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AUD/USD: One of better options for US dollar bearsThe AUD/USD is the one to watch in the event we see a negative dollar reaction to today's US jobs report, which is due for release shortly. A headline print of 191K is expected, but watch out for revisions to prior months' data too. AUD/USD's recent performance points higher The AUD/USD has been performing well due to strong Australian inflation and a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It reached its highest level since January due to weaker-than-expected US data this week, which fueled speculation about a potential Fed rate cut in September. Boost from Recent Data: - Retail Sales: Increased by 0.6% month-over-month (m/m), surpassing the expected 0.3%. - Building Approvals: Rose by 5.5% m/m, beating the forecasted 1.5%. Inflation and Rate Hikes: - Australia's latest inflation report showed a significant rise to 4.0% year-over-year (y/y), higher than the expected 3.8% and April's 3.6%. - This has led investors to speculating over a 50% chance of another rate hike by the RBA, while expectations for a US rate cut are increasing. AUD/USD Technical Analysis: - The AUD/USD had been consolidating in a bullish continuation pattern near its highs. - It recently broke out of this to reach its best level since January. If this breakout holds after NFP then a potential rise towards bigger resistance in the 0.6850-0.6900 range could get underway - The line in the sand for me is at 0.6620, break below would be a bearish technical development Trading Outlook: - The combination of strong fundamentals and positive technical signals makes AUD/USD an attractive pair to trade on the long side, especially if US data continues to weaken. - This pair is potentially a better long candidate compared to others like EUR/USD, which has election risks, or JPY/USD (I know, I know, it is USD/JPY), which faces potential government intervention. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom
Pre NFP Analysis5th July (NFP day) DXY: Consolidating on 105 support, If NFP is weaker, could trade down to 104.65. Stronger NFP, DXY needs to break 105.40 before considered bullish NZDUSD: Buy 0.6150 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.67 SL 20 TP 75 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Buy 161.15 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2790 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.0850 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY weakness) USDCHF: Sell 0.8960 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3625 SL 25 TP 75 (CAD weakness, DXY strength) Gold: Break above 2370 could trade up to 2390 (DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
USD/JPY dips after US services data stumblesThe Japanese yen has rebounded on Thursday and is trading at 161.01, down 0.43% on the day. The yen has been on a slide over the past four weeks and has declined by 3.9% during that time. On Wednesday, the yen fell as low as 161.95, its lowest level since 1986. US markets are closed today for the Fourth of July holiday. The US ISM Services PMI disappointed on Wednesday, dropping to 48.8 in June. This was well below the May reading of 53.8 and the market estimate of 52.6 and marked the weakest reading since May 2020. The 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion. The Federal Reserve won’t mind the weak services data as its looks for signs of a slowdown before it lowers interest rates. The employment component of the Services PMI eased to 46.1 from 47.1 and the US market will be in the spotlight on Friday with the release of nonfarm payrolls for June. The markets are bracing for a gain of 190 thousand, compared to the surprisingly strong gain of 272 thousand in May. If nonfarm payrolls fall below the 200 thousand level, it will lend strong support for a rate cut in September, which currently has a 66% probability, according to the CME’s FedWatch. Japan’s Household Spending reeled off 13 straight declines before ending the streak with a gain of 0.5% m/m for April. The May report will be released early Friday and a weak gain of 0.1% is expected. Japanese consumers have been squeezed by high prices and weak consumer consumption is hampering sustained economic growth, which the Bank of Japan wants to see before it tightens monetary policy. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has pushed below the support at 1.6148 and is testing support at 161.00 There is resistance at 162.18 and 162.66
by OANDA
1
