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GOLD → Correction to 3275FX:XAUUSD and medium-term outlook: Friday's strong unemployment data strengthened the dollar and triggered a sell-off in gold. Money is temporarily flowing out of the metal and into currencies and the stock market... Technically, gold is still in a bullish phase on the global timeframe. Logically, the situation is more reminiscent of a countertrend correction of the zone of interest before continuing growth. Despite the rise in the DXY after Friday's news, the dollar is still under pressure from Trump, who is pushing for an early interest rate cut. This move could significantly shake the market (dollar down, gold up) Locally, on the hourly XAUUSD timeframe, we can clearly see how the price is breaking out of the uptrend, thereby triggering a downward impulse. Resistance levels: 3325, 3343 Support levels: 3303, 3275 The liquidity level of 3300 could act as a magnet for the price, from which a correction to the resistance of the range of 3325 could form (liquidity hunt), but due to the change in the fundamental background, gold may continue its correction to 3275 (support zone) before a possible continuation of growth. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
15
GBP/USD Is This the Last Dip Before 1.37?🔹 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (Weekly & Daily Charts) Price has broken above the ascending channel highlighted on the weekly chart. The 1.3545 area is currently acting as dynamic resistance — a weekly close above it is crucial to confirm a breakout. Below, we find a bullish order block (demand zone) around 1.3340 – 1.3280, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level. RSI is neutral, showing no bearish divergence at the moment. 🔹 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercial traders: +823 new longs, +363 new shorts → Neutral to bullish positioning. Commercials remain net short, indicating short-term USD strength potential. EUR FX (inverse proxy for USD): Significant reduction in speculative long positions → Less bullish pressure on the Euro, favoring USD strength. 🔹 3. Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD vs. 33% long. This is a bullish contrarian signal, suggesting potential continuation toward the 1.36–1.37 zone. 🔹 4. Seasonality Historically, June tends to be bearish for GBP/USD over the past 5–10 years. However, the first 10 days of the month often start with bullish momentum before correcting in the second half. 🔹 5. Economic Calendar Today: Construction PMI (GBP), ECB Press Conference (EUR), Unemployment Claims (USD). Tomorrow: High potential volatility across all USD pairs. Watch out — upcoming macro data may strongly impact breakout confirmation. 🔹 6. Operational Outlook Primary Bias: Neutral/Bullish with potential for a technical pullback. 📍 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3545 – 1.3593 (Supply zone + 0.0 fib) Support: 1.3340 – 1.3280 (OB + 0.5/0.618 fib) 🧠 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation: Retest of 1.3340 → long targeting 1.3590 / 1.3680 Confirmation on daily close above 1.3550 🔻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Retracement: Rejection below 1.3550 + USD macro strength → drop toward 1.3280 If that breaks → extended move to 1.3170 / 1.3150
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
THE KOG REPORT - NFPQuick one today as we haven't had much time to put together the report. Instead, the red box levels are shared below and the extreme red boxes are on the chart. We have key level 3365 which needs to break as shown and key level 3345 which needs to break downside. RED BOX TARGETS Break above 3365 for 3366, 337, 3385, 3390, 3406 and 3420 in extension of the move Break below 3350 for 3345, 3336, 3329, 3320, 3310 and 3298 in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Just got the May NFPs... Let's have a lookWe just received the May NFPs, which, overall, are not bad. Let's dig in. TVC:DXY TVC:DJI FX_IDC:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDCAD TVC:GOLD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
XAUUSD - Gold awaits NFP!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the hourly timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50. We should wait for a valid breakout of the pattern we identified yesterday, from which we had a Fick break above. We can enter the trade after it breaks in the formed pattern, and on the other hand, if gold corrects towards the demand zone, we can buy it in the short term with a reward at an appropriate risk. Gold came under downward pressure amid renewed optimism regarding U.S.-China trade talks. Although prices surged to a four-week high earlier in the day due to strong demand from Asian and European buyers, a wave of selling during U.S. trading hours reversed part of that gain. This shift in momentum coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a boost in market sentiment following a phone call between the presidents of China and the United States. While no official statement has been issued yet, the decision to initiate a new round of high-level negotiations was seen as a positive signal. In recent months, gold has become a key indicator for gauging geopolitical and trade-related risks, having previously surged to an all-time high of $3,500 after the “Freedom Day” tariffs were implemented. Despite ongoing concerns over Ukraine, Iran, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit—which provide fundamental support for gold—the metal’s inability to break above the key resistance level of $3,437 has cast doubt on the short-term bullish outlook. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has projected that the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for May will show a 125,000 increase in jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, and monthly wage growth is estimated at 0.3%. The bank also anticipates a 10,000-job decline in the public sector, largely due to tariff-related policies and reduced hiring. Overall, Goldman Sachs expects the report to be balanced and free of surprises, which should encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy stance. Although gold has managed to stabilize above $3,000 per ounce in recent weeks, many investors remain focused on reclaiming the historic peak reached in April. According to one research firm, it’s only a matter of time before that level is tested and broken again. In the annual “Gold Focus 2025” report published Thursday by the UK-based firm Metals Focus, analysts stated that gold retains strong momentum for further gains in 2026. They forecast that the average gold price this year could reach an unprecedented $3,210, with new highs likely in the second half of the year. In an interview with Kitco News, Metals Focus CEO Philip Newman said it is difficult to envision a scenario that would derail the current bull market. While this perspective isn’t included in their formal forecasts, he believes the rally could extend into 2026. Newman added, “If you look at what’s happening across the global economy, all the ingredients for a structural bull market are present.” He highlighted that one of gold’s unique traits is how quickly investors adapt to new price levels, often converting previous resistance levels into future support. A year ago, he admitted he would have expected $3,000 to trigger widespread profit-taking. However, despite ongoing economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability, investors have not been discouraged by current price levels. Newman emphasized that what makes 2025 distinct is that new investors are just now entering the market. While gold has been rallying since 2023, much of the demand until recently came from central banks and Asian markets—particularly China. Newman noted that only in Q4 of last year and early this year did retail investors begin to decisively adopt a bullish stance. “We’ve seen strong growth in investment demand this year,” he said, “but there’s still a large amount of capital that hasn’t entered the market yet. This is not a bubble—this is a well-supported, structurally sound market.” He concluded by identifying changing perceptions of the U.S. dollar as a major driver behind increased gold investment.While the dollar remains a traditional safe haven, ongoing trade tensions and unsustainable government debt levels have eroded market confidence, prompting investors to seek safety and diversification through gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
ES Trade Idea and Upcoming NFP ReportCME_MINI:ES1! • What has the market done? ES futures are lagging compared to tech heavy index NQ futures. ES futures are still below yearly open. Yearly open has been a strong area of resistance since the rally of April 6th Lows in futures complex. • What is it trying to do? ES futures are in consolidation mode, building value higher. VPOC has shifted higher since the gap up from May 11th open. VPOC and 0.786 fib level provide a base for a continuation higher. • How good of a job is it doing? Markets seem to be slowing its rally. After such a strong rebound, participants are wary of any pull-backs. Although a strong trend higher, consolidation or a pullback is not illogical at these levels. • What is more likely to happen from here? o Scenario 1: Hold steady and NFP provides needed boost for markets to get across yearly open resistance and climb higher. o Scenario 2: A mixed NFP report may point towards further consolidation. Key level 5873 as support on move lower before reverting higher. o Scenario 3: A hawkish NFP report that signals higher for longer rates, may be interpreted by market participants as less monetary stimulus and dwindling rate cut bets for this year. We anticipate a sell-off towards 0.618 fib level in this scenario, moving to the lower edge of micro composite volume profile. In all the above scenarios, there is a clear LIS at yearly open. Other key levels are defined cleanly on the higher time frame. Important thing for traders to note here is to trade what you see and not what you think. Having an alignment between fundamentals and technicals is sound but the markets do what they do, and price moves where it should. Painting narrative to any move may sound fancy but it gets less important at intraday time frames in our opinion. Hence why we view all this considering auction markets and volume profile. Glossary: ES - emini-S&P 500 Futures NQ - emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures VPOC - Volume Point of Control: The most traded price by volume in a given range. Represents acceptance or consensus NFP - Non-Farm Payroll: Released by the US Department of Labor around the 1st Friday of every month. It reports on Unemployment, Productivity and other key metrics. Key economic release LIS - Line In the Sand: A key zone that might tip buyers or sellers to act to cover risk and might change the overall bias of our analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
