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EURGBP TRADE IDEA FOR THE WEEKI would like to share my trade idea for EURGBP for the rest of the week. This is just an analysis on what I am currently seeing, since NFP week is coming up we may see consolidated markets and then some explosive movements. For right now I am bearish on EURGBP along with being bearish on the dollar but I don't really trade NFP weeks I like to mostly practice. Like how I did last week for FOMC week just have an outlook of what can happen if I am correct then great if not great I will learn from my mistakes. My annotations should explain the trade idea I didn't really talk about it here because of that. I'll send another trade idea Tuesday before the London session. Till then enjoy this idea and happy trading.
by JohnnWick
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.07.02📌 The affinity between 'resistance' and 'overextension' Light and summery flows continue with GBP in purely technical moves. Very little to update on the fundamental here; a weak macro and political picture persists as activity remains incredibly low in the absence of confidence. There’s a lot of support stacked on the 0.90 🔑 pivot in EURGBP and 1.252x in GBPUSD. Reassessment only required with a weekly closing below/above. => Restraint in the technical sense can be conceived with the presence of resistance; but real total defence which reigns over the whole G10 board and which gives FX markets breathing difficulties, is only possible when risk is in the air. Parking in USD will remain attractive as long as the VIX remains elevated. => From a risk perspective, to what extent, we may now ask, does one need to give their stop breathing room? It is not enough to state the highs will hold as NFP can easily capture the stops and will be highly unpleasant to defend. This means we need to give some room up towards 1.258x as we will have the 1.25 quarters and halves to protect. ⚡️ US DATA PREVIEW: Primary Dealer Nonfarm Payroll estimates - RBC 8.0mn - Natwest 7.2mn - Citi 5.5mn - Morgan Stanley 5.285mn - BNP Paribas 4.5mn - Goldman Sachs 4.25mn - HSBC 4.0mn - Scotiabank 4.0mn - TD 4.0mn - SocGen 3.9mn - BMO 3.5mn - Wells Fargo 3.3mn - Credit Suisse 3.0mn - JPMorgan 3.0mn - BAML 2.8mn - Daiwa 2.5mn - Deutsche 2.5mn - Mizuho 2.5mn - Barclays 2.0mn - Jefferies 1.95mn - Nomura 1.5mn - UBS 1.5mn - Dealer Median: 3.4mn With this in mind, 3m is the headline to track.... undershoots will be positive for USD via risk whereas inline or overshoots will trigger profit taking from the recent squeeze. The ST flows in a technical sense are no less imaginative than the MT and LT swing we traded earlier in the year. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
16
United States Non-Farm Payroll posts 4.8 Million jobs in JuneUnited States Non-Farm Payroll posts 4.8 Million jobs in June, beating analysts’ expectations of a 3 million gain. The unemployment rate also fell to 11.1% in June, forecasted at 12.5%. However, permanent job losses spike 2.1 million of the 4.8 million new jobs were created in the leisure and hospitality sector. However, permanent job losses jumped to 588,000 to 2.8 Million permanent job losses. This is the second-worst month in 20 years for permanent job losses, losing to January 2009 during the Global Financial Crisis. This is on the back of the United States, topping 2.74 million total Coronavirus cases. Daily new cases increased to 52,600 from 47,000 yesterday. However, President Donald Trump stated that the employment numbers prove that the economy is “roaring back.” Donald Trump predicts a resurgence before the November election, with no reference to the state of the Coronavirus in the United States. The NASDAQ reached a record high, ending at 10,367, a 0.54% gain for the day. Other major indices edge higher, with the SP500 and the Dow Jones posting 0.12% and 0.41% gains, respectively. Interestingly to note, Gold also ended higher with futures ending at $1,788. This may be attributable to investors and traders understanding that the Coronavirus risks, especially in the United States, are still a big threat to the recovery of the economy. This is alongside major fiscal and monetary policies that have helped provide liquidity and elevating equity prices. Equity markets post record highs and macro-environment tenses Equity markets, specifically in the United States, have been resilient during an extreme macro environment. Inequality protests dividing the nation, political tensions rising domestically and internationally with the election approaching amongst China’s power grab all amidst a pandemic which caused the greatest jobs lost in United States history. With non-farm payroll posting better than expected results over the past two months, a sense of progression in the road of recovery may cloud investors and trader’s judgment. Furthermore, with the FED providing virtually unlimited support, it would be reasonable to assume that participation in this market would be met with accommodative conditions. However, the Coronavirus is still preventing many states from opening. New York is still now allowing in-person dining –from a state that has flattened the Coronavirus curve through the relatively strict lock down. Texas just imposed a mandatory face mask requirement. Florida records its highest death rate. Permanent jobs lost in the United States are still increasing. Investors and traders need to tread carefully before investing their hard-earned dollars into these propped-up markets. Trade safe.
TVC:IXIC
by BlackBull_Markets
The Best Way to Trade Nonfarm Payrolls!The unprecedented world wide Coronavirus pandemic has put the markets on edge and set expectations really low for virtually all financial data points. Considering this, Non Farm Payrolls came in very strong, or at least not as bad as expected. Stocks reacted accordingly, and this tutorial is about how stocks react to strong numbers. This occurs in three phases: Phase 1: Initial reaction - In the event of a number that the markets perceive as 'strong', stocks will rally accordingly. This usually continues until they hit a Fibonacci level or other technical level, or traders take profits. Phase 2: Retracement/Squeeze - The rally discussed above usually will continue to around 9:00am or so. Don't forget that NFP comes out at 8:30am which is before the North American open. At this point, futures traders have taken profit, and stock traders are gearing up for the open. Watch the Kovach OBV to make sure that this retracement is not a reversal! Phase 3: Continuation at open - At 9:30am, the US markets open, and stock traders clamour into trades pushing the markets up again. Stocks could retrace later on in the day, or set the stage for strong growth in the subsequent week. Hopefully this tutorial can help you set up for some good trades if you see this behavior! If you want to learn more, check us out at Ghostsquawk!
