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GOLD after NFP! Where is it going?During the last month GOLD has been ranging between the 1790-1930 levels. Sooner or later everything is changing and this will end. The news today are a suitable moment for a breakout of this range. The initial impulse is strong and we now have a close below the support. The next support to keep an eye on is at 1760! If you currently have any short positions you can leave them with those targets and also move your SL to break even. We don't suggest entering any short trades now with targets at 1760. If you get involved now, then you won't have a good risk to reward ratio! That's why it will be better to miss this move rather then enter a position right now. In case of a pullback to the resistance, then we could look for a reversal signal and then possibly find a better entry. Are we going to have another entry opportunity? Well, that depends on how this move will continue. Follow us to see how this situation on GOLD will develop! Support us by follow, like and leave a comment down below!
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ForexTrendline
25
Gold Following our predictionFirstly, I would like to highlight the breakout even from last sideway zone 1806-1809. The price gain momentum and going down almost immediately to 1797.88 before making pullback and close below the sideway zone. This show that now, the price will looking for the nearest resistance before continuing its journey to our buy zone. And as for now, after the price making retracement at the 1806-1809 zone, the price go to our SND Zone for buy which is the yellow zone, 1798.51-1800.48. and now its playing around the zone for quite several times today (See H1). I am expecting the price to hit the lowest nearest support at Super Low Risk by NFP today. MY PLAN FOR NFP? 1. If the price still around this zone (1798.51-1800.48), I will looking for breakout and scalping for sell with closest target @ 1796-1794. Second TP would be to Super Low Risk zone @ 1790- 1793. And the we are looking for buy in the zone. But to trade at first TP area for buy position is quite risky because of price momentum during NFP, thus i suggested to wait the data and also for super low risk zone. 2. If the price already went down, we just wait for retracement in the SLRZ (super low risk zone) or LRZ (low risk zone), depend on the timing, momentum, and price action. Most important not to hold your position for too long. Just take your profit if Full Margin around 20-30 pips, or maybe take control manually your trade to avoid big losses. Anyway, NFP is a very high risk and volatile trading, thus manage your capital wisely. Its an event for going big or go home. If you have some willing to lose money without any regret, this is your time. If there is any opinion regarding my idea, you guys can comment and we will discuss different view regarding our market today. Best of luck guys. -EraBiru, HXF Academy- HXF FX
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridzwanfahmie1
XAU- Before the storm.NFP day, the excitement for the month, and I have picked up on this harmonic structure on the 30m timeframe, Now if we can see DXY make a move down to S3 support and the weekly low around 91.80 this harmonic will work a treat, However you need to wait for confirmation of this move, we need volume or PA to tell us we have found support, currently price is struggling and hasnt reacted that strongly, but we are in a dead spot before London and New york and more importantly for today the NFP volume, Proceed with caution, but thought id share what I see currently with you guys.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn25686702
3
Nonfarm-Payrolls expected effect on S&P500 (SPX) and EUR/USDDuring the last 10 months the correlation of surprises for ADP Nonfarm employment change and Nonfarm payrolls is positive (58%). This means that if we saw a negative ADP nonfarm employment change on Wednesday, we should see a negative nonfarm payroll today. This is however not certain. In fact, the February ADP came out with a -34% negative surprise while the NFP came out with a +108% positive surprise. The historical correlation of the nonfarm payrolls with the same day SPX return is around 6%. This is a non-significant positive correlation. On average, the SPX tend to register a positive return independently from the nonfarm payrolls report. For this reason, even if we are seeing a negative NFP figure today, the market is still probably gonna perform well. The average return of SPX on the NFP publication day is +0.48% (+0.80% if we exclude negative historical returns). Therefore, we expect a positive move with an accumulation in the $4450-$4470 area. Similar to the SPX, the EUR/USD cross tends to react positively to the NFP announcement in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP announcement. In this respect, we expect a positive increase of around +15/+20 pips in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP publication.
