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Oil prices caught in dollar's game, ahead of NFPOil prices are like a game of poker right now, with players trying to figure out what everyone else is holding. There's the China reopening story, OPEC's card tricks, SPR releases and refills, and the dollar's royal flush. It's a high stakes game, but the pot is huge! Traders are watching NFP and CPI data like hawks, looking for any tells that might indicate which way oil prices are headed. Powell's hawkish comments have only upped the ante, with the markets going all in on a 50-point rate hike. Will they be able to bluff their way to a win? For now, oil prices are stuck in a tight range of 73.00 to 82.50, like a hand with no pairs or straights. But there's still hope for a lucky break! You could try raising the stakes by buying a bounce off of the 73.00 level or buying a break of the 82.50 level. If you're feeling lucky, why not both? A break above 82.50 could mean a jackpot, while a break below 73.00 could signal a bust. So grab your lucky rabbit's foot and get ready to play the oil price game! Keep your eyes peeled for any new cards on the table and you just might hit the jackpot.
TVC:USOILLong
by natron
1
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 6th March - 10th March 2023Hi everyone, CY back with another forecast. Let's prepare for a heavy and potentially volatile week ahead! Today's forecast will be for the upcoming week and the general direction where price can potentially head too with EURUSD. Let me begin.. Fundamental context 1. Next week will be an important week for the USD and there will be the NFP data release that determines the job/labor market in the US. 2. Given Jan's whopping NFP print of 517k jobs , will the job market continue its resilience and stay strong consistently? Or was the month of January just an anomaly? 3. EUR is also riddled with plenty of economic news and data releases such as the retail sales m/m and CPI news release. 4. Mixed sentiments surrounding the USD due to the "hot and cold" data news releases , from the poor durable goods orders m/m due to Boeing, to the decent ISM manufacturing index and to the weakening consumer confidence in the US. 5. However, next week will provide a confirmation to the upcoming bias for the dollar. MY PERSONAL TAKE I believe the USD will continue strengthening . The economy in the US has proved far more resilient than ever and the 517000 jobs added for the month of January was not due to an anomaly and there were gains in almost all sectors of the job market. If there is one thing, never bet against the USD. Technical context 1. Price has been stuck in a 158.2 pip range. 2. On the HTF, EURUSD is still on a bearish trend. 3. However, on the H1 timeframe, EU is on a bullish trend. 4. Price has already swept buy-side and sell-side liquidity as marked by "liquidity taken". 5. Price is currently hovering at a LTF supply zone. (expected to be broken due to Monday's asian opening volume) 6. Price can continue heading up to clear the HTF buy-side liquidity as marked by the red line, which will then come back lower to sweep the HTF sell-side liquidity. 7. Inducement has been marked which serves as a greater confluence for price to tap into. Thanks for tuning into my forecast on the upcoming week. Pleasure to have you all here. Best Regards, CY
Short
by Jon_Jones_Junior
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 8th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Fed Powell mentioned yesterday that the Fed will not hesitate to hike rates at a faster pace if data shows the resilience of inflation and the US economy. 2. This resulted in strong bearish pressure and momentum coming into EURUSD. Technical Confluences 1. Price has officially broken structure. 2. Lower highs and lower lows has been formed. 3. There is a high probability that price can tap into the key support at 1.0465. Idea I will be looking for price to continue its bearish momentum in the market and for price to tap into the H4 support level at 1.0465. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
1
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 7th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP this week will solidify the bias for GOLD. 2. There have been alot of bullish sentiments in the market surrounding GOLD. Technical Confluences 1. Price has followed our previous forecast and have broken the H4 resistance (now support) at 1846. 2. Price have retraced and looks good to continue heading up to tap into the next H4 resistance at 1862. 3. Price is hovering well above the ichimoku cloud, signifying strong bullish intent in the market. 4. All eyes will be on NFP this Friday to dictate the future direction on GOLD. Idea If NFP comes out to be worse than expected, we can see bullish pressure coming in onto GOLD. However, if NFP comes out good, signifying the resilient economy of the US, price can flip bearish for GOLD. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 7th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Given Jan's whopping NFP print of 517k jobs, will the job market continue its resilience and stay strong consistently? Or was the month of January just an anomaly? 2. EUR is also riddled with plenty of economic news and data releases such as the retail sales m/m and CPI news release. 3. Mixed sentiments surrounding the USD due to the "hot and cold" data news releases, from the poor durable goods orders m/m due to Boeing , to the decent ISM manufacturing index and to the weakening consumer confidence in the US. 4. However, NFP will provide a confirmation to the upcoming bias for the dollar. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently rejecting off the H4 resistance at 1.0685. 2. Price could potentially retrace to the next LTF support at 1.0622 where the ichimoku cloud lies which can also serve as a dynamic support. Idea Price could potentially tap into 1.0622 before heading back up. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
NFP week and -0.10% Japan interest rate thoughtsJapan interest rate is at -0.1% vs UK interest rate 4% Where will large funds being swinging to, for better yields? Is there a possibility that an investor from Japan borrows money from local bank at very low interest rates, invest it in foreign asset classes for profiteering purposes? What will happen to the desirability of Japanese Yen vs other G7 currencies with higher interest rates e.g. Europe, USA, Canada, Switzerland, Australia & New Zealand? Technical wise, beautiful consolidation taking place above H1 Imbalance, slowly creating bullish structure. Guess what will likely transpire this/next week? Having said that, several US high impact news this week and NFP Friday. Its going to get rough and wild. By Sifu Steve @ XeroAcademy
Long
by XeroAcademy
2
DAX - Up Up & Away!DAX We've had European indices out-perform compared to US indices, this would be due to international opportunities increase this has been executing for while a hedge against US, we look at US yields we are 5% roughly now that into consideration of going into US indices the need of making a return is relative high, now compared to the opportunities and growth of Europe! In my previous posts you can see FTSE100 that idea playing out well. Now I am sharing the DAX chart as I think we could even re-test those highs that has been tested couple times, a break through key resistance where we are currently at the momentum is still on long side and targets would be 16250 areas and look that 1.618 Fib. However, if we break below 15150 areas and break out down side of this beautiful channel then I'd expect 50 EMA areas to be your target areas. My thoughts overall, we really need pay attention to DXY where that's going to play further, daily close perhaps below of ranges we are at a pull back will occur but we do have NFP and if that is above let's say 220k and is strong number higher expect DXY to rally yields, and we also need to take not only NFP into consideration this week, let's not forget next week we have CPI. Take in all this important US data, and then we need think is market still pricing just 25 basis point hike or will we go 50, currently its pricing 25...Time will tell! I still think housing crises will increase and the automotive industry will face further issues. Key tip: Don't forget to look at the bigger picture! Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
XETR:DAX
by Trade_Journal
Key news events for the weekIt might be a big week head for the markets. Monday CHF CPI data release. The inflation gauge for the Swiss is expected to be lower than previous, signaling a slowdown in inflation growth. Could result in some weakness in the CHF if markets anticipate no more rate hikes to come from the SNB. Tuesday Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Another 25bps rate hike to come? However, the AUDUSD has often traded lower following the release of the news. Could the same thing happen again? Fed Chair Powell testifies during the US session. This could lead to increased volatility on the DXY, but watch what Powell says! Pivot? Or continue with the rate increases? Wednesday Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to hold rates at 4.50%. Unlikely that we'll see a surprise given how recent Canadian CPI has been released lower than previous (signaling a possible reversal in inflation). Friday Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision. This is Kuroda's last monetary policy meeting as Governor. While a surprise is unlikely, he might lay the foundations for his predecessor. Expect significant volatility on the Japanese Yen. Since it is the first Friday of the month, look out for the release of the US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP). The data shouldn't surprise like the previous month, however, some stability in the employment data could see markets reconsider the FOMC's stance on further rate hikes, leading the DXY to trade lower. Whatever the news, watch out for my daily posts on the specific currency pairs as I update you on possible setups and price levels. Also, tune in to the Daily Live Stream at 3pm (GMT+8)!
