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BluetonaFX - USDJPY ABCD Pattern WarningHi Traders! There are potential warning signs that the outlook for the US dollar is not as strong as we hoped. Bad data has been coming out of the US this week, leading to traders being very nervous about tomorrow's NFP announcement. This technical analysis on the charts also supports this. The market is currently in an ABCD formation, and the demand zone at the 145 level, which has been very strong over the past few weeks, must hold here; otherwise, there is a risk of a potential reversal of the bullish trend. Last week, we posted a bull flag opportunity and stated that the market must break and close above 146.564 for a possible continuation towards 150.000, which the market has yet to do. This pattern is still in play, but the demand zone must hold. All eyes will be on the NFP announcement tomorrow, and further bad data will lead to a bearish outlook for the US dollar. We would love to hear your thoughts on this in the comments section. Please also do not forget to press the like button and follow for more updates. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
Eightcap: USDCAD Analysis Today's focus: USDCAD Pattern – Support hold, retracement Support – 1.3517 Resistance – 1.3597, 1.3640 • USDCAD price sits at a junction. • USDCAD failed at its latest key resistance test. Hi, and thanks for checking out our latest market update. Today, we have run over the USDCAD on the daily chart and discussed oil and the USD index, as well as upcoming news that could influence the current picture. Price could be seen in a small squeeze at the moment. Will we see short-term support hold and potentially feed a new shot at key resistance? Or do we see support break and price make a new move back towards the main trendline? Data to watch today: US unemployment claims and core PCE price index. Tomorrow, US employment data. Have a great day and good trading.
by Eightcap
NFP Alert: Gold to rise on weak numbers? Focus is growing on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. In August, it's expected that there will be about 170,000 new jobs (compared to 187,000 in July). The days leading up to this report have had some not-so-great job-related data, like the JOLTS and ADP reports. This has heightened expectations that the NFP might show fewer jobs than expected. The US dollar and Gold may feel the immediate effects if job growth disappoints, as signs that the economy is slowing could force the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance at upcoming meetings. Just yesterday, the ADP report for private payrolls in August was lower than what experts predicted. It was 177,000 jobs instead of the expected 195,000. If the NFP shows more than 200,000 new jobs, there could be a higher risk of inflation. This could help the US dollar but might place pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, if the NFP has less than 150,000 new jobs, traders might change their thinking about the Fed monetary policy outlook. This could make the US dollar weaker but could be a boost for gold prices. Gold recently peaked just below $1950, so this would be the immediate upside target, followed by last month's peaks at $1954, $1963, and $1972.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
1
US30 - 28th to New month - NFP WEEK! Good Day mates Happy new week - even though its already Wednesday. Time away from the charts is always a good thing. This week we have major US news - Previous week liquidity all taken - Liquidity Gaps created - Bullish price action - Breaking previous highs Last week the 4hr flip zone (34679) held strong. Price respected this zone very much. Price kept sweeping sellside liquidity. im expecting price to push higher until Friday, we will see corrections as noted with the gaps however i strongly believe that a seek and destroy profile is on the cards this week Good Luck ! Trade safe and follow your rules
CAPITALCOM:US30
by KingDee57
3
Using FUNDAMENTALS as timing CONFLUENCE (NFP week)BIG PICTURE UPDATE: - We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024. - Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims - Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE - With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher with them (which is why I'm expecting XAU to head lower for now) SCENARIOS: - SCENARIO #1: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes) causing gold to peak by Wed and begin moving lower - SCENARIO #2: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes), yet gold will stubbornly rally/move sideways; in this case NFP will most likely be the launching point of this move lower _____________________________ - Scenario#1 is looking more likely at the moment. There are 2 orders I'm interested in placing for this trade (if the 1st fails, 2nd should work)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
1
EURUSD Key levels pivotal as NFP nears The 4-hour chart on the EUR/USD displays a possible bearish bias, but there are some indications of consolidation after the small rebound observed on Friday. At present, the price is lingering around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). To improve its bullish outlook, it would be necessary for the Euro to hit 1.0840 and for other technical indicators (that have shifted away from their bearish inclination) to remain in its favor. The attention is now directed towards upcoming employment and inflation data. The JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by the ADP survey on private job creation, in anticipation of the Nonfarm Payrolls report to be unveiled on Friday. In the realm of European data, emphasis is also placed on inflation reports. Commencing Wednesday, Eurozone nations will commence the release of preliminary August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Additionally, on Tuesday, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence survey is set to be published. If there is a weekly closure in proximity to the current levels after the US jobs reports, it might embolden sellers in the next week, potentially opening the price zone around 1.0733. In the meantime, resistance could potentially be encountered at levels 1.0840 and 1.0910.
by BlackBull_Markets
🔴 #XAUUSD : Gold will fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining gold in the 4-hour time frame, we see that the price is still trading in the range of $1932! I have specified 2 scenarios on the chart, in both cases I expect gold to fall more, but due to the extreme fluctuations that will caused by the announcement of NFP changes, moves may be made to collect liquidity, so be careful! The ranges and important supply zone are $1934, $1939 to $1943, and $1947 to $1956, respectively! Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
62
GOLD/XAUUSD LONG/ BUY🔰 Pair Name: GOLD/XAUUSD 🔰 Time Frame: 1H/4H 🔰 Scale Type: SMALL Scale 🔰 Direction: LONG/BUY 📈 Fundamental Point of View 📉 Gold price experienced a strong rebound after the US NFP report fell short of expectations last Friday. In July, fresh payrolls were 187K lower than the consensus of 200K, although they were marginally higher than June's print of 185K. The market sentiment turned positive despite Fitch's downgrade of the US government long-term debt rating. 📊 Technical Point of View 📉 From a technical standpoint, Gold showed a significant bounce and closed the daily candle above the key daily support level at $1932 last Friday, driven by the unexpected and shocking low NFP data release. The price has also touched the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, which indicates a potential bullish momentum. We anticipate the gold price to make a solid cross above this level on the 1-hour candle chart and then retest the 23.6% Fibonacci level before aiming for the next resistance at the Fib level of 50% at a price of $1951.88 at the beginning of this week. 🚀📈 🔍 Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your research and consult a professional before making trading decisions. 🔍
TVC:GOLDLong
by Moon_SmartMoney
XAU/USD POINT OF REACTION 1946On gold, we have a bearish setup on both the weekly and daily charts. Occasionally, we have noticed that it is useful to look at clearer and more detailed timeframes. In both the weekly and daily charts, we precisely have a bearish setup with a resistance zone between 1960 and 2040. Within this zone, there is a demand area and a bearish trendline where the price has bounced before reversing course after a slight rally. Indeed, the price is now descending towards 1910, which is our key level that will act as support initially and then resistance once the price reaches the demand zone, which is between 1800 and 1840. We expect a rebound from that area with a target of 1910. Let us know what you think. Happy trading to everyone!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD EURUSD USDJPY NFP Multi-Chart AnalysisHi Traders! The Non-Farm Payrolls announcement led to weakness in the US dollar due to a weaker than expected number. The figure came in at 187k, which fell short of analysts' forecasted 205k, and markets have reacted strongly to the data announcement. We have a multi-chart analysis here on the 3H timeframe showing the current price action in the markets. Levels have been broken across the board on our indicators, and we could see potential trend reversals across the board. GBPUSD Our 20 EMA resistance was broken with momentum; however, we have found resistance at our upper Bollinger band around 1.27800. As long as the market stays above the 20 EMA, there may be another push towards the upper band to see if there is a possibility for continuation to the upside. EURUSD Our 20 EMA resistance was broken with momentum, and the upper band Bollinger resistance just above the 1.10100 level was also broken, which tells us that bullish momentum is currently very high. For a continuation to the upside, our best price action signal is to stay as close to the upper band as possible. USDJPY Our 20 EMA support was broken with momentum, the lower band Bollinger support around 142.00 was also broken, and we are currently back under the 142 handle. USDJPY is looking very weak at the moment, and we could potentially go back to 140 if we continue to stay below the 20 EMA.     Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
