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USDJPYHello traders. I see a poin of interest here. Fundamentally speaking, Bank of Japan has initiated the intervention in order to mitigate the Yen 's depreciation. Technically speaking we are inside weekly supply zone which is not checked as support up to today. I see an M pattern forming in daily time frame. I see two potential entries. One immediate entry and another one if it goes up to test the highs. 142 price are is nice for take profits. Note: M patterns are not always symmetrical as a nice double top. it can include second high lower that the previous one because they do not want to release the late buyers who bought at the top. They want to grab their money. So, this is a reason I believe it may start selling from now. Anyhow, Friaday is NFP and it may cause volatility with USD spikes testing Key levels so I want to be safe by reducing the lot seriously and increasing the SL much higher. If the M is going to form a High> previous top, I will still consider it as a nice entry for short due to stop hunt routine for sellers. (M pattern not symmetrical again) Good luck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path
1
New Zealand dollar flies after US NFPThe New Zealand dollar is steady today, after ending the week with huge gains. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5934 in the North American session. The US dollar was broadly lower on Friday, after the nonfarm payroll report sent mixed signals about the strength of the labor market. The October reading of 261,000 was stronger than the consensus of 200,000, but it marked the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, up from 3.5%, while wage growth rose to 5.5% YoY, up from 5.2%. The latter release is likely to keep the Fed concerned about inflationary pressures. The mixed numbers left investors in a dovish mood and the US dollar paid the price. NZD/USD climbed a remarkable 2.7%, as investors gave a strong thumbs-up to risk currencies like the New Zealand dollar. The job data has led to the markets raising the likelihood of a 50 basis points hike in December - the CME's Fed Watch has pegged a 50 bp increase at 56% and a 75 bp move at 34%. Still, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise rates to 5% or even higher next year, I would not be surprised to see the US dollar quickly recover from Friday's tumble. Investors were looking for anything to send the equity markets higher, and the mixed NFP report was their excuse, even though US job creation was stronger than expected. New Zealand will release Inflation Expectations on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be watching carefully, as it continues its titanic battle with inflation. Last week's employment numbers indicated that the labour market remains tight - unemployment is very low and wage growth is moving higher. This makes the RBNZ's battle with inflation will continue and we can expect another oversized rate hike at the November 23rd meeting - perhaps as high as 75 bp. The risk of a wage-price spiral is a key concern for policy makers, and if the upcoming Inflation Expectations accelerates, it would be a worrisome signal that inflation is still on the upswing. There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999 There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689
by OANDA
DXY reverses from NFP, where next?The DXY reversed earlier than expected. The previous analysis was that the DXY could climb to 114, with the 113 price level providing some resistance with a probable retest of 112.55 before trading higher again. However, we saw the DXY weaken MASSIVELY on the release of the US employment data on Friday, with some other contributing factors: - NFP was higher than expected (261k vs 197k) BUT the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7% AND average hourly earnings increased. - average hourly earnings increase could signal continual wage inflation growth, but the unemployment rate increase might be the weakness in data that the FOMC warned about. - at the end of such a high volatility week, it would be natural that market participants take profit, with prices retracing. So, where to from here? The good news, the only significant economic data to be released this week for the USD is the CPI data on Thursday, and the expectation is for y/y inflation to slow down slightly, from 8.2% to 8.0%. In the lead-up to the CPI data release: - If the DXY breaks below 110.70, the DXY could weaken further towards 109.50, before a possible rebound back towards 111.00 - If the DXY holds above 110.70, the DXY could rebound towards 111.70 and trade higher on the release of the CPI data.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
Post FOMC and NFP | GOLD Potential Forecast | 5th November 2022Hi guys! Chern Yu here~ My trading methodology revolves around smart money concepts and liquidity. This week's data releases from FOMC and NFP gave us plenty of clues as to where price will be headed to. Fundamental COntext - FOMC meeting: FED raised interest rates by 75bps. - Jerome Powell mentioned to increase the terminal rate and seemingly raising rates for a longer period despite saying rate hikes will slow down. - NFP: prints 261k vs 197k (better than forecast but decreased from last month) - Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs 3.5% (Rate hikes taking effect, market pricing in the bearish economic outlook for USD) ALL EYES IS ON CPI PRINT ON 10th NOVEMBER Forecast - I believe that next week will be CRUCIAL in telling the direction of price action in GOLD. - If CPI prints lower and shows it has improved, I anticipate a more risk on environment and USD will depreciate against GOLD or other currencies. - If CPI prints higher and shows it needs time to get back lower, I believe market will still remain sidelined and USD will still continue to come out the winner. (GOLD appreciates in this case) I will be giving an update next week so please stay tuned! It will be an interesting week and there are swing set ups and opportunities waiting on GOLD or EURUSD. Stay relentless.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jon_Jones_Junior
EUR/USD Rallies Above 0.9900 After NFP DataThe EUR/USD advanced on Friday despite mixed Eurozone PMIs data and extended gains after the release of October’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. The EUR/USD pair reached a two-day high of 0.9940 as the greenback slumped across the board despite better-than-expected U.S. jobs data. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9923, posting a 1.8% daily gain, although still headed to a 0.4% weekly decline. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed 261,000 new jobs were created in October, above the consensus of 200,000, while the September reading was upwardly revised to 315,000. The wage inflation rate, measured by the average hourly earnings, came at 0.4% in October and eased to 4.7% in the annual reading. Finally, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% the previous month and above the consensus of 3.6%, overshadowing to some degree strong job creation. Although the strong payrolls keep supporting the case for the continuation of the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, the greenback came under pressure, while Treasury yields moved higher. Earlier on the day, data showed the Eurozone activity continued to contract in October at the sharpest rate in almost two years. The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to a 23-month low of 47.3 but came slightly above the consensus of 47.1. In addition, the German services PMI showed another contraction amid soaring inflation, higher interest rates, and uncertainty in the area. The German S&P Global services PMI came in at 46.5, above the expectations of 44.9 and slightly improving from the last reading of 44.9. According to the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair holds a bearish outlook and will close this week lower after two consecutive gains. On the daily chart, however, the perspective has turned slightly positive following Friday’s bounce, with the price moving above both the 20-day SMA and the northbound of the descending channel drawn from February highs. A daily close above 0.9900 could favor a re-test of parity and a move towards October’s high of 1.0080. On the other hand, short-term support levels are seen at the 20-day SMA at the 0.9839 zone and the 0.9800 area, ahead of weekly lows at the 0.9730 zone.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold update NFP RecapOn the chart below you can see the forecast for today: (if you click on it, you will see the whole analysis) NFP was better than expected, which means that people are not worried about the wages and vacancies. They will spend more money - in result the inflation will grow. This is against the FED and their fight with inflation. Two days ago J.P. said that they have no ceiling for the IR, only one thing is important - to bring back the inflation. He was very hawkish more than usual and gold drop significant and formed strong manipulation to the down side. So if we follow the logic: on this NFP data gold should drop, because of the future reaction from the FED - more aggressive hike. As you can see I had very strong confirmations - technically and fundamentally to sell today. It will be very interesting weekly analysis this weekend, because a lot changed.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SerpentForexClub
Previous Non Farm Payrolls in price action on USDJPY and USDCADNon-farm payroll is critical news that hits the forex markets regularly. Let's see how it affected USDCAD and USDJPY last time in order to be better prepared for the announcement in advance. NFP is usually released on the first Friday after the month ends. The last such time was on 7th October. The surprise is 263K against the 248K forecasted. USDCAD first raided High of the previous day. Then, it dropped below the last two sessions' Lows over the rest of the New York session and turned bullish after. This correlated perfectly with the USOIL chart as seen in the attached chart below. USDJPY initially dropped below the last two sessions' Low but resumed its bullishness after. On 2nd September, the surprise factor is 315K against the 295K forecasted. USDCAD had a series of very calm sessions. After the release, the NY broke below their Lows possibly to raid some stop orders, and turned positive later. There is no anti-correlation to Oil markets this time. USDJPY initially broke higher, but also ended up bearish later. The first candle was indecisive. On 5th August, there was a major surprise as the answer was 528K against the 250 forecasted. Both USDCAD and USDJPY saw a rapid increase in price after very good news. However, both retraced the rally over the next three key sessions to different extents. A similar pattern can be traced in Oil markets. ▬▬▬▬▬▬ Most importantly, all releases since May (included) had a positive surprise. This is generally good for the currency, however, how it plays out with the central bank's decision-making needs to also be respected. If I were to guess, USDCAD's Wednesday Low will be taken out. But if the reaction is bullish, we may get to intervention-risk levels on USDJPY which may be just as lucrative an opportunity as mentioned in the attached study. Good luck!
by OrcChieftain
Euro stems nasty slide, NFP loomsEUR/USD has rebounded and is in positive territory. In the European session, the euro is trading at 0.9794, up 0.45%. The upswing has ended a 3-day slide, in which the euro fell as much as 270 points. The manufacturing sector in the eurozone continues to struggle. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs are mired in contraction territory and German Factory Orders for September, published today, declined by a sharp 4.0%. A weak global economy has dampened manufacturing activity, and the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Western Europe will likely continue to take a toll on the eurozone economy. The grim economic outlook is a major headache for ECB policymakers, who must maneuver delicately between soaring inflation and a weak eurozone economy. The ECB joined the rate-hiking dance late and finds itself well behind the inflation curve, as headline inflation in the eurozone jumped to a staggering 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% in September. The ECB has little choice but to deliver an oversize rate hike in order to tackle double-digit inflation, and ECB President Lagarde has said that she would use "all the tools" available to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. All eyes are on today's US nonfarm payroll report. The labour market has been resilient in the face of steep rate hikes, although we are seeing a jump in job cuts. The consensus for the October NFP stands at 200,000, lower than the September reading of 263,000. The release will be carefully watched by the Fed, as the strength of the labor market is an important factor in the December rate decision. The markets have priced in a 50/50 toss-up between a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%, which could translate into volatility for the US dollar in today's North American session. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.9818. Next, there is resistance at 0.9956 0.9669 and 0.9531 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Falls To Two-Week Lows After Fed, Nonfarm Payrolls EyedThe EUR/USD fell for the fourth day in a row on Thursday and hit its lowest level in two weeks as the greenback continued to strengthen in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve decision and ahead of the October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 0.9750 area, 0.67% below its opening price, and over 300 pips below last week's peak. The pair hit a low of 0.9730 earlier in the session, last seen on October 21. The EUR/USD has been moving steadily south, making lower lows and lower highs after being rejected by levels above parity heading into the Federal Reserve verdict. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lifted the fed funds range by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4% as expected. In the subsequent press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell said that recent data suggested that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than anticipated and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to cool inflation down. However, he acknowledged that the pace of tightening would need to slow eventually. After a short-lived pullback, U.S. yields and the dollar bounced significantly as markets understood Powell's message as the central bank will not be slowing down in December. In the meantime, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that a "mild recession" is possible but that it wouldn't be sufficient in itself to stem inflation. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair holds a short-term negative bias, with the price losing the support of the 20-day SMA and indicators heading down in negative territory on the daily chart. On the downside, the next support level could be faced at the 0.9700 area, followed by October’s monthly low of 0.9630. On the upside, short-term resistance is given by the 20-day SMA at the 0.9830 zone, followed by the 0.9900 area, where the upper side of the nine-month-long descending channel stands after a failed break as the EUR/USD couldn’t hold it as support.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURUSD , mid week analysis Hi traders, I am very much excited to share my analysis of the EURUSD pair on the first week of November, I made this analysis after the FOMC meeting on 03 rd November 2022, EURO against the Dollar pair touches the 5 Weeks high on 27 th October at the closest price level of 1.1000, The bearish outlook continues right from the month’s end and it continues in the first week of November the first week is studded with heavy news releases around the globe, We did not see any change in the downward momentum even after FOMC releases, The dollar gains strength again with a 75 bps rate increase during the FOMC minutes, and Weekend also waiting for ISM Non-manufacturing PMI and NFP news release on Friday evening. Expected to see a further low and the price could travel down toward the 0.97000 zone, Technical analysis suggests that the coming days could be the good one for EURUSD, If the bulls take control on 0.97000, a Triple bottom pattern may form in EURUSD, which could push the price upwards, This analysis is only tentative not a confirmed one The last 45 days' movement clearly shows this pair respecting an upward channel and If we have a pattern confirmation too, then Bull may rage in this pair. Thank you traders for watching this The analysis only for Education purposes
by Akfx369
XAUUSD : Another Sell ??Update : +45 Pips so far The price has again reached the important supply range from $1657 to $1667! We have to see how the price will react to this level when the New York session starts, today is a very important day, so be careful with your trades , because today we will see an increase in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.02.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
14
The week ahead - DXY (31 October 2022)Towards the end of last week, the DXY showed some recovery as it bounced from the 109.50 price area to retest the 111.00 price level. However, the DXY retraced to 110.66 to end the trading week. This will be a big week for the DXY, with the release of the decision of the FOMC regarding the Funds Rate, Statement, and the accompanying press conference due on Thursday. Rather than the interest rate decision, focus more on the forward guidance regarding the path of future rate decisions and the FOMC's view of economic performance. If the DXY fails to trade above the 111 price level early in the week, the DXY is likely to continue to slide and retest the support area of 110 and 109.30. Recent weakness in the US economic data had provided some doubt as to whether the FOMC will persist with its current aggressive path of rate hikes, hence the slide in the DXY. The FOMC is forecasted to increase by 75bps, taking interest rates to 4.00% at the upcoming meeting. This decision is likely to have been priced in already. At the last meeting, the DXY traded higher from the 111 price level, which started the climb toward the high of 114.77. This time, look for the DXY to bounce from the support area possibly toward the 112 resistance level Following the rates decision, on Friday, we'll have the release of key employment data for the US, the Non-Farm (NFP) employment change. The forecast is for a 200k change, from the previous 263k, with the unemployment rate expected to increase slightly to 3.6%. Depending on the reaction from the FOMC news, the NFP news event is likely to have little impact unless there is a significant surprise in the data release. (Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week)
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
8300 Minimum Pips reward for SWING TradersUS Dollar index has been in an overall BULLISH since double bottom chart formation formed at price level 90.00 and it will likely continue in same direction over the next couple of months painting a picture of a repeat of 01 Feb 1985 historical price action, leading the price to 164.50 target Consequently, that will play out if price will be able to Break the minor resistance yellow line at 120.50 giving a take away of about 8300 Pips over the next few months. Swing traders will pose for hopping on the pull backs as the trend continues higher
TVC:DXYLong
by Ejike_Odeh
USDJPYUJ Stacked in a Supply zone fore days. The zone holds in a solid way and everything will be clarified tomorrow during NFP. With a trendline break, I see a sell opportunity at the retest of Trendline and Supply zone. It is very possible to go for a stophunt at approximate levels of 145.9-146.2. So, in order to be safe I will lower my lots and at the same time I will increase the stop loss, with a profit targe at the demand zone and the previous trend line, In case this scenario takes place, it is good to take partials after the 142.5. Do not trade blindly and always follow Risk management. Good luck to everyone and I am waiting your feedback.
Short
by The_Forex_Path