AUDUSD > Detailed Plan for Sells and Buys!I hope you are feeling generous and loving today to give me a like and leave a comment it will really support the creation of new free ideas for you.
Analysis on #AUDUSD
While getting ready for the NFP release, here is my detailed plan for AUDUSD.
As you see the market now at resistance level, but i would not sell here before having or confirmation reversal pattern that meet my rules for entry.
if the market breaks and closes above it resistance level that will give me a great idea where i want to buy to target the next level of major resistance if the rules are met
I always thank you so much for the time you spent here.
Check today's analysis below⠀
>>“ luck is when preparation meets opportunity."
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-Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to BUY or SELL. It is to be used for educational purposes only⠀
-Please note this is just a PREDICTION and I have no reason to act on it and neither should you
Nfp
Gold opinion for this weekWe have a nice rising wedge pattern and I believe gold will bounce up and down within the pattern until it reaches the levels of 1780s. If NFP data release is positive as expected, I believe gold will then push to the downside towards the level of 1720s. If this gets broken too, we might look at further sell off towards the major support at 1680s.
*This is my personal analysis and point of view. Trade at your own risk!
Gold's weekly Bearish triangle (Update 1)Goodday traders and welcome to the last week of Q3 where trend reversals tend to happen,
Last week was an important week for the last trading quarter of the year. The FED announced they will taper in November or December depending on the data and will finish their tapering program by mid-2022. Roughly the market expects a gradual tapering of Quantitative Easing by $20 billion a month. More specifics are expected to be announced by the next FOMC meeting. This will affect the financial markets, from precious metals, commodities to the forex market. A little breakdown of what is expected the coming 3 months.
DXY
Buy the rumour, sell the news. After a solid bullish rally in Q3 on bets that the FED would taper its asset purchasing program, investors and traders are taking profits on their trades. I expect the dollar to show weakness in the rest of the year.
Technically it made a 'lower high major trend reversal' on the daily chart with a H&S and an engulfing bearish daily candle on Thursday to confirm the bearish trend reversal.
Forex
This will weigh heavily on the forex market and I expect to see a resumption of the bullish trend in the forex market. This means EUR, NZD, GBP and other currencies will gain strength in Q4. From all currencies, I expect GBP to be the strongest due to the hawkish BoE implying a possible rate hike in November 2021.
Gold
While we saw currencies fly high on Thursday after the FED announcement, gold got hammered further and dropped $60 nearly hitting my 1735 target. Gold clearly didn't like what Powell said and remains under strong bearish pressure. The daily even has some more room to go down to 1720, with no bullish presence to be found. But this all could change in the coming weeks.
Bears managed to close the Thursday candle below 'the big 1750', but bulls did some damage control by closing the week just above it with an inverted hammer candlestick (the opposite of a hanging man). This is a high probability reversal candle. Combined with my expectation of a weak dollar and a bearish exhaustion pattern on the H4 chart, I am seeing a bullish reversal building up from the 1720-1740 support zone with the first target being 1800 and 1870 as the final target.
Technically I am missing one more lower high to 1850-1870 on the weekly chart to complete an ABDCE-pattern before the breakdown of 1680. Currently I am not interested to sell gold at this price anymore, so I will be looking for a buy opportunity. However, we need a clear engulfing daily candle combined with a bullish divergence to confirm the start of the bull rally. Fundamentally, the next NFP might be the trigger to ignite the bull rally. All to be seen in the coming weeks.
Enjoy your weekend,
Cesaro
EURUSD: waiting for an extension of the pullbackHi Guys,
the idea on this pair is to wait for an extension of the pullback to exceed 1.19088.
This move was enbedded in the divergence between sentiment and price lows and stopped at July H in conjunction with NFP release on Sept.3rd. In this occasion the indicator didn't stop and exceeded it's July H forming a divergence also between latest two tops.
Price: NFP H = July H
RSI: NFP H > July H
Today price has been hit by some near-term profit taking.
However I still look for an extension above July H running possibly into 200SMA at 1.20029.
To enter the market I am waiting for a bullish set up on LTF that may boost an attack to July H.
Today's German Factory Order should be supportive for the EUR and also for EU GDP data to be released tomorrow.
Important ECB meeting will take place on Thursday.
The expected move may not take place before ECB meeting is finished.
Be ready to take action only when right set up favours your objectives.
If you have any queries please do not hesitate to ask.
Good luck everybody!
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt.
Aussie rally pauses ahead of RBAThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Monday, after flexing some muscle last week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7430, down 0.35% on the day. The currency shot up 1.94% last week, as investor appetite for risk improved, which was bullish for minor currencies like the Australian dollar.
The Australian dollar ended the week on a high note, with strong gains of 0.75%. This was in response to a shocker from US nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which added just 235 thousand jobs. The consensus was around 750 thousand jobs and some analysts were even calling for a print north of the 1 million mark.
The soft NFP reading effectively put on hold any expectations that the Federal Reserve would signal tapering at its policy meeting later this month, and that has weighed on the US dollar. The Aussie has reversed directions on Monday, but I would not read too much into that, as US markets are closed for Labour Day, and liquidity is thin, which could account for the US dollar bouncing back on Monday after a poor showing last week.
The RBA holds a policy meeting on Tuesday, and the markets will be keeping a close eye on what the central bank decides with regard to a planned taper. At the August meeting, policy makers adhered to plans to taper weekly bond purchases from AUD 5 billion to AUD 4 billion. Since then, the economy has taken a hit from prolonged lockdowns due to the Delta variant of Covid-19, and GDP in the third quarter may have contracted by as much as 3%.
