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Decision Time for Kiwi BullsThe NZD/USD has been bullish since Monday’s strong rally was fueled by talk of fiscal stimulus to boost the New Zealand economy. The Kiwi was also boosted after an unexpected rebound in Chinese manufacturing raised hopes of a brighter outlook for the world economy. And now NZD is the strongest major of the week. Technically, NZD/USD’s 4-hour chart is reporting a bearish divergence of RSI. In addition the price is testing 61.8% Fibo retracement on the fall from 0.6790 to 0.6204 at 0.6566. The direction of the pair is likely to be determined by trader reaction to that level. In case of upside break we can see a test of the August top at 0.6588. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the first target coming in at 0.6666 (78,6% Fibo level). Take in mind that later today is US NFP figure. And a weaker U.S. Dollar (softer report) could also underpinning the Kiwi as well as steady demand for higher-yielding currencies. On opposite direction, a return again inside of the bullish channel and bellow 200-day SMA will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is at 0.6541.
by ForexTrendline
GOLD vs SILVER vs GOLD/SILVER RATIOHi Guys, just some infos. Following surprising NFP datas today, silver has fallen below B whilst Gold/Silver ratio has run above. Gold instead remains above B. Does it mean that Gold will soon follow Silver? I don't know...I am asking. Lol Here a link to the explanation provided by Investopedia in respect of the Gold/Silver Ratio: www.investopedia.com And here an idea posted some time ago with some snapshots: For additional infos about Gold please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
TVC:SILVER
by cozzamara
1
Getting ready for the NFP, OPEC & trading on the newsIt is worth noting statistics from the Eurozone that was published on Thursday. On the one hand, as we predicted, Eurozone GDP came out better than expected (+ 0.2% q / q with a forecast + 0.1% q / q). On the other hand, retail sales failed (-0.6% m / m with a forecast -0.5% m / m), and industrial orders in Germany unexpectedly declined (-0.4% m / m with a forecast + 0.4% m / m). However, this did not prevent the euro from strengthening yesterday. Friday promises to be an exceptionally busy day for financial markets. First, official statistics on the US labour market will be published. Secondly, the results of an expanded OPEC meeting will be summarized. Also, we are waiting for data on the labour market of Canada. Let's start with an indicator that could potentially trigger volatility in the financial markets. We are talking about NFP. The forecasts, in our opinion, are too optimistic. Although + 180K jobs - almost the average figure of the indicator for 2019, current trends in the US economy show that + 180K is a bit overstated. The fact is that the non-farm payrolls: 180K+ is obliged to the start of the year when in January and February the indicator exceeded + 300K. But such figures have not been shown for a long time so without these two periods, the average in 2019 is less than 150K. 150K seems to us much closer to current realities, and in light of the weak employment rate from ADP published on Wednesday (+67 thousand jobs with a forecast +135 thousand), a figure below + 100K will not surprise us. So our recommendation for the dollar (in the light of our expectations from the NFP) is to sell the dollar. Note that the indicator's output between + 120K - + 180K may be completely ignored by the markets. Concerns about the demarche of Saudi Arabia at the OPEC meeting become irrelevant. On the contrary, there is increasing talk throughout the markets about a possible increase in the volume of reduction in oil production under OPEC + from the current 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd. However, even if such a decision is made in the oil market, nothing will change - OPEC countries are now extracting less than is stipulated by the agreements. Our position on oil is unchanged so far - oil growth is a great opportunity for asset sales. Today promises to be over-volatile for the USDCAD due to the simultaneous publication of labour market data from both the United States and Canada. Given the uncertainty related to the data, our recommendation for working with a pair today is to trade pending orders. Before the data is released, we place pending orders of the buy stop and sell stop type at 20-30 pips from the current price at that time. And then we just wait. That will almost certainly provoke the formation of a strong unidirectional movement, you can earn on.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
NFP Prewiew and EUR/USDUS Non-Farm Payrolls report will be the major focus today. Most of the economists are expecting US NFP to post reading in between 183-200K in November. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain between 3.5-3.6% for the month. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to pick up to 0.3% mom. Still, there are signs that the jobs report could disappoint. Firstly, the ADP jobs data released on Wednesday showed that only 67K private payrolls were added. Secondly, the four-week average claims increased to 217K from 215K. Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board declined for 4th straight months while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing data continued to decline. If job growth falls short of expectations and wage growth fails to improve like economists anticipated, USD/JPY could fall toward 108 and EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.1150/80. You can looking also for bullish trades in NZD/USD, which recently saw a major breakout to 4-month highs and may have further to run from here. In the event the jobs and the wage data beat expectations, then we would favor looking for short-term bullish trades in USD/JPY, which remains in a near-term uptrend. Technically, EUR/USD is along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart. The RSI indicator is slightly below the overbought level of 70. We’re looking for the market to get a little overbought on a short-term time frame and to start shorting again for a very small trade. Until 1.1066 minor support is intact, further rise is still in favor. Corrective decline form 1.1179 could have completed at 1.0981. Rise from there would target a test on 1.1179 first. Break above that level will resume whole rally form 1.0879. However, a clear break of 1.1066 (daily 100 SMA) will turn bias back to the downside for testing 1.0981 instead. You can share in the comments bellow what's your trading strategy for today.
by ForexTrendline
USDJPY Will fade post NFP spike ( if seen ).... looking to sell Hello, incredibly resistant pair when it comes to the recent "turbulence" in regards to the US China trade war or the possible impeachment of President Trump One of the reason of such behavior could be differences in interest rate (carry trade) ... However, if somewhere to look for short on USD is right here but still only after a possible spike as reaction to NFP Short between 109.35 / 60 Stop above 109.70 First target 108.30 / 20 Good luck
Short
by ForexClub_pl
OPEC meeting, Bank of Canada decision and Eurozone GDPWe start with macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the extremely weak employment rate from ADP: +67 thousand jobs with a forecast of +135 thousand. So, buyers of the dollar should at least focus, because if similar statistics come out on Friday on the NFP, the dollar may well be sold out. Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone came out surprisingly good, which intensified the talks that the European economy was beginning to recover. The pound also got its reason for growth, as the UK business activity index also exceeded forecasts. Although we note that it was still below 50. It is rather symptomatic that the pound continues to grow without waiting for the election results. The markets decided that Brexit’s fate is predetermined (there will be no way out without a deal), but the pound is still very cheap, you need to buy it before it’s too late. We have long been bulls as for pound, so nothing surprising happens to us. We only note that a daily close above 1.30 is a strong bullish signal. And the pound may grow more than one hundred pips. So we are looking for points for his purchases. The Bank of Canada did not change the rate yesterday but was quite optimistic in its comments, which contributed to the growth of the Canadian dollar. So those readers who were following our recommendations could put in their piggy bank a good profit. Despite the extremely frightening information at the beginning of the week, the negotiation process between the US and China continues. And according to its participants, by December 15, the first phase should be completed. As for today the macroeconomic statistics, the news of the day will be the publication of Eurozone GDP. The fact may likely be higher than forecasts. This means that the euro may well strengthen up to 1.1160 paired with the dollar. Well, the main event of the week, at least for the oil market, will be the beginning of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The most likely scenario is an attempt to leave everything as it is. That is, they will adhere to the current line of behaviour (an agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million b / d). For oil, this decision, by and large, does not change anything in terms of fundamental alignment. But any agreements to increase the limits will play into the hands of buyers and vice versa. Refusal of the deal in any form will be a strong hit to oil and activates its sellers.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Getting ready for the Bank of Canada decisionAs we announced, the demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly this week, which provoked both an increase in gold quotes and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. And if the reason for this was an increase in tariffs on imports to the United States of aluminium and steel from Argentina and Brazil on Monday, then on Tuesday Trump intimidated to introduce an additional 15% of tariffs on Chinese imports in the amount of $ 160 billion on December 15. At the same time, he added that he was not in a hurry and the best time to conclude a trade deal was generally after the 2020 elections. Of course, Trump should not be taken seriously, such his comments are a clear attempt to force China to be more accommodating in the negotiations. Nevertheless, the reaction of investors can be understood. Given that gold may easily grow (50-70 dollars per ounce), it is likely that yesterday's growth is only the beginning. So we continue to recommend looking for points of purchase for safe-haven assets. It is worth noting the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the rate unchanged, which is generally a positive sign for the Australian dollar. Although its growth potential so far seems limited, it could still grow (50-70 pips), especially against the background of a weak dollar. US employment data from ADP traditionally published on the eve of official statistics is what we are waiting for. Although the level of correlation between ADP and NFP data is insignificant, strong deviations of the data from forecasts may well be flustrating to the markets. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters. We expect the current status quo to be saved. But a change in the nature of the rhetoric of the Central Bank may well provoke a jump in volatility. Recall that our position on the Canadian dollar is to buy. That is, selling a USDCAD above 1.33 is, in our opinion, a great trading idea. The oil market is getting ready for the OPEC meeting. Globally, we remain supporters of oil sales. But for now, until the end of the week we take a break - the meeting may well surprise, but betting on red or black is not our approach, we prefer to work with facts.
