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US30 - 28th to New month - NFP WEEK! Good Day mates Happy new week - even though its already Wednesday. Time away from the charts is always a good thing. This week we have major US news - Previous week liquidity all taken - Liquidity Gaps created - Bullish price action - Breaking previous highs Last week the 4hr flip zone (34679) held strong. Price respected this zone very much. Price kept sweeping sellside liquidity. im expecting price to push higher until Friday, we will see corrections as noted with the gaps however i strongly believe that a seek and destroy profile is on the cards this week Good Luck ! Trade safe and follow your rules
CAPITALCOM:US30
by KingDee57
3
Using FUNDAMENTALS as timing CONFLUENCE (NFP week)BIG PICTURE UPDATE: - We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024. - Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims - Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE - With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher with them (which is why I'm expecting XAU to head lower for now) SCENARIOS: - SCENARIO #1: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes) causing gold to peak by Wed and begin moving lower - SCENARIO #2: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes), yet gold will stubbornly rally/move sideways; in this case NFP will most likely be the launching point of this move lower _____________________________ - Scenario#1 is looking more likely at the moment. There are 2 orders I'm interested in placing for this trade (if the 1st fails, 2nd should work)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by XAUSpeculator
1
EURUSD Key levels pivotal as NFP nears The 4-hour chart on the EUR/USD displays a possible bearish bias, but there are some indications of consolidation after the small rebound observed on Friday. At present, the price is lingering around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). To improve its bullish outlook, it would be necessary for the Euro to hit 1.0840 and for other technical indicators (that have shifted away from their bearish inclination) to remain in its favor. The attention is now directed towards upcoming employment and inflation data. The JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by the ADP survey on private job creation, in anticipation of the Nonfarm Payrolls report to be unveiled on Friday. In the realm of European data, emphasis is also placed on inflation reports. Commencing Wednesday, Eurozone nations will commence the release of preliminary August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Additionally, on Tuesday, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence survey is set to be published. If there is a weekly closure in proximity to the current levels after the US jobs reports, it might embolden sellers in the next week, potentially opening the price zone around 1.0733. In the meantime, resistance could potentially be encountered at levels 1.0840 and 1.0910.
by BlackBull_Markets
🔴 #XAUUSD : Gold will fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining gold in the 4-hour time frame, we see that the price is still trading in the range of $1932! I have specified 2 scenarios on the chart, in both cases I expect gold to fall more, but due to the extreme fluctuations that will caused by the announcement of NFP changes, moves may be made to collect liquidity, so be careful! The ranges and important supply zone are $1934, $1939 to $1943, and $1947 to $1956, respectively! Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
62
GOLD/XAUUSD LONG/ BUY🔰 Pair Name: GOLD/XAUUSD 🔰 Time Frame: 1H/4H 🔰 Scale Type: SMALL Scale 🔰 Direction: LONG/BUY 📈 Fundamental Point of View 📉 Gold price experienced a strong rebound after the US NFP report fell short of expectations last Friday. In July, fresh payrolls were 187K lower than the consensus of 200K, although they were marginally higher than June's print of 185K. The market sentiment turned positive despite Fitch's downgrade of the US government long-term debt rating. 📊 Technical Point of View 📉 From a technical standpoint, Gold showed a significant bounce and closed the daily candle above the key daily support level at $1932 last Friday, driven by the unexpected and shocking low NFP data release. The price has also touched the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, which indicates a potential bullish momentum. We anticipate the gold price to make a solid cross above this level on the 1-hour candle chart and then retest the 23.6% Fibonacci level before aiming for the next resistance at the Fib level of 50% at a price of $1951.88 at the beginning of this week. 🚀📈 🔍 Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your research and consult a professional before making trading decisions. 🔍
TVC:GOLDLong
by Moon_SmartMoney
XAU/USD POINT OF REACTION 1946On gold, we have a bearish setup on both the weekly and daily charts. Occasionally, we have noticed that it is useful to look at clearer and more detailed timeframes. In both the weekly and daily charts, we precisely have a bearish setup with a resistance zone between 1960 and 2040. Within this zone, there is a demand area and a bearish trendline where the price has bounced before reversing course after a slight rally. Indeed, the price is now descending towards 1910, which is our key level that will act as support initially and then resistance once the price reaches the demand zone, which is between 1800 and 1840. We expect a rebound from that area with a target of 1910. Let us know what you think. Happy trading to everyone!