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Nfp

NFP's effect on $GOLD : 12.02.22I specified the possible scenario on the chart! Check and make your own personal decision based on that! Last analysis before NFP : As I mentioned yesterday, I expected the price to move towards $1808 and we saw that the price managed to grow up to $1805, now we are in an important moment and in a few minutes the latest NFP statistics of 2022 will be announced and it can affect the whole market with Bring high volatility, manage your positions in the best possible way! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 12.02.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
36
GOLD NFP + Unemployment Rate1. If the Non-Farm Payrolls data remains above 200K and the unemployment rate remains below 3.7%, GOLD SELLS below | 1795 -1789 | 2. If Non-Farm Payrolls data remains UNDER 200K and Unemployment Rate ABOVE 3.7% BUY GOLD BUY | 1803 | + confirmations DXY BULL (2) / BEAR (1) ╔═╦╗╔╦╗╔═╦═╦╦╦╦╗╔═╗ ║╚╣║║║╚╣╚╣╔╣╔╣║╚╣═╣ ╠╗║╚╝║║╠╗║╚╣║║║║║═╣ ╚═╩══╩═╩═╩═╩╝╚╩═╩═╝
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tarsi_Fx
Euro pauses after sharp gains, NFP loomsEUR/USD is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.0524. The week wraps up with one of most important releases on the calendar, US nonfarm payrolls. The robust labour market is showing signs of cooling down, as rising interest rates have slowed economic activity. Nonfarm payrolls have been falling and the trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 200,000 for November, down from 261,000 a month earlier. With the Fed holding its policy meeting on December 14th, the NFP report will be closely watched by policy makers, who have relied on a strong job market to press ahead with an aggressive rate cycle. The US dollar has been in retreat since Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday. The speech was balanced, with Powell reiterating that inflation remained too high and rates would continue to rise higher. Still, the markets focussed on the fact that Powell strongly hinted the Fed would ease rates at the December meeting with a 50-bp hike, and the optimism sent equities higher and the dollar lower. The euro has made the most of the dollar's weakness, and EUR/USD posted its best month since 2012, with gains in November of 5.3%. Still, the euro has been on a prolonged decline and started 2022 close to 1.14. The outlook for the euro is weak, as the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to decline in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. The driver of the expected decline is the huge jump in energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The eurozone has been hit hard by double-digit inflation, and the ECB will have to continue raising rates, despite weak economic conditions, until it is convinced that inflation has peaked. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0583, followed by a monthly line at 1.0683 There is support at 1.0490 and 1.03537
by OANDA
Non Farm Friday, what will happen to the DXY?Key news events due today: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate The DXY continued to slide overnight, as the price broke below the 105-round number support level to approach the 104.60 price level. This move was driven lower as the core PCE price index was released showing a smaller-than-expected change in inflation growth at 0.2% (Forecast: 0.3%), supporting the recent sentiment from the Federal Reserve that a slowdown in interest rate hikes could happen in December. Look for the DXY to continue trading lower toward the 103.80 price level. However a strong employment data release today could provide some brief relief to the DXY heading into the weekend.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
⚠️ The last TA of #Gold on November ⚠️Today, the market is not following a particular trend and is waiting for the announcement of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings statistics, and after that the speech of Mr. Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman)! Anyway, I have specified the important levels of supply and demand on the chart. Personally, I will wait for Point of Interest (POI) and then enter into a new position , and considering that it is the last day of the month, I will minimize my personal risk! 🔔 Important Day 🔔(The Last Day of The Month) ➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖ 🔴 USD : ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 💬 Usual Effect : 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency . 🟨 Why Should We Care ? Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; ➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖ 🔴 USD : JOLTS Job Openings 💬 Usual Effect : 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency . ➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖ 🔴 USD : Fed Chair Powell Speaks 📣 Speaker : Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 💬 Usual Effect : More hawkish than expected is good for currency. 🟨 Why Should We Care ? As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy ! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.30.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
23
DXY DECEMBER OUTLOOK 2 scenarios that can play out this week, preparing for the month of December to end off the year. Scenario 1 - Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a very hawkish stance during the FOMC meeting on Thursday 2am sgt. Continue rate hikes into early 2023, no slowing down of rate hike to lower inflation rates. I need to see strong economic data during NFP this Friday which will give strength to the dollar and weakness to gold. Dollar to break up out of range heading towards at 110 possibly 111 regions HRHR GOLD SELLS - 1753 region MRMR GOLD SELLS - 1747 region SAFE GOLD SELLS BELOW 1739 REGION Scenario 2 - Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a dovish stance during FOMC meeting, giving hints of a slowdown in rate hikes, probably a 50 bps in the next rate hike or a 25 bps as we have seen improvement in inflation data in the last CPI. NFP data is bad this Friday as per forecasted till date. Dollar to continue its bearish momentum heading towards 105 possibly 103 regions HRHR GOLD BUYS - 1764 MRMR GOLD BUYS - 1785 SAFEST GOLD BUYS ABOVE 1800 REGION
TVC:DXY
by CJ_GOLDPIPS
USDJPYHello traders. I see a poin of interest here. Fundamentally speaking, Bank of Japan has initiated the intervention in order to mitigate the Yen 's depreciation. Technically speaking we are inside weekly supply zone which is not checked as support up to today. I see an M pattern forming in daily time frame. I see two potential entries. One immediate entry and another one if it goes up to test the highs. 142 price are is nice for take profits. Note: M patterns are not always symmetrical as a nice double top. it can include second high lower that the previous one because they do not want to release the late buyers who bought at the top. They want to grab their money. So, this is a reason I believe it may start selling from now. Anyhow, Friaday is NFP and it may cause volatility with USD spikes testing Key levels so I want to be safe by reducing the lot seriously and increasing the SL much higher. If the M is going to form a High> previous top, I will still consider it as a nice entry for short due to stop hunt routine for sellers. (M pattern not symmetrical again) Good luck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path
1
New Zealand dollar flies after US NFPThe New Zealand dollar is steady today, after ending the week with huge gains. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5934 in the North American session. The US dollar was broadly lower on Friday, after the nonfarm payroll report sent mixed signals about the strength of the labor market. The October reading of 261,000 was stronger than the consensus of 200,000, but it marked the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, up from 3.5%, while wage growth rose to 5.5% YoY, up from 5.2%. The latter release is likely to keep the Fed concerned about inflationary pressures. The mixed numbers left investors in a dovish mood and the US dollar paid the price. NZD/USD climbed a remarkable 2.7%, as investors gave a strong thumbs-up to risk currencies like the New Zealand dollar. The job data has led to the markets raising the likelihood of a 50 basis points hike in December - the CME's Fed Watch has pegged a 50 bp increase at 56% and a 75 bp move at 34%. Still, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise rates to 5% or even higher next year, I would not be surprised to see the US dollar quickly recover from Friday's tumble. Investors were looking for anything to send the equity markets higher, and the mixed NFP report was their excuse, even though US job creation was stronger than expected. New Zealand will release Inflation Expectations on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be watching carefully, as it continues its titanic battle with inflation. Last week's employment numbers indicated that the labour market remains tight - unemployment is very low and wage growth is moving higher. This makes the RBNZ's battle with inflation will continue and we can expect another oversized rate hike at the November 23rd meeting - perhaps as high as 75 bp. The risk of a wage-price spiral is a key concern for policy makers, and if the upcoming Inflation Expectations accelerates, it would be a worrisome signal that inflation is still on the upswing. There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999 There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689
by OANDA
DXY reverses from NFP, where next?The DXY reversed earlier than expected. The previous analysis was that the DXY could climb to 114, with the 113 price level providing some resistance with a probable retest of 112.55 before trading higher again. However, we saw the DXY weaken MASSIVELY on the release of the US employment data on Friday, with some other contributing factors: - NFP was higher than expected (261k vs 197k) BUT the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7% AND average hourly earnings increased. - average hourly earnings increase could signal continual wage inflation growth, but the unemployment rate increase might be the weakness in data that the FOMC warned about. - at the end of such a high volatility week, it would be natural that market participants take profit, with prices retracing. So, where to from here? The good news, the only significant economic data to be released this week for the USD is the CPI data on Thursday, and the expectation is for y/y inflation to slow down slightly, from 8.2% to 8.0%. In the lead-up to the CPI data release: - If the DXY breaks below 110.70, the DXY could weaken further towards 109.50, before a possible rebound back towards 111.00 - If the DXY holds above 110.70, the DXY could rebound towards 111.70 and trade higher on the release of the CPI data.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
Post FOMC and NFP | GOLD Potential Forecast | 5th November 2022Hi guys! Chern Yu here~ My trading methodology revolves around smart money concepts and liquidity. This week's data releases from FOMC and NFP gave us plenty of clues as to where price will be headed to. Fundamental COntext - FOMC meeting: FED raised interest rates by 75bps. - Jerome Powell mentioned to increase the terminal rate and seemingly raising rates for a longer period despite saying rate hikes will slow down. - NFP: prints 261k vs 197k (better than forecast but decreased from last month) - Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs 3.5% (Rate hikes taking effect, market pricing in the bearish economic outlook for USD) ALL EYES IS ON CPI PRINT ON 10th NOVEMBER Forecast - I believe that next week will be CRUCIAL in telling the direction of price action in GOLD. - If CPI prints lower and shows it has improved, I anticipate a more risk on environment and USD will depreciate against GOLD or other currencies. - If CPI prints higher and shows it needs time to get back lower, I believe market will still remain sidelined and USD will still continue to come out the winner. (GOLD appreciates in this case) I will be giving an update next week so please stay tuned! It will be an interesting week and there are swing set ups and opportunities waiting on GOLD or EURUSD. Stay relentless.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jon_Jones_Junior