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Gold analysis ahead of NFP: Its all about sentiment Fundamental View: It is almost clear that the fundamental reports are not dominating the gold market for a few weeks. Last two weeks are several U.S. market mover data have already been released. Most of the fundamental reports were printed positive, but they didn't help the USD against gold. The only reason behind these odd market movements is playing market sentiment. Most of the countries are facing inflationary pressure. So investors are scared of 2008 style economic crisis because of covid-19. As a result, sentiment is supporting safe-haven asset gold despite the U.S. positive financial reports. Today the bureau of labor statistics will release the U.S. job market report. NFP is a major economic report for a knee-jerk movement for the gold price, and there is no doubt. But the question is will this report help the USD, or will it be another message to investors? What will happen if the NFP print is positive than forecast? If the NFP report print is positive (above 500k) than forecast, there will be a positive impact on the USD against gold. I mean, the gold price will drop, at least for the next FOMC release. Because in the FOMC fed, members announced that the tapering is data-dependent. Of course, NFP is the major economic data. So, a positive NFP number will help the USD till another FOMC release. But keep it kind, as the market sentiment is helping the safe-haven asset gold. So, don't expect much that the gold will drop heavily. On the other hand, a positive labor market report may help test the gold price in the nearly 1720/1725 price zone. What will happen if the NFP print is negative than forecast? There will be a disaster in the market. Whether positive U.S reports cannot weaken the gold, negative reports must throw the dollar in the air because market sentiment is helping to raise the gold price as a safe-haven asset. SO, if the NFP report prints negative than the forecast, we may buy gold again till the 1830/1835 price zone. Today NFP forecasted 490k jobs would be added in the labor market where the last report was 235k. I think NFP will be positive. Because some latest major economic reports like ADP, ISM reports, Unemployment claims, Core PCE, and Final GDP printed positively than forecast. So, there is a big chance that the NFP may print positive today. Technical view: From the present rate, 1765 to 177o is identifying the resistance level. So, breaking above 1770 will open the door for the 1780/1785 price zone. So 1785 may play as a strong resistance level. But if the NFP print is too negative, gold will immediately break the 1785 price and may test the next resistance 1800/1805 price zone. And to the final upside target is the 1830/1835 price zone. On the other hand, a positive NFP report may help the USD. from the present rate 1745 is identifying near-term support. After breaking and stable below 1745, our next target is the 1735/1730 price zone. After breaking below 1730, our final downside target is the 1720/1723 price zone.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
EURUSD: 1.15000 after NFPAnd so, the Euro is trading at 1.15630 ahead of the NFP. Analysts predict a positive NFP for the US dollar. Also, the currency pair remains bearish mood. A scenario is quite possible in which immediately after the release of news data, the price would sharply fall to 1.15000 and, most likely, rebound up again. The price range today is the price area 1.15000 - 1.15890. Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy! Thanks for the likes and comments.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn15614419
2
EURUSD before NFPEveryone who has been following our daily analysis knows what we expect from EURUSD As of right now everything remains the same! The key resistance is 1,1580 and once price rejects it, this will be our entry with targets down to 1,1510. Entries before NFP are quite risky and not so reasonable. We did have some good opportunities, but now we have to wait. We will be waiting for the news to come out and the first few minutes after that. Price will probably rise and it will then leave a long wick to the upside, which will be the best entry signal.
