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DXY Potential Forecast | Pre CPI | 14th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Employments was good, well above the forecasted or what the market has been pricing in. 3. However, average hourly earnings increased at a decreasing rate to 0.2% from 0.3%. 4. This shows the slowing down of the wage inflation , which is directly correlated with the inflation print and numbers, showing an important signal/sign that inflation could be worse off. 5. In addition, unemployment rate increased by 0.2% compared to previous months. 6. The average earnings and unemployment rate prints showcases the effect of the continuous rate hikes that the Fed has partaken in. 7. This directly discourages the Fed from taking on a more hawkish stance in the market, upon seeing the fruition of the restrictive policy the Fed has performed. CPI 1. If CPI were to be worse off than forecasted, this really solidifies the bearishness of the USD as it confirms that the Fed policy has been coming to fruition and there might not be a need to hike interest rates anymore. 2. However, if CPI print continues to be resilient and strong or greater than expectations, there is a marked chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by 50bps in the upcoming FOMC meeting, in which this hawkish stance will continue to drive the market bullish for the USD. 3. All eyes will be on the CPI print tonight. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
GBP - Weekly/Daily close will be key! GBP - Weekly/Daily close will be key! GBPUSD - At a very key resistance, we have NFP today that will shift the market. We did have GDP m/m Bullish 0.3 Higher than expected. I think when it comes to GBP there are very bearish views when it comes to there fundamentals and there rate hikes but I don't think the situation as bad as it's considered. What does this mean and how can we trade this opportunity? Well, we can first wait for daily close and see how we close and perhaps wait for pull back and get in long taking us back towards key resistance areas of 1.21 half areas and target areas 1.23. However, if we are fail to close above we are back within the range until further clarification. Don't forget to check minor pairs such as EURGBP & GBPAUD as commodity FX is lagging there are plenty of trading opportunities, including GB10Y W set up. Now we do have NFP, if that beats expectation we could get pull back in GBP. However, if it comes out lower than expected NFP I expect dxy to decline and majors to rise. And see how price reacts if it beats expectations and by how much and vice versa - that's what is very key! Now regarding GBP technical view: High: 1.21560 Low: 1.18420 Pattern: Wedge/Channel A break above the highs and 200/50 EMA I expect further bullish momentum and target area of 1.23 areas. If we are to break below of 1.18 handle then 1.15 is still on the table. However, at this current moment of time we are within the ranges and we have to respect that, in addition you could even go to lower time frame of 4hr and get better price! Trade safe and have a great weekend! Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 13th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP print came out 311k vs 224k forecasted. 2. Average hourly earnings m/m printed 0.2% compared to 0.3% forecasted. 3. Unemployment rate came out at 3.6% vs 3.4% forecasted. 4. Resulted in heavy bearish USD sentiments due to the wage inflation decreasing and unemployment rate increasing. 5. This shows the effects of rate hikes by the Fed and hence sentiments believe that the Fed now has lesser incentive to hike by 50bps in the upcoming FOMC. 6. All eyes will now be on CPI release this week and if CPI drops, we could see further downside pressure on the DXY. 7. On the EURO side of things, if Fed were to hike by 25bps in the next FOMC meeting, we can see a clear interest rate differential between EUR and the USD, giving more room for EURUSD appreciation. Technical Confluences 1. Strong bullish momentum coming in from EURUSD. 2. Price has broken the H4 resistance (now support) at 1.06912. 3. Price is resting well above the ichimoku cloud as well, showing the strong bullish intent. Idea Price can potentially come lower to tap into the key support level at 1.069. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
DXY Potential Forecast | Post NFP | 13th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP print came out 311k vs 224k forecasted. 2. Average hourly earnings m/m printed 0.2% compared to 0.3% forecasted. 3. Unemployment rate came out at 3.6% vs 3.4% forecasted. 4. Resulted in heavy bearish USD sentiments due to the wage inflation decreasing and unemployment rate increasing. 5. This shows the effects of rate hikes by the Fed and hence sentiments believe that the Fed now has lesser incentive to hike by 50bps in the upcoming FOMC. 6. All eyes will now be on CPI release this week and if CPI drops, we could see further downside pressure on the DXY. Technical Confluences 1. Price reacted from a H4 resistance zone at 104.6 and has since went lower. 2. Very strong bearish pressure from Monday's asian open. 3. Price action has shifted market structure to bearish. 4. Would be appropriate to look for short positions on the USD. Idea Price can potentially come lower to tap into the key support level at 102.65. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
We now wait for NFP!We now wait for the NFP! Here we have the silver chart in-front of us! We are currently within the range of lows: 19.800 highs: 20.450, Pattern: Triangle/ Bear flag If we are to go above key resistance area and above 50EMA + TL resistance I expect first target to be 20.750 areas and then 200 EMA areas which is around next resistance zone of 21.400. However, we are to decline with a strong NFP, I expect 19.500/400 to be your target areas. Regarding NFP checking the other data as well, see the differential of it and is it at a vast numeric change. Trade Journal
FX:XAGUSD
by Trade_Journal
NAS100 Monthly We all know the federal reserve are trying to fight inflation . Last nfp on febuary 3rd 2023 came out hot 517k , this is scary for the federal reserve as they were hiking interest rates at .25 now they are looking at a possible 50bs . If price close below 10927.0 on the weekly there is a high probability, we could CRASH . The daily timeframe is maintaining structure creating LH and LL. Jerome powell will crash the markets to get inflation at 2% the targeted goal he dont care.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by DwayneOTSchartzzz
EUR/USD Set To Record Second Straight Weekly Gain After NFPThe EUR/USD pair advanced on Friday as the dollar weakened across the board following February's nonfarm payroll report release. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading above its opening price at 1.0655, up 0.73%on the day, having reached a three-week high of 1.0700 in the aftermath of the report. After bouncing two-month lows earlier this week, the pair has dodged a bullet and is on track to post its second weekly gain in a row. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 311,000 jobs in February, beating the market's consensus of 205,000 but down from the stunning January reading of 504,000 (revised from 517,000). On the other hand, wage inflation, measured by the average hourly earnings, slowed to 4.6% YoY, below the market's expectations of 4.7%. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.6% from its previous reading of 3.4%. The mixed job report tempered expectations of a 50 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the March 21, 22 meeting. Odds of a 50 bps increase have fallen to around 40% from above 60% before the nonfarm payrolls data. Additionally, the shutdown of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) by U.S. authorities on Friday raised concerns about the financial system, putting lower rate increases back on the table. Against this backdrop, U.S. bond yields have fallen sharply, with the 10-year yield at 3.71%. The 2-year rate has dropped to 4.63% from above 5% earlier this week. Wall Street main indexes are posting losses of more than 1% each. Next week's U.S. Consumer Price Index figures will also be key in shaping expectations ahead of the FOMC decision. From a technical viewpoint, the EUR/USD short-term bias has improved, as indicators are entering positive territory on the daily chart, while the price has regained the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break above the 1.0700 level would pave the way to a steeper recovery, targeting the 1.0800 zone. On the other hand, short-term support levels could be found at 1.0570, 1.0530 (100-day SMA) and the 1.0500 psychological level.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
NASDAQ Trading Alert: Technical Setup and NFP Impact AnalysisAs we approach the upcoming non-farm payroll (NFP) report this Friday, there is a setup on the NASDAQ that's worth noting. However, I won't be taking any trades at the moment due to the potential impact of the NFP report on the market. Nonetheless, I'll still provide some technical insights to keep you informed. It's worth keeping in mind that if the NFP beats expectations, this could potentially send the NASDAQ back to the downside. With that said, let's take a closer look at the technical side of things. Recently, the NASDAQ has broken a higher time frame trendline and created a continuation pattern. If we see clear price action and a reclamation of our "Key Zone," there may be an opportunity for more upside. However, it's essential to exercise caution as this is a risky setup. It's important to manage any trades carefully, especially given the potential market impact of the NFP report. By doing so, traders can mitigate potential losses and take advantage of any potential gains. So, good luck traders and stay vigilant! We hope this analysis helps you make informed decisions in your trading activities.
ULong
by natron
AUDUSD Outlook 10th March 2023Overnight, the AUDUSD traded down to the 0.6568 support level despite the overall downward move on the DXY. As the price failed to break the support level, a brief move to the upside could be likely. However, if the DXY recovers in strength from the release of positive NFP data, the AUDUSD could continue with the trend and trade significantly lower, down to the next key support level of 0.6430. Alternatively, if the AUDUSD rises beyond the 0.6635 price level, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, further upside could be anticipated, with the key resistance at the 0.67 round number price level. Ultimately, the next directional bias for the AUDUSD will be highly dependent on the outcome of the NFP later today.
