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Nfp

Gold update NFP RecapOn the chart below you can see the forecast for today: (if you click on it, you will see the whole analysis) NFP was better than expected, which means that people are not worried about the wages and vacancies. They will spend more money - in result the inflation will grow. This is against the FED and their fight with inflation. Two days ago J.P. said that they have no ceiling for the IR, only one thing is important - to bring back the inflation. He was very hawkish more than usual and gold drop significant and formed strong manipulation to the down side. So if we follow the logic: on this NFP data gold should drop, because of the future reaction from the FED - more aggressive hike. As you can see I had very strong confirmations - technically and fundamentally to sell today. It will be very interesting weekly analysis this weekend, because a lot changed.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SerpentForexClub
Previous Non Farm Payrolls in price action on USDJPY and USDCADNon-farm payroll is critical news that hits the forex markets regularly. Let's see how it affected USDCAD and USDJPY last time in order to be better prepared for the announcement in advance. NFP is usually released on the first Friday after the month ends. The last such time was on 7th October. The surprise is 263K against the 248K forecasted. USDCAD first raided High of the previous day. Then, it dropped below the last two sessions' Lows over the rest of the New York session and turned bullish after. This correlated perfectly with the USOIL chart as seen in the attached chart below. USDJPY initially dropped below the last two sessions' Low but resumed its bullishness after. On 2nd September, the surprise factor is 315K against the 295K forecasted. USDCAD had a series of very calm sessions. After the release, the NY broke below their Lows possibly to raid some stop orders, and turned positive later. There is no anti-correlation to Oil markets this time. USDJPY initially broke higher, but also ended up bearish later. The first candle was indecisive. On 5th August, there was a major surprise as the answer was 528K against the 250 forecasted. Both USDCAD and USDJPY saw a rapid increase in price after very good news. However, both retraced the rally over the next three key sessions to different extents. A similar pattern can be traced in Oil markets. ▬▬▬▬▬▬ Most importantly, all releases since May (included) had a positive surprise. This is generally good for the currency, however, how it plays out with the central bank's decision-making needs to also be respected. If I were to guess, USDCAD's Wednesday Low will be taken out. But if the reaction is bullish, we may get to intervention-risk levels on USDJPY which may be just as lucrative an opportunity as mentioned in the attached study. Good luck!
by OrcChieftain
Euro stems nasty slide, NFP loomsEUR/USD has rebounded and is in positive territory. In the European session, the euro is trading at 0.9794, up 0.45%. The upswing has ended a 3-day slide, in which the euro fell as much as 270 points. The manufacturing sector in the eurozone continues to struggle. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs are mired in contraction territory and German Factory Orders for September, published today, declined by a sharp 4.0%. A weak global economy has dampened manufacturing activity, and the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Western Europe will likely continue to take a toll on the eurozone economy. The grim economic outlook is a major headache for ECB policymakers, who must maneuver delicately between soaring inflation and a weak eurozone economy. The ECB joined the rate-hiking dance late and finds itself well behind the inflation curve, as headline inflation in the eurozone jumped to a staggering 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% in September. The ECB has little choice but to deliver an oversize rate hike in order to tackle double-digit inflation, and ECB President Lagarde has said that she would use "all the tools" available to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. All eyes are on today's US nonfarm payroll report. The labour market has been resilient in the face of steep rate hikes, although we are seeing a jump in job cuts. The consensus for the October NFP stands at 200,000, lower than the September reading of 263,000. The release will be carefully watched by the Fed, as the strength of the labor market is an important factor in the December rate decision. The markets have priced in a 50/50 toss-up between a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%, which could translate into volatility for the US dollar in today's North American session. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.9818. Next, there is resistance at 0.9956 0.9669 and 0.9531 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Falls To Two-Week Lows After Fed, Nonfarm Payrolls EyedThe EUR/USD fell for the fourth day in a row on Thursday and hit its lowest level in two weeks as the greenback continued to strengthen in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve decision and ahead of the October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 0.9750 area, 0.67% below its opening price, and over 300 pips below last week's peak. The pair hit a low of 0.9730 earlier in the session, last seen on October 21. The EUR/USD has been moving steadily south, making lower lows and lower highs after being rejected by levels above parity heading into the Federal Reserve verdict. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lifted the fed funds range by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4% as expected. In the subsequent press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell said that recent data suggested that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than anticipated and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to cool inflation down. However, he acknowledged that the pace of tightening would need to slow eventually. After a short-lived pullback, U.S. yields and the dollar bounced significantly as markets understood Powell's message as the central bank will not be slowing down in December. In the meantime, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that a "mild recession" is possible but that it wouldn't be sufficient in itself to stem inflation. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair holds a short-term negative bias, with the price losing the support of the 20-day SMA and indicators heading down in negative territory on the daily chart. On the downside, the next support level could be faced at the 0.9700 area, followed by October’s monthly low of 0.9630. On the upside, short-term resistance is given by the 20-day SMA at the 0.9830 zone, followed by the 0.9900 area, where the upper side of the nine-month-long descending channel stands after a failed break as the EUR/USD couldn’t hold it as support.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURUSD , mid week analysis Hi traders, I am very much excited to share my analysis of the EURUSD pair on the first week of November, I made this analysis after the FOMC meeting on 03 rd November 2022, EURO against the Dollar pair touches the 5 Weeks high on 27 th October at the closest price level of 1.1000, The bearish outlook continues right from the month’s end and it continues in the first week of November the first week is studded with heavy news releases around the globe, We did not see any change in the downward momentum even after FOMC releases, The dollar gains strength again with a 75 bps rate increase during the FOMC minutes, and Weekend also waiting for ISM Non-manufacturing PMI and NFP news release on Friday evening. Expected to see a further low and the price could travel down toward the 0.97000 zone, Technical analysis suggests that the coming days could be the good one for EURUSD, If the bulls take control on 0.97000, a Triple bottom pattern may form in EURUSD, which could push the price upwards, This analysis is only tentative not a confirmed one The last 45 days' movement clearly shows this pair respecting an upward channel and If we have a pattern confirmation too, then Bull may rage in this pair. Thank you traders for watching this The analysis only for Education purposes