The big question is will the RBA feel that a taper is warranted, given that economic conditions are not all that favorable. If the central bank says that it will begin a taper next month, the Australian dollar could respond with strong gains.
Bye-Bye Tapering Announcement (06 September 2021)Jobs growth in August way off market’s expectation.
Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 235,000 jobs being created in August, way below the market’s expectation of 720,000. The leisure and hospitality sector, the main driver behind the strong jobs growth for the past several months, added zero jobs amid the rise in COVID cases. With the leisure and hospitality sector taking a backseat, the professional and business services sector led the August’s jobs growth with an increase of 74,000 jobs.
The worsening COVID situation has impacted the job market more negatively in August than in July. 5.6 million people reported not being able to work as their employer wind down business due to the pandemic. This figure rose from the July’s figure of 5.2 million.
All is not lost.
Despite the poor August figure, upward revisions were made to the number of jobs created for the past two months. In July, the number of jobs created was revised from 943,000 to 1,053,000 while in June, the figure was revised from 938,000 to 962,000. In total, these revisions reflected 134,000 jobs more than previously reported.
Furthermore, based on history, nonfarm payroll figures have a tendency of subjecting to substantial revision due to discrepancies as a result of people going on summer vacation. Hence, there is a chance that the scanty figure released this month may be revised upwards to salvage the situation a little even though the shortfall may be too big.
Chance of a September taper announcement is dimming.
Without a doubt, the Federal Reserve is not going to like what they see from this jobs report. This will definitely lower the chance that the central bank will be making a QE tapering announcement during their meeting later this month. As a result, the Fed may postpone such an announcement to the meeting in November while buying some time for the jobs market to prove its worth.
NZDUSD Upside bias still in place. Hello Traders,
Enter on the trend line break to the upside.
"US futures (reminder that it is a US holiday) are steady as equities are keeping the calm despite the payrolls miss on Friday, which does cast some doubt on Fed taper expectations and in turn, keeps the thought that easy money is here to stay for longer."
As NZD is a risk sensitive currency it follows the main indices. (risk-on, risk-off)
Have a great week!
Vitez
#DXY 1D : (Update) 06.Sep.2021As you can see, exactly according to the previous analysis, the dollar index fell to the range of 92 and reached its first support range, now there are two scenarios, one is that the price will break this level and continue to fall, and the second scenario That is, the price should be supported in this range and fluctuate in this Area.
MAJOR CURRENCY MARKET GAIN POSITIVE MOTION AMIDST WEAK NFP REPORMAJOR CURRENCY MARKET GAIN POSITIVE MOTION AMIDST WEAK NFP REPORT
September 4/2021
The major currencies market was seen earlier on Friday 3rd September 2021 moving in a low volatility state, in preparation for the NFP report. market analysts and economy forecasts expertise have, however, set up an expectation ahead of the US economy Non-farm payroll update in which the actual forecast was targeted at 665K but the previous release attained by the NFP data in July was 798K.
A higher than expected analysis for the US job employment update could bring a bullish presence into the market. While On the other hand a lower than expected report will result in a bearish posture In the market. But for the August US job payment employees report a weaker than expected figures surge the US employment data, thus a positive price action will be appreciated on the side of every greenback combining pairs.
Therefore, the major currencies had a positive dynamic price action in the just concluded trading session.
Technical Analysis forecast and market likely expectations for the EURUSD next trading week: it should be noted that the price of the EuroVS US dollar in the last trading session has, however, broke above two prime resistance hence on the report of the NFP data last Friday could result in an increasing number of buyers who are interested in taking the price of EURUSD pair to the third resistance point which is set at 1.20235
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XauUsDchart: Gold
TimeFrame: H4
Analysis Method: Technical Analysis
Analysis : If it break 1830 level then it will go up. But i thin it will go down badly so be prepare and put S.L in every correct point.
Trade Plan: Scalping + long term
Risk Management 0.4%
Things to Watch For : Wait for New .Its Depend on data .
🟡 XAUUSD 1D (Update) 🟡Well, we saw that with the announcement of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) , the market finally found its direction (Trend) and dollar Index began to fall sharply , and gold reached to 1830$ Resistance level . Now we have to see if the price can stabilize above the level of $ 1823 or not ... After such a growth, the market will probably fluctuate in the same range next week and eventually move back to $ 1830.
XAUUSD (Update) 4H : +180 Pips✅Well, we saw that with the announcement of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) , the market finally found its direction (Trend) and dollar Index began to fall sharply , and gold reached to 1830$ Resistance level . Now we have to see if the price can stabilize above the level of $ 1823 or not ... After such a growth, the market will probably fluctuate in the same range next week and eventually move back to $ 1830.
What's happening on with GOLD? GOLD has been moving in a range of 15$ for a whole week now.
This is not unusual but normally after such a thing price tends to fluctuate a lot. We could see a breakout tomorrow during the NFP.
Right now we're in an uptrend on the hourly chart and it's more likely to see price continuing in that direction.
The first resistance is at 1829.
However, it's better if we don't enter any trades before we have an economic event because that could affect price and reverse the trend.
The key support level is 1800. If we do get a break below this level tomorrow that would mean we will be looking for short trades only.
Expect our analysis just after the NFP tomorrow.
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