Positive NFP Data for the USDNFP May 2023 - 339,000 jobs have been created.
While this sounds like a good thing, it’s also a bad thing. The entire point of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates was to ‘slow down inflation’ by making people lose their jobs, in turn leaving them with less disposable income to flood back into the economy.
What this NFP data shows is that the current interest rate hikes aren’t working, so this will now be another excuse for the Federal Reserve (really the US government) to be more aggressive with rate hikes, which will end up destroying the economy. This’ll create higher unemployment rates, higher mortgage rates (people default & lose their homes) & higher poverty. This’ll have a knock on effect on the global economy such as the U.K.
World Economic Forum - “You Will Own Nothing & Be Happy”
Nfp
GBPUSD I It will be heading downward Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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USDJPY I Expect to rise after 339K May NFP report Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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NFP report: How Will it Shape the Gold Trend? NFP report: How Will it Shape the Gold Trend?
Gold prices experienced a rise on Tuesday and Thursday (sideways on Wednesday), driven by traders' expectations of another interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. But is the medium-term downtrend really over?
One fundamental indicator that can help answer this question is the nonfarm payrolls, due to be released this Friday (US time). Any unexpected outcomes could lead to heightened volatility in rate-sensitive assets such as gold.
Market projections indicate that the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will show a slowdown in job additions to the economy, with 190,000 jobs compared to the 253,000 jobs added in April. Interestingly, the forecast for the previous month was also around 190,000 jobs.
The nonfarm payroll data serves as the final key indicator ahead of the release of inflation data on June 14 and the concurrent interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
Market sentiment currently suggests a 60% probability of a 25 basis-point interest rate hike during the Federal Reserve's upcoming June meeting, compared to a 26% chance observed a week earlier. If implemented, this would mark the central bank's 11th consecutive rate increase.
Gold was trading around $1,932, reaching its lowest level since March 17 before its incline began on Tuesday. While Thursday was a positive day for the metal, it still retraced about half of its gains on the day and now trades at approximately $1,960. It peaked at $1,974, which is the most immediate resistance level but without much historical precedence. Considering the NFP is still two days away, this level might become irrelevant.
$1,985 is a level with more medium-term precedence but will have to wait until closer to the release of the data to tell if this level is something that needs to be watched. If gold turns to the downside, it might pay to keep an eye on $1,938 as a support level.
5 Key Factors Shaping US Dollar Trading This WeekThe US dollar is in the midst of a week filled with pivotal events. Together, these fundamental drivers hold the key to understanding the potential shifts in the US dollar's performance throughout the week:
US President Joe Biden announced that a bipartisan agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion, aiming to avoid a default. He has now called on Congress to pass the deal asap. Fitch ratings will remove the “negative watch” rating on the United States when the deal passes or looks likely to pass congress.
The debt ceiling agreement has potentially weakened the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, leading to an increase in risk appetite in global markets.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, rose by 4.4% in April compared to the previous year, up from the 4.2% increase observed in March. This development has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June.
Due to the Memorial Day weekend in the US, as well as bank holidays in Europe and the UK, Monday will experience reduced market liquidity. Additionally, institutions are preparing for month-end trading on Wednesday, which could introduce more volatility.
The US payrolls report for May will be released on June 2nd. Recent months have consistently shown better-than-expected job figures. It is anticipated that this week's job numbers will indicate an addition of 180,000 jobs, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. A tighter job market will reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with strong wage data also providing support if the actual figures surpass estimates.
XAUUSD 5 may continue NFPbuy active continue
read previous map before this one
---
im still xpecting this nfp creating new playing area after breakout 2005
and this nfp creating the low range. good opportunity for follow the bull.
even if the price goes to 2000, ill add another buy, with same SL price 1995. as long as this week doesnt closed bellow 2000
for those who want wait confirmation pattern, try to find pattern in M30-M15 time frame
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
Overall, EURUSD continues to be a bullish case on the larger timeframe. There are good reasons to believe in a bull case due to the interest rate differential between EUR and USD.
Technical Confluences
1. Price is currently hovering around the previous swing high and bullish momentum has reduced to consolidation in price. Support marked out at 1.0755 where price could potentially retrace to.
2. On the daily timeframe of EURUSD, bullish pressure is waning and a deep retracement on EURUSD could be due soon.
Idea
Price can continue bullish to tap into the weekly high at 1.10922
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
With the volatility in place from last week's FOMC and NFP prints, the market has yet to stabilise and we could see volatility carried over from last week to the market.
Technical Confluences
1. On the daily timeframe on XAUUSD, price has tapped onto the key resistance level at 2050 before rejecting.
2. An area of support at 1959 is crucial to look at amidst the high levels of liquidity existing above this support.
Idea
With plenty of liquidity near the support, price could potentially tap area at 1959 before heading up.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
DXY Potential Short Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
We had the FOMC and NFP news release last week.
The FOMC increased its rate hike by 25 basis points as expected to 5.25%. The DXY dropped to a low of 101 after FED Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank's efforts to tame inflation is seeing some progress, also giving indication that it is nearing the end of its hiking cycle soon.
