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THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. After another successful week on the markets, I would suggest traders take it easy on this one and let them do and take the market to where ever they want, we’ll find the better opportunities next week. To start, looking at our indicators, we still have room for lower pricing, however, there is a key level above sitting around the 2903-10 region. So, we’ll start by saying if they push this up into that level and reject, as in wick, we feel that’s where a minor correction of the move up may start from. Support here stands at the 2860 level, if held that move may complete. Note, the weekly close is important, and If it want’s to close higher, they will need to hold this above the 2880 region, so if they want to break above we may only get scalps from there. On the flip, if they take this down, we’re going to ignore the immediate levels and monitor the key levels below 2830-35 and below that on the break the level of 2810 and 2805. These lower levels are important for price to stay above and would represent opportunities to swing long. Simple one this time, levels are on the chart, less experienced traders should definitely not get involved. Red boxes: Break above 2875 for 2883, 2887, 2900 and 2903 in extension of the move Break below 2860 for 2855, 2850, 2835 and 2820 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
Yen eyes US payrolls, Japan household spending jumpsThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Friday.  This follows a two-day rally which saw the  yen jump  1.9% and hit a three-month high.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.94, up 0.39% on the day.  On the data front, Japan's household spending was much stronger than expected and the US releases nonfarm payrolls. Japan's household spending has been struggling as inflation remains relatively high.  This made the December report a pleasant surprise, as household spending was much higher than expected.  Annually, household spending climbed 2.7%, crushing the market estimate of 0.2% and rebounding from -0.4% in November.  The monthly gain of 2.3% followed the November reading of 0.4% and beat the market estimate of -0.5%. Household spending was the strongest since Aug. 2022, driven by strong wage gains. However, it is questionable whether the impressive gain is a temporary blip, given that the December wage growth was largely driven by bonuses.  Still, real wages (adjusted for inflation) rose for a second straight month in December, which supports the case for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.  BoJ policy makers have been unusually candid about plans to raise rates, although the timing is uncertain, with May or August strong possibilities for the next rate hike. The US wraps up the week with nonfarm payrolls, one of the most important economic events.  The market estimate stands at 170 thousand for January, after a surprisingly strong gain of 256 thousand in December.  If the January forecast is accurate, it would mark a sharp drop that would make headlines, but is close to the past three-month average. The Federal Reserve won't be worried if job creation slows as long as the labor market is cooling at a slow pace.  The Fed is expected to cut rates only once or twice this year, but that could change if inflation or the labor market provide any surprises. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.86.  Next, there is resistance at 152.48 150.83 and 150.21 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures. Global Impact: International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics. Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment: Strong NFP Data: A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures. Weak NFP Data: A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term. This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High. 🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
by Amr-Sadek
2
USDJPY with a 2.95 Profit Factor on the 1-Hourly ChartI’m keeping a close eye on USDJPY right now, and here’s why: - High Profit Factor : Target 1 offers a whopping 2.95 Profit Factor, which is quite attractive. - Timing : Even though NFP is coming up tomorrow, this trade is on the 1-hourly chart. It’s possible that price action could reach my first target or meet the criteria that allows me to shift my stop to entry, thus achieving a risk-free trade, before the big event. Key Points to Remember: - Volatility Alert : NFP can cause sudden market movements. Keep that in mind and monitor your positions closely. - Risk Management : Once the market fulfills the criteria for Target 1, I plan to shift my stop to entry. This approach helps protect any unrealized gains and reduces stress during high-volatility news. If you’re considering this trade, stay cautious around the NFP release, and remember to include our stop-loss buffer to manage your risk effectively. What’s your take on USDJPY heading into NFP? Are you eyeing any other setups? Share your thoughts below! Happy trading, everyone! 🚀
Long
by RaynLim
NFP Main Trend Low -90% Descending Channel 02 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Line chart for clarity of the downward trend. Marker, conditionally, showed the logic of price movement from key support/resistance zones — breakthrough/not breakthrough, consolidation/not consolidation. Understanding this, you should build your trading strategy. Now is a good entry point, subject to risk management. I would advise leaving 20-30% of the money from the position in case the price falls (implementation of scenario B) to the -93-96% zone, immediately or through price growth, to the resistance of the local downward channel (which does not exist yet). If plan A is implemented, then I would advise locally exiting part of the position at the mirror resistance zone of 0.18-0.27. There will be a reversal, and the implementation of plan B, or a cut of the zone, and then an exit. In the long term, the “key” resistance of the pump is 0.0609, it is rational to exit there with most of the position, possibly with a protective stop, or a grid of limit orders, if there is an aggressive price movement. Breaking the structure of the descending channel of the main trend — its reversal, which is logical. I showed it with an arrow, but it is unlikely to happen in the near future. Locally, this is a reversal zone .