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
4
XAUUSD SHORT BIAS IDEAHello all! Once again my projection played out perfectly (last week XAUUSD video analysis). Now, retracement is playing out, looking at the next Daily Supply Zone (refined to 4H), GOLD is heading towards the zone! I will look to enter on a CONFIRMATION ENTRY ONLY! I will look for LIQUIDITY to build up just below (Potential outcome), then monitor LTF for a POI to follow the next leg down on GOLD! In other cases, GOLD may just push up, and mitigate the zone before NFP, and sell hard after NFP release! But, we will see! We can only project the market! :) Take care!
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by NeddFx13
USDCAD: Top of the range?Looking back over this pair, it's been ranging for a long time. The candlestick patterns are clearly showing rejection, we now have a doji to back up the change of direction potential. Fundamentally it seems hat it doesn't matter how good the US news is, the dollar's fate is sealed. Interesting to see how NFP goes on Friday (but still can't see it getting much past 105.5 even with positive news). I'll probably wait on this pair until after the event has calmed down before getting involved. Overall I'm bearish on this, waiting for a good entry for at least a 4:1 score initially, but think it'll go further.
Short
by Finchcliffe
1
Looking ahead into March 2023 (DXY)In February, we saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) reject the 100.85 price area to climb strongly to the upside due to several key events 1) Federal Reserve hiked rates to 4.75%. Although the initial reaction was a big drop to test the low of 100.85, the comments accompanying the rate decision indicated that further rate increases could be expected as inflation has eased but remains elevated. 2) Surprising Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) A massive surprise to the market with a print of 517K (Forecast: 193K) this signaled that the US economy was still performing strongly, despite the ongoing interest rate increases. The DXY shot up to test the 103.75 price level over the next couple of days following the NFP release. 3) Elevated Consumer Price Index (CPI) Markets were widely anticipating that US inflation growth should have slowed down from 6.5% to 6.2%. However, the CPI data was released at 6.4%, which indicated a slight slowdown (just not as much as anticipated). This played to the previous narrative from the FOMC that while inflation was easing, it was still elevated. With an increased likelihood that the FOMC would continue with its interest rate hikes, the DXY climbed steadily to the upside, breaking the 103.75 level to climb steadily up to the 105.50 resistance level. Now as we head into March and the DXY is retracing from the 105.50 price level, where could prices head to? In the lead up to the major news events, the DXY could continue to retrace lower to retest the 104 price level and support area. 1) Will we see a repeat surprise on the NFP? It is probably unlikely that we'll get a massive surprise again for the NFP this month. However, any positive data release could see the DXY renew its climb to the upside. 2) Focus is on the CPI As indicated above, February's CPI was released at 6.4% which was higher than expected. A similar release this month would pretty much cement the Federal Reserve's decision regarding a rate hike, bringing further upside to the DXY. 3) Federal Funds Rate In the recently released meeting minutes, it was highlighted that while all members supported a 25bps rate hike, some would have supported a decision to raise rates by 50bps. This shows a level of hawkishness within the FOMC, which could be crucial in the decision this month. Employment and CPI data would be the deciding factor between a 25 or 50bps rate hike. However, remember that the terminal rate is 5.25% and with rates at 4.75%, we are very close!! We'll have to pay attention to comments regarding a shift in the terminal rates and increased speculation about a pivot to come from the FOMC. Based on the points discussed above, I am anticipating overall further upside for the DXY, but Price could first retest the 103.75 to 104 support area. If the support level holds, this could be a good base for price to rebound and trade back toward the 105.50 resistance area. Beyond that, the next resistance level is at 107. Alternatively, if the price breaks strongly below 104, then the next support level at 102.60 would come into play.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
6
GBPZAR SHORTThe XA leg of the Harmonic is a Double top in itself. The huge wicks on that leg suggests large institutional volumes trapped in that region. The CD leg just broke through the last order block and we see a confluence on the 1.272 Fib and 2.000 Fib where the CD leg completes. The H1 also gives a beautiful crab pattern competing around the same region. I would say this move may wait for the release oof Non-farm data for a violent take off in the Bearish side and if not enough volume is taken then we may see a retest and a gradual Bearish movement.
Short
by harveygoldfx
1
$USDJPY: Dollar reversal?I suspect we are seeing a large scale reversal in the dollar, which will be further confirmed if CPI favors renewed hawkishness surpassing current consensus estimates (consensus was already shaken by NFP yesterday, and would be further shocked if CPI allows Powell to keep hiking for longer than expected, or even do larger hikes as well). The BOJ governor change is looming as well, and with it the retirement of YCC apparently (yield curve controls). Overall, a decent trade if you need to hedge some equity risk in your portfolio or if you are an avid Forex trader already. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
AUDUSD:Potential Breakout due to strong USD envrionmentHey Traders, based on the last strong NFP numbers that were out of expectations with 517,000 new jobs created in January, retail sales smashing expectations of 1.9% with 3%, CPI and other strong USD data we can notice that the market is pricing more rate hikes, and we expect the USD to continue outperforming until the next fed decision on March that will clarify more the USD path. in case of a breakout on AUDUSD chart i would monitor a retrace around 0.685 zone. i would also like to give a risk management advice to traders, i personally risk between 0.5% to 2% per trade so even if i'm in the wrong path that would take me a bunch of consecutive losing trades to get my account marginated which is too far. so for example if you risk 1% per trade that will take you more than a hundred consecutive losing trades to lose your account. but if you risk 10 times the recommended amount for example a 20% risk per trade that means 4-5 consecutive losing trades will knock your account out from the market. Please feel free to ask me questions regarding fundamentals and technicals in the comment section! Trade safe, Joe. source of USD data: www.forexfactory.com
Short
by JoeChampion
26
EUR/USD dips to 1-month lowThe euro has fallen for three straight sessions and has extended its losses on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 line for the first time since Jan. 23. German and eurozone numbers have been soft this week, adding to the euro's woes. Eurozone retail sales fell 2.7% in December, worse than the estimate of -2.5% and well off the November read of 1.2%. German Industrial Production came in at -3.2% in December, down from 0.4% in November and below the expectation of -0.6%. Germany is the locomotive of the bloc but the engine is stuttering, which is bad news for the rest of the eurozone. GDP in Q4 contracted by 0.2%, retail sales for December slumped by 5.3% and Manufacturing PMI remains mired in contraction territory. The US dollar received a much-needed boost from the January nonfarm payroll report, as the 517,000 gain crushed expectations. There are no major releases out of the US today, but Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone, the US dollar could extend its gains. There are a host of Fed members speaking this week, and if they reiterate the "higher for longer" stance that the Fed continues to embrace, the US dollar could continue to move north. How will the Fed react to the stellar employment report?  Fed member Mary Daly called the employment release a "wow number" and said that the Fed's December forecast of a peak rate of 5.1% was a "good indicator" of Fed policy. With the benchmark rate currently at 4.5%-4.75%, we're likely looking at two more rate hikes, exactly what Jerome Powell said at the FOMC meeting last week. The spike in job creation has raised hopes that the Fed can pull off a "soft landing" and there is even talk on Wall Street of a "no landing" which would mean that a recession could be avoided. 1.0758 is a weak support line, followed by 1.0633 There is resistance at 1.0873 and 1.0954
by OANDA
AUDUSD: TP2 SUCCESSFULLY HITThe market closed at 0.69205 on Friday following the drop that resulted from NFP, just a couple of pips before hitting my TP2 at 0.69078. I cought the trade right from its inception. TP1 was hit at 0.69979. . Then 0.69078 was finally hit as price pushed down slightly before bouncing back up. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price action, risk management, and patience are extremely important in this business.
by SMCSmartSniper1