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD EURUSD USDJPY NFP Multi-Chart AnalysisHi Traders! The Non-Farm Payrolls announcement led to weakness in the US dollar due to a weaker than expected number. The figure came in at 187k, which fell short of analysts' forecasted 205k, and markets have reacted strongly to the data announcement. We have a multi-chart analysis here on the 3H timeframe showing the current price action in the markets. Levels have been broken across the board on our indicators, and we could see potential trend reversals across the board. GBPUSD Our 20 EMA resistance was broken with momentum; however, we have found resistance at our upper Bollinger band around 1.27800. As long as the market stays above the 20 EMA, there may be another push towards the upper band to see if there is a possibility for continuation to the upside. EURUSD Our 20 EMA resistance was broken with momentum, and the upper band Bollinger resistance just above the 1.10100 level was also broken, which tells us that bullish momentum is currently very high. For a continuation to the upside, our best price action signal is to stay as close to the upper band as possible. USDJPY Our 20 EMA support was broken with momentum, the lower band Bollinger support around 142.00 was also broken, and we are currently back under the 142 handle. USDJPY is looking very weak at the moment, and we could potentially go back to 140 if we continue to stay below the 20 EMA.     Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
USD/CAD shrugs after soft nonfarm payrollsThe Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, up 0.06%. Canadian and US job numbers were soft today, but the Canadian dollar's reaction has been muted. After a stellar job report in June, the July numbers were dreadful. Canada's economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, compared to a 59, 900 gain in June. Full-time employment added a negligible 1,700 jobs, following a massive 109,600 in June. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5%, up from 5.4%. Perhaps the most interesting data was wage growth, which jumped 5% y/y in June, climbing from 3.9% in May. The rise is indicative of a tight labour market and will complicate the Bank of Canada's fight to bring inflation down to the 2% target. It was deja vous all over again, as nonfarm payrolls failed to follow the ADP employment report with a massive gain. In June, a huge ADP reading fuelled speculation that nonfarm payrolls would also surge, and the same happened this week. Both times, nonfarm payrolls headed lower, a reminder that ADP is not a reliable precursor to the nonfarm payrolls report. July nonfarm payrolls dipped to 187,000, very close to June reading of 185,000 (downwardly revised from 209,000). This marks the lowest level since December 2020. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, down from 3.6%. Wage growth stayed steady at 4.4%, above the consensus estimate of 4.2%. What's interesting and perhaps frustrating for the Fed, is that the jobs report is sending contradictory signals about the strength of the labour market. Job growth is falling, but the unemployment rate has dropped and wage growth remains strong. With different metrics in the jobs report telling a different story, it will be difficult for the Fed to rely on this employment report as it determines its path for future rate decisions. There is resistance at 1.3324 and 1.3394 1.3223 and 1.3182 are providing support
by OANDA
KOG REPORT - NFP NFP – KOG Report: This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. It’s been a decent week in Camelot, so today’s NFP it’s suggested we stay away, let them move the markets to where they want, once the price settles then look for the key levels together with a high probability set before getting back into the markets. New traders, this usually happens next week! We’ll start by saying we should be bullish in these months with Gold attempting to break the 2000 level, however, looking at the structure of the chart we can see they’re lining up for a big move. Now, we have the key levels below 1920-23 which is important for price to stay above to then attempt to target the order region 1950-55 above. If price is supported around the 1920-23 region, we feel price may attempt to recover and attack the 1950-55 price region. This region is where we may get a reaction in price, which based on resistance could represent an opportunity to short the market back down for the lower levels. These levels need to be watched for a break either side of the overall range, which is shown on the illustration. Key levels for NFP – Support: 1930 / 1925 / 1923 / 1920 on break lower into 1910-05 target region Resistance: 1935 / 1942 / 1950 / 1955 on break higher into 1985 target region Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
NFP Preview by FOREX.com • Dollar outlook hinges on NFP as Fed’s decision is data-dependent • Mixed NFP leading indicators and what are analysts expecting • Wage inflation in services still a problem for the Fed Employment reports are almost always important anyway, but this one is going to be even more so. Coming in a week before the CPI report, Friday’s jobs data is going to influence Fed’s policy, as Powell has made it quite clear that US monetary policy is now restrictive enough and that the next decision in September would be entirely data dependent. Until then, we will have two more inflation and a couple of jobs reports to consider, including this one. While the focus is clearly on inflation as employment is still very strong, any potential weakness in jobs data could cement expectations of a policy hold. But another surprisingly strong employment report would keep the threat of further Fed hikes alive. So, the dollar could move quite sharply this week, as the Fed is now watching data very closely in determining its next move on monetary policy. What are analysts expecting? • Headline jobs growth of 200K expected vs. 209K in June • Unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.6% • Average Hourly Earnings are seen printing +0.3% m/m vs. +0.4% last month or 4.2% y/y vs. 4.4% previously Mixed NFP leading indicators The leading indicators we have had this week have been quite mixed. While the ADP private sector payrolls report was strong, the employment components of both the ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs weakened. 