Long
by SpartaBTC
2
Pound slips as UK payrolls slideThe British pound continues to show sharp swings this week. After a spectacular 1.3% gain on Monday, GBP/USD has reversed directions and is trading at 1.2233 in the European session, down 0.68% on the day. The UK payrolls report, a reliable indicator of employment growth, showed a sharp decline of 47 thousand m/m in December 2024. This was the largest decline since Nov. 2020 and follows a revised -32 thousand in November. The back-to-back declines are a result of the government's new payroll taxes in the budget, which is causing businesses to release workers. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) remains hot and increased to 5.6% in December, in line with the market estimate and higher than the 5.2% gain in November. While the weak employment data will be a headache for the UK government, it supports the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in order to kick-start the flagging economy. The BoE held rates in December and meets next on Feb. 6, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 85%. Inflation has remained sticky and the jump in wage growth is a reminder of the upside risk of inflation. The BoE may be looking at rate cuts in the coming months but it will have to do so cautiously, ever mindful of inflation. In the US, the strong nonfarm payrolls report for December is raising the possibility that the easing cycle may be over. The Bank of America doesn't expect any rate cuts in 2025 and says the risks for the next move are tilted towards a hike. The Fed started the easing cycle with a bang in September 2024, chopping rates by a half-point, but the strong economy means Fed policy makers may have to consider rate hikes in 2025. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2278. and is putting pressure on support at 1.2211 1.2395 and 1.2462 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
XAUUSD; long-term analysis pre-NFPHere is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels. Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s. Our scenarios are in play after the NFP data is out. Let’s take another look at them with more in-depth outcomes. These scenarios are written from just a TA (Technical Analysis) point of view. Scenario 1: long-term BUYS -We broke above 2675. With the break of 2675 we can expect a possible move up to 2690. With a retest back at 2700s, that would confirm continuation buys and we would have to keep our eye out on our next KL (Key Level) at around 2714 or previous highs at 2726. Scenario 2: long-term SELLS -We respected our KL and stayed below 2675.700. If we start making our way down to 2646 and manage to break below it, we could see more sells in play down to 2604. NFP DATA! WHAT’S COMING? With the NFP data coming out tomorrow , we can expect huge volatility. Spikes are to be expected. With the Jobless claims report we got yesterday, we can possibly anticipate more positive numbers for the TVC:DXY and potentially leading into more sells on OANDA:XAUUSD which would play by our Scenario 2 ! If on the other hand the NFP data comes in lower than expected, we should follow by our long-term Scenario 1 . IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 2690 ; breaks above would result in gold revisiting previous highs - 2675 ; breaks above would result in more upside - 2646 ; breaks below would result in sells - 2633 ; breaks below confirming lower levels - 2620 ; breaks below confirming lower levels - 2604 ; breaks below would confirm gold is bearish and we should see lower levels (2590..) Personal opinion: As the new financial year is here, and we are barely in the first weeks of trading, the direction for now is unclear until we break our mentioned key levels. The spikes we had last few days on XAUUSD did not give us the best or most optimal trading conditions. The market is undecided on the direction, until we get the NFP Data out. Stay patient and be smart. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD breaking above 2675 would confirm buys. - XAUUSD failing to break above 2675 could result in lower prices. - Breaks below 2646 would result in sells. - The market has no directions until we get the NFP Data out on Friday 10th. - Positive NFP Data would result in stronger DXY and lower prices on XAUUSD, potentially following our long-term scenario 2. - Negative NFP Data would result in weaker DXY and higher prices on XAUUSD, potentially following our long-term scenario 1. Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FxPocket
3
Technical Analysis - Gold Spot (XAU/USD)Current Context The chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle, indicating a period of indecision in the market. This pattern is defined by: A downtrend line connecting points B and D (resistance). An upward support line connecting points A and C. Currently, the price is hovering near the resistance line (~$2681.51), close to point D. Possible Scenarios Bullish Breakout: If the price breaks above the resistance around point D (~$2688) with significant volume, this could lead to a bullish rally towards key levels: First target: $2721 (intermediate resistance zone). Second target: $2790 (measured move based on the triangle's height). Bearish Breakdown: If the price fails to break the resistance and reverses lower, it may test the support line near point E. Key levels to watch: First support zone: $2635 - $2617 (highlighted gray area). Major support: $2532, a critical long-term level. Impact of NFP Today's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will likely introduce significant volatility to the market. Two key scenarios to consider: Better-than-expected data: Strengthening of the US Dollar, which could push gold prices lower. Weaker-than-expected data: Weakening of the US Dollar, potentially driving gold to break the resistance and move higher. NFP Economic Calendar Impact - Analysis for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) The economic calendar highlights key data releases that will impact the USD, and subsequently, gold prices. Below is an analysis of the listed events: Key Events at 2:30 PM (UTC+1): Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.4% Impact: A lower-than-expected reading would suggest weaker wage inflation, which could weigh on the USD and push gold prices higher. Conversely, a higher reading would support the USD, pressuring gold. Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP): Forecast: 164K Previous: 227K Impact: This is the most significant release. A lower-than-expected number could signal a weakening labor market, leading to USD depreciation and gold rallying. A strong figure would have the opposite effect. Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.2% Previous: 4.2% Impact: A stable unemployment rate aligns with expectations. However, any surprise movement will amplify the NFP’s impact on the market. Later Events at 4:00 PM: Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 74.0 (unchanged from the previous reading). Impact: Limited unless there is a significant deviation. This sentiment gauge indirectly impacts gold via its influence on the USD. Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations: Previous: 2.8% Impact: Inflationary pressures can support gold prices as a hedge. A higher number here might limit gold's downside. Trading Strategy Suggestions: Before 2:30 PM: Avoid taking significant positions as market volatility will likely increase around these releases. Post-NFP Release: If NFP and Average Hourly Earnings miss forecasts, gold may break above the $2688 resistance, targeting $2721 and $2790. If data is stronger than expected, watch for bearish momentum towards $2635 and $2617. disclaimer This is not financial advice
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trwin
AUD/USD stabilizes after post-NFP slideThe Australian dollar has started the week quietly. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6151, up 0.07% at the time of writing.  Earlier, the Australian dollar fell as low as 0.6130, its lowest level since April 2020. It was another rough week for the Australian dollar, which declined 1.7% last week. The Aussie can't find its footing and has plunged 10.4% in the past three months. Strong US nonfarm payrolls sends Aussie tumbling The week ended with a surprisingly strong US jobs report. In December, the economy added 256 thousand jobs, the most since March 2024. This followed a downwardly revised 212 thousand in November and easily beat the market estimate of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in November. Wage growth also ticked lower, from 4% y/y to 3.9% and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly. The upshot of the jobs report is that the US labor market remains solid and is cooling slowly. For the Federal Reserve, this means there isn't much pressure to lower interest rates in the next few months. That will suit Fed policy makers just fine as it awaits Donald Trump, who has pledged tariffs against US trading partners and mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Either of those policies could increase inflation and the Fed will try to get a read of the Trump administration before cutting rates again. The latest Fed forecast calls for only two rate cuts in 2025 but that could change, depending on inflation and the strength of the labor market. The strong employment numbers boosted the US dollar against most of the majors on Friday and the Australian dollar took it on the chin, falling 0.8%, its worst one-day showing in three weeks. With interest rates likely on hold in the near-term and and high tensions in the Middle East, the safe-haven US dollar should remain attractive to investors in the coming months. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6163 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6188 0.6121 and 0.6096 are providing support
by yesfish
TradeCityPro | ATOMUSDT NFP Report Explanation👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Today, as the NFP news comes out, I want to provide an explanation about this report and analyze today’s altcoin, which I frequently use for futures positions. The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report was released today, Friday, January 10, 2025. According to this report, 256,000 jobs were created in December, exceeding the forecast of 164,000. The unemployment rate also dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. This strong data indicates a continued improvement in the U.S. job market and may push the Federal Reserve to continue its tight monetary policies. As a result, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and interest in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies decreased. After the release of this report, the cryptocurrency market reacted , Bitcoin initially rose to $95,827 but then dropped back to $95,760. 🌐 Overview Bitcoin Before starting today’s analysis, let’s look at Bitcoin in the 1-hour timeframe. It has been almost lifeless since last night, with very small and weak upward candles. With the announcement of the news, it experienced a volatile candle within a small range. Currently, it is below the $95,753 trigger level. With this event, Bitcoin dominance continues to move weakly upward. If this continues and the market declines, altcoins will experience sharper declines. However, if Bitcoin rises, it is better to open a long position on Bitcoin or an altcoin paired positively with Bitcoin. 📊 Weekly Timeframe In the weekly timeframe, this coin rebounded from the $3.789 support with an engulfing candle and made a relatively good upward move, reaching the $10.149 resistance. This led to a rejection from entering the overbought zone. Like most altcoins, no significant movement has occurred, and it has been range-bound within its box for a long time. The topic of stagnant funds is also relevant here. For re-entry in spot trading, you can buy after breaking $10.149, and if you miss that, after breaking $15.738. If you are holding this coin, the logical exit point in the weekly timeframe remains below $3.789. 📈 Daily Timeframe In the daily timeframe, it has performed better than other altcoins. After breaking the $4.923 resistance, which was the top of its daily range, it made a good move up to $10. Currently, while most coins have returned to their previous daily range boxes, ATOM is on a support level one step higher than the $4.923 support. After being rejected from $10.451, it formed lower highs and lower lows. The last rejection was from the $7.447 resistance, leading to a lower high than $10.451 and making this resistance more significant. If $6.115 breaks, we will see both lower highs and lower lows, and the price will move past the 0.618 Fibonacci support level, possibly reaching $4.923. For a re-entry, conditions are similar to AVAX. After breaking $7.447, you can enter with a stop-loss at $6.115. For a more secure entry, wait for $10.451 to break, or look for reactions at lower levels. However, if $6.115 does not break and the price stays in this daily range for a longer time, the $7.447 resistance will become more significant. 📝 Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
13
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve had an extremely decent week on the markets so please take it easy and remember the trade comes after they have made the move. Let them take it to where they want, wait for the exhaustion, identify the reversal, and then look for the trade. Most likely, the best trades come next week! We have the breakout we were looking for out of the 2650-55 region which has now flipped. The resistance above is sitting at 2680-85 and above that 2695-2700. This level needs to be watched, a RIP here and we could see this come all the way back down into the order region again 2655-60 with extension of the move. This region for us would represent an opportunity to take the long trade back for the shorter capture. On the flip, if they take this down during the move, we’ll be looking at the levels below shown on the chart, 2660-55 is a key level, our bias stands at 2645 in extension of the move. These levels may give us opportunities to then long back up if the higher levels are untouched! Although all our bullish targets completed yesterday, we’ll share the Red box levels below as a guide for the intra-day strategy. KOG’s Bias for the day: Bullish above 2645 with targets above 2685, 2694 and 2700 Bearish on break of 2645 with targets below 2635 RED BOXES Break above 2691 for 2700, 2702, 2710 in extension of the move Break below 2675 for 2668, 2655 and 2645 in extension of the move The circled question marks on the chart are our hot spots! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
GOLD: Day 3 breakout traders long up high, NFP day!Hello everyone and welcome back to my channel, please don't forget to support my hard work, and feel free to share your observations if you have any, sharing is the key of improvement! Gold, since the beginning of the week is creeping breaking higher, potentially trapping volume up high for a great, amazing sell off by the end of the day, completing the weekly pump and dump scenario. To understand better the logic behind this forecast, let's analyse the week and remember two very important things! 1. I'm not trying to predict the market, my observation is not regarding any direction move, but I'm underlining the SETUP I'm looking for, more probable and profitable for the day. 2. I would never take any trade before NFP release! Let's see deeply the week: Monday, opening range of the week, established the high low of week, placing a peak formation high and a peak formation low. Tuesday, eventually broke higher and dumped back down into Monday's high, consolidating just above that level, typical of trend trade template. Wednesday a long setup went through the high of week (HOW) and as well broke higher the previous HOW, the trend trade setup was identified as a dump and pump in the day itself. The day closed back inside the daily range, and a peak formation high was in place. Thursday, the market pumped again into the HOW, breaking higher and triggering for the third time breakout traders long in the market, closing the day out of balance (out of the previous weekly boundary). Today, Friday, the market retested again the HOW, essentially is still in breakout and still trending higher, but this kind of behaviour, where the price action is mostly "creepy" and not really strong trending, is very similar to past scenarios already happened where NFP cleaned all the traders long which they didn't take profit or still holding hoping for more profit. How can you take advantage of this? I want to see the market consolidating up high till the NFP release at 8:30am NYT, looking for a sell high opportunity. If not, because the market can be really volatile during this day, after the news I can be looking for a short continuation. What about a long thesis? Can the market keep going higher? The answer is, absolutely yes, the market can explode in the long direction, forecasting is just the same as gambling. So, the real question is, which setup do you have and which setup are you hunting!? In the next update, I will share the potential 2 setups for the day Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by GianniPichichero