by JinDao_Tai
2
DXY Potential Forecast | 10th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP due today at 930pm GMT +8. 2. NFP print and average earnings will be key to the direction of the USD. 3. Fed Powell's speech that "Fed is prepared to speed up rate rises if warranted by data releases", resulted in strong bullish pressure on DXY and USD across markets. 4. A few US data releases has coincided nicely with Powell's speech. 5. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 242000 jobs compared to a forecasted 197000 and 119000 previous. Technical Confluences 1. Price is still in a retracement. 2. All eyes on NFP tonight at 930pm GMT +8. 3. Anticipating for price to head higher to clear further levels above. Idea I will be looking for price to continue its bullish momentum in the market. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by OlympusLab
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 10th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP due today at 930pm GMT +8. 2. NFP print and average earnings will be key to the direction of the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently retracing and have retraced to the 0.382 on the fibonacci levels. 2. Price can potentially tap into the key support level at 1.04655. 3. Price is still in a bearish trend and I will be looking for price to create a new low. Idea I will be looking for price to continue its bearish momentum in the market and to tap into the key support level at 1.04655. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
DXY Outlook 10th March 2023Overnight, the DXY continued its retrace to the downside after having tested the 105.88 price level, following the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell (he indicated that the Federal Reserve was ready to speed up interest rate hikes if the data warranted). The DXY rebounded briefly early in the trading session today with the price testing the near-term support turned resistance level of 105.36. However, the DXY is likely to consolidate along the current level with some downside potential. Watch out for higher volatility on the DXY today with the NFP due to be released. The previous release was 517k, with current forecast at 224k. A stronger-than-expected release could see the DXY retest the 105.88 resistance level again. Alternatively, if the DXY breaks below the 105 support level due to bad news from the NFP, the next key support level is at 104.10
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
XAUUSD | GOLD | DECRYPTERS | NFP Hi people welcome to team DECRYPTERS Today we will discuss nfp trade plan " TECHNICAL ASPECTS " -- initial bullish strucutre -- bouncing from 0.618 fibo -- bouncing from 200 daily ema -- SMC involved (recent smc reversal as j-s) --Bearish harmonic pattern forming (last leg remaining to the up side ) --0.618 fibo level target -- VIX 21 % up side (expecting reversal) --DXY liquidity grab done , now expecting move to the down side --LASTLY , tomorrow is Friday " FUNDAMENTAL REASONS " -- Last NFPdata was up 50% - 60% of avg nfp data( 300k) -- if we look at pump ( we should expect some retracement) --thursday unemployment data shows more people un employedmeaning less people at nfp so expecting less data.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by DECRYPTERS
EUR/USD Stages Mild Recovery Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls The EUR/USD pair is taking a breather on Thursday, consolidating at the mid-1.0500 area, as investors continue to ponder Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish testimony before the U.S. Congress and ahead of the critical nonfarm payrolls report (NFP). At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0575 area, 0.3% above its opening price, after striking a two-month low of 1.0524 on Wednesday. The mild recovery in the pair comes on the back of a moderate pullback in the dollar, weighed by the retreat in U.S. bond yields. Following Powell's testimony, expectations of a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed at the March meeting increased, which sent the EUR/USD to two-month lows. According to the WIRP tool, investors are betting on higher probabilities of 77% of a 50 bps hike at the next meeting that would take the federal funds rates to 5.25%. Still, on Thursday, U.S. initial jobless claims data showed 211,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending on March 3, above the 195,000 expected, suggesting a little "pain" in the labor market ahead of the government jobs report. Markets could face volatility on Friday after February's NFP report, as Jerome Powell stated over the last two days that employment and inflation data would determine the next FOMC decision. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a neutral to slightly bearish bias on the daily chart as indicators stand flat on negative territory, while the price bounced from an ascending 100-day SMA but remains capped below the 20-day SMA. On the downside, a break below the 1.0525 (100-day SMA) could pave the way for a retest of the 1.0500 level en route to year-to-date lows at the 1.0480 zone. On the other hand, the 1.0600 psychological mark and the 20-day SMA at 1.0630 line up as immediate resistance levels ahead of 1.0700.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
1
Pre-NFP Analysis | 9th March 2023Fundamental Context 1. Fed Powell's speech that "Fed is prepared to speed up rate rises if warranted by data releases", resulted in strong bullish pressure on DXY and USD across markets. 2. A few US data releases has coincided nicely with Powell's speech. 3. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 242000 jobs compared to a forecasted 197000 and 119000 previous. 4. JOLTS Job Openings came out at 10.82m compared to a forecasted 10.58m, beating expectations. 5. All eyes will be on NFP releasing tomorrow. 6. Given the recent strong USD fundamental news release, there is reason to believe that the NFP print will come out stronger than expected, which will highlight the resilience of the US economy once again. At Olympus Lab, we believe that the USD can continue heading bullish in the market. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by OlympusLab
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | PRE-NFP | 9th March 2023Welcome back guys. In today's analysis, I will be talking about GOLD and the future where price can be headed towards. GOLD has fell a whopping 485 pips since the start of the week. Fundamental backdrop 1. GOLD's strong bearish pressure was credited to Fed Powell's speech that "Fed is prepared to speed up rate rises if warranted by data releases". 2. Since then, not just has GOLD fell close to 500 pips , a few US data releases has coincided nicely with Powell's speech. 3. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 242000 jobs compared to a forecasted 197000 and 119000 previous. 4. JOLTS Job Openings came out at 10.82m compared to a forecasted 10.58m, beating expectations. 5. All eyes will be on NFP releasing tomorrow. 6. Given the recent strong USD fundamental news release, there is reason to believe that the NFP print will come out stronger than expected , which will highlight the resilience of the US economy once again. Technical context 1. Price reacted off a key supply zone at 1856 odds and since fell close to 500 pips. 2. Key level of resistance at 1830 odds is an area I will be looking at for short opportunities. 3. Another great confluence to have is for current price to break the low at 1804.82 first before retracing up. 4. This would serve as a break of structure. 5. Target #1 has been marked out at 1766 and if NFP comes out to be strong again, we can see added bullish pressure onto USD and bearish continuations onto GOLD. Risk management 1. However, if NFP print comes out poor, we can see the whole bullish pressure on USD being overtaken by the bears as the market has not priced in a poor NFP print and the market sentiments surrounding the USD will shift. This will be the pre NFP chart analysis on GOLD. Trade safe everyone. Market has been extremely data driven since the past year or so. Risk safely. Let me know in the comments if you guys would want to see a post NFP forecast. Regards, Chern Yu
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jon_Jones_Junior
7