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EURUSD potential long Okay, On my Higher timeframe the Daily we have an uptreand , so i was looking for a pullback(Discount) so i can try and join the uptrend, on my trading timeframe the 240 i was looking for a temporary downtrend. Price started to range between 1.11212 and 1.10742(Marked by green broken lines) this was a sign of sellers struggling to go lower low, but the buy ran away from my anticipated entry. So i waited to see if the sellers can come in again, currently price is pulling back to broken Resistance looking to turn support. If the test is weak ill buy but if the test comes in big candles ill have to go back and wait on the sidelines. feel free to share your views on this pair, and feel free to critic my analysis. With pip love.
Long
by Jajani_20
Results of Central Banks, US GDP and ADPLet’s analyze the key events of yesterday. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone is rather depressed, as indeed the entire economy of the Eurozone. But at the same time, the euro did not show any specific movements. The dollar, on the contrary, despite the relatively good statistics, was losing its way. Preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter came out much better than analysts' forecasts (+ 1.9% y / y with a forecast + 1.6% y / y), consumer spending also showed growth. Employment data from ADP (especially important in anticipation of tomorrow's data on NFP) also higher than expected (+ 125K with a forecast +110 K). Although we note that fact that USD paired with the Canadian dollar strengthened due to the decision of the Bank of Canada to leave the rate unchanged. Therefore the USDCAD provided an excellent opportunity for its sales, as we recommended in yesterday. It means that you can sell it today. The main event of yesterday, of course, was the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee. The rate was cut by 0.25%. As a result, the dollar continued to suffer losses in the foreign exchange market. Our recommendation on the dollar remains unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Tomorrow we are waiting for the official statistics on the US labour market, which is likely to lead to the formation of a full downtrend. But we will talk about this tomorrow. The Bank of Japan: the rate is unchanged. The press conference of the Central Bank will take place after the publication of this review, so we’ll talk about its results tomorrow. In the meantime, we tend to buy the yen primarily against the dollar. Today we are waiting for the statistics on GDP growth in the Eurozone, data on personal income and expenditure in the United State to come out. Our recommendations for today: sale USDCAD, as well as the dollar as a whole in the foreign exchange market; buy gold and sale the Russian ruble.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Last week outcome and current market statement ISM Manufacturing Index report announced on Tuesday was the main event last week. Recall, the Index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 - 47.8 points (below 50 means decrease inactivity). As a result, the dollar has undergone the most massive one-day sales over the last month. However, the sale did not receive further development. The markets were waiting for the statistics on the NFP (unemployment fell to 3.5%, which is a record low for the past few decades. NFP figures are close enough to the forecasts and market expectations. Nevertheless, the dynamics can be traced more clearly (downward trend). So after Friday’s data to come out, the Fed has untied its hands to reduce rates in October (currently the markets estimate the probability at 76%). We also note that lower wage growth is also another enable signal to lower the interest rate. So, our position as for the dollar has not changed, but rather strengthened. We will continue to look for points for its sales across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Moreover, the US has not only economic but also political problems. The beginning of the impeachment procedure, regardless of its outcomes, is a negative signal for the US dollar. As for the upcoming week, it will be relatively calm on Wednesday, the markets will look through the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, on Thursday data on the UK economy (GDP, industrial production), as well as inflation in the USA, on Friday, attention will be focused on statistics on the Canadian labour market, as well as consumer sentiment in the USA. Of our other preferences, we note the purchase of gold, as well as the Japanese yen. According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, the 4th quarter in the last 10 years is the most unfortunate period for the Japanese yen. So do not forget about the stops and control the volume of entry. In the oil market last week, everything was following our forecasts. Goal 51.20 has been achieved. After that, the bears recorded profits on Friday. It is still difficult to say whether this fixation will turn into a full-fledged correction. So we will spend the beginning of the week neutral regarding oil - we will observe how events will develop and we will monitor the news background.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD post NFPHello traders, Today's jobs reports in the US was not bad at all, adding 136K in September, flat wages and unemployment rate at a record low. This week's up move by the pair was in anticipation of a bad jobs report following dismal readings from manufacturing and services PMIs. However, it was not as bad as expected so this was a good sign for the bears. On the technical side, I already talked about 1.0990 resistance level and that the bulls need to overcome it to assure further gains. They tested this level which is the 20 day-SMA (Has been a strong resistance in the recent past) but failed to close above it. We are still in the down channel shown on my daily chart, but on the hourly charts it broke the channel (also shown on my 4hr chart). So technically, we are now in a sideways market and trying to find a top before resuming the bear trend. Next important resistance for the bulls to beat is around 1.10220 ( 200 4h SMA, upper boundary of the channel). Next week doesn't bring important economic figures, so traders must pay attention to technicals. Good luck
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR/USD prior NFPI am expecting a bigger temporary bottom in the EUR/USD to play out, but because a new marginal lower low took place it is better to wait with this setup until a certain price level has been taken out on the upside. This pricelevel has now been taken out to the upside so I am prefering a nice Long opportunity in the EUR/USD during the NFPs with a good chance to risk ratio. However Entry should only be taken when there is confirming price action in the smaller time frames.