by Akfx369
XAUUSD : Another Sell ??Update : +45 Pips so far The price has again reached the important supply range from $1657 to $1667! We have to see how the price will react to this level when the New York session starts, today is a very important day, so be careful with your trades , because today we will see an increase in the interest rate by the Federal Reserve! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.02.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
14
The week ahead - DXY (31 October 2022)Towards the end of last week, the DXY showed some recovery as it bounced from the 109.50 price area to retest the 111.00 price level. However, the DXY retraced to 110.66 to end the trading week. This will be a big week for the DXY, with the release of the decision of the FOMC regarding the Funds Rate, Statement, and the accompanying press conference due on Thursday. Rather than the interest rate decision, focus more on the forward guidance regarding the path of future rate decisions and the FOMC's view of economic performance. If the DXY fails to trade above the 111 price level early in the week, the DXY is likely to continue to slide and retest the support area of 110 and 109.30. Recent weakness in the US economic data had provided some doubt as to whether the FOMC will persist with its current aggressive path of rate hikes, hence the slide in the DXY. The FOMC is forecasted to increase by 75bps, taking interest rates to 4.00% at the upcoming meeting. This decision is likely to have been priced in already. At the last meeting, the DXY traded higher from the 111 price level, which started the climb toward the high of 114.77. This time, look for the DXY to bounce from the support area possibly toward the 112 resistance level Following the rates decision, on Friday, we'll have the release of key employment data for the US, the Non-Farm (NFP) employment change. The forecast is for a 200k change, from the previous 263k, with the unemployment rate expected to increase slightly to 3.6%. Depending on the reaction from the FOMC news, the NFP news event is likely to have little impact unless there is a significant surprise in the data release. (Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week)
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
8300 Minimum Pips reward for SWING TradersUS Dollar index has been in an overall BULLISH since double bottom chart formation formed at price level 90.00 and it will likely continue in same direction over the next couple of months painting a picture of a repeat of 01 Feb 1985 historical price action, leading the price to 164.50 target Consequently, that will play out if price will be able to Break the minor resistance yellow line at 120.50 giving a take away of about 8300 Pips over the next few months. Swing traders will pose for hopping on the pull backs as the trend continues higher
TVC:DXYLong
by Ejike_Odeh
USDJPYUJ Stacked in a Supply zone fore days. The zone holds in a solid way and everything will be clarified tomorrow during NFP. With a trendline break, I see a sell opportunity at the retest of Trendline and Supply zone. It is very possible to go for a stophunt at approximate levels of 145.9-146.2. So, in order to be safe I will lower my lots and at the same time I will increase the stop loss, with a profit targe at the demand zone and the previous trend line, In case this scenario takes place, it is good to take partials after the 142.5. Do not trade blindly and always follow Risk management. Good luck to everyone and I am waiting your feedback.
Short
by The_Forex_Path
The Bears tried but the Bulls PrevailedXAUUSD Weekly. On NFP day the bulls managed to push the price down by 345 pips which was roughly half of the total bullish move last week. However the bulls managed to break and close above the high of week 19 September. The bulls managed to take control of last week. We mentioned on Friday that the bears would be in better position if they closed below 1687.98 during the closing bell. Unfortunately, they only managed to have a close of 1695.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheTradingPulse
Sell NFP Setup 10/7/22 Decent WeekPatient with the news on the jobs numbers. Immediate drop on the news but it was positive. Being that it was, I decided to wait because there was an opportunity that it could have been a liquidity grab below 3720's equal low and a run for the buy side liquidity. Sold on news break and on times & sales response. Saw the order flow aim at the ask price and the follow through came in afterwards. Once near target 1, watched the buying come in near the low and looked for a new group of orders to come through on the ask and we saw it. Took off the entire trade at target 2 after an attempted partial closure, a mistake but, that for the moment sucks but oh well! The remaining targets are from the HTF, the 4H+FVG, so I made it to the FVG(H). Second pending order within the 5m-FVG at 3706.12 missed. Looked for a final tap on the low of the FVG(L) and didn't get it after the ask was hit again just below it. Good week, not a lot of trading, but finished up pretty well. Most of the moves happened after hours this week or just at a time that I wasn't in front of the screen. NFP data was positive but, this is implication that the Feds don't have to change their behavior and can extend their stance on monetary polices by a continued interest rate increase. We'll definitely need to focus on the CPI numbers next week when we get that data.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by Cory4rex
GBPJPY - FUNDAMENTALS WITH SECHNICAL BIAS#GBPJPY - According to the GBPJPY analysis we gave the previous day, the GBPJPY UP SIDE WAVE went very well. The reason for that was, FUNDAMENTALLY JPY WRAK, GBP STRONG. And because the MARKET SENTIMENT is STRONG. XXXJPY has been BUYing very fast since last week. - JPY has become somewhat WEAK because VIX is slightly DOWN. Due to this, STOCKS and XXXJPY CURRENCY were slightly BUY. GBPJPY also became BUY because of that. But now there is a RISK OFF BIAS. So GJ can still be BUY. - Currently, GBPJPY LONG TERM can move up to the LEVEL of 186.85. Also, if GBPJPY STRUCTURE BRAKE, it can move up to 149.09 LEVEL. Therefore, attention should be paid to MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT.
by benny_marshall
1