TVC:SPXLong
by CucabarraTrading
Special Gold pre-NFP UpdateGoodmorning traders and welcome to the most important day of the rest of the month. It is exactly 1 year ago when gold made its all time high at $2075. The FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets going again, which is not the case thus far. Today might change that: 🔹 If NFP rises above 870k (whispers are talking about 1 million+ jobs), then we will see a strong $100 bearish move on gold before the end of month. 🔹If NFP comes in as expected between 800k and 900k, gold will test the 1790 support zone and we remain in the month long range 1790-1835 until Jackson Hole. 🔹If we see NFP coming in between 600k-800k, gold will surely test the 1830 resistance zone, with an extension to 1850. 🔹Below 600k and it is game over for the gold bears and gold is ready for a rocket to 1900. Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls • Employment component of ISM Non-Manufacturing rises to 53.8 from 49.3 • Employment component of ISM Manufacturing rises to 52.9 from 49.9 • Challenger job cuts drop to 21-year low • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 85.5 • Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hits pandemic high • Continuing Claims fall to pre-pandemic lows Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls • ADP drops to 330,000 from 680,000 • Jobless claims have been missing forecast in the whole month of July and kept rising 🔮 My personal expectation is that NFP will miss the forecast and come in between 750k-850k and we remain ranging between 1790-1835 for the rest of the month. However, we can not ignore the charts and currently we have broken the bearflag and the daily is on the verge of creating a deathcross. All to played out in a few hours. Goodluck, and keep your TP's close but your SL's closer.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
6
Eu Price action analysis coming into the London session Good Morning traders! Hope you are well. Todays forecast will be done on the 1hr timeframe to give more information. We are still in a over uptrend/buying range, with liquidity built above current PA. Over the past week price has retraced down and is now within the discount of the buy range, this offers great opportunity to go long. As always we look left for a range to mitigate. We can see one very obvious range this is marked in green-and its best seen on the 5minute TF. I will be looking for a sweep of the Asian lows and a trend change on the lower TF before entering long but price is shaping up nicely. One thing to note is that NFP is coming up so I will be more cautious getting closer to that time.
Long
by EnvisionEJ
EURUSD before NFP! What to expect?Today we are waiting for one of the most important economic news to come out. This is NFP for July. It is published together with other employment news and it has a big effect on the market. That's why we expect more volatility in the moment of publishing. Technically we're looking at possible rise in price during the news. That doesn't mean you should be buying now. Before and during the news we could actually see a drop in price. However if there is a reversal after the news, then we will be looking for entry. Another confirmation for an upside move will be market breaking above 1,1860. The final target is 1,1940. Do not buy before there is a reversal signal! On a downside impulse and price going below 1,1770 the buying opportunity isn't valid anymore! Follow how this setup will develop in our daily analysis here! Support us by follow, like and leave a comment down below!
Long
by ForexTrendline
26
Non- Farm Payroll Front RunAAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs. ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains extremely negative @ 38%. Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr approaching 1% from YCC. The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing. USDX appears to be supportive ~ 92. A weak US DX will shove assets higher within the Negative DX Trend. A clear structure of the resumption of Down Trend as the Long DX Trade which Specs chased is failing. FX Pairs have clear bias to Higher DX, outsized, but not extreme. Technical Structures across FX remain DX Bearish. Yields are telling us Equities would move higher and yet the expectations for the move higher was not met. _________________________________________________________________ *** Divergences continue to expand to Negative Extremes. NFP will be front run, Claims have been declining. August 6th may provide the Catalyst for Bulls, then again Delta is beginning to show large gains in New Cases among the Vaccinated. The Market remains extreme, Caution warranted. We remain Neutral into NFP.
FRED:NPPTTL
by HK_L61
1
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 4)Hello traders and welcome to the August NFP-week. It promises to be a volatile one. In a word, the Oxford English Dictionary defines "august" as "impressive": as has historically been the month of August for Gold. Last Saturday the Chinese PMI fell below 50.5, the lowest reading since the COVID-outbreak of February 2020. They say China is the factory of the world, and the reading is not a contraction but clearly the 2nd biggest world economy is slowing down. Next to this the US PMI released yesterday missed forecasts and came in at 59.5. The US10Y yields made a fresh move lower this week and closed the day below 1.18 yesterday. These are all worrying signs for gold bears. Currently gold is being twisted and turned, pushed and pulled between two main fundamentals. First of all, the skyrocketing inflation and the slowing down of the economy. On the other hand the risk-on mood in equities is making gold unattractive for investors and traders to enter the goldmarket and some Hawkish FOMC members are spilling the beans for gold by their comments in the media. Everytime gold makes a nice bullish move, some FOMC member comes and spoils the bullish party, which makes investors wary of holding positions. The volumes are declining, positions are being closed (COT-report showed longs & shorts closed last week). Last week we had an impulse breakout move from 