FX:SPX500Education
by quantguy
Gold NFP forecastIn the previous analysis, It was an excellent trade and reached the target zone (Please click the arrow on the chart to see the analysis). Yesterday in the US session, we tried to BUY at 1775 but got stopped out at 1774 when US PMI data released. Then the chart showed a nice rejection candle after FOMC at 1759. My clients bought at 1762-65, and it reached some of our targets already. Currently, it's still in consolidation inside 1765-1775, we all waiting for NFP, earnings, Jobless rate, and Jobless claims data. Based on the price action, I reckon if it can break out and close above 1775, XAU will keep climbing to 1783, and the final target will be at 1795. But if it breakout 1765 and can breakout and close below the trendline, I reckon XAU will fall to 1740. I rarely post an analysis that calls both sides of the possibilities, but right now, I'm neutral, it will depend on the US data, and we will react accordingly. NFP is going to be wild, please trade safely!
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by GoldCartel
7
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.07.02📍 NZDUSD : NFP Positional Play This is an example of an erroneous defence. In similar style to that of the GBPUSD position, the highs 0.652x can be defended, since it unlocks an impulsive position which is somewhat cramped via RBNZ adding more free money to the pot. Buyers attempt at breaching the highs should be opposed, we have risk in play via Covid and Brexit, not to mention bankruptcies around the globe skyrocketing. Dark clouds on the horizon despite how the politicians attempt to sell re-openings as 'independence'. NZD and High beta FX will struggle to rally as long as the market is still concerned about further lockdowns in Australia as NZ will follow their lead. Tracking the same “lines in the sand” with 0.677x AUDUSD and 0.637x NZDUSD. ⚡️ US DATA PREVIEW: Primary Dealer Nonfarm Payroll estimates - RBC 8.0mn - Natwest 7.2mn - Citi 5.5mn - Morgan Stanley 5.285mn - BNP Paribas 4.5mn - Goldman Sachs 4.25mn - HSBC 4.0mn - Scotiabank 4.0mn - TD 4.0mn - SocGen 3.9mn - BMO 3.5mn - Wells Fargo 3.3mn - Credit Suisse 3.0mn - JPMorgan 3.0mn - BAML 2.8mn - Daiwa 2.5mn - Deutsche 2.5mn - Mizuho 2.5mn - Barclays 2.0mn - Jefferies 1.95mn - Nomura 1.5mn - UBS 1.5mn - Dealer Median: 3.4mn => So if we can sum up by saying, RBNZ is preventing NZD of moving higher and is of greatest important when considering a macro positional flow. On the other hand, USD seems more appropriate as a place to park until the storm passes. What we are talking about is outguessing extreme risk for the long weekend with the NFP knee-jerk flow. A very advanced and extremely bold call. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
9
Dax daily: 02 Jul 2020Yesterday's session started with the gap closure but then buyers were short of breath. Following European PMI reports, Dax sold-off below 12 151. The price reversed back as it seems there is no volume of orders on lower levels and the area around 12 151 serves as the significant S/R boundary of the current range. Dax closed the day at break-even. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 14:30 CEST - US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Wages Today's session hypothesis Today's session started with a faster tempo, dominated by bullish traders who head up to retest yesterday's high. After yesterday's bounce off 12 151 and today's morning momentum, it seems buyers might find their strength and momentum and attempt to get away from the consolidation range, heading towards 12 494 which is now the area of our focus. Be careful as we have the NFP news release from the US as the Independence day is celebrated tomorrow and the release shifted to Thursday this time. Volatility expected.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
DXY to test 99.19 (last dance) 40/60% on this make up. 40% of me thinks we test 99,19 with a last dance type of rally 60% of me thinks we are f*cked in the US and the recession is OTW by July 4, 2020. we can win on both sides however with a 99.19 test THEN the plummet. DXY has been bought by all 4 session today as the last 2 4HR candles end bullish . NFP is tomorrow as well to make matters sticky. Tomorrow is first day EU banks will be open in since Friday of May 29. Safe trading!
TVC:DXY
by chestephens1
GOLD TRADES FLAT, MARKETS EYE US NFP DATAGOLD TRADES FLAT, MARKETS EYE US NFP DATA . Gold showed minor recovery till $1721.85 on a weak US dollar. But strength in the global stock market is putting pressure at higher levels. The ECB has raised its bond-buying program by 600 billion Euros to improve growth. DXY hits- 2-1/2 month low and any break below 96.40 (200-W MA) confirms further weakness. . The number of people filed for unemployment benefits rose to 1.87 million last week, slightly worse than the forecast of 1.80 million. Markets eye US NFP data for further direction. . US Dollar Index – Bearish (positive for Gold) S&P500- Bullish (negative for gold) US Bond yield- strong (negative for gold) . Technicals: . The yellow metal has declined more than $10 from high $1721.75. Any violation below $1690 will drag the yellow metal down till $1670/$1660 likely. . The immediate resistance is around $1723 (200-H MA), any indicative break beyond targets $1745/$1755/1765. Significant trend continuation can be seen only if it surges past $1765, a jump till $1800 likely. . It is good to sell on rallies around $1715-16 SL around $1726 for the TP at $1660.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by By_Abby
2