USD/CAD shrugs after soft nonfarm payrollsThe Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, up 0.06%. Canadian and US job numbers were soft today, but the Canadian dollar's reaction has been muted. After a stellar job report in June, the July numbers were dreadful. Canada's economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, compared to a 59, 900 gain in June. Full-time employment added a negligible 1,700 jobs, following a massive 109,600 in June. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5%, up from 5.4%. Perhaps the most interesting data was wage growth, which jumped 5% y/y in June, climbing from 3.9% in May. The rise is indicative of a tight labour market and will complicate the Bank of Canada's fight to bring inflation down to the 2% target. It was deja vous all over again, as nonfarm payrolls failed to follow the ADP employment report with a massive gain. In June, a huge ADP reading fuelled speculation that nonfarm payrolls would also surge, and the same happened this week. Both times, nonfarm payrolls headed lower, a reminder that ADP is not a reliable precursor to the nonfarm payrolls report. July nonfarm payrolls dipped to 187,000, very close to June reading of 185,000 (downwardly revised from 209,000). This marks the lowest level since December 2020. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, down from 3.6%. Wage growth stayed steady at 4.4%, above the consensus estimate of 4.2%. What's interesting and perhaps frustrating for the Fed, is that the jobs report is sending contradictory signals about the strength of the labour market. Job growth is falling, but the unemployment rate has dropped and wage growth remains strong. With different metrics in the jobs report telling a different story, it will be difficult for the Fed to rely on this employment report as it determines its path for future rate decisions. There is resistance at 1.3324 and 1.3394 1.3223 and 1.3182 are providing support
by OANDA
KOG REPORT - NFP NFP – KOG Report: This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. It’s been a decent week in Camelot, so today’s NFP it’s suggested we stay away, let them move the markets to where they want, once the price settles then look for the key levels together with a high probability set before getting back into the markets. New traders, this usually happens next week! We’ll start by saying we should be bullish in these months with Gold attempting to break the 2000 level, however, looking at the structure of the chart we can see they’re lining up for a big move. Now, we have the key levels below 1920-23 which is important for price to stay above to then attempt to target the order region 1950-55 above. If price is supported around the 1920-23 region, we feel price may attempt to recover and attack the 1950-55 price region. This region is where we may get a reaction in price, which based on resistance could represent an opportunity to short the market back down for the lower levels. These levels need to be watched for a break either side of the overall range, which is shown on the illustration. Key levels for NFP – Support: 1930 / 1925 / 1923 / 1920 on break lower into 1910-05 target region Resistance: 1935 / 1942 / 1950 / 1955 on break higher into 1985 target region Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
NFP Preview by FOREX.com • Dollar outlook hinges on NFP as Fed’s decision is data-dependent • Mixed NFP leading indicators and what are analysts expecting • Wage inflation in services still a problem for the Fed Employment reports are almost always important anyway, but this one is going to be even more so. Coming in a week before the CPI report, Friday’s jobs data is going to influence Fed’s policy, as Powell has made it quite clear that US monetary policy is now restrictive enough and that the next decision in September would be entirely data dependent. Until then, we will have two more inflation and a couple of jobs reports to consider, including this one. While the focus is clearly on inflation as employment is still very strong, any potential weakness in jobs data could cement expectations of a policy hold. But another surprisingly strong employment report would keep the threat of further Fed hikes alive. So, the dollar could move quite sharply this week, as the Fed is now watching data very closely in determining its next move on monetary policy. What are analysts expecting? • Headline jobs growth of 200K expected vs. 209K in June • Unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.6% • Average Hourly Earnings are seen printing +0.3% m/m vs. +0.4% last month or 4.2% y/y vs. 4.4% previously Mixed NFP leading indicators The leading indicators we have had this week have been quite mixed. While the ADP private sector payrolls report was strong, the employment components of both the ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs weakened. 