Although the NFP results were better than expected, increasing by 253,000 jobs last month, exceeding economists’ expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping to a 53-year low of 3.4%.
The results were overshadowed by traders watching for the Fed’s possible interest rate cut or pause which caused the DXY to weaken further after the NFP news release.
Technical Confluences
1. Near-term support at 101
2. Next key support at 100
Idea
The 1st support is at the 101 round number. We are looking for price to continue bearish towards that area. A break below 100.800 could potentially bring price towards the next strong key support of 100.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
💵 Dollar Buyers Pile Back in with NFP DataWell Dollar Buyers Piled back in with positive Jobs data. Eurusd returned back to the bottom of the range for the 3rd time in 2 Weeks. Our Daily Levels being 1.097 and 1.095. Quite the week for Swing traders and Scalpers playing the range.. Like who cares about breakouts anymore 😂. We were anticpating this data to take us out of the range and up to 1.115 but that is for another day.
The Weekly candle will either Pullback up or continue dropping to end the week. It appears that we may be going to correct the NFP release at 1.10111. This occurs a majority of the time. The timing can be quite tricky however. I've seen it take 2-3 Days or 2-3 Trading Session or even 2-3 Hours. Yes, or even less than an hour. Either way have a great weekend.
No trades today because
the sum of my Previous 5 Friday's
were
profitable BUT only on 20% of the days.
I had a Big Friday in Late March which brings the sum
of my recent Friday's to a positive.
If I had traded today I would have done well.
But as mentioned previously the majority of Friday's
are a Small Loss or Break even. It's Friday and even though I'm overall
up on the sum of my friday's, I would rather save my energy and go enjoy the weekend.
This doesn't mean that I can't still watch the charts. I did.
I had a B.E. week. It's better than a Losing Week!
Another week of experience under the belt. Safe Trading.
USD/CAD extends slide ahead of job reportsThe Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st.
The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today. Canada is expected to have added 20,000 new jobs in April, following 34,700 in March. This would be the lowest reading in four months and would be a clear sign that the labour market is weakening as interest rate hikes make their effect felt on the economy.
In the US, nonfarm payrolls for April could move the dial on the US dollar ahead of the weekend. The markets are braced for a drop to 179,000, following 236,000 in March. There is a growing feeling that the labour market, which is been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes, is showing cracks. Unemployment claims jumped to 242,000, up from a downwardly revised 229,000 and above the consensus of 240,000. Business optimism remains weak and that could translate into less hiring. If nonfarm payrolls fall to 180,000 or less, I would expect to see the US dollar lose ground, on expectations that the Fed may ease policy.
The Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points this week may have been the end of the current rate-hike cycle, in which the Fed has raised rates 10 consecutive times. Fed Chair Powell hinted that the Fed could pause rates as soon as June, although he reminded his listeners that the battle against inflation was far from over and didn't close the door on further hikes. The markets are betting on a pause in June, with a probability of 99%, according to the CME Group.
Powell said that given the inflation outlook, rate cuts were not on the table. The markets don't buy it and have priced in a rate cut at around 50% in July and a whopping 88% in September, according to the CME Group.
USD/CAD tested support at 1.3492 earlier. Next, there is support at 1.3435
1.3580 and 1.3637 are the next resistance lines
EURUSD before NFPYesterday, the ECB expectedly raised interest rates by 0,25% and caused volatility in EURUSD.
Today is third day with important news.
With this news we expect the direction to be confirmed and to see more clear entry grounds.
The more likely direction for now, remains 1,1090 and upon a breakout to confirm the uptrend.
Drop below 1,0985 will mean that there is no strength for the upward movement to continue and we will look for lower values.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 05.05.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish at 2050.400 just above the Daily Resistance formed on 14th April 2023.
– Buys on close above 2056.800 targeting Daily Wick Fill formed yesterday (Thursday) at 2066.900, Leaving Runners to the March 2022 Monthly High at 2071.000.
– Sells on close below 2046.100 targeting Daily previous Resistance formed on 14th April 2023 at 2040.600, Leaving Runners to the 4h Support formed at 2034.600.
– High Impact News day ahead for the US Dollar and the US Economy, Average Hourly Earnings m/m forecasted to remain the same at 0.3%. Non-Farm Employment Change forecasted : 181k / previously was : 236k, Forecast increase to 3.6% from 3.5% on the Unemployment Rate.
DXY Potential Forecast | Unemployment Claims | 20th April 2023Fundamental Backdrop
1. Unemployment Claims comes out at 245k compared to a 240k forecasted.
2. This highlights a worsening labour market and a potential sign that of recession in the US.
3. This is bearish on the USD and we could see potential bearish continuations in the market.
Technical Confluences
1. Near-term resistance at 102.09.
2. Price rejected this H4 resistance level and we could potentially see price head further down to break the structural low at 100.79.
Idea
Looking for price to continue heading bearish to the level at 100.79.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.