XAUUSD - Gold Awaits Employment Data!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If gold corrects towards the demand range, it can be bought in the short term with appropriate risk-reward. A break of the resistance range will also pave the way for gold to rise to $3,400. In April, the U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience and flexibility, with job openings climbing to 7.4 million—exceeding analysts’ expectations. Hiring reached its fastest pace since May 2024, as employers brought on 5.6 million new workers. While these upbeat figures surprised many, some economists remained cautious, warning that ongoing tariff policies could weigh on the labor market later this year. Recent labor market data have featured unexpected results, mostly leaning positive. According to Tuesday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings in April surpassed forecasts, rising from 7.2 million in March to 7.4 million. Despite the encouraging nature of the data, the overall labor market picture has not shifted dramatically. Month-to-month fluctuations aside, the broader trend reflects a slowdown compared to the post-pandemic period when demand for workers was extremely high. Economists continue to expect that the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign will further hinder job creation in the months ahead. Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary: “These figures still reflect a gradually slowing but stable job market. The jump in openings is more indicative of normal data volatility than a genuine surge in new positions. Likewise, the increase in hiring isn’t a strong recovery signal, as hiring remains within recent weak ranges.” Alison Sriwastava, labor economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, added: “The data show that U.S. employers had enough confidence to maintain more job openings in April than in March—whether through strong planning, resilient supply chains, or a bit of luck. But just because employers had a good month doesn’t mean they can sustain that success indefinitely, especially given the continued uncertainty and volatility.” Meanwhile, the White House confirmed that it had sent letters to several countries asking them to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday. Progress on trade agreements since “Liberation Day” has been sluggish and challenging, and now all eyes are on what the Trump administration will do next. Reuters obtained the letter, which asked countries to present their best proposals regarding tariffs, purchase quotas for U.S. goods, and plans to eliminate non-tariff barriers. However, according to the New York Post, immediate retaliation or action from the White House should not be assumed. Citing a source familiar with the matter, the letter’s purpose was described as an assessment of trade partners’ progress rather than a call for final offers. In the diplomatic arena, newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet with Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday following weeks of consultations. Key topics on the agenda include the war in Ukraine, Middle East crises, and trade policy. Merz, who recently took charge of Europe’s largest economy, has made rounds through major European capitals and now seeks to ease tensions with the Trump administration. The main areas of contention between Washington and Berlin involve trade imbalances, support for Ukraine, and domestic policy disputes. This meeting presents a rare opportunity for Merz to voice his positions directly to Trump—unlike his predecessor, who never received a White House invitation.Nevertheless, Merz faces numerous challenges, ranging from far-right political pressures at home to clashes over tech companies on both sides of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum officially took effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on Wednesday. These now-doubled tariffs apply to all trading partners except the United Kingdom. As the only country to have reached a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. so far, the U.K. will remain under a 25% tariff until at least July 9. The executive order signed by Trump on Tuesday stated that the action is intended to “more effectively counter foreign nations that continue to sell excess and underpriced steel and aluminum in the U.S. market, undermining the competitiveness of America’s domestic steel and aluminum industries.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Macro Outlook: Trade War Jitters, Deficit, NFP FridayAlthough there is a headline fatigue and markets have been stabilizing with the worst of trade war story behind us, the fact is that uncertainty still looms. President Trump announced over the weekend that he will double down on US steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% effective June 4th. Highlight this week is US Jobs data this Friday. A key point to determine the resilience of the US labor market. With FED Chair Powell speaking today and FED speakers scheduled throughout the week, it will be key to watch how they shape markets' probability of rate cuts? As we previously explained, ongoing uncertainty and dragging trade concerns present more risks until resolved. Here are some key points to consider: It remains to be seen whether the trade deficit will continue to worsen or begin to reverse. April trade data, along with any policy shifts such as a reversal on reciprocal tariffs, will be important to monitor. These indicators will provide insight into how businesses are interpreting ongoing trade uncertainty. The key question is whether they will continue front-loading inventory