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Canadian dollar calm ahead of job reportsThe Canadian dollar is on a holding pattern ahead of key Canadian and US employment reports later today. Currently, USD/CAD is trading just above the 1.27 line. It could be an active North American session for the Canadian dollar, with the release of Canada's job creation numbers and the US nonfarm payrolls. Expectations are low for the Canadian data, with a forecast of just 27 thousand new jobs in December, after a robust gain of 153 thousand in November. There is plenty of anticipation around the nonfarm payroll release, however, especially after the monster ADP release earlier this week. The ADP gain of 807 thousand was double the consensus of 400 thousand, but historically, ADP has not been a reliable gauge of nonfarm payrolls. The forecast for NFP is around 425 thousand, and a release below 250 thousand or above 550 thousand could shake up the US dollar. Investors are starting to get nervous now that a Fed rate hike could be only a few months away, and the timeline for the first rate hike could be impacted by the strength of the nonfarm payroll release. A strong gain would strengthen the likelihood of a March hike, while a soft NFP could delay lift-off of a hike, which could lead to a rotation out of US dollars. In determining when to start hiking, policymakers will be looking not only at the strength of the recovery but also at inflationary pressures. The Fed has abandoned its view that inflation is 'transitory' and this week's FOMC minutes indicated that policymakers viewed inflation risks to the upside and are also concerned about the very tight job market. The minutes also stated that the Fed is considering scaling back its balance sheet as another brake on the economy. The markets took note, with 10-year bonds rising above 1.70% and CME FedWatch pegging the likelihood of a March hike above 70%. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2784. Above, there is resistance at 1.2929 There are support levels at 1.2558 and 1.2477
by OANDA
US Dollar Index - Neutral BiasTVC:DXY I am watching the US Dollar index closely as we have seen it stuck in a range for a while now. One thing I like to do when watching for ranges is, looking for a liquidity grab (false move) in either direction before the real move. So if I see the US Dollar wanting to push down, I would love to see the highs taken out before we do so. Same thing if I see the US Dollar wanting to go higher, expect we will take out the lows before doing so. All eyes on Non-Farm Payroll coming up! No bias, purely waiting for price action to tell me where we are going next!
TVC:DXY
by AaronSLuce
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re also approaching the end of the year so markets will likely do the unexpected. As usual we will look at this with two scenarios in mind. There is more that needs to be completed to the upside than there is to the downside at the moment although we are still bearish on this. Scenario one: The price pushes up towards that 1806-10 price level and we see resistance, this region we feel would represent an opportunity to short the market towards the lower levels. Breaking the 1810 price level will invalidate this scenrio. Scenario two: The price pushes down, look for first support level 1785 which is also a KOG target, breaking that level the lower support is 1777. These level we feel would represent an opportunity to go long for a quick capture towards the 1797 and above that 1804-6 price points. Breaking the 1775 level will invalidate this scenrio. Support: 1785/1777/1767/1760/1757 Resistance: 1797/1804/1806/1810-12 As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
5
DXY D1 - Short Correction ExpectedDXY D1 Like we mentioned, non-farm payrolls, average earnings and unemployment figures are coming out this afternoon 1:30pm UK time, so as the NA session comes into play. We can expect some nice volume. This may be the trend setter for the month ahead. We are obviously hoping to see the USD correct and pull down towards that 94.500 region, which would compliment our cable longs. Additionally, this would give us confidence in looking for resumed USD bull continuations from the 94.500 price.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
$Gold TA in 4H TF : 01.07.22 $XAUUSDWell, as you can see, yesterday in the 4-hour time frame, we saw the first and most important bearish signal with the opening of the New York market, and the price started to fall exactly from the $ 1830 range, and so far it is in the $ 1790 range. It has given us a return more than 400 pips. If $ 1785 support is broken, the next targets are $ 1777 and $ 1765. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 07.Jan.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