Long
by JonasBenjaminFriedrich
The dollar is in jeopard: getting ready for the NFPIf you look at the dynamics of the Dollar Index yield at the beginning of the month, you might note that the maximum number of sales were on January, March, April, May, June, August, September and October. In general, it’s time to form a trading strategy: we are waiting for the beginning of the month and at around 3rd of October we are selling the dollar. With a probability of 80%, you can count on. The dollar has confidence in its power. This is what we have been expecting for a long time. In yesterday’s review, we noted the anomalous value of the dollar ( too high). And its decline finally happened. But for the further development of the downward movement, at least today, one more factor is needed. We are talking about statistics on the US labour market. If the NFP figures turn out to be worse than forecasts, the dollar will receive a powerful impetus for the development of the correction and will be sold out. We consider this scenario as basic. Data within the forecasts to come out +/- is rather against the dollar, than “for”. The figure +145 +/- is much lower than the average NFP number over the past couple of years, which fluctuates around 170-180K, which confirms that the US economy is slowing down. This will give markets a signal that the Fed will be forced to cut the rate at least 1 more time in 2019. And this is more than a serious reason for the sale of the dollar. In general, the dollar can be saved with the NFP figures in the region above the average, that is, above 180K, and preferably 200K. In this case, the US dollar may well stop its fall. Since the probability is small, today we will sell the dollar. Gold purchases, as we can see, are again relevant. So today, in the light of dollar weakness and deterioration in the general state of the US economy, we will continue to look for points for gold purchases. By the way, weak data on NFPs may well trigger sales in the oil market. The key point is concerned about the growth rate of non-oil demand, which in turn is directly related to the state of the world economy. Weak data will confirm fears that global growth will continue to slow, which in turn will make us think about a slowdown in oil demand. So this will be a bearish signal for the oil market. So today we are also inclined to look for points for the sale of oil since the current goal of the downward movement of oil was achieved yesterday. At the same time, we cannot fail to note that our recommendation on the oil market was given on Monday: to sell oil at current prices at that time of about 56.30 with targets at the bottom of 51 yesterday worked out well. So those of our readers who trust and listen to our opinion should meet Friday in a very good mood. + 10% excluding leverage in less than a week - this is very good.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Data from ADP, unstable gold and weak oilThe publication of US employment data from ADP came out yesterday. However, the outcome did not form positions in the markets. The + 135K figure came out almost in line with forecasts (experts expected + 140K), so the markets did not get an answer to the question of what to expect from the NFP figures. Although in general, the vector is unpleasant for the US economy and the US dollar in particular ( a decrease in the number of new jobs and a gradual deterioration in the US labour market). So our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we will continue to look for points for its sales. QAs for the dynamics of gold. Breakdown 1485-1490 gave the asset a sign to go down. The lows in the region of 1460 are in favour of that. But weak data on the US economy on Tuesday turned the situation upside down. Yesterday’s value of 1290 means the return to the bull market and the end of the correction. But since statistics on the US labour market will make the next batch of corrections already on Friday, we refrain from recommendations on gold this week: we will wait until the markets still decide whether to grow or fall. As for the oil. The market-determined the basic drivers: a slowdown in the global economy as a negative factor in demand and production restoration by Saudi Arabia as a positive factor for supply. As a result, sellers continued to dominate, and in the evening also intensified amid information about US oil reserves. According to the Ministry of Energy, weekly stocks rose by 3 million barrels, which is a bearish signal. So today we do not see any special reasons for the growth. But on Friday may well be adjustments. So on Thursday, we will continue to look for points for oil sales, but exclusively on the intraday basis. Although we note that oil prices have almost reached the calculated points for the current decline, announced by us on Monday. As for China and Germany, we do not expect anything special today. Tomorrow we are waiting for statistics on the US labour market, there is every reason to expect a relatively calm day, during which the markets will prepare for NFP data to realize. So today you can try to concentrate on active oscillatory intraday trading. For example, use clock oscillators and sell from the local overbought area and buy from the local oversold area. That is, to work without any obvious preferences.