26
XAUUSD - The NFP indicator will determine the direction of gold!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. In case of weakness in the data of the employment market and increase in the unemployment rate, you can look for opportunities to buy gold. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate release and a strong NFP headline will lead to a breakout of the bullish and bearish channel in gold. While most major economies are expected to pursue expansionary monetary policies this year, the pace of these measures will likely slow. According to Bloomberg’s forecast, the overall interest rate index in advanced economies is projected to decrease by only 72 basis points in 2025, which is lower than the rate of decline in 2024. Donald Trump, with his electoral promises and economic policies, has become a source of concern for central banks worldwide.If Trump enforces his threats to impose trade tariffs, these policies could harm economic growth and, in the case of retaliatory measures, drive up consumer prices. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) highlighted the “complex” impacts of Trump’s proposed tariffs on metal prices in a recent note. The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada—two of the main suppliers of metals to the U.S.—are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on the market. The bank identified two main concerns. First, the potential negative impact on global growth and the fundamentals of the metals market, particularly if the tariffs escalate into a full-blown trade war. However, BofA predicts that a more “measured approach to trade barriers is likely to prevail,” which would mitigate the overall damage. Second, regional metal prices will need to adjust to the potential tariffs. Bank of America warned that tariffs could strengthen the dollar, increase inflation, and lead to higher interest rates—all of which could pose challenges for the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, they concluded that metal prices are likely to stabilize after the initial volatility subsides, especially if the tariffs are targeted and investments in energy transition continue. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, downplayed expectations of continued monetary easing in 2025 during his December 18, 2024, press conference. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s dissenting vote against a rate cut was surprising, but the major shock to markets came from the Fed members’ projections (dot plot). The Fed members forecast only two rate cuts for 2025, signaling that the monetary easing cycle, which began in September 2024, will slow significantly in the coming year. Powell also admitted that inflation forecasts for the end of the year had been overly optimistic, suggesting that inflation is not yet fully under control. The Fed is increasingly concerned about Trump’s policies, as tools like tariffs could raise import prices and, subsequently, inflation. Forecasts for Friday’s NFP data: • Average estimate: 165K • Lowest estimate: 120K • Highest estimate: 190K The importance of the labor market for monetary policy has slightly diminished following Powell’s December 18 press conference. This indicates that the Fed has some confidence in easing price pressures stemming from the labor market. However, recent data suggests that the labor market has not fully cooled. The upcoming NFP report is expected to show a 160,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth are likely to remain steady at 4.2% and 4%, respectively. If these expectations are unmet, especially with job growth below 50,000, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in Q1 2025 will increase. Currently, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by June 2025, but this move could occur sooner if labor market data remains weak.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USD/CAD in holding pattern ahead of US, Cdn. jobs dataThe Canadian dollar started the week with strong gains but has shown little movement since then. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4411, up 0.12% at the time of writing. We could see stronger movement from the Canadian dollar in the North American session, with the release of Canadian and US employment reports. Canada's economy may not be in great shape but the labor market remains strong. The economy added an impressive 50.5 thousand jobs in November and is expected to add another 24.9 thousand in December. Still, the unemployment rate has been steadily increasing and is expected to tick up to 6.9% in December from 6.8% a month earlier. A year ago, the unemployment rate stood at 5.8%. This disconnect between increased employment and a rising unemployment rate is due to a rapidly growing labor market which has been boosted by high immigration levels. Another sign that the labor market is in solid shape is strong wage growth. Average hourly wages have exceeded inflation and this complicates the picture for the Bank of Canada as it charts its rate path for early 2025. The BoC has been aggressive, delivering back-to-back half point interest rate cuts in October and December 2024. Inflation is largely under control as headline CPI dipped to 1.9% in November from 2% in October. However, core inflation is trending around 2.6%, well above the BoC's target of 2%. The central bank is likely to take a more gradual path in its easing, which likely means that upcoming rate cuts will be in increments of 25 basis points. The BoC meets next on Jan. 29. In the US, all eyes are on today's nonfarm payrolls report. The market estimate stands at 160 thousand for December, compared to 227 thousand in November. The US labor market has been cooling slowly and the Federal Reserve would like that trend to continue as it charts its rate cut path for the coming months. An unexpected reading could have a strong impact on the direction of the US dollar in today's North American session. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4411. Above, there is resistance at 1.4427 1.4388 and 1.4372 are the next support levels