Yen edges below 116, inflation nextThe Japanese yen has edged higher and is back below the 116 level. Still, the yen remains vulnerable, especially with US treasury yields moving higher. Earlier in the week, USD/JPY broke above116 line for the first time since January 2017. The dollar has managed to push the yen to 5-year lows on the back of rising US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield, which finished 2021 above the 1.50% level, hasn’t missed a beat in the first week of 2022 and has pushed above 1.70%. The widening US/Japan rate differential has been weighing on the yen, which is extremely sensitive to the rate differential. If US yields remain high, I would not be surprised to see USD/JPY break past the 118 mark over the coming weeks. Inflation has become a hot topic for the Federal Reserve and the BoE, as policymakers must deal with inflation levels that are double or triple the banks’ inflation target of 2%. In Japan, inflation has been at low levels for years, with deflation a constant problem. However, Japan hasn’t been immune to surging energy costs and rising prices of raw materials, and inflation is now getting some attention from the Bank of Japan. We’ll get a look at Tokyo Core CPI for December later in the day, which is expected to rise to 0.5% y/y, up from 0.3% in November. With the FOMC minutes behind us, the markets are anxiously awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payroll report. The ADP employment report surprised to the upside, with a massive 807 thousand new jobs, double the consensus of 400 thousand. The huge gain led Goldman Sachs to upwardly revise its forecast by 50 thousand to 500 thousand and some analysts are projecting a print north of the 1-million mark. Still, it should be remembered that the ADP report has not been a reliable indicator for nonfarm payrolls. The consensus for the NFP stands at 424 thousand, and if the reading comes in below expectations, we could see the US dollar falter as a weak NFP could delay the timeframe for the first rate hike of 2022. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 115.78. Above, there is resistance at 116.38 There is support at 114.54 and 113.98
by OANDA
Euro recaptures 1.13, German PMI declinesThe euro started the New Year with sharp losses, but the currency has rebounded on Wednesday, posting gains of 0.44% and punching above the 1.13 level. Germany's service sector showed contraction in December, falling below the 50-level for the first time in eight months. The PMI fell from 52.7 to 48.7 points. The German recovery stalled in December, as the country was hit by a fourth wave of Covid and tighter health restrictions dampened business activity, especially exports. The silver lining is that despite the current difficult conditions, German service providers remain optimistic that business conditions will rebound during the year. The German PMI was significantly lower than the all-eurozone PMI, which came in at 53.1 points. In the US, the ADP employment report surprised to the upside, with a December reading of 807 thousand new jobs, double the consensus of 400 thousand. The estimate for the nonfarm payroll report on Friday is 424 thousand, but the ease in which the ADP crushed the estimate could mean that the NFP forecast is too low. Still, it is worth noting that the ADP report only covered the first two weeks of December, before the massive spike in Omicron cases. Later today, we'll get a look at the FOMC minutes from the December policy meeting. The Fed recently abandoned its 'transitory inflation' label, as inflation, which is running at a 40-year high, shows no signs of easing anytime soon. The Fed has shifted to a hawkish stance and plans to double the size of its tapers from USD 15 billion to USD 30 billion. This will be followed by the first rate hike in three years. Lift-off could come as early as March - Fed Watch has priced in a March hike at over 60%. The markets expect the Fed to be more hawkish and have priced in three rate hikes in 2022. EUR/USD has support at 1.1303. Below, there is support at 1.1232 There is resistance at 1.1456 and 1.1415
by OANDA
1
Pound dips below 1.35, Omicron surgesThe British pound has started the New Year in negative territory. GBP/USD has dipped just below the symbolic 1.35 level. The British pound ended 2021 with a winning week, gaining 1.03%. It was the second week in a row in which GBP/USD gained over 1%, as the risk-sensitive pound continued to make inroads against the safe-haven US dollar. On Thursday, GBP/USD rose to 1.3520, its highest level since November 10th. The catalyst driving the pound's rally has been strong risk appetite, which hasn't waned despite the explosion in the number of Omicron cases. The UK has been setting new records of Covid-19 cases as Omicron rages, and a government study estimates that 1 in 10 people in London is infected with Covid. The markets have remained optimistic, noting that Omicron is less severe than previous variants of Covid, but there are concerns that Omicron could lead to a huge strain on hospitals. Meanwhile, industries and transport networks are reporting staff shortages as sick workers self-isolate, which will weigh on activity in the services sector. The government has not introduced new health restrictions, but that could change if hospitalisation rates move higher. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will deliver an update on restrictions later today, and his comments could move the pound. If the government does announce new restrictions, investors could react negatively and extend the pound's losses. After a light economic calendar during Christmas week, there are key events on both sides of the pond this week. The markets will get a look at PMIs in both the US and the UK, and the US releases nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week. The December NFP is expected to jump to 400 thousand, up from 210 thousand in November. GBP/USD has support at 1.3426 and 1.3329 There is resistance at 1.3585 and 1.3647
by OANDA
NFP Undershoots, Markets UnmovedNovember 2021 Non-Farm Payrolls Data Release Last Friday saw the release of the monthly US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for November 2021. This data is often closely watched by markets for clues as to the state of the US labour market and economy, and as such, the data can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. However, it has been a long time since NFP releases tended to materially move markets, and last week was no exception. The key headline was the creation of only 210,000 net new jobs, when the consensus forecast by analysts expected as much as 553,000. This was a big undershoot but markets barely reacted. This may be partially because even with such a large undershoot in new jobs, the US unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month on month, although 0.4% was expected. The US unemployment rate at 4.2% is at a 21-month low so it can be seen that the US labour market is tightening and that is no surprise as everyone already knows it is. This was the crucial element of the data. Market Reaction to NFP Data In a nutshell, markets barely reacted, or at least the price movements following the release were proportionate to the price action already happening in all major assets such as the S&P 500 Index or the US Dollar Index. This is partly because the NFP just is not the key driver of monetary policy that it used to be, and partly because it is soaring US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s reaction to it that is now the fundamental issue of most concern to market analysts. With the Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell calling to speed up tapering and removing the word “transitory” from his description of the current inflationary situation, markets are going to keep a laser-like focus on next Friday’s US CPI (inflation) data, which is very likely to trigger a major move in the markets even if it comes in at the widely expected month on month increase of 0.7%. What Does This Mean for Traders? Traders should ignore the NFP data and, at least until Friday’s release of US CPI (inflation) data, trade in line with market sentiment. Prevailing market sentiment is risk-off, meaning stocks, commodities, and commodity currencies and the British Pound are likely to be weak, while the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and US dollar are likely to be strong. This will probably continue until positive news about the omicron coronavirus variant begins to emerge and will be overshadowed during Friday’s New York session by the inflation data in any case. Of course, it is possible that bad news may begin to emerge regarding the virulence of omicron, and this will be likely to increase risk-off flow.
TVC:DXY
by SmoothJB
XAUUSD 12H : 06.DEC.2021 : Bull or Bear ?The price of gold has reached an important static level, which puts two scenarios in front of us, if the price closes below $ 1776, we can expect a fall to the range of $ 1766. Scenario 2 also happens with the breaks of the downtrend channel , in which case with the breaking of this channel we can look for a trigger for Buy position. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 06.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
2
XAUUSD 4H : 03.DEC.2021 : Bull or Bear ? (NFP)NFP Trading ?? Bull or Bear ? What do you Think ? The price is currently held by the support level of $ 1770, but has lost its dynamic support and has completed its pullback to that level. If the level of 1770 breaks, our Sell position trigger will be activated. The targets will be $ 1760, $ 1747 and $ 1727, respectively. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 03.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
5
XAUUSD 12H : 03.DEC.2021 : Bull or Bear ? (NFP)NFP Trading ?? Bull or Bear ? What do you Think ? The price is currently held by the support level of $ 1770, but has lost its dynamic support and has completed its pullback to that level. If the level of 1770 breaks, our Sell position trigger will be activated. The targets will be $ 1760, $ 1747 and $ 1727, respectively. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 03.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
3