Brace for NFP, ECB Forum, and two major elections This week is set to be a pivotal one for global markets, with significant economic and political events on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, the spotlight will be on nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week, with the economy expected to have added 180,000 jobs in June. This would mark a slowdown from the 272,000 jobs added in May and signal a cooling of the labor market. Across the Atlantic, political developments in France and the United Kingdom are likely to dominate market movements. France's Parliamentary Elections: France held the first round of its parliamentary elections on Sunday. The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has surged to first place, securing 33.5% of votes according to recent polls. The second round of voting is scheduled for July 7. The dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month has already caused volatility in French stocks. However, some see this as a buying opportunity. Eden Bradfield of BlackBull Research commented, "Our preference list includes Kering, LVMH, Richemont, Brunello, and Hermes at the right price." Adding to the busy week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will host its annual forum in Sintra from Monday to Wednesday. The event will gather central bank governors, including Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Roberto Campos Neto of the Brazilian Central Bank, Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England, and Christine Lagarde of the ECB. On the economic front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for the Eurozone and Germany are due this week. These reports are anticipated to show a slight easing in inflation, which will be closely monitored by investors and policymakers alike. UK General Elections: In the United Kingdom, a major political shift is anticipated on July 4. Polls suggest a landslide victory for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and a major defeat for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
by BlackBull_Markets
NFP looks bearishIt looks like we have a large diametric that we are now in wave E of. Wave E must have at least time to the vertical line on the chart. Keeping the red range is expected to complete wave E. The targets are clear on the chart. Closing a daily candle above the invalidation level will violate the analysis For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
THE KOG REPORT - NFP THE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Please note, this NFP looks like it’s going to slip a lot of traders up, so please be careful if you’re going to trade it, otherwise, like us, stay out of the market and come back to it on Monday where we will find better, cleaner opportunities. We’ve done well in Camelot, we’re not going to risk anything on this NFP, not even a 0.01lot. So, we have an early session move downside into the support region 2330-35 with extension into the 2325 price point, which if held here could give us bounce up into the order region above 2345-50 which is where ideally we will want to see the price pre-event. We’ve plotted the extreme levels on the chart and the potential move, the extreme support level sitting at 2305-10 which, if they do take the price down into, we feel the RIP upside will come from to at least the 2330 price point. We would say below the 2355-60 region we’re looking lower, and that price point will need to hold for us to see a continuation of the move. The structure needs to form however! On the flip, breaking above the 2355 region we could see this attempt the 2400-2405 price point before we even think about shorting it. It’s one or the other for us, it either comes down into extreme level and we’ll look for a set up after the event, or, it goes up into extreme level and we’ll look for a set up. In the middle, we’re not interested in trying to catch the moves today. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
9
XAU/USD : First Sell , Then BUY ! NFP's effect on price ! (READ)By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price finally filled its old FVG and entered the $2386 supply zone, followed by a sharp decline. The price corrected over 500 pips down to $2332! Note that this significant drop in gold created a large FVG. If today's actual NFP rate is announced to be lower than the predicted rate, it will weaken the dollar index and cause gold to rise, which in turn could fill this new FVG. Therefore, after an initial drop, we can expect a price increase. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
12
Ethereum & Bitcoin - NFP Market Thought With the NFP data coming in hot for the USD, which is unfavorable for all assets trading against it, we are closely monitoring both Bitcoin and Ethereum. We anticipate a sweep of the lows to clear out some liquidity before the uptrend continues. For Bitcoin, we believe the current weekly VWAP or the current weekly VAL, supported by the pwVAH, should hold BTC. There might be a liquidation around 70k after a drop followed by a V-shaped recovery. Regarding Ethereum, we've been ranging since the start of June between the March VAH and the pmVAH. Given the sharp rise in the last week, it seems likely we'll retest the March VWAP or even the cluster around 3.4k, which we consider the "worst-case" scenario in the near term. To turn bullish, we need to reclaim the March VAH and hold it as support. If this happens, ETH and altcoins should have the momentum to surge, pushing ETH to 4k relatively quickly.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by stromm_by_wmc
1