1. ISM Services PMI • Headline: 52.7, Exp. 53.0, down from 53.9 • Employment 50.7, down 2.4 points from 53.1 in June • (Also, disinflation is already evidently ending in the services sector: Prices Paid was up - 56.8 from 54.1) 2. ISM manufacturing • Headline 46.4, Exp. 46.9, down from 46.0 • Employment 44.4, down 3.7 points from 48.1 in June 3. ADP private payrolls 324K vs. 191K eyed and 455K last The overall picture from the pre-NFP leading indicators point to a jobs report roughly in line with expectations. But if you look at the recent history of the nonfarm payrolls report, we have consistently seen better-than-expect results, although lately they have either been subsequently revised lower or in the case of the June report, missed expectations. Wage inflation in services still a problem for the Fed It is important to consider the whole picture and take into account average hourly earnings when it comes to trading the NFP. On the latter front, we have seen earnings increase by 4.4% year-on-year in April, May and June 2023. This shows that wage inflation is still going strong, and it is a concern for the Fed. This is especially the case for the services sector – which was also highlighted by the rise in prices paid index of the ISM services PMI. Another strong showing in wages data would be considered a dollar-bullish jobs report, even if we see a small miss in headline employment. Will USD continue pressing higher anyway? The further strengthening of the US dollar so far this week has nothing to do with the Fed’s expected policy decision. It has a lot to do with the sell-off in US bond market, especially at the long end of the curve. This has been triggered by that rating downgrade by Fitch, causing investors to demand more for the increased risks associated with holding Treasurys. While a US debt default is unthinkable, it could happen at some future point in time. So, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further increases in US bond yields in the near-term. It will be interesting to watch next week’s $103 billion bond auction. This will tell us a lot about investors’ willingness to hold government debt. That said, the correction potential for the dollar is now high, and investors may soon start selling USD once the dust settles down – and especially if Friday’s jobs report comes in weaker. What else will markets focus on? Once the jobs report is out of the way, investors will turn their attention towards more inflation data, due in the following week. As mentioned, we will have already had the wages data from the employment report, but CPI is going to be important next Thursday. US inflation has fallen sharply in recent times, printing below-forecast readings in each of the past 4 months. Annual CPI fell to just 3.0% in June from around 6.5% at the start of the year, increasing the likelihood that interest rates have now peaked. The Fed’s policy decision in September will be entirely data dependent. Until then, we will have one more inflation and jobs report after this. Any further weakening of CPI could cement expectations of a policy hold. NFP trade ideas: EUR/USD and S&P 500 If the employment and wages data come in lower, we would favour looking for long setups in the EUR/USD, while a stronger report would boost the appeal of the USD/CHF. A goldilocks report is what stock market investors would be looking for – something not too hot to warrant a rate increase, and not too cold to raise recession alarm bells. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
Non Farm Friday Prep4th August 2023 DXY: reacting along 102.55, depending on NFP today NZDUSD: Sell 0.6110 SL 25 TP 75 (dxy strength) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6575 SL 30 TP 60 (dxy strength) USDJPY: Sell 141.70 SL 30 TP 90 (dxy weakness) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2775 SL 35 TP 100 (dxy weakness, IHS) EURUSD: Sell 1.0930 SL 25 TP 50 (dxy strength) USDCHF: looking for a reaction along 0.88 Buy 0.8810 SL 20 TP 35 (dxy strength) Sell 0.8790 SL 20 TP 50 (dxy weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3395 SL 25 TP 65 (dxy strength) Gold: Break of support at 1930 to trade down to 1913
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2