1790-1833 thanks to Uncle Powell, but gold lost most of its gains on the last day of the month. This was triggered by end of month outflows and remarks by other FOMC members that tapering should start asap this year. Nevertheless, gold remains supported by 1805 and we closed the week&month above all main H4 moving averages. Bulls entered the ring again from the golden fibo (0.382) on Monday and closed the day above the daily 21 EMA. Also we have a full house golden cross on H1, H4, Daily, Weekly & Monthly timeframe now. All these timeframes are operating in a golden cross formation currently, which strengthens my bullish view. The double top on 1833 is worrying from a technical point of view, and this needs to be taken out by the gold bulls for bigger bulls entering the market. As I mentioned in my previous weekly view, the NFP should be the bullish trigger for gold, until that time we remain rangebound with a bullish undertone and I expect gold to reach 1845 (and if we are lucky 1860) by end of this week. As long as the bull channel holds (which the lower band is around 1799 now) I remain bullish on gold and I will be buying dips. Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
1
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 3)Hi guys, After a well-deserved holiday, a week of acclimatising at home and adapting to current market dynamics, it's time to make some serious bucks from the market. First things first, I want to thank all my followers for following my trading adventure for over a year now. Now onto the meat and potatoes. What is happening in the market? It seems the market is losing it and all correlations that have been in place for months (if not years) are thrown out of the window. Silver up/gold down and vice versa, dollar up/gold up, US10Y down/dollar up. Totally irrational behaviour and when this happens, you know shit is about to hit the fan. This should not surprise anyone, because everything looks like a big bubble that is about to burst. The housing market, commodity prices, equities and other asset classes are trading at extremely high levels which have not seen before. Many respected analysts such as Jeremy Grantham (who has a proven trackrecord on bubble recognition) have voiced their deepest concerns about current market conditions and dynamics. With annualized monthly inflation running as high as 11%, real growth and the jobmarket not looking to improve, the stagflation ghost of the 1970-1980's is just around the corner. Stagflation is the magic word that will make gold propel to higher grounds and it is only since a week or two that analysts dare to pronounce the word in the respected media outlets. But before we see strong bullish PA on gold, we still have some time to kill. FOMC is planned on Wednesday and this is a key risk event for the market and gold in particular. After the big sell-off of June, where gold tumled more than $150, Powell turned dovish in front of the Senate and reiterated that it is too soon to raise interest rates and start tapering. I do not expect Powell to turn away from the script or give a timeline next Wednesday on tapering, but I do expect we will see a $20-$30 sell-off towards $1780-$1785, providing gold bulls with a fresh new entry for $1900+. August will be a hot summer month for precious metals in the lead-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium that is planned in the last week of August, and I am expecting NFP being the trigger for the bull rally. It is yet to be seen what will happen in Q4, but I am expecting some profit taking towards the yearly Christmas rally in December where I expect gold to make new all time highs in Q1 2022. I can not repeat enough that current market conditions and dynamics are extremely bullish for gold and buying on dips is the way to go, don't get noised out by the small bearish candles you see. You do not want to be on the wrong side when gold starts another $200 bull rally. COT-report is bullish and large speculators are losing their shorts and adding buys for 4 weeks in a row. Good luck and may the blue pips be on your side. Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
4
Market inflection PointM2 Money supply / DJI Nearing an area of support a fall through of the support line and we could see selling exhaustion that would cause the DJI to melt up. Where a boost in buying would see the DJI melt down. What could cause M2 to either be peddle to the medal or taking the foot off the gas.? Inflation, lets see how the fed can handle inflation. We have already had statements from non voting fed member one even saying " America can not afford another housing boom bust cycle." Well big boy you got the printer fire that thing up. New dollars hit the market rates go lower and boom, they got the housing market pumping all time highs. Conversely we could see the markets correct by the fed either pull back on the money printing and pausing we could see the M2/DJI rise.
FRED:WM2NSLong
by RobinhoodFX
XAUUSD (GOLD), Potential Big Drop from NFPMoments away from NFP. Economists expect the data to show that the economy added more than 575,000 jobs in March as the country continued to open. This will be a better figure than the 465,000 jobs that were created in February On the technical side of things, we can see that price is approaching a key resistance near 1790$ and is looking to be losing its bull momentum. We may see a strong wick towards the resistance and psychological level at 1800$ and then a slide towards next major support at 1730$ Should price form a break above 1800, then the selling setup is no longer valid
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by IAmDavidX
6
Solana - New TA Update!🎢Here we have Solana. Two price forecasts have been identified with the green arrows on the chart. 20 USD represents a strong support level with long wicks to the downside. Let's see where price heads! Solana is a crypto startup that builds and develops crypto apps for decentralized apps and marketplaces. The startup was founded in 2018 and is based in San Francisco, California. In other news, we have NFP release today. Be careful trading the Forex market.
Long
by Jal121