GOLD: Day 3 breakout traders long in the market, NFP weekHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅ day 2 cycle 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day First Green Day 3 Days Long Breakout 3 Days Short Breakout Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump ✅ Dump&Pump Frontside Backside ✅ 4. THESIS: Long: secondary, this market can keep going lower until news release in NY session, for a NYO or third hour reversal Short: primary, looking for a pump back up into the yesterday LOD at least, taking a potential market continuation going to stop the LOW, where traders long are in profit since monday. Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by GianniPichichero
6
OIL: Day 3 breakout trades long in the market, NFP week!Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅ no daily cycle 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day First Green Day 3 Days Long Breakout ✅ 3 Days Short Breakout Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump Dump&Pump ✅ Frontside Backside ✅ 4. THESIS: Long: primary, day 3 long in the market, OIL looks like coiling for an explosive move. After NFP I will looking for a buy low dump and pump back either the HOW, or the breakout NY session of monday (see the green line) Short: secondary, not really interested in short this market, unless a scalp third hour NY session HOD to LOD Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by GianniPichichero
2
USNAS100 (Breakout Line, NFP, Jobs data )Futures Trade Cautiously Ahead of Jobs Data U.S. stock index futures showed minimal movement on Friday as investors awaited a crucial employment report. This report is expected to confirm increasing slack in the U.S. labor market, potentially providing the Federal Reserve with more flexibility to cut interest rates later this year. Technical Analysis the price will move between 19100 and 18940 till breaking, stability above 19100 means the NFP is good and will continue the bullish trend to get 19250 and 19450 otherwise, stability under 18940 means will drop to 18820 Bullish Scenario: For the bullish trend to continue, the price needs to break above 19,100, with potential targets of 19,250 and 19,450. Bearish Scenario: Stabilization below 19,100 would indicate a move towards 18,940. A further break below 18,940, confirmed by closing at least a 1-hour candle, would signal a downtrend towards 18,800. Pivot Line: 19100 Resistance Levels: 19200, 19300, 19450 Support Levels: 18940, 18820, 18710 Today's range is expected to be between the support at 18820 and the resistance at 19450. previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USD
by SroshMayi
SPx (Correction after rally or finished) Technical Analysis of SPx the price will move under the NFP and the Unemployment rate pressure, so the movement will be huge for the indices. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish trend to emerge, the price must stabilize above 5260, potentially pushing up to 5302. If the price surpasses this level, it may indicate the start of a new bullish trend of about 5347. but right now as long as the price trades above 5347 means will try to touch 5378 as well. Bearish Scenario: if the price breaks 5347 means will drop to touch 5320 and then downward should break the support zone which is 5301 to get 5259 Pivot Line: 5347 Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423 Support Levels: 5320, 5302, 5260 Today’s expected trading range is between the support at 5301 and the resistance at 5423. Market Concentration Hits Record Levels with Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL For the first time since at least 2000, three U.S. stocks—Microsoft Corp., Nvidia Corp., and Apple Inc.—now account for over 20% of the S&P 500's total value, according to Dow Jones Market Data. This means that these three companies alone are worth more than hundreds of other constituents combined, as highlighted by data from Bespoke Investment Group. Historically, increasing concentration in a few large-cap stocks has often coincided with stronger overall returns for the S&P 500. However, the rapid rise in the values of these tech giants is causing some concern among investors. Even those who have been bullish are starting to feel uneasy about the growing dominance of these few stocks within the index.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
USD/JPY eyes household spendingThe Japanese yen is steady on Thursday after showing sharp swings throughout the week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.27, up 0.10% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s consumers have been holding tight on the purse strings as inflation remains high and economic conditions remain gloomy. In March, household spending declined to 1.2% m/m, down from 1.4% in February. The downswing is expected to continue, with a market estimate of just 0.2% for April. Japan releases GDP on Monday and the markets are bracing for some bad news. Japan’s economy is expected to have contracted in the first quarter, with a market estimate of -0.5% q/q, after no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Yearly, the economy is expected to have contracted by 2.0%, after a small gain of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Private sector demand has fallen and exports are also down. A weak GDP release could delay any plans at the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. The BoJ meets on June 14th and has hinted that it will take steps on the path towards normalization. The Japanese yen remains at low levels and could lose more ground if the BoJ doesn’t change any policy settings at the meeting. The US wraps up the week with nonfarm payrolls on Friday and the report is expected to show that the US labor market is slowly cooling off. In April, nonfarm payrolls fell to 175,000 down sharply from 330,000 in March. This marked the weakest job growth in six months. Little change is expected in the May report, with a market estimate of 185,000. USD/JPY tested support at 155.75 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.01 156.86 and 157.60 are the next support levels
by OANDA
ECB Rate Cut Looms: EUR/USD Set to Slide?Given the increasing likelihood that the ECB will cut rates before the Fed, further EUR/USD depreciation could be anticipated in the coming days/ weeks. A move below the 100-day moving average would have traders looking toward the 200-day moving average of 1.0853. However, weaker jobs data from the US this week is tempering this expectation, which means some upside targets can be charted still. If bulls maintain control, EUR/USD may test the June high of 1.0916, followed by the three peaks of March, before reaching the crucial 1.1000 level. The JOLTs job openings report showed a decline of 296,000 from the previous month, dropping to 8.059 million in April 2024. This is the lowest level since February 2021 and below the market consensus of 8.34 million. The ADP Employment Change report revealed that private US hiring in May increased by 152,000, falling short of the estimates of 175,000 and below April’s figure of 188,000. Next up is the NonFarm Payrolls report on Friday. For the exact date and time, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts directly to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance.
by BlackBull_Markets
Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP It's US jobs week. Which gives us at least three trading opportunities, scattered out nicely over the whole week. First is the JOLTs Job Openings report. Second is the ADP Employment Change report. Finally, we have the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Let's look at what happened last month: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs. Economists forecast by TradingEconomics had estimated 240,000 jobs. Another huge miss in the NFP report this month could weaken the dollar. The market seems poised to interpret any indication as a signal that the Federal Reserve might cut rates sooner than anticipated. And even with a weaker-than-expected NFP, the market might just be looking at the headline. JPMorgan Chase highlighted during last month's report that "other employment indicators suggest there is no imminent weakening in the labor market." Additionally, these figures are preliminary and often revised in subsequent weeks. For instance, March’s nonfarm payroll gains were revised up to 315,000 from 300,000.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
June 03, DXY & GBPUSD: Trading Insights for the Week Ahead!Greetings, Traders! Brief Description🖊️: We are in the first week of June, a period marked by high-impact news, including the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. In this video, I will provide an in-depth analysis of the DXY and GBPUSD pairs, offering valuable insights for the upcoming week in trading. Things We Will Cover👀: Lecture on Draw On Liquidity🧠: Understanding how to analyze the market objectively. Studying key concepts such as Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), order blocks, mitigation blocks, breakers, and more. Market Analysis📉📈: DXY and GBPUSD: Detailed analysis of these pairs to uncover potential trading opportunities for the week ahead. Draw On Liquidity: Understanding what the draw on liquidity is for this week and how it impacts our trading strategies. What's Important Now❗ Stay tuned to gain a comprehensive understanding of market analysis and to identify profitable trading opportunities in the upcoming week. Best Regards, The_Architect
by The_Archi-tect
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials. Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations. Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs. Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
by BlackBull_Markets
NFP/USDT READY FOR AN ATH!!Hey everyone! If you enjoy this content, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis. NFP looks good here. NFP recently broke out of a falling wedge pattern. This could be a sign of a trend reversal and potential bullish momentum. Buy some here and add more in the dip. Entry range:- $0.46-$0.50 Targets:- $0.62/$0.84/$0.98/$1.16 SL:- $0.40 Let's Discuss! What are your thoughts on NFP's current price action? Do you see a bullish pattern? Share your analysis in the comments below!
Long
by CoreCrypto1