1. ISM Services PMI • Headline: 52.7, Exp. 53.0, down from 53.9 • Employment 50.7, down 2.4 points from 53.1 in June • (Also, disinflation is already evidently ending in the services sector: Prices Paid was up - 56.8 from 54.1) 2. ISM manufacturing • Headline 46.4, Exp. 46.9, down from 46.0 • Employment 44.4, down 3.7 points from 48.1 in June 3. ADP private payrolls 324K vs. 191K eyed and 455K last The overall picture from the pre-NFP leading indicators point to a jobs report roughly in line with expectations. But if you look at the recent history of the nonfarm payrolls report, we have consistently seen better-than-expect results, although lately they have either been subsequently revised lower or in the case of the June report, missed expectations. Wage inflation in services still a problem for the Fed It is important to consider the whole picture and take into account average hourly earnings when it comes to trading the NFP. On the latter front, we have seen earnings increase by 4.4% year-on-year in April, May and June 2023. This shows that wage inflation is still going strong, and it is a concern for the Fed. This is especially the case for the services sector – which was also highlighted by the rise in prices paid index of the ISM services PMI. Another strong showing in wages data would be considered a dollar-bullish jobs report, even if we see a small miss in headline employment. Will USD continue pressing higher anyway? The further strengthening of the US dollar so far this week has nothing to do with the Fed’s expected policy decision. It has a lot to do with the sell-off in US bond market, especially at the long end of the curve. This has been triggered by that rating downgrade by Fitch, causing investors to demand more for the increased risks associated with holding Treasurys. While a US debt default is unthinkable, it could happen at some future point in time. So, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further increases in US bond yields in the near-term. It will be interesting to watch next week’s $103 billion bond auction. This will tell us a lot about investors’ willingness to hold government debt. That said, the correction potential for the dollar is now high, and investors may soon start selling USD once the dust settles down – and especially if Friday’s jobs report comes in weaker. What else will markets focus on? Once the jobs report is out of the way, investors will turn their attention towards more inflation data, due in the following week. As mentioned, we will have already had the wages data from the employment report, but CPI is going to be important next Thursday. US inflation has fallen sharply in recent times, printing below-forecast readings in each of the past 4 months. Annual CPI fell to just 3.0% in June from around 6.5% at the start of the year, increasing the likelihood that interest rates have now peaked. The Fed’s policy decision in September will be entirely data dependent. Until then, we will have one more inflation and jobs report after this. Any further weakening of CPI could cement expectations of a policy hold. NFP trade ideas: EUR/USD and S&P 500 If the employment and wages data come in lower, we would favour looking for long setups in the EUR/USD, while a stronger report would boost the appeal of the USD/CHF. A goldilocks report is what stock market investors would be looking for – something not too hot to warrant a rate increase, and not too cold to raise recession alarm bells. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
Non Farm Friday Prep4th August 2023 DXY: reacting along 102.55, depending on NFP today NZDUSD: Sell 0.6110 SL 25 TP 75 (dxy strength) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6575 SL 30 TP 60 (dxy strength) USDJPY: Sell 141.70 SL 30 TP 90 (dxy weakness) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2775 SL 35 TP 100 (dxy weakness, IHS) EURUSD: Sell 1.0930 SL 25 TP 50 (dxy strength) USDCHF: looking for a reaction along 0.88 Buy 0.8810 SL 20 TP 35 (dxy strength) Sell 0.8790 SL 20 TP 50 (dxy weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3395 SL 25 TP 65 (dxy strength) Gold: Break of support at 1930 to trade down to 1913
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Outlook for NFP AnnouncementHi Traders! USDJPY is trading with momentum ahead of tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) announcement, and we could see a break above the resistance level at 145.073, especially if the NFP data is strong. All of our indicators and price action analysis on the 1D chart are showing us that USDJPY is currently bullish. Since we had the break and close above our 20 EMA, the market has continued with strong momentum, and as long as we stay above the 20 EMA, we are likely to continue to the upside. We are now looking for a momentum break above the upper Bollinger band at the 144 level. The market is currently below the upper band, so we must get a break above the band to continue the bullish momentum. That being said, we must also be wary of the other side. We have pointed out a dragonfly doji on the chart, which, although it has a bullish bias to it, is still an indecision candle. Therefore, it is important to be wary of this, which is why we must get the break above the upper Bollinger band to continue the bullish momentum. Without the break above the upper band, the bullish momentum will likely fade, and the market is likely to pullback towards both the middle band and the 20 EMA. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
6