by OANDA
XAUUSD: Gold will continue its upward trend?!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. The continued rise of gold towards the supply zones will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward. The performance of commodities in 2024 was highly diverse. While investors turned to gold as a hedge against inflation, other commodities like iron ore experienced declines due to weak economic growth in China, the world’s largest metals consumer. It seems that the story this year will resemble that of the previous year. Sabrina Chaudhry, Head of Commodities Analysis at BMI Research, stated, “Commodities will generally face pressure in 2025,” adding that the strong US dollar will limit demand for dollar-priced commodities. Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault, a gold investment services company, said investors are optimistic about gold and silver in 2025 due to pessimism surrounding geopolitical conditions and rising government debt, emphasizing gold’s role as a risk hedge. Analysts at J.P. Morgan also predict that gold prices will rise, especially if U.S. policies take a more “disruptive” turn through increased tariffs, heightened trade tensions, and greater risks to economic growth. Gold recorded its best annual performance in over a decade last year. According to FactSet data, gold bullion prices rose by approximately 26% in 2024, driven by central bank purchases as well as retail investment. Data indicates that China purchased gold for the second consecutive month in December. The country’s gold reserves increased to 73.29 million ounces in December, up from 72.96 million ounces in November. China’s gold buying pace has nearly doubled, with December’s 0.33 million-ounce increase significantly surpassing the 0.16 million-ounce rise in November. The value of China’s gold reserves is now estimated at around $191 billion, while its total foreign exchange reserves stand at $3.2 trillion. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has postponed its previous forecast of gold prices reaching $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 to mid-2026. This adjustment is attributed to expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A slower reduction in interest rates in 2025 is likely to limit demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). As a result, analysts such as Lina Thomas and Dan Stryon have forecasted gold prices to reach $2,910 per ounce by the end of the year. In a note, they mentioned that weaker-than-expected ETF inflows in December — attributed to reduced uncertainty following the U.S. elections — also contributed to a lower starting point for prices in the new year. Analysts commented, “Counteracting forces — reduced speculative demand and increased central bank purchases — have effectively neutralized each other, keeping gold prices range-bound in recent months.” They further emphasized that central bank appetite for gold purchases remains a key driver for prices in the long term. Analysts projected, “Looking ahead, we expect monthly gold purchases to average 38 tons through mid-2026.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold is waiting for an important week!!In the 4-hour timeframe, gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is in its short-term descending channel. The continued rise of gold towards the supply zones will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward. The year 2024 turned out to be unprecedented for the global gold market. This precious metal witnessed a remarkable growth of nearly 30%, outperforming all other commodities and emerging as one of the most prominent financial assets of the year. Such exceptional performance has continued to gain the trust of analysts and professionals in the gold and jewelry industry, drawing the attention of many traders to this market. Despite forecasts suggesting that gold prices could surpass $3,000 per ounce in 2025, the beginning of 2024 told a different story. Spot gold prices started the year at around $2,000 but fell to $1,992 by mid-February. However, Valentine’s Day marked a turning point, as gold rebounded strongly, climbing back above $2,000 and successfully maintaining this critical level. A significant market milestone occurred at the end of February. In just two days, gold prices surged by over $60, and on the first trading day of March, the metal broke past the $2,100 threshold, setting a new record. After a period of price consolidation at higher levels, gold resumed its upward trend in the final days of the month, surpassing $2,200. By mid-April, gold approached the $2,400 mark. However, traders were not yet prepared to accept these levels, and by the end of April, spot gold prices had retreated below $2,300. May saw renewed optimism in the precious metals market. On May 16, spot gold decisively broke through the $2,400 resistance level. Nonetheless, after reaching a peak of $2,426, prices entered the longest consolidation phase of 2024. Finally, on June 10, gold once again broke the $2,400 resistance and managed to establish it as a support level. From that point onward, gold embarked on one of its most stable upward trends of the year, which continued through late summer and early autumn. On October 30, gold prices hit a new record of $2,788.54 per ounce. However, the election of Donald Trump on November 5, 2024 (15th of Aban 1403), interrupted gold’s rally. Spot gold, which had reached $2,743 on November 4, dropped within 10 days to the $2,560 range. Nevertheless, gold quickly found new support. The president-elect’s threats of tariffs and trade wars, combined with renewed inflationary concerns, pushed gold prices back above $2,700. Although the metal did not return to its October highs, it maintained strong support at $2,600 for the remainder of the year, preventing further declines. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for gold prices, stating that the metal would not reach $3,000 in 2025. However, the bank remains optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than before.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq, no interest in Santa Rally!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply zone will provide us with the conditions to sell it. In the annual rebalancing of the Nasdaq Index, the shares of Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom saw a reduction in their weighting, while Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet gained more weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this marks the second time in roughly a year that index regulators have adjusted the allocations for its largest members. The rules governing the Nasdaq 100 are designed to prevent a small number of companies from exerting excessive influence on the index. These rules have become increasingly relevant in recent years due to the extraordinary growth in market value of major companies and advancements in artificial intelligence. Although the Nasdaq 100 is weighted by market capitalization, certain limits are enforced if a few companies grow disproportionately large. This recent rebalancing may have been prompted by a rule that allows regulators to reduce the weighting of the top five companies to below 40%, with other adjustments made accordingly. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, remarked, “At times, the Nasdaq 100 has to take such measures because it becomes a victim of its own success; the largest stocks in the index have grown significantly faster than others.” This year, the shares of major technology companies have risen sharply due to advancements in artificial intelligence. Broadcom, a key chip supplier for Apple and other tech giants, reached a market value of $1 trillion. Tesla also surged by around 75% following the U.S. presidential election. In the Nasdaq 100, Apple’s weighting increased from 9.2% to 9.8%, while Nvidia rose from 7.9% to 8.4%. Microsoft and Amazon also gained weight, and Alphabet saw a slight increase. However, Broadcom’s weighting fell from 6.3% to 4.4%, Tesla’s dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%, and Meta’s decreased from 4.9% to 3.3%. Currently, over 200 exchange-traded products, with combined assets totaling approximately $540 billion, track the Nasdaq 100 or its variations globally. Athanasios Psarofagis of Bloomberg Intelligence noted, “This highlights the increasing influence of index providers on market dynamics.” Last year, thanks to the resilience of the economy, strong earnings reports, a 100-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, and the leadership of the Mag7, the S&P 500 recorded 57 new all-time highs (ATHs). On Friday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, speaking at the Maryland Bankers Association, outlined the conditions needed for rate cuts and discussed the broader impacts of the new tariff plan proposed by President-elect Donald Trump. Barkin downplayed the immediate and direct effects of the tariff program. Markets do not anticipate any rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting. The private and non-farm payrolls report (ADP) set to be released on Wednesday, along with Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, could offer a clearer picture of the U.S. labor market ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for December, scheduled for release on Monday, could provide further insights into the overall performance of the U.S. economy, as the services sector accounts for over 80% of GDP. The minutes of the December Fed meeting will also be published on Wednesday, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on markets as updated economic forecasts have already been released. The November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a sharp increase in job creation, with 227,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy. This contrasted with just 12,000 jobs added in October, marking the weakest job growth since December 2020. If the December report also indicates that October’s weakness was temporary, some investors might conclude that even two rate cuts in 2025 would be excessive. This could contribute to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. The key question is whether the stock market, given expectations of fewer rate cuts, will continue its downward trend or recover with signs of robust economic performance.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
Potentially large move on gold inbound.Gold daily is showing price rejection right in the range of $2,666.90 which is an area of confluence of resistance, Icimoku cloud, and a triangle that price has formed. Looking left I can see that the current price is a high traffic zone with many daily candles opening and closing as well as a lot of indecision. Essentially, I can see price churning to the right until Friday, January 10th for NFP. Because the price is in such a zone that it is in right now, bullish or bearish news, I predict price will push to and passed the zones in green and will most likely move to the support and resistance that I has indicated with the arrows.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by windycitytraderphoenix