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TH KOG REPORT - NFP THE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Quick NFP report today as we’re most likely not going to be trading the event due to already having completed our targets for the week. We have plotted the key levels together with the immediate red boxes on the chart. We have key level support below at the 2500-2495 region and the bias as bullish above with potential price targets of 2530/2535 and on the break up into the 2550-55 region which is where we may stall and get a RIP. Breaking below the 2500 region will entail patience as we would like to see how long we go before a setup presents itself. It’s going to be a risky NFP and extreme levels are important, forget about immediate SnR, this is irrelevant in this scenario. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
Yen extends gains on solid wage growth, consumer spending nextThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.27 at the time of writing, down 0.33% on the day. The yen continues to pummel the US dollar and is up 1.9% this week. Since July 1, the yen has surged a massive 10.7%. Average cash earnings in Japan rose 3.6% y/y in July, down from 4.5% in June, which was the highest since January 1997. Still, this beat the market estimate of 3.1%. Wages are a key factor as to how soon the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates. Inflation has been moving higher but the BoJ wants to see increased wage growth as well in order to achieve the Bank’s target of sustainable inflation at 2%. Japanese firms agreed to a huge wage increase of 5.1% for 2024 and this is being reflected in solid wage growth. Japan’s economy is showing signs of recovery and consumers are opening their wallets. Household spending will be released early Friday and is expected to rebound with a gain of 1.2% y/y in July, following a 1.4% decline in June. In the US, all eyes are on Friday’s employment report, specifically nonfarm payrolls. After a lower-than-expected gain of 114 thousand in July, the markets expect a gain of 160 thousand in August. The weak July numbers triggered a meltdown in the financial markets and investors remain uneasy. The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a milestone rate cut on Sept. 18. The likelihood of a 25 bps cut stands at 61% and a 50 bps cut at 39%, according to CME’s FedWatch and these odds could change after the US employment report. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 143.57 and tested support at 142.91 earlier There is resistance at 144.10 and 144.76
by OANDA
USDJPY I ADP Non-Farm Report Trading Plan Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
4
US indeces pre market TuesdayHere's a breakdown of why the S&P 500 might drop to the next green zone based on the technical analysis depicted in the chart: 1. Resistance Zone (Upper Red Box) The chart highlights a resistance zone near the top, marked by a red box. This zone represents a price level where the S&P 500 has struggled to move higher and has reversed several times in the past. The price has recently touched this resistance zone and failed to break through it, indicating that selling pressure is stronger at this level. 2. Support Zone (Lower Green Box) The green box at the bottom represents a support zone, which is a price level where the index has previously found buying interest and reversed upward. The chart suggests that the price could potentially drop back to this support zone if the current downtrend continues. 3. Recent Price Action The price action within the last few candlesticks shows a downward movement after touching the resistance zone, which is depicted by the downward arrow. This suggests that sellers have taken control, and the price is likely to continue moving lower. 4. Breakdown of Support Levels The price appears to be breaking down through minor support levels (smaller green zones within the red box), which could indicate that the market is losing bullish momentum and could head towards the lower support zone. 5. Trading Setup The chart suggests a short (sell) trade setup, where the expected movement is for the price to drop towards the lower green zone. The green arrow indicates the anticipated direction of the price movement, while the red and green shaded areas likely represent the stop-loss and take-profit levels, respectively. Conclusion Based on the chart's technical analysis, the S&P 500 is expected to decline to the next green support zone due to the strong resistance at the current level, recent bearish price action, and the potential breakdown of intermediate support levels. If the price reaches the lower green zone, it might find support and possibly reverse, but until then, the outlook is bearish.
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by Elite_Forex
Gold did nothing, So I slept + I had a headacheThe best thing about being a full time trader is being able to do what I want when I want and as much as I am in pain as I type this, Just knowing that I don't have to answer to anyone reduces that pain 10 fold for me, honest. I don't have to request any leave, I don't have to report to anyone. I can just go. Yeah sure making money is great but what good is it if it costs you your peace. I'd openly accept making 10 times less than what I make now in exchange for my peace. Yeah you read that right.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Brandon_evo4
USD/JPY – Surging yen improves to 15-week highThe Japanese yen continues to rally. USD/JPY is trading at 148.86 in the European session, down 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. On Thursday, the yen strengthened as much as 148.50, its best showing since May 11. Only three weeks ago, the yen looked dead in the water. USD/JPY was trading just shy of 162, its highest level in almost four decades. Since then, the yen has been on an absolute tear, rising a staggering 7.9%, including 3.1% this week. What is driving the yen’s spectacular turnaround? First, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates this week to 0.25%. Although rates remain at low levels, this rate increase, the second since March, indicates that the BoJ is slowly making the shift to normalization after decades of an ultra-loose accommodative policy. The BoJ also announced it would taper its bond purchases, which is another tightening step. Second, investors have become less enthusiastic about the US dollar now that a September cut is looking very likely and are looking to park their assets elsewhere. The US economy is showing some signs of weakness, such as this week’s ISM manufacturing PMI for July, which posted the sharpest contraction since November 2023. This has driven funds away from the US dollar towards safe-haven assets such as the yen. Today’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall from 206 thousand to 175 thousand, which could further boost the yen at the expense of the US dollar. This week’s BoJ rate hike showed that change is afoot in Japan and the government’s annual white paper on economic and fiscal policy, which was released today, supported that view. The white paper said that Japan was showing signs of breaking out of deflation, noting that businesses were now passing on costs to consumers due to increased costs from the yen’s sharp decline. . USD/JPY continues to break below support levels. Earlier, it pushed below support at 149.19 and is testing support at 148.72. Below, there is support at 149.59 150.03 and 150.44 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Pre NFP Analysis2nd August (NFP Pending) DXY: could see weaker NFP (155k), DXY to retest 104.45, reject to trade down to 104 round number. Could trade down to 103.65 if <155k. NZDUSD: Sell 0.5910 SL 15 TP 45 (DXY strength) AUDUSD: Buy 0.6505 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) USDJPY: Sell 148.40 SL 50 TP 210 (Hesitation at 147.30) or Buy 149.75 SL 50 TP 220 (Double Bottom) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2690 SL 20 TP 70 (Pre news) EURUSD: Buy 1.0825 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) USDCHF: Sell 0.8740 SL 20 TP 60 USDCAD: Sell 1.3885 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) Gold: Could retrace to test 2450 then rebound to 2480
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision A Reuters survey indicates that most economists anticipate the Bank of England (BOE) reducing interest rates at its August meeting. The poll revealed that over 80% of respondents expect a rate cut. We could see a close decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with a 5-4 split in favor of a rate cut, leaving Governor Andrew Bailey to cast the deciding vote. Market sentiment, however, remains more divided. Although, the investor outlook is gradually aligning with the expectation of a rate reduction with a slight majority predicting that rates will be cut. Over in the US, the nonfarm payrolls report is forecasted to show a decline from 206,000 in June to 175,000 in July. Contrary to this consensus, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen predicts a significant rise in nonfarm payrolls to 225,000 for July, the highest since March. While the July jobs report may not drastically shift the Federal Reserve's policy direction, it will be pivotal in solidifying expectations for a rate cut in September.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD Key Levels: 1.075 - 1.081 - 1.066 General Overview: The EUR/USD pair has recently lost ground in a short-term bullish recovery, testing new two-week lows near the 1.0800 level, as the movement's momentum has drained out ahead of updates on EU GDP data. The latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected on Wednesday, with a new round of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) scheduled for Friday. Fundamental Analysis: The US Dollar (USD) started the week on a positive note, reversing consecutive daily gains in EUR/USD and testing three-day lows near the 1.0800 region. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) after the summer break have influenced market dynamics. In terms of monetary policy, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at the July 31 meeting, while the easing cycle is anticipated to begin in September. The ECB, according to recent comments from Vice President Luis de Guindos, may also cut rates in September. This policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB could lead to further weakening of the European currency in the medium term. Key Macroeconomic Data: Market participants will closely follow the release of preliminary Q2 GDP data from both Germany and the Eurozone, as well as advanced inflation data from Germany, scheduled for July 30. The preliminary Eurozone CPI report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting. Finally, key US macroeconomic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, will be crucial in determining the next moves for the EUR/USD pair. Technical Outlook: From a technical perspective, spot prices showed resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-July rally on Monday, although the lack of significant buying suggests caution for bulls. Oscillators on the daily chart are starting to gain negative traction, suggesting that the path of least resistance for EUR/USD is to the downside. Spot prices could weaken further below the 61.8% Fibonacci level near the 1.0775 region and test the next relevant support near the 1.0745 horizontal zone. This is closely followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci level near the 1.0730 area, below which EUR/USD could challenge the June monthly low, around the 1.0660 region, with some intermediate support near the psychological 1.0700 mark. Conversely, any subsequent move up is likely to confront resistance near the 1.0840-1.0845 region or the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Sustained strength beyond this could lift the EUR/USD pair above the 1.0865 horizontal barrier towards the 1.0885-1.0890 region. Continued buying beyond the 1.0900 level should allow bulls to aim back towards retesting the multi-month peak, around the mid-1.0900s.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