New Zealand dollar sinks after soft jobs reportThe New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6093, down 0.91%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a low of 0.6091, its lowest level since June 30th. The New Zealand labour market has been tight, despite aggressive tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Wednesday's employment report for the second quarter showed some softening, which has extended the New Zealand dollar's losses. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in the first quarter and above the consensus estimate of 3.5%. Wage growth eased to 4.3%, below the 4.5% reading in Q1 and the estimate of 4.4%. These numbers point to a weaker labour market, but Employment Change rose 1.0%, up from 0.8% in Q1 and above the estimate of 0.5%. The mixed numbers show that the labour market may have lost a step but still remains strong enough to bear further rate hikes from the RBNZ. In July, the central bank maintained the cash rate at 5.50% and meets next on August 16th. China released July PMIs this week, and the soft readings are weighing on the New Zealand dollar. China is New Zealand's largest trading partner and the New Zealand dollar is sensitive to Chinese economic releases. We'll get a look at the Caixin Services PMI on Thursday. The consensus estimate stands at 52.5, following a June reading of 53.9. A reading above 50.0 points to expansion. In the US, the ADP Employment report kicked off a host of job releases, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. ADP impressed with a gain of 327,000 for July, below the June reading of 455,000 but blowing past the consensus estimate of 189,000. A month ago, ADP came in at 497,000, fuelling speculation that nonfarm payrolls might follow suit with a strong release. In the end, nonfarm payrolls fell significantly, as expected. Will the NFP follow ADP's lead and crush the estimate? NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6093. Below, there is support at 0.6031 0.6184 and 0.6246 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/CAD slips after BoC rate hikeThe Canadian dollar has posted strong gains in Wednesday's North American session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3146, down 0.63%. On the economic calendar, it has been a busy day, with the Bank of Canada raising interest rates and US inflation falling lower than expected. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, bringing the cash rate to 5.0%. The BoC has delivered 475 basis points in hikes since March 2022 and the aggressive tightening has sent inflation lower. Still, the BoC's rate statement noted that it remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall and that it does not expect to hit the target before mid-2025. This can be considered a hawkish hike and the Canadian dollar has responded with strong gains on Wednesday. Wednesday's US inflation report should please the Federal Reserve, which has circled high inflation has enemy number one. The June release showed headline inflation falling to 3.0%, down from 4.0% in May. This beat the consensus estimate of 3.1% and was the lowest level since March 2021. Even more importantly, the core rate fell from 5.3% to 4.8%, below the consensus estimate of 5.0%. On a monthly basis, both the headline and core rate came in at 0.2%, below the consensus estimate. The inflation release was excellent news, but isn't expected to change the Fed's plans to raise rates at the July 27th meeting. The inflation data didn't change market pricing for the July meeting (92% chance of a hike), but did raise the chances of a September hike from 72% prior to the inflation release to 80% after the release. Although the jobs report on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls declining considerably, wage growth was higher than expected and likely convinced the Fed to raise rates at the July meeting before taking a pause. There is resistance at 1.3191 and 1.3289 1.3105 and 1.3049 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD eyes UK employment reportThe British pound has drifted lower on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2827 in the European session, down 0.09%. The UK labour market remains resilient despite a cooling economy and high interest rates. Tuesday's June jobs report is expected to show strong numbers. The economy is expected to produce 158,000 jobs in June, after a banner reading of 250,000 in May. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at a low 3.8% and unemployment claims are expected to continue declining. Wage growth is expected to rise to 6.8%, up from 6.5%. That sounds like great news, but not when you're the Bank of England and need the labour market to show some cracks and wage growth to slow down. A tight labor market and strong wage growth have hampered efforts by the central bank to lower inflation and the OECD said last week that the UK was the only major economy where inflation is still rising. The May inflation report was a disappointment, with headline inflation remaining at 8.7% and the core rate rising from 6.8% to 7.1%. BoE Governor Bailey will likely comment on the job numbers and investors will be looking for clues about the BoE's plans at the August 3rd meeting. The BoE has raised rates to 5.0%, but more tightening will be needed in order to curb inflation and the money markets have fully priced in a peak rate of 6.5% by February. The US dollar was broadly lower against the major currencies on Friday, after nonfarm payrolls slid to 209,000, below from the downwardly revised reading of 306,000 in May but not far from the 225,000 consensus estimate. The downturn may have surprised many investors who were caught up in the hype of a massive ADP employment release which showed a gain of 497,000. There was speculation of a blowout nonfarm payroll reading but in the end, the consensus estimate was close and the US dollar was broadly lower on expectations that the Fed could be close to winding up its rate-tightening cycle. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2782 earlier today. The next support level is 1.2716 There is resistance at 1.2906 and 1.2972
by OANDA