EURGBP is looking sexy :) Market Execution Buy up to the .618 level!
Looks like a correction from last weeks drop
BUYING FOR 50 PIPS UP TO THE LIGHT BLUE LINE.
Nfp
Risk Events - U.S Jobs Numbers Happy Hours for Stop Hunters Friday was an inside day www.investopedia.com , pretty funny for most new traders who were taught that NFP day is pretty volatile and results in high range day. If there is no liquidity = price won't move.
When the U.S Job numbers came out, I projected the zone of manipulation would be around 1.10500-1.10600 price zones(@itsReal307 would confirm this as I mentioned it in our whatsapp group ibb.co ) / ibb.co and claimed that the bullish move was nothing more than a stop hunt.
TRADERSAI - A.I. POWERED MODEL TRADES for Today, FRI 09/06Non Farm Payrolls Disappoint - Markets Cheering(?)
The lower than expected non-farm payrolls number looks to be feeding into the upside momentum in the markets - apparently with the hope that the Fed might be pressured into lowering rates aggressively. Or, it could just be a technical bounce related to the options expiration and other market micro-structural issues which may not be sustainable even into the next week.
How far the current rise would continue is something to be seen, but the bull case is driving the markets this morning as well. Read below for our models' trading plans for the day.
tradersai.com
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #china, #tradewar, #recession, #yields, #tariffs, #jobs, #payrolls, #nfp
GOLD IS LOOKING LOVELY Setting up Gold USD for a retest at the YELLOW line. THAT WOULD BE BEAUTIFUL.
I'll be setting alerts at the LIGHT BLUE line and the YELLOW line to respond to what price is doing then.
(TRADE IDEA: You can use a sell limit for the yellow line OR wait to see if you can BUY off the light blue line using the alert)
NFP, pound growth and goldEverything develops according to the scenario described earlier - Johnson’s defeat in Parliament is an occasion for the pound growth and its purchases. However, it’s too early to relax. Yes, the pound still has the opportunity to grow for not just a hundred points, but a thousand or even more. The key threat to the pound has not disappeared yet. So you should trade cautiously.
There is every chance that the ban on exiting without a deal will acquire the status of the law, which means Johnson will not be able to do anything. Even his brother Joe denied Johnson. So the streak of setbacks for the new prime minister is going on. But Johnson's failure is the success of the pound.
US employment data from ADP surprised us. + 195 000 with a forecast +148 000. And the data surprised us because recently the US economy has been showing more and more disturbing messages such as GDP data for the second quarter, and business activity indices, some even went below 50.
So, despite yesterday's figures from ADP, we are rather sceptical about official statistics on the US labor market. In general, today's data is more important than ever. On the one hand, weak figures will confirm investors' concerns that the US economy is losing its confidence more rapidly. And on the other hand, it will become a signal fo the Fed that it is necessary to do something. That is, the fate of the rate cut may not be decided on September 18 at the FOMC meeting, but today.
Therefore the dollar may receive a double hit, from which it will not be able to recover for a long time. That is why today we recommend selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. But we need weak NFPs for that.
As for the trade war. The US and China negotiations were postponed. Now the date sounds like “early October.” That is, the confrontation will continue in September. So do not forget to buy gold.
USDCAD remained heavy USDCAD has remained heavy after posting a 24-day low at 1.3191 yesterday, which extended the correction from the two-and-a-half month high that was printed on Tuesday at 1.3382.
The recouperation in risk appetite in global markets, with the U.S. and China headed back to the negotiating table, has been a positive for the Canadian Dollar, and other commodity currencies. Oil prices are up over 2% from week-ago levels (WTI futures). Resistance comes in at 1.3270-73. The dual releases of U.S. and Canadian employment reports will naturally bring directional risk to USD-CAD. The August U.S. payrolls is expected to show resilience in the labour market, anticipating a a 165k August headline rise that about matches the 164k July increase, with the jobless rate ticking down to 3.6% from 3.7%, alongside gains of 0.3% for both hours-worked and hourly earnings.
The Canadian employment report has us expecting a 30k gain in August after the 24.2k drop in July, with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.7%. As-expected data shouldn't have much bearing on USD-CAD.
Disclaimer : This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Ahead of NFPBy Andria Pichidi
Yesterday’s contraction signal from the disappointing US Manufacturing PMI rekindled concerns about the fallout from ongoing geopolitical trade tensions, while this adds further pressure on the upcoming Jobs report on Friday.
The reading was an indication that trade and tariff turmoil continues to cast a dark shadow over the global economy. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped to 49.1 in August, weaker than expected, but not a surprise, after slipping 0.5 ticks to 51.2 in July. This is the first time in contractionary territory since August 2016, and it is the lowest since January 2016. Every component but supplier delivers is now below the 50 expansion, contraction line. Meanwhile, the Markit manufacturing PMI slipped as well, printing the lowest outcome since September 2009, as it holds above the contraction line.
Significant is the fact that the employment sub-component fell to 47.4 from 51.7. This could be a negative singal for the upcoming jobs report from US on Friday, as a possible contraction in manufacturing sector may result to cut the number of Jobs in the particular sector.
However, let’s flip back to the Non-Farm payrolls report which is expected to post a rise up to 165k in August after the in-line outcome seen last month with a 164k increase. This forecast is well below the 223K seen in 2018.
The jobless rate ticking down to 3.6%, alongside gains of 0.3% for both hours-worked and hourly earnings. Initial claims remained firm in August, while most consumer confidence eased to still firm levels. Most producer sentiment measures rebounded slightly, but vehicle assemblies could moderate from an elevated June-July pace.
Meanwhile, yesterday, US reports revealed a surprisingly large August ISM-NMI bounce to 56.4 from a 3-year low of 53.7, alongside a similar ISM-adjusted bounce to 56.1 from a 3-year low of 53.0. The employment gauge fell, however, to a 2-year low of 53.1 from 56.2. The July factory goods report largely tracked assumptions, with a weak -0.1% nondurable inventory figure but a firm 0.8% gain for nondurable factory shipments and orders, alongside only minor revisions to the durables data for orders, equipment, shipments, and inventories. We saw a big 195k August ADP rise but a 1k uptick for initial claims to 217k. Yesterday's August vehicle sales figures revealed a 1% rise to a 17.0 mln clip that beat estimates, though we expect a vehicle assembly rate pull-back to the 11.3 mln area after a three-month climb to 11.6 mln in July. The Q2 productivity report revealed no revisions in previously released gains of 2.3% in Q2 and 3.5% in Q1, though we did see upward revisions in the already-robust 2019 compensation figures.
We still see balanced risk for our 165k August nonfarm payroll estimate. All of today's data are tracking an economy that is exhibiting continued moderate growth, despite the market's slowdown fears. We still expect a Q2 GDP boost to 2.1% from 2.0%, followed by 2.4% growth in Q3.
FX Markets so far today:
The dollar majors have remained within respective Thursday ranges, though some yen and Swiss franc cross rates have clawed out fresh highs, with GBP-JPY and AUD-CHF, for instance both seeing new one-month highs. The backdrop remains one of a cautious risk-back-on sentiment, with investors finding tonic from the U.S. and China's path to another round of face-to-face trade negotiations, and by market-favourable political developments in both the UK and Italy. There are, of course, good reasons to be sceptical with regard to the prospects for a breakthrough on the U.S.-China trade front, given the multiplicity of past disappointments and with Beijing seemingly of a mindset, unencumbered by an election cycle, to use its tactical advantage of patience through to the U.S. presidential election in November 2020. On the Brexit front, Labour, the principal opposition in the UK, has made it clear they won't support PM Johnson's call for a new general election until after the no-deal bill is passed, and not until October 19, which is the date -- assuming, as looks 100% certain, there hasn't been a new Brexit deal agreed in Parliament or that Parliament doesn't vote in favour a no-deal exit -- that a 3-month Brexit extension will become the legal default. Labour reportedly wants to delay an election until after October 31, in fact, thinking it will damage Johnson politically as he would have failed to deliver Brexit "no its or buts" by Halloween. This should keep the pound underpinned, for now, though the spectre of a no-deal Brexit hasn't disappeared as Johnson and his Tory party could of course still win in an election.
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Risk Events - U.S and Canadian Jobs Numbers People sometimes confuse with trading the economic numbers' reactionary price action as part of "Team Fundamental Analysis" trader. I have a better word for that: Storm Catcher. I have a dear friend who trades this way, (@itsReal307 - his handle in tradingview) unlike most people I've seen, he's done it with success. I have tried it in the past, most of my big losses came from trading this way. So, that my friend of mine, I don't know how he does it, being a storm catcher (or chaser?).
I, however, am a very defensive trader, risk-averse in nature, I would avoid the storm. The price action after NFP numbers, I tend to avoid and stayed on the sidelines, especially if it is against my technical bias and/or against the bias I've determined analyzing the underlying sentiment of the currencies involved (i.e I am bullish bias for USDCAD but the jobs number for the U.S is negative). I believe risk events like NFP, are a great hunting ground for the institutional to stop hunts/manipulate the price/ensuing liquidity runs, hence if you do not know what you're doing (like my friend who does), stay away from trading this at least after 30 minutes of the number's release.
In this chart, showcases how my technical bias contradicts the jobs numbers. I stayed on the sideline for 30 minutes, which in this case, no bullish trigger warranted me to go Long until the following Monday. Risk Events provides liquidity but with the spreads tend to widen and slippages tend to happen, it's best that you just stay away from this risk event.
USDCAD SELL - CAN NFP HELP THE DECLINE? TARGET 1.30500-BREAK OUT OF CONSOLIDATION & HIGHER TIMEFRAME MOTHER CANDLE
-LOOKING FOR A DUPLICATION BREAK
Johnson loses and Pound Victory, Bank of Canada and GoldWe continue to watch the confrontation between the British Parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson is losing another battle. On Tuesday, Boris Johnson not only lost his working majority, but he also could not initiate early elections.
As we predicted, the pound strengthened. Even the weak data on business activity in the UK could not prevent its strengthening: the PMI index of business activity in the services sector came out below forecasts (50.6 with a forecast of 51.0).
The dollar continued to suffer losses in the foreign exchange market. Even the euro strengthened against it. And this even though retail sales in the Eurozone came in the negative zone (-0.6%). However, despite yesterday's growth of the EURUSD, we are rather sceptical about buying euros.
Gold purchases look much more attractive and prospective under the current conditions. Another Fed rate cut in a couple of weeks (100% of traders believe in) could give an upward impulse to gold for its growth in the region of 1600. Recall that one of the key arguments against buying gold is its inability to generate guaranteed profit. But the Fed's rate-cutting cycles could lead to the dollar losing its ability to generate profit and becoming not interesting to investors.
The Bank of Canada announced that it left the policy rate steady. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened by a hundred points against the US dollar. Central Bank is not planning to cut rates in Canada saying that there are no reasons for that yat.
Today, as for macroeconomic statistics, it is interesting primarily for US employment data from ADP. Weak data could trigger dollar sales - traders will not wait for official statistics on Friday and will rush to discount under weak NFPs in advance.
Bears Continue To Drive The Dollar Lower so we recommend selling it since we expect a stronger wave of sales due to statistics on the US labour market.
Besides, today we will buy gold and the Japanese yen. Sales of the Russian ruble and oil are also what we are interested in.
Getting ready for a volatile day: pound and dollar have the bullLabor Day in the US and Canada led to a relatively calm day on the financial market. But today everything can change radically.
On the one hand, Hurricane Dorian threatens to become the most powerful in history. This means that the potential damage could also become the most significant. Yesterday we promised to show the way how to make money on this kind of natural force majeure.
Here are a couple of facts. Irma was the first Category 5 hurricane (like Dorian) provoked a sharp decrease in the number of new jobs created out of a farm sector in the United States (NFP indicator) in September 2017. With an average 200K number, its September figures were (the peak activity of Irma in the month of August) -33K (!). In 2018, hurricanes were less destructive, but the September NFPs came out below forecasts 30% (!)and much lower than the average.
Thus, if the hurricane turns out to be quite destructive, we can expect weak figures for the US labor market for September-October. Accordingly, it will be possible to prepare in advance for the failed data and make money on it.
But the consequences of Dorian are not clear yet and will manifest after some time, but in the UK everything can be much more dynamic. Today, the UK Parliament is returning from recess with the understanding that they have less than 10 days to stop Johnson, because on September 12 his activities will be suspended until mid-October (the UK will leave the EU on October 31).
That is, today all sorts of sensational news are possible to happen. There are a lot of development options of events, starting from the law prohibiting exit without a deal, ending with the resignation of the Government or early elections.Thus, the dynamics of the pound so far seems completely unpredictable - it will be entirely determined by the results of the parliamentarians activities.
Let's try to give an approximate plan for working with the pound, depending on certain results. We sell the pound if the Parliament can accept nothing, as this is likely to mean a "hard" Brexit. We buy the pound if a law is passed to ban the exit without a deal or if a vote of no confidence is put forward to the Government. We regard early elections as a neutral option with positive for the pound since it will at least delay the “hard” Brexit.
Also, today it is worth paying attention to the ISM index of business activity in the USA, Michel Lagarde speech, as well as the index of business activity in the UK.
Speaking of our other trading preferences for today, we note that we will continue to sell the euro, buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
Fite for Brexit: getting ready for hot SeptemberBe concern working with the pound. Boris Johnson's decision to shut down parliament for five weeks in order ... controversial plan to suspend the UK's parliament for five weeks. The Queen has approved an order to prorogue the UK Parliament. Boris Johnson seriously set his sights on leaving without a deal. Of course, there is a chance that this is just his attempt to strengthen his position in negotiations with the EU, well knowing Johnson’s temperament, we no longer exclude the most radical scenarios.
The first week of September may be decisive for Brexit: time the opposition has to pass a law that does not allow an exit without a deal. Among other options - a vote of no confidence in the government, the dissolution of the Parliament and early elections. So, it will not be boring, pound volatility in September are guaranteed. For intraday trading, this is an opportunity to make money trading with pound pairs. So we will continue to monitor the development of events and will keep our readers informed of what is happening.
Yesterday's US GDP data came out in line with forecasts: + 2.0% y / y. This means that the data has been revised downward. Statistics on the US labor market will be published, in particular, data on the NFP will be published next weak, a serious driver for a powerful dollar movement is not expected.
Extremely weak figures were published on consumer inflation in Germany. In general, the concerns about one of the best Eurozone economy raises. Based on this, yesterday’s comments by the future head of the ECB, Michel Lagarde, that the ECB has tools to deal with the recession and should be prepared to use them if it is necessary.
Against this background, we will continue to recommend avoiding buying euros against anything. But sales of it still seems to be a good trading idea.
As for the trade war. The markets did not understand whether Trump was called from China or not. New tariffs for goods from China come into force on Monday. And this means that the trade war is not over. However, in September, the Chinese delegation should arrive in Washington so the chance to stop still exists. We will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday basis. Moreover, safe-haven assets today are something that worth to buy.
DXY Day movement for NFP!DXY
We are anticipating a big down move for dollar in this next news release of Non-farm payrolls!!
Trump and Powell confrontation and current marketsLast week proved quite eventful for financial markets. More than we expected.
The Federal Reserve cut its fed funds rate on Wednesday by 25 basis point to a range of 2% to 2.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, “It's not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts,”. The current rate cut is a reaction of the Central Bank to an economic slowdown, and its further actions will depend on the state of the economy. The Fed also noted the trade war negative impact on the US economy.
Trump shocked the markets in May by hiking tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated and said a trade deal will not be reached unless the existing duties were stripped. In this light, the safe-haven assets are needed to be bought.
As a result, Interactive chart of historical data showing the broad price-adjusted U.S. dollar index published by the Federal Reserve has shown its MAX since 2017.
The Banks of Japan and England maintaining the existing structure of the financial system have decided not to change the existing status.
A new round of the trade battle between the United States and China. “The U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country,” says Trump in a tweet. China quite naturally replied that it would respond adequately.
Nothing foreshadowed trouble. On Monday, American delegates arrived in Shanghai. Although that did not bring any special results, the parties agreed to meet in September already in the United States. That is, it would seem, there is a certain process. And here Trump comes out with his statements. We have a small conspiracy theory about this.
Pay attention! The time when Trump announced a new round of trade war is similar to the Fed’s decision the reaction and Powell’s comments as well, which led to a rise in the dollar price. Recall, Trump is extremely dissatisfied with the strong dollar, but, despite all his criticism of the Fed and Powell, the US Central Bank continues to bend its line, ignoring the requirements of the President. What Trump has to do if it is not possible to push through the idea of currency intervention, for now?
He has only one tool of indirect influence - trade war. Its escalation will force the Fed to lower the rate further, which in turn will drive to a decline in the dollar value as a reaction to the cycle of depressions.
Another important event last week was the publication of statistics on the US labor market. The NFP came out worse than forecasts, but on the whole, the value is sufficiently neutral (although we note that the June’s job report has revised down by more than 30K).
Our position on the dollar remains unchanged - we recommend selling it. Escalating trade war increased the likelihood of several Fed rate cuts in 2019. Data on the NFP signal a slowdown in the US economy and Trump makes it unequivocally clear that he intends to “fight” a strong dollar. So the current week we declare a week of dollar sales.
Besides, it makes sense to buy safe-haven assets. Remember, sell the Russian ruble and oil.