Short
by ForexTrendline
23
USD/JPY Bullish Pennant Breakout in Focus Ahead of NFPsUSD/JPY may be readying to resume the late-September uptrend as prices appear to break above a Bullish Pennant. Still, highs from 2020 may act as key resistance between 111.68 and 112.22. All eyes are on the US jobs report as the Fed gets ready to taper quantitative easing. A rosy outcome could further boost US bond yields, sending USD/JPY higher. Conversely, a materially softer print risks derailing USD/JPY gains. A breakout above 112.22 exposes the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 112.63 towards 113.139. Otherwise, a turn back lower places the focus on the early October low at 110.79. FX_IDC:USDJPY
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
GBPJPY > In-depth Analysis for Buys and Sells!!I hope you are feeling generous and loving today to give me a like and leave a comment it will really support the creation of new free ideas for you. Analysis on #GBPJPY GBPJPY is one of my most profitable pairs ever for me, I remember when I started trading in 2010, it was the most feared pair that I always trade for many years to come, but not anymore, we love each other now, for the time being at least. As you can see on the chart this market still respecting its trendline resistance and trendline support levels, and I can still expect the market to do so right now. if the market rally up to its trendline resistance I will then look for a reason to sell targeting the next level of support if the market moved to test its trendline support level I will then look for a reason to buy the market targeting the next level of resistance I always thank you so much for the time you spent here. Check today's analysis below⠀ >>“ luck is when preparation meets opportunity." _____________________________________________________________________________⠀ -Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to BUY or SELL. It is to be used for educational purposes only⠀ -Please note this is just a PREDICTION and I have no reason to act on it and neither should you
by TheTradersAvenue
9
AUDUSD > Detailed Plan for Sells and Buys!I hope you are feeling generous and loving today to give me a like and leave a comment it will really support the creation of new free ideas for you. Analysis on #AUDUSD While getting ready for the NFP release, here is my detailed plan for AUDUSD. As you see the market now at resistance level, but i would not sell here before having or confirmation reversal pattern that meet my rules for entry. if the market breaks and closes above it resistance level that will give me a great idea where i want to buy to target the next level of major resistance if the rules are met I always thank you so much for the time you spent here. Check today's analysis below⠀ >>“ luck is when preparation meets opportunity." _____________________________________________________________________________⠀ -Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to BUY or SELL. It is to be used for educational purposes only⠀ -Please note this is just a PREDICTION and I have no reason to act on it and neither should you
by TheTradersAvenue
6
Gold's weekly Bearish triangle (Update 1)Goodday traders and welcome to the last week of Q3 where trend reversals tend to happen, Last week was an important week for the last trading quarter of the year. The FED announced they will taper in November or December depending on the data and will finish their tapering program by mid-2022. Roughly the market expects a gradual tapering of Quantitative Easing by $20 billion a month. More specifics are expected to be announced by the next FOMC meeting. This will affect the financial markets, from precious metals, commodities to the forex market. A little breakdown of what is expected the coming 3 months. DXY Buy the rumour, sell the news. After a solid bullish rally in Q3 on bets that the FED would taper its asset purchasing program, investors and traders are taking profits on their trades. I expect the dollar to show weakness in the rest of the year. Technically it made a 'lower high major trend reversal' on the daily chart with a H&S and an engulfing bearish daily candle on Thursday to confirm the bearish trend reversal. Forex This will weigh heavily on the forex market and I expect to see a resumption of the bullish trend in the forex market. This means EUR, NZD, GBP and other currencies will gain strength in Q4. From all currencies, I expect GBP to be the strongest due to the hawkish BoE implying a possible rate hike in November 2021. Gold While we saw currencies fly high on Thursday after the FED announcement, gold got hammered further and dropped $60 nearly hitting my 1735 target. Gold clearly didn't like what Powell said and remains under strong bearish pressure. The daily even has some more room to go down to 1720, with no bullish presence to be found. But this all could change in the coming weeks. Bears managed to close the Thursday candle below 'the big 1750', but bulls did some damage control by closing the week just above it with an inverted hammer candlestick (the opposite of a hanging man). This is a high probability reversal candle. Combined with my expectation of a weak dollar and a bearish exhaustion pattern on the H4 chart, I am seeing a bullish reversal building up from the 1720-1740 support zone with the first target being 1800 and 1870 as the final target. Technically I am missing one more lower high to 1850-1870 on the weekly chart to complete an ABDCE-pattern before the breakdown of 1680. Currently I am not interested to sell gold at this price anymore, so I will be looking for a buy opportunity. However, we need a clear engulfing daily candle combined with a bullish divergence to confirm the start of the bull rally. Fundamentally, the next NFP might be the trigger to ignite the bull rally. All to be seen in the coming weeks. Enjoy your weekend, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
5
EURUSD: waiting for an extension of the pullbackHi Guys, the idea on this pair is to wait for an extension of the pullback to exceed 1.19088. This move was enbedded in the divergence between sentiment and price lows and stopped at July H in conjunction with NFP release on Sept.3rd. In this occasion the indicator didn't stop and exceeded it's July H forming a divergence also between latest two tops. Price: NFP H = July H RSI: NFP H > July H Today price has been hit by some near-term profit taking. However I still look for an extension above July H running possibly into 200SMA at 1.20029. To enter the market I am waiting for a bullish set up on LTF that may boost an attack to July H. Today's German Factory Order should be supportive for the EUR and also for EU GDP data to be released tomorrow. Important ECB meeting will take place on Thursday. The expected move may not take place before ECB meeting is finished. Be ready to take action only when right set up favours your objectives. If you have any queries please do not hesitate to ask. Good luck everybody! Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt.