in anticipation of future disruptions, or if the focus will shift toward restructuring supply chains and reining in spending as part of a longer-term strategic adjustment. At the same time, consumer spending remains resilient, supporting overall demand. However, pressure may be building on business balance sheets, particularly businesses with poor cash flow to manage front loading inventory spending as the trade environment remains volatile. If consumer spending begins to weaken, businesses may be forced to cut costs, scale back investment, or offer steep discounts to clear excess inventory. This could lead to a cycle of margin compression, especially if firms attempt to pass higher costs onto price-sensitive consumers, potentially suppressing demand further. Conversely, if businesses choose to absorb rising costs to maintain competitive pricing, they face deteriorating margins but may be betting on continued strength in consumer credit, household savings buffers as evident. Consumer confidence, despite being low, is not an accurate indicator in times of uncertainty. Here, we should watch what consumers do and not the sentiment. In this scenario, firms may delay cost-cutting in the hope that continued strength in consumer spending will support revenues through the rest of the year. A central tension remains: businesses must navigate a delicate balance between protecting margins and preserving demand. Meanwhile, persistent trade uncertainty and tighter financial conditions may slow capital investment and hiring, further complicating the outlook. Whether firms shift from defensive postures like front-loading toward long-term structural changes in supply chains will hinge on how durable current consumer strength proves to be and how responsive trade policy becomes in the months ahead. Ongoing front-loading has caused ripples as the trade deficit has further widened. Will this reverse as businesses focus on sales and revenue instead of front-loading inventory? In our analysis, trade imports, trade balance, consumer spending and corporate profits will be key to monitor despite being lagging indicators. On the other hand, equally important to watch and monitor goods exports, durable goods to assess and evaluate the other side of the equation. However, our focus is on imports as manufacturing jobs are at their lowest in US history. Once the dust has settled and trade deals are locked in, it will be important to note if Exports by Country experience any significant shifts. What does all this mean for the stock market and futures? In simple terms, the yearly pivot and last month’s high is a major resistance area for index futures. Until this is cleared, we may see a range bound market and two way trade. There is a lot of weak structure to revisit lower. Markets may perhaps retest this before resuming higher. What we would want to see is, last month’s low holding support and this month’s price action trading inside previous month’s range or resuming higher. If we revisit May Monthly Lows, we may see increased selling pressure come in.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by EdgeClear
XAUUSD - Gold is on the verge of a very important week!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I predict the path ahead for gold to be upward and if the resistance level is broken, we can look for buying opportunities. If gold corrects, we can also buy it with a reward at an appropriate risk. Gold prices experienced a mild decline over the past week, with market sentiment shaped less by fundamental shifts and more by mixed messages and scattered commentary around tariffs.Despite the noise, many traders chose to rely on data and technical charts rather than reacting emotionally—data that painted a more subdued picture than the headlines suggested. Rich Checkan, CEO of Asset Strategies International, responded confidently in a recent survey, predicting further gains in gold. “The trajectory for gold is clearly upward. Prices have stabilized around the $3,300 level and appear ready for a new rally, especially if the appellate court’s ruling on tariffs is upheld,” he said. Checkan also pointed to another macroeconomic factor that could support gold: “A new tax bill, described as large and costly, is set to be voted on in the Senate soon. If passed, it will likely widen the budget deficit, which historically leads to increased liquidity and rising inflation—a favorable environment for gold.” On Friday, the PCE inflation report showed easing price pressures, though not enough to put the Federal Reserve at ease. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year in April—matching expectations and slightly down from 2.7% the previous month. The headline PCE also increased 2.1% annually, just below the forecast of 2.2%. The key point: these data reflect the first month in which Trump’s new tariffs were active, yet there’s little evidence so far that they’ve caused inflation to rise. Still, the disinflationary trend remains sluggish and distant from the Fed’s 2% target. In its latest minutes, the Fed warned that inflation may prove more persistent than previously thought. Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, despite the seemingly positive PCE numbers, issued a cautionary note with four key insights: • The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to begin showing up from May and be fully reflected in June’s data. This could accelerate goods price increases and disrupt the path of disinflation. • Last year’s monthly PCE figures were particularly weak (May: 0%, June: 0.1%, July: 0.2%). As these drop out of the annual calculation, even if monthly gains remain steady, YoY rates could rise mathematically. • The three-month average for Core PCE from May to October 2024 was only 0.1%. If upcoming monthly figures hit 0.2%, annual disinflation could stall or even reverse. • While the latest report is encouraging, the effects of tariffs and the removal of last year’s weak data could complicate the inflation trajectory. Looking ahead, market attention will focus heavily on a suite of crucial U.S. labor market indicators. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is due Tuesday, private sector employment data (ADP) on Wednesday, and jobless claims on Thursday. However, the most anticipated release will be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for May—widely viewed as a key factor influencing rate expectations. Alongside labor data, markets will also watch other critical economic reports. The ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday will offer broader insight into U.S. business activity. In the realm of monetary policy, interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the European Central Bank (Thursday) are expected to trigger notable movements in the currency and gold markets.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionIn this video, we dissect how gold traded last week (May 26–30), why the price hovered near the top of a descending channel, and what’s driving market indecision. From geopolitical tensions to Federal Reserve interest rate uncertainty, we connect the dots between fundamentals and technical structure, enabling you to make better-informed trading decisions. 📅 Key Events to Watch This Week: ✅ISM Manufacturing PMI ✅ADP Employment Change ✅ISM Services PMI ✅Average Hourly Earnings ✅Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) 🎯 In this analysis, I walk you through: 🔸My technical blueprint (key zones for buyers & sellers) 🔸My bullish and bearish scenarios based on the structure on the chart 🔔 Don’t forget to like the video in support of my work. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading. #GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldPriceForecast #GoldTrading #ForexAnalysis #MarketOutlook #NFP #FOMC #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #GoldBulls #GoldBears #TradingStrategy #Darcsherry #XAUUSDAnalysis #GoldOutlook #GoldPricePrediction
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
Australian dollar hits five-month high after Australian electionThe Australian dollar continues to impress and has posted strong gains on Monday. European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6491, up 0.72% on the day and its highest level since early December 2025. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese cruised to a resounding victory in Saturday's national election. Albanese' centre-left Labor Party increased its majority and thumped the Liberal Party opposition. The coalition's defeat was marked by its leader, Peter Dutton losing his own seat. The long shadow of US President Donald Trump was a factor in the election. Dutton adopted right-wing policies such as promising tougher immigration laws and establishing a platform to reduce the waste of public funds. The similarities between Dutton and Trump hurt the Liberal leader as many voters were upset with Trump's 10% tariffs on Australia. At the start of the year, Albanese was trailing badly in the opinion polls. However, he struck a receptive chord among voters on domestic issues such as health care and housing, and benefited from the anti-Trump sentiment, which proved to be a winning recipe. US nonfarm payrolls, a key gauge of the US labor market, dipped slightly to 177 thousand in April, down from a revised 185 thousand in March. This easily beat the market estimate of 130 thousand. The positive unemployment report points to a resilient labor market which remains strong despite the US economy declining in the first quarter. The markets have responded by lowering the odds of a rate hike in June to 33%, down sharply from 60% a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is virtually certain to maintain the benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.5%.
by OANDA
EURUSD | Head‑&‑Shoulders on the Brink – Bears Eye 1.1250📉 Trade Thesis A textbook Head‑and‑Shoulders has completed on the 30‑min EURUSD chart. Price is now testing the rising neckline drawn from mid‑April swing lows. A clean close and retest beneath that trendline opens room toward the next demand shelf and the lower boundary of the broader ascending channel. 🎯 Execution Plan Entry: wait for a decisive candle close below the neckline, then look to short on a minor pull‑back into that broken support. Stop: just above the right‑shoulder high to keep risk tight. Target: the measured‑move objective sits near the channel median/support cluster highlighted on the chart; scale out as price approaches that zone. 🧩 Confluence Factors Momentum loss: RSI made a lower peak on the “head” versus the prior thrust, signalling fading upside energy. Event risk: upcoming NFP/ISM releases may fuel USD volatility, providing the catalyst for a break. Structure: the right shoulder’s supply shelf has capped every rally since late April, reinforcing bearish pressure. ⚠️ Risk Management Macro data can produce whipsaws—size positions accordingly and stick to the plan. Move stops to breakeven once price pushes convincingly away from the neckline. For educational purposes only. Trade your own strategy & manage risk.