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Bank of Australia, euro immunity and dollar failureThe US dollar confidently dominated before the ISM index in the US industrial sector outcome, but after failure followed. The Australian dollar responded to the actions of the Central Bank. We observed decreased after the rate was reduced (the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday lowered the rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. This decision was expected by participants in financial markets). In general, we received one more confirmation in favour of the formation of a global vector for the widespread easing of monetary policies by leading central banks of the world. The current value of the Australian dollar shows interesting for purchase. Given that the ratio of potential profit / expected loss in the AUDUSD is close to ideal, today we will try to buy a pair based on the fixation of profits or just working off the level of 0.67. Stops below 0.6660, but the profits can be set in the area of 0.6800. The Australian dollar was not the only one the US dollar was strengthening. Another currency is the British pound. But again, it can be understood, the political sphere of Britain is getting closer to a complete dead end. The data on the PMI index of business activity in the manufacturing industry, although came out much better than forecasts (48.3 points with a forecast of 47.0), still turned out to be significantly lower than 50. The euro received another painful hit. This time, the PMI in the manufacturing sector disappointed (with the forecast 45.7). However, there were no euro sales, which suggested the formation of a bottom from which it might be able to push off and develop a correction. In the USA, meanwhile, political conflict continues. The "X" moment came after the publication of data on the ISM index in the US industrial sector. The index fell to the lowest level since June 2009 - 47.8 points. Recall that an index exit below 50 means decrease inactivity. The markets took this as a signal that the Fed would raise interest rates again in 2019 and rushed to sell the dollar. We have been waiting for these sales for a couple of days (see our previous reviews). We consider yesterday's dollar decline only the beginning of its fall and today we will continue to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But at the same time, we note that yesterday's data was not something outstanding and sales were more related to expectations of possible weak data from the NFPs to come out than to the actual reaction to the ISM Index. Pay attention to the statistics on US employment from ADP. Although traditionally these data do not lead to a sharp increase in volatility, in general, the correlation with the NFP is small (about 20-25%), nevertheless, the state of the US labour market is one of the key moments, so a surprise may well provoke, for example, the long-awaited dollar sales by us. But for this, the figure should be below 100K.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USDCAD LONG I am seeing a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 4 hour timeframe for this pair. I will have to wait for the completion of the left shoulder for confirmation. So far the pair has been showing bullish signs and had a recent break of its down-trendline from September 19, 2019. Price has been holding highs within a range around 1.3200. Once we see a significant break out of this range, then it will add confirmation that is needed for the right shoulder. If 1.3400 highs are broken then I will take price up 200 pips to 1.3600. Anything can happen, especially with NFP coming this Friday so I am prepared to get out with a defensive strategy if need be and be prepared to take a short at the break of 1.3100 support.
Long
by bajapips
EUR/USD where to ? Hello traders, As expected, the pair broke the previous support at 1.09 today and resumed the bear trend printing a new YTD level around 1.0880. German retail sales and inflation data disappointed, which fueled the move. In my opinion, those economic figures did nothing more than speeding up the move which was going to happen anyway according to technicals. Today's candle is a strong bearish engulfing, expecting the move to resume in the days ahead. Bears should watch out as we are approaching a critical support in the 1.08 neighborhood which is the 50% fibo level and weekly gap back in 2017. Resistance levels are: 1.0927-1.0960 Bearish view won't get weaker unless the resistance line is broken (shown on the chart) which is today near 1.1050. Don't forget it's a busy week starting with manufacturing, services PMIs and CPI for the Euro-zone, and most importantly the famous NFP on Friday. Good luck and always use SL.
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
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