Short
by Trade24Fx
AUDUSD based on no QE See annotations, and linked idea below. The QE announcement will have an effect on the longer term value of the pair; we will outline the possible effect on both scenarios. We believe QE will not go ahead any time soon, if it does it will be announced mid next year (June) – even though very unlikely. However, we can expect a gradual decline in interest rates (continued trend since 2011) with the attempt to boost economic growth. Even with low interest at 0.75% GDP targets have not been met. Therefore, we can expect interest rates to be reduced to 0.50% then potentially 0.25% - a bearish effect on the AUD. We however predict that interest rates will remain the same on the upcoming Tuesday announcement and can expect a reduction of interest later next year. As bullish structure is presented around 0.67500 we can potentially anticipate price accelerating to the upside of 0.6900-0.7000 before continuation to the downside. This could also be a great correlation with the assumptions and timeline we have established above. Furthermore, adding to our assumptions, further confluence for upside can be due to the Chinese official November PMI announced over the weekend which beat the market estimates; having an effect on the USD do the the trade wars. Later in the week we have the US ISM Non-manufacturing data being announced which will have an effect on the smaller time frames (hopefully in time for the shorter term correction). We then finish off the week with non-farm payrolls which we believe will be a surprise as the job market according the US reports and data is said to be positive. This also should have an effect on the chart from the H4 and below. In a brief outline and conclusion, we have briefly discussed our assumptions and attempted to put a timeline together in conjunction with price; we therefore believe price will reach 0.6900-0.7000 before further downside acceleration continues. As outlined we will now demonstrate how price will be effected if QE goes ahead and if QE does not go ahead. Once we have demonstrated these scenarios we will provide a forecast for the potential upside move to 0.6900-0.7000.
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
USDJPY SELL LIMIT PENDING AROUND 110.000 (WEEKLY TIMEFRAME)Good morning traders from the UK. Time to look at the the higher timeframes on this one. We are stepping out and looking at the bigger picture that could impact this pair sooner rather than later. With 2020 looming it's good to see what the end the of this year COULD look like and how that may affect the pair moving into the first half of the year. -Weekly timeframe downtrend. We are looking for a third touch of the top descending trend line, This being my first level of resistance. In and around the 110.00 I have FIVE resistance levels across the weekly and monthly timeframe. Secondly a weekly key level (turquoise horizontal line), which we could see a false breakout upwards to suck in retail traders. The daily has to dojis just underneath this resistance level. Again this shows indecisiveness in the market NOT a change in direction. Which makes me feel we could still pop up 50 pips to the 110.000 physiological level and stop out a few early sellers. The weekly candle closure sits perfectly underneath my weekly resistance at 109.500. Coincidence? Thirdly, the pink trend line is from my monthly timeframe where the first point is from June 2016, the start of and uptrend. price did break the uptrend and is looking like it will retest this longterm trend line in and around the 110.00 mark. We also have a Simple moving average at 110.00 which acts as a level of resistance on the higher timeframe where the MA's are in a downtrend movement. The SMA is my fourth high timeframe resistance The fifth level of resistance is the 61.80% fibonacci retracement level. Again we have floated in and around this level for weeks. currently we have had to touched of the 61.80, price could be exhausted and tumble back towards the downside. This leads us nicely into mentioning that we are in counter uptrend within a yearly downtrend shown on my weekly timeframe by the highlighted grey box. Our weekly candle on 04 November is acting as a inside bar formation. I would not say that we have created a higher high this week due to the candle closure being in line with the top of the inside bar. This could show that over the past few weeks with have been moving sideways at the end of a uptrend. could this be the start of the downtrend? As we lead into December and the festive period the first 2 weeks of this month we may see a lot of movement before the holidays begin. One to look out for. Next week check put you economic calendar as it is jam packed with upcoming news that could push this pair in a direction. My personal opinion the DXY will begin to lose strength. This will also assist with my longterm bias of UJ short. Trade safe good risk management but all importantly go get those pips!!! Travis Duncan Instagram - Travis_duncz www.rebirthholdings.co.uk
Short
by Travis_duncz
Trade Ideas Position: USDSGD BatBullish Bat setup for a trading opportunity and this can attribute to the US NFP to give a final push to the entry price, the PRZ and PEZ. I don't usually trade USDSGD, but the stats on my end shows well when it works on Bat Pattern on the daily chart. I will be watching closely for this setup and decide if to engage the trade. Business owners who like to pay off in USD with a weaker USD and stronger SGD, you may like to make a decision today or by Monday. You see Forex can be used for trading, business decision and investment purposes. End of the day is still currency and it has its value.
Long
by RaynLim
Unrealized potential and plans for the futureJapan, Canada and the USA central banks' decisions, U.S. and Eurozone GDP latest statistics, as well as data on the US labour market 7 days latest news. In principle, each event from this list would be enough to fill the average week. As for the political aspect: a signal about possible problems in trade negotiations between the United States and China, the next parliamentary elections in the UK and ongoing impeachment process against Trump. The absence of significant movements in the foreign exchange market last week surprised us. The change of more than 100 points +/- was observed in most pairs. However, we consider this rather as an opportunity for trading, since unrealized potential has accumulated in prices. Accordingly, we plan to take up its implementation in the current week. Perhaps the greatest potential has accumulated in the US dollar. The Fed rate cut (the third in 2019) was unnoticed by the markets. Statistics on the US, which came out last week, although was better than forecasts (GDP and NFP), still made it clear that the general state of the US economy is deteriorating. The USA non-farm payroll (NFP) for instance. + 128K was 50% higher than analysts' forecasts, who expected growth at 85K. It would seem that the dollar should have just soared based on such data. But on the other hand, + 128K is 20-30% worse than the average value for the last couple of years. Also, the ISM index in the US manufacturing sector in October, published on Friday, was 48.3 points only (a value below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity). In our opinion, the dollar fell following the results of the week should have been much stronger. And since it did not happen last week, it will happen on this one. Therefore, we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. The Canadian dollar is a nice candidate for that. The Bank of Canada left the rate unchanged, that is, the percentage differential between the US dollars and Canada declined. The main Canadian dollar issue was news that the Chinese do not believe in the possibility of a long-term trade deal with the United States, while Trump stays in power. That is concerns about the ongoing trade war. Accordingly, commodity currencies were under pressure. But the value of the safe-haven assets grew: gold and the Japanese yen. We recommended buying them last week and will continue to do so in the current week. Note that under the current conditions, the formation of a trading portfolio, that is, when buying a Canadian dollar, it is advisable to have yen and gold in the list of positions. On Friday The Russian ruble paired with the dollar strengthened quite well and as a result, even closed below 63.50. Formally, it opens the way to further decline to 62.50 area. Despite this, we continue to recommend the USDRUB purchases. Everything goes according to the plan announced by us earlier: the first time of purchases from 63.60, the second one we start at about 62.60. So if someone has not bought a pair, you can do it now purchase at 63.60, and who is already in position should wait for an attempt to hit the 62.50.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Get ready for NFP: our expectations and recommendationsThe Japanese yen steadily strengthened yesterday because of the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan and news from China. When the Bank of Japan expectedly left the rate unchanged, the Chinese quite unexpectedly announced that they doubted the possibility of a long-term trade deal with President Donald Trump. That is, it is too early to stop worrying about the trade war. Therefore, safe-haven assets, the Japanese yen and gold yesterday were in high demand. Recall that in our review yesterday we recommended buying gold. So congratulations to those readers who follow our recommendations. It is worth noting data on the Eurozone GDP that came out on Thursday. On the one hand, it came out better than expected (+ 0.2% q / q for the forecast + 0.1% q / q), and on the other hand, the growth rate is still extremely close to zero. So there’s nothing much to rejoice about. Moreover, the unemployment rate was higher than expected, and inflation in the Eurozone continues to be rather weak. Not surprisingly, the euro travelled towards the 1.1160 resistance and hit that. The dollar was quoted quite mixed yesterday: against the yen, it fell, but against the euro and the pound - it strengthened. However, the most interesting movement will be today. Recall that data on the US labour market will be published today. Data on unemployment and average hourly wages this Friday will be much less significant. Our expectations for NFP are generally negative. If we compare the situation on the labour market now and a year ago, we can state its serious deterioration. One year ago, we were talking about the average value of the NFP 200K +, but recently it has been in the region of 150K, and the saddest thing for the US economy in all of this is that the indicator shows a clear downward trend. In general, expert forecasts confirm our expectations - the average forecast is 85K. This is more than half the average NFP over the past couple of years. However, the actual data may come out even worse. Over the past 5 months, 3 times the data on the NFP came out worse than forecasts, 1 time the analysts correctly predicted and only 1 time the actual data came out better than the forecast. So the chances are that the data will come out better than forecasts 1 to 5. We see two trading options: riskier and more profitable and less risky, but less profitable. The first option is about to start selling the dollar now in anticipation of weak data we have reasons for this. The US economy is slowing down. Which cannot but affect the state of the labour market. Accordingly, weak data will lead to sales of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. An excellent candidate for the sale is USDCAD. Also, gold purchases look very promising. As for the second option, which is less risky, we are talking about news trading. The bottom line is to work upon the release of the news. Obviously, the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That is, you do not have to guess whether the dollar goes up or down but just get into a position in the direction of movement after the data is released. To do this, we place orders like buy stop and sell stop at 2-3 minutes from the current price at that time 2-3 minutes before the news release. And we are waiting for the news to be published and one of the orders will work out. After that, you just need to be patient and wait. Risks are minimal, and earnings are limited only by your patience and the extent of the reaction of the foreign exchange market to data.
Short
by Trade24Fx