NFP/USDT: READY FOR AN ATH! 6X FROM HERE!!Hey everyone! If you're enjoying this analysis, a thumbs up and follow would be greatly appreciated! NFP looks good here. Forming a falling wedge-like structure in the daily time frame confirms its deviation below the trendline and gets back inside the wedge which is a bullish scenario. Buy some now and add more in the dip. Entry range:- $0.28-$0.31 Targets:- $0.43/$0.58/$0.76/$1.12/$1.44/$1.84 SL:- $0.20 What are your thoughts on NFP's current price action? Do you see a bullish pattern? Share your analysis in the comments below!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
Gold (XAUUSD) supports and resists with volume combinations.Gold (XAUUSD) supports and resists volume combinations. As of recently, I have marked the major zone of 2290 as a major support and supply zone from where the price rejected 5 times and marked the zone as a valid point for but. After the market touches the 2450 zone on May 19, 2024, the price falls and wipes out the buyer to their supply zone of 2290, and after some consolidation periods and a market range at 2320 to 2340 on Friday on NFP, the market will break its previous June high of 2387. Now the market trends look bullish after 2387 zone confirmations, and the price targets will be 2410 and 2450, but for that, we need strong bullish volume with confirmation candles.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Bloom_Forex_Official
USD/CAD steady as job growth falls in Canada, USThe Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3618, up 0.05% on the day. Canada and the US released employment data today and surprisingly, the Canadian dollar has showed almost no reaction. Canada’s labor market contracted in June, with a decrease of 1.4 thousand. This follows a gain of 26.7 thousand in May and was well below the market estimate of a 22.5 thousand gain. The unemployment rate rose to 6.4%, up from 6.2% in May and higher than the market estimate of 6.3%. At the same time, wage growth climbed 5.6% in June, up from 5.2% and the 5.3% market estimate. The Bank of Canada will be pleased with the weaker job data but the sharp increase in wages could complicate plans to lower interest rates. The BoC cut rates in June for the first time since March 2020, the first major central bank to do so. The Bank wants to see a further cooling of the economy and lower inflation before it feels confident delivering a second rate cut. The US economy added 206 thousand jobs in June, beating the market estimated of 190 thousand. The May reading was revised sharply lower from an initial 272 thousand and the April data was also revised lower. This indicates that the labor market is weakening and could set up a quarter-point rate cut in September. Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about shifting rate policy and have stressed that a rate cut will have to wait until they are confident that inflation will continue to move sustainably towards the 2% target. New York Fed President John Williams echoed this stance on Friday, saying that the Fed had lowered inflation significantly but “we still have a way to go to reach our 2% target on a sustained basis”. The Fed may be in a cautious mood but the markets are becoming more confident of a September cut. The odds have risen to 72% following today’s employment release, up from 68% immediately before the release and just 58% one week ago, according to the CME’s FedWatch. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3621. Above, there is resistance at 1.3656 There is support at 1.3600 and 1.3586
by OANDA
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Before we start, remember, the trade comes after the event, let them move the price to where they want and then look for a set up to get in. We’ve highlighted the key levels this time with the potential path due to the range being so big, and yes, we’re still in the range believe it or not! So, for that reason, we have the extreme level of support below 2340-45 and below that 2335 which is also our bias level. If targeted and held, a bounce here could be on the cards with a move to continue upside and higher up. This is a key level, if broken, we complete the move downside again more likely to target the 2320 region, so please play caution. Our ideal scenario here is for them to take the price upside, first level of importance 2380-85 which needs to break for us to go higher and target the 2400 level which will then give us the extreme level 2405-10 which is where we feel the stretch can go and that’s where the ideal short will come from, most probably next week. It’s a difficult one to navigate but the range is still in play and the extreme levels are worth taking note if there is huge volume and a curve ball. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
Gold Analysis Ahead of NFP Report: Will it Fall ? (READ CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we observe that the price is trading around $2364 and is close to the supply zone of $2369 to $2387. Today, we have the NFP report being released, and if the actual figures exceed the forecasted numbers, we are likely to see the dollar index strengthen, leading to a potential drop in gold prices. In case of a decline, the potential targets would be $2350, $2342, $2337, and $2318, respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
18
AUD/USD: One of better options for US dollar bearsThe AUD/USD is the one to watch in the event we see a negative dollar reaction to today's US jobs report, which is due for release shortly. A headline print of 191K is expected, but watch out for revisions to prior months' data too. AUD/USD's recent performance points higher The AUD/USD has been performing well due to strong Australian inflation and a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It reached its highest level since January due to weaker-than-expected US data this week, which fueled speculation about a potential Fed rate cut in September. Boost from Recent Data: - Retail Sales: Increased by 0.6% month-over-month (m/m), surpassing the expected 0.3%. - Building Approvals: Rose by 5.5% m/m, beating the forecasted 1.5%. Inflation and Rate Hikes: - Australia's latest inflation report showed a significant rise to 4.0% year-over-year (y/y), higher than the expected 3.8% and April's 3.6%. - This has led investors to speculating over a 50% chance of another rate hike by the RBA, while expectations for a US rate cut are increasing. AUD/USD Technical Analysis: - The AUD/USD had been consolidating in a bullish continuation pattern near its highs. - It recently broke out of this to reach its best level since January. If this breakout holds after NFP then a potential rise towards bigger resistance in the 0.6850-0.6900 range could get underway - The line in the sand for me is at 0.6620, break below would be a bearish technical development Trading Outlook: - The combination of strong fundamentals and positive technical signals makes AUD/USD an attractive pair to trade on the long side, especially if US data continues to weaken. - This pair is potentially a better long candidate compared to others like EUR/USD, which has election risks, or JPY/USD (I know, I know, it is USD/JPY), which faces potential government intervention. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom
Pre NFP Analysis5th July (NFP day) DXY: Consolidating on 105 support, If NFP is weaker, could trade down to 104.65. Stronger NFP, DXY needs to break 105.40 before considered bullish NZDUSD: Buy 0.6150 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.67 SL 20 TP 75 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Buy 161.15