by cozzamara
Aussie rally pauses ahead of RBAThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Monday, after flexing some muscle last week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7430, down 0.35% on the day. The currency shot up 1.94% last week, as investor appetite for risk improved, which was bullish for minor currencies like the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar ended the week on a high note, with strong gains of 0.75%. This was in response to a shocker from US nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which added just 235 thousand jobs. The consensus was around 750 thousand jobs and some analysts were even calling for a print north of the 1 million mark. The soft NFP reading effectively put on hold any expectations that the Federal Reserve would signal tapering at its policy meeting later this month, and that has weighed on the US dollar. The Aussie has reversed directions on Monday, but I would not read too much into that, as US markets are closed for Labour Day, and liquidity is thin, which could account for the US dollar bouncing back on Monday after a poor showing last week. The RBA holds a policy meeting on Tuesday, and the markets will be keeping a close eye on what the central bank decides with regard to a planned taper. At the August meeting, policy makers adhered to plans to taper weekly bond purchases from AUD 5 billion to AUD 4 billion. Since then, the economy has taken a hit from prolonged lockdowns due to the Delta variant of Covid-19, and GDP in the third quarter may have contracted by as much as 3%. The big question is will the RBA feel that a taper is warranted, given that economic conditions are not all that favorable. If the central bank says that it will begin a taper next month, the Australian dollar could respond with strong gains.
by OANDA
1
Bye-Bye Tapering Announcement (06 September 2021)Jobs growth in August way off market’s expectation. Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 235,000 jobs being created in August, way below the market’s expectation of 720,000. The leisure and hospitality sector, the main driver behind the strong jobs growth for the past several months, added zero jobs amid the rise in COVID cases. With the leisure and hospitality sector taking a backseat, the professional and business services sector led the August’s jobs growth with an increase of 74,000 jobs. The worsening COVID situation has impacted the job market more negatively in August than in July. 5.6 million people reported not being able to work as their employer wind down business due to the pandemic. This figure rose from the July’s figure of 5.2 million. All is not lost. Despite the poor August figure, upward revisions were made to the number of jobs created for the past two months. In July, the number of jobs created was revised from 943,000 to 1,053,000 while in June, the figure was revised from 938,000 to 962,000. In total, these revisions reflected 134,000 jobs more than previously reported. Furthermore, based on history, nonfarm payroll figures have a tendency of subjecting to substantial revision due to discrepancies as a result of people going on summer vacation. Hence, there is a chance that the scanty figure released this month may be revised upwards to salvage the situation a little even though the shortfall may be too big. Chance of a September taper announcement is dimming. Without a doubt, the Federal Reserve is not going to like what they see from this jobs report. This will definitely lower the chance that the central bank will be making a QE tapering announcement during their meeting later this month. As a result, the Fed may postpone such an announcement to the meeting in November while buying some time for the jobs market to prove its worth.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee