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EUR/USD Erases Weekly Gains After Impressive NFP ReportThe U.S. dollar bounced sharply on Friday, reversing weekly losses against the euro as a stunning nonfarm payrolls report boosted expectations the Fed would stick to its hawkish stance. U.S. yields, and the greenback, jumped after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, beating by far the market consensus of 185,000, almost doubling December’s 260,000 gain. Other details of the nonfarm payrolls report showed the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4% from 3.5% the previous month, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, eased to 4.4% in January. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.0810, 0.9% below its opening price, extending its pullback from the post-Fed 1.1032 high. The pair is also poised to post a weekly loss of 0.5%. Following the solid job figures, U.S. Treasury yields soared across the curve, propelling the dollar’s rally. The 2, 5 and 10-year bond rates rose around 4% each, to 4.27%, 3.64% and 3.51%, respectively. In addition, markets are fully pricing in a 25 bps hike in March, while at the beginning of the session, there were some bets of the Fed not hiking. Earlier in the session, S&P Global data from the Eurozone showed that January Global Composite PMI rose to 50.3 versus the 50.2 expected, while the Services PMI jumped to 50.8, also beating the consensus of 50.7. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a positive outlook on the weekly chart. However, the shorter-term perspective has deteriorated after last sessions’ pullback. The price has slid below the 20-day SMA but holds above the 100- and the 200-day SMAs, which are about to complete a bullish crossover. Furthermore, indicators show increasing bearish interest as the RSI plummeted near its midline while the MACD prints higher red bars. A close below the 20-day SMA could add some pressure over the pair, exposing following support areas at 1.0800 and 1.0770. On the other hand, the next resistance levels line up at 1.0900, followed by 1.1035 and 1.1085.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
1
USDJPY I NFP Results! Goal Achieved!💰Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY NFP Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
15
NFP set to be Bearish, Here's Why 😉👇After some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉 NOTE: NOTICED MY FIRST POST HAD 2 CHARTS OVERLAPPING, THIS IS A REPOST
UShort
by XeroxFTC
2
NFP set to be Bearish on NASDAQ 👇😉, Here's WhyAfter some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉
UShort
by XeroxFTC
NFP Possible opportunity and trading setupsToday's NFP print is coming in 2h and 30m, trading plan following. In the last couple of days we got higher Labor data with Jobless claims, Jolts data printing way better than market expectations, and these 2 components fit into the NFP this might mean that on the aggregate the 185K US NFP estimation might be slightly higher than that. Anyways, let's move into the NFP now. The bulk of market participants are between 150-200K and for exaggerated movements, we should look for anything below 150K for US$ shorting or 200K for US$ long. As a second layer of risk, we can use 125K to the downside and 225K to the upside which will give us the ultimate trading conviction. US NFP printing higher than 200K (Risk x1) US NFP printing higher than 225K (Risk x2) EURUSD - GBPUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔽 USDJPY 🔼 US NFP printing lower than 150K (Risk x1) US NFP printing lower than 125K (Risk x2) NZDUSD - AUDUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔼 -Extra notes- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) and Unemployment rate need to be considered as a second layer of conviction into this trade setup... They are similarly essential and if they give a very different picture than NFP then we should be considering this in our analysis and either deduct any risk from our positions or even close our positions after all. Average hourly earnings YoY have a previous Result of 4.6% and an estimation of 4.3% above 4.4% or below 4.2%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised by a result of 4.2% and below or 4.4% and above. The US Unemployment rate has a previous result of 3.5% and an estimation forecast of 3.6%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised with a result of 3.4% and below and 3.7% or above. Consider the above as possible conflicting factors or boosting factors to the NFP result, also don't forget that the Unemployment rate lower is US$ hawkish, and the Unemployment rate higher is US$ dovish.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Investing_Bridge
EUR/USD Trims Fed-inspired Gains After ECB DecisionThe EUR/USD pair erased a significant part of Wednesday’s Fed-induced rally as European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivered a cautious press conference, which weighed on the euro. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at the 1.0915 area, posting a 0.65% daily loss, after printing its highest level in nine months at 1.1085. At the same time, the U.S. dollar managed to stage a noticeable rebound as its DXY index gains 0.5%, around 101.70. The ECB decided to raise its main interest rates by 50 bps, being the highest level since November 2008 for the deposit facility rate, which now stands at 2.5%. The monetary policy statement confirmed another 50 bp hike in March, but during the press conference, Lagarde only committed to a “strong intent” and limited the hawkish tone. A dovish tilt was also perceived as the inflation risk was described as more balanced, with the consumer inflation coming down from cycle highs while economic activity is doing better than expected. On the other hand, the dollar recovered across the board on Thursday, trimming post-Fed losses. At the same time, markets continued to cheer Jerome Powell’s confirmation that the disinflationary process has begun as U.S. bond yields continued to fall, although they ended the day away from lows, while the Wall Street indexes extended gains except for the Dow Jones that closed nearly flat. On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls report will be release, with expectations pointing to a 185,000 job increase in January. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains the short-term bullish bias, with the price hovering near multi-month highs and above its main moving averages, while indicators remain in positive territory despite losing some bullish momentum. On the upside, the following resistance levels are seen at 1.1035 and the 1.1085 high, followed by the 1.1100 psychological area. On the flip side, support levels could be found at 1.0880, and the 20-day simple moving average at 1.0832.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
2
Nonfarm Payrolls Effect on Gold PriceOANDA:XAUUSD Key Economics Highlight in the first week of 2023 - Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for December 2022 were reported on 6th January 2023. - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 which is higher than what the market was expecting by 200,000. - The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, which was lower than the consensus of 3.7%. On the night of January 6, 2023, this report had a significant positive impact on various financial assets especially Gold. Gold prices rose from 1,836 USD to 1,850 USD within 10 minutes of the reporting and it made a higher high on the weekly candle at 1,869.9 USD before closing the week at 1,866.1 USD Technically, Gold price almost reach its significant supply zone at around 1876.5 USD. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see the gold price drops to the first support level or trade in the range of 1825 - 1876 for a while. Fundamentally, the current US workforce participation rate still has not reached the Pre-Covid19 level and the contribution of workforce participation in US consists more aging population which could be problematic for future economy growth as there could be more labor demand but less supply since more people are going into being retired. Therefore, it seems like the market has overreacted to this report in short term. But, speculators and investors must still continue to manage their risks based on the inflation rates and potential recession of US economy Let us know what you guys think!~
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ChartTrail
EUR/USD Bounces Off Monthly Lows After U.S. NFP, Services DataThe EUR/USD pair rallied on Friday, recovering most of the previous day’s losses after U.S. employment and services data cooled down jitters around Fed’s rate increases path. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0640 area, 1.15 % above its opening price. The shared currency managed to erase daily losses, which saw the pair bottoming at a one-month low of 1.0481, but remains poised to post the first weekly decline after six consecutive gains. On the data front, the Eurozone harmonized consumer price index rose by 9.2% in the year to December, below the 9.7% increase expected. Across the pond, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in December, beating the market consensus of 200,000 but decelerating from its previous reading of 256,000 (revised from 263,000). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% versus the 3.7% expected, despite a slight increase in the participation rate. Meanwhile, wage inflation, gauged by the Average Hourly Earnings, fell to 4.6% YoY from its previous reading of 4.8%. Economic Activity data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the service sector in the U.S. is slowing down. The Services PMI decreased to 49.6 in December from its previous reading of 56.5, well below expectations of 55.1. The Services Employment and New Orders Indexes also showed poor results in the same period, printing at 49.8 and 45.2, respectively, both below consensus. Expectations that the Fed could increase rates by 50 bps next meeting cooled down on Friday, weighing on U.S. Treasury bond yields and on the dollar. According to the WIRP tool, the odds of a 50 bps increase dropped to 24.3% from Thursday’s 37.4%. Next week, the U.S. consumer price index will be on investors’ radars, looking for confirmation price pressures have continued to ease. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD holds a short-term positive bias according to indicators on the daily chart, while the quick bounce from recent lows showed the bulls are not ready to give up. Regarding technical levels, the following resistance points are seen at the 1.0700 mark, followed by the December highs at 1.0736. On the other hand, support levels line up at the 20-day simple moving average at 1.0610, followed by the broken descending trendline that reinforces the 1.0500 psychological level and then the one-month lows at around 1.0480.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
USD/CAD eyes Canada, US job reportsThe Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3620, up 0.36%. The first week of the new year has been busy. The Canadian dollar sparkled on Wednesday and climbed 1.4%, but has since pared most of those gains. Canada and the US will wrap up the week with the December employment reports, which could mean some volatility in the North American session. Canada's job creation in recent months has not impressed, with the exception of a massive gain of 108,300 in October. This was followed by a marginal gain of 10,100 in November, and December is expected to be even smaller, with an estimate of 8,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to inch higher to 5.2%, up from 5.1%. Canada also releases Ivey PMI, which has been stagnant over the past two months, just above the 50.0 threshold which separates contraction from expansion. The PMI is projected to drop to 51.0 for December, down from 51.4 in November. In the US, the focus will be on nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Unemployment claims and other employment indicators show that the labour market remains resilient and there is a strong demand for workers despite a slowing economy. The ADP employment report, although not considered a reliable precursor to NFP, jumped to 235,000 in December, crushing the previous reading of 127,000 and the estimate of 150,000. The markets expect NFP to move in the opposite direction, with an estimate of 200,000, down from 263,000 in November. A soft NFP release would be an indication that the labour market may finally be weakening. For the Fed, this would be good news, as it believes that the labor market must soften in order for inflation to fall. For the markets, always hoping for a dovish pivot, a weak NFP would likely raise speculation that the Fed may be close to winding up its current tightening cycle, and this could translate into the US dollar losing ground. USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3628. Above, there is resistance at 1.3709 There is support at 1.3546 and 1.3476
by OANDA
DOW - NFP + Monthly low = ? FX:USDOLLAR Totally uneducated assumption but with the pandemic and recession I'd assume NFP will come back negative but who knows maybe that would encourage/force people to work to pay for increased living expenses due to inflation and rate hikes. Also the fact that people working multiple jobs for sperate companies count as a point for each job they work. 10x people working 3x jobs count for 30x people in the workforce. So not really much of an indicator of productivity but you never know... Either way, DOW (USD) is at a monthly low (support) and has bottomed out indicating new support. Price has broken the first resistance level and retested a support on Zone #1 (red) If NFP is positive, it should break the current resistance Zone #2 (yellow) and run up to Zone #3 (orange) + Possibly even higher, could be big volume due to the significance of this zone on the weekly. If it's negative i'd say we'll be retesting that weekly low again (Zone #0 Green) (*NOTE: This move will also indicate/influence the direction of the EUR/USD pair, as it is at a historical low)
FX:USDOLLARLong
by Quantified
EURUSD - Boom or BustNFP around the corner, will it strengthen USD or weaken sentiment? EURUSD is at monthly channel low, good upside potential (macro) DOW is also at monthly low, be interesting to see what run bullish as it will determine the direction of the EURUSD pair. DOW + Bullish = EURUSD Bearish Negative NFP reports could push DOW into new lows and set the EUR off on it's bull run. Also quite difficult to give an accurate estimate because rates are still so high and with so much quantitive easing post covid from both the USD and EUR it's hard to tell what will happen. Good time for reactive trading, rather than predictive.
by Quantified
6
SP500 waiting for the NFP 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart is trading between 2 structures and today's release of the NFP data can show us some break of those levels. The main outlook remains bearish at the moment and it can be risky to trade this kind of event on the last trading day of the week. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a break of the support area and if that will happen i will be looking for a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
2
GOLD TRADE IDEA 06 JANUARYGOLD FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYIS 06 JANUARY. Earlier this week we had better Jolt's job opening data and then Better ADP data & Better PMI data , reduced jobless claims Hawkish FED , DXY breaking above 105 making, Things are looking good for dollar hence bearish for gold , stocks , & XXXUSD pairs. Main today will remain on Non Form payroll & Unemployment rate and then ISM service PMI. So far with already released data , like ADP data , jobless claims & Jolts Job opening, it looks like the labor market is still solid. based on data released we are expecting better unemployment rate / and NFP numbers. So we are adopting to bearish bias in gold , indices & in XXXUSD pairs as DXY already came up on +VE side trading above 105.00 & Gold failed break above 1865 , Trade setup in gold today. Pullback sells @ 1841 , & 1844. Safer sells below 1828 & 1820 Further movement is depending upon the NFP & UnemplOyment rate and we will adopt to our main bias accordnigly Any break above 1848 & 1852 we will be adopting gold buys which should be fueled by any fundamental catalyst like BAD NFP & unemployment data. Happy NFP Day everyone ;-) Written By - Richard Market Researcher FX overseas
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
$EUR - Trade idea!$EUR - Trade idea! It's been a quiet start, we had a little bullish momentum in dollar brought the eur decline a little but we are now back within the range. Even with FOMC nothing really changed imo very little market movement, we did get a pull back on metals a little. For now we on EUR 1HR. Lows: 1.05870 Highs: 1.06355 A break to either direction. If you were to look at the daily we are in a range of lows: 1.05200 areas and highs: 1.07200 areas needs break these key levels for further clarification. Lets not forget we got NFP tomorrow we could be in these ranges until then, add alerts or orders whatever is in your trade plan. Trade what you see, not what you think! Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
Weekly Outlook - NFP!! (Ending 010623)First, it is NFP week. The Market is more unpredictable because manual intervention will take place. Please be aware of this when trading. Second, I'm looking for Consolidation, Manipulation, then Distribution. Initially, the market has consolidated. Next, it will drive higher, liquidating all the Bears' Shorts built in (the three levels I noted) and making the Bulls trigger happy to provoke Long positions. After their positions are built in, the market will reverse and liquidate their Stop Loses below 3780. Stay Tuned...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FreddyFutures
1