Short
by natron
3
Euro breaks slide as eurozone core CPI climbs, US nonfarm payrolThe euro has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1325, up 0.37% on the day. Today's gains follow a three-day slide. US nonfarm payrolls came in at 177 thousand, much stronger than the market estimate of 130 thousand. Eurozone inflation for April was a surprise on the upside. Headline CPI remained steady at 2.2% y/y, edging above the market estimate of 2.1%. Lower energy prices were offset by a rise in service inflation and food prices. Monthly, CPI was also unchanged at 0.6%, above the forecast of 0.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is a better gauge of inflation trends, jumped to 2.7% y/y, up from 2.4% in March and above the market estimate of 2.5%. This was the first acceleration in the core rate since May 2024. Services inflation, a key component in Core CPI remains hot and jumped to 3.9% from 3.5% in March. The rise in core CPI is a worrisome sign for the European Central Bank and could complicate plans to gradually lower interest rates. The ECB has been aggressive, cutting rates by 175 basis points in the current easing cycle. Still, more cuts are needed to boost the ailing eurozone economy. US nonfarm payrolls came in at 177 thousand in April, slightly below the downwardly revised gain of 185 thousand in March. This easily beat the market estimate of 130 thousand and is a sign that the US labor market remains in decent shape. Wage growth was unchanged at 3.8% y/y, just below the market estimate of 3.9%. Monthly, wage growth dropped to 0.2% from 0.3%, shy of the market estimate of 0.3%.
by OANDA
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve done well this week on gold, capturing the high into the low and then taking the long late session which has nearly completed our higher target for a decent week on this precious metal. As we’ve said, best practice is to let this play out, let them take it to where they want, once it settles, then look for the trade. We have support now at the 320-35 level which is a key level that will need to break in order to reverse and go lower. This level also lines up with our Excalibur levels and red boxes so we can say it’s pretty strong. Above, we have the 3270-75 region which is the previous order level, our volume indicator is suggesting a pull back, so rejection there can take us back into support to settle for the NFP release. It’s this level, if held which can push this upside and our thoughts are at the moment, are they going to take this back into the previous range and hold it there into the close. So as long as 3240 holds us, we’re likely to see higher pricing for now, 3310-20 is the key level above which needs to break to then give us the flip and potential for a new all time high. For now, let’s sit back and see what happens. RED BOXES: Break above 3262 for 3265, 3270, 3275 and 3288 in extension of the move Break below 3252 for 3240, 3236, 3230 and 3220 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
NFP is out. Market reaction - 2025.05.02The NFP number came out higher than the forecast, but lower than the previous (even the revised one). The initial reaction was in favour of DXY, but it has gone quiet very quickly. Maybe because of the fact that the market is preparing for some action on 7th of May, when the Fed announces interest rates. Let's dig in... MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX FX_IDC:AUDUSD FX_IDC:USDJPY Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
by Marketscom
Can USD/JPY hold THIS key support after a mixed NFP report? The US dollar traded mixed shortly after the NFP was released, as risk-on sentiment remained the prevailing trend. As index futures rose further, commodity dollars extended their gains against the greenback, while the USD/JPY attempted to find support around the key 144.00 - 144.50 area. This zone was resistance in the past so let's see if the UJ will be able to rebound from here later in the session, and in early next week. NFP comes in stronger, but... The nonfarm payrolls data “beat” forecasts, with a headline print of 177K vs. 138K eyed. But data for March was revised lower to 185K rom 228K. Revisions to prior two months have taken out 58K from initial estimates. Taken together, this is hardly a beat. But the good news was that full-time employment rose sharply. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was unchanged at 4.2%. On the inflation side of things, average earnings came in slightly lower than expected, rising 0.2% on a month-over-month basis, compared with 0.3% expected. Nothing to get too excited over, but potentially good news as far as inflation is concerned – especially after we saw a slightly weaker Core PCE Price Index in mid-week. NFP was never going to matter much The market’s focus is on trade war and trade negotiations. We were never going to see any wild market reactions, and so it has so far proved. The US dollar initially spiked then quickly returned to pre-NFP levels. Gold fell, and index futures added onto earlier gains. Up next: ISM Services PMI on Monday and FOMC on Thursday. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom