirmation of this trade will mean that we complete the ABC I have sketched out (zig zag pattern) up to roughly around the 400 range.
An ABC up in this manner means we have a B wave with a C wave decline yet to materialise and it's the C wave we should aim to capture with a short.
I consider this quite a long-term outline and I don't envision this C wave to materialise until next year.
My suspicion, is that NFLX is being harmed by the streaming explosion that has resulted in a massive influx of very aggressive competitors. I think that the password-sharing crackdown will ultimately do more harm than good and do nothing to help their earnings.
So, I'm not saying get in on this now, but the basic premise here is to wait to see if the ABC zig-zag upmove (representing a cyclical B wave) materialises. If it does, I consider NFLX could be an excellent short.
NFLX daily and hourly chartsLevels I am watching to trade options with tomorrow. NFLX daily and hourly charts.
Top watch for me tomorrow, I'm leaning long for day 2 continuation breaking out of this pattern on the daily. Watching this bull flag set up on the hourly chart for a nice move. We have room to push 334.5 and 338. Also watching 328 and 324.5 support zones for a bounce if the flag turns out to be a failed breakout.
NFLX daily chart neutral bias.A couple levels I'm watching for this week. Looking bearish on the daily rejecting off the
21EMA with a long wick after earnings miss and the EMAS are about to cross. However, on the weekly chart we have a hammer candle with a nice wick down to the 21EMA and bounce back up to the 9EMA. Will be looking to play this either way. 319 is a big support zone to watch, a break could lead to a retest of the lower trendline around 300 level. ALSO watching 331 resistance level to play off of. Break of this level could lead to a retest of the upper flag trendline 340 area.
$SNOW Setting up It is essential to exercise patience and caution in your trading strategies. One such approach is to **allow the market price to come to you, instead of chasing after it impulsively.**
In the case of NYSE:SNOW ,
**puts below the 135 zone
and
calls above the 148 zone.**
However, it is imperative to exercise restraint and not rush into any day trades or swings without proper candlestick confirmation. (1-3)
It is crucial to note that impulsive trading decisions can lead to costly mistakes and result in unnecessary losses. As a trader, you must have a clear understanding of the market trends, indicators, and risk management techniques. Patience and discipline are the keys to success in the trading game, and it is essential to develop and maintain these qualities.
Additionally, having a solid trading plan in place and sticking to it can help you stay focused and avoid making impulsive decisions. This includes having well-defined entry and exit points, stop loss orders, and profit targets based on your analysis and risk tolerance.
Remember, trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme, but a long-term game of skill and strategy. With the right approach, mindset, and tools, you can become a successful trader and achieve your financial goals. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and stay focused on your trading plan, and success will surely follow.
Netflix dumps and pumps after earningsYesterday, after the market close, Netflix reported its earnings for the 1st quarter of 2023. The tech giant missed analysts’ expectations, resulting in a quick and sharp selloff of nearly 12%. However, this move lasted only three minutes before the price started reversing to the upside. Within the next hour, shares erased all of their early losses.
The company posted $1.305 billion in net income, showing a decline of 18.3% YoY (in 4Q22, Netflix reported a net income of only $55.284 million). Revenue stood at $8.161 billion, up approximately 3.7% YoY and 4% QoQ. Operating income fell by 13% YoY. In addition to that, the average paid memberships rose by 4% YoY, with the company reaching 232.50 million global streaming paid memberships.
In 1Q23, Netflix launched paid sharing in four countries, and in the second quarter of 2023, the company plans to expand this service into more countries, including the USA. Furthermore, Netflix seeks to improve its revenue from advertisements and currency operations. For 2Q23, Netflix forecasts revenue of $8.2 billion, representing a 3% increase YoY. The company also expects to return $1.6 billion in operating income for the same period. Netflix shares are up approximately 105% since their low in May 2022 and about 16.5% year-to-date.
Other important information
The company’s operating income declined for four consecutive months in 2022 - 1.972$ billion in 1Q22, 1.578$ billion in 2Q22, 1.533$ billion in 3Q22, and 550$ million in 4Q22. The same applies to the net income in 2022 - 1.597$ in 1Q22, 1.441$ billion in 2Q22, 1.398$ billion in 3Q22, and 55$ million in 4Q22. In the first quarter of 2023, Netflix saw a significant rebound in both of these metrics.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the 1-minute chart of Netflix stock. The yellow arrow indicates market close, which coincided with the release of the company’s financial results. Within the first three minutes following the announcement, shares dropped nearly 12% before erasing all losses.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Netflix stock. Yellow arrows indicate previous earnings, which were accompanied by a similar negative reaction in the price of shares.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
$QQQ & Big Tech $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT Future Direction at Resistance- NASDAQ:QQQ gap up double rejection from premarket highs and bear took over first hour then complete sideways into end of day
- NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMZN all rejection from resistance today. lets see if bears can follow through tomorrow
- NASDAQ:NFLX earning had weak guidance
- NASDAQ:TSLA earnings tomorrow AH
- still holding my NASDAQ:SOXX short ( in 3x AMEX:SOXS )
$AAPL $XLF, $QQQ future Outlook Super Tight Range about to Break- NASDAQ:AAPL trading right under resistance, about to break out of the tightening range
- AAPL earnings date May 4th
- NASDAQ:QQQ super tight tons of inside bar, big tech earnings next week, NASDAQ:TSLA this Wednesday and NASDAQ:NFLX tomorrow
- Money rotating around the market, when QQQ consolidates money flowing into AMEX:SPY like sectors in AMEX:XLF vice versa.
Netflix: Bringing It on Stream 🎞Netflix has brought wave b in magenta on stream quite commendably and has already touched at the gray zone between $343.40 and $359.13. Thus, wave b in magenta could be finished by now, although the share could just as well use the remaining room in the upper part of the gray zone to place the corresponding high. As soon as this is done, the course should turn and head for the turquoise zone between $271.07 and $209.09 to develop wave B in turquoise. Afterward, Netflix should tackle the resistance at $379.43, which should then be conquered by wave C in turquoise. However, we should still keep in mind the 35% chance that the stock could break through the turquoise zone and drop below the support at $162.75.
Netflix (NFLX) Looking to Complete 5 Waves Elliott Wave ImpulseCycle from 3.13.2023 low in Netflix (NFLX) is in progress as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse. Up from 3.13.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 316.6 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 293.21. As the 45 minutes chart below shows, internal of wave 2 unfolded as a double three structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((w)) ended at 296, wave ((x)) ended at 307.92, and wave ((y)) lower ended at 293.18. The stock then extended higher in wave 3 towards 336.44 with internal subdivision as 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 302.91 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 300.56. The stock extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 322.78 and dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 312.15. Final leg higher wave ((v)) ended at 336.44 which completed wave 3.
Pullback in wave 4 ended at 321.28 as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 324.41, wave ((b)) ended at 333.32, and wave ((c)) lower ended at 321.28. This completed wave 4 in larger degree. The stock resumes higher in wave 5 with internal subdivision as another 5 waves. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 329.89 and wave ((ii)) ended at 325.84. Wave ((iii)) ended at 343.29, pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 335.30. Expect stock to extend higher 1 more leg to end wave ((v)) of 5 of (A). Then it should pullback in wave (B) to correct cycle from 3.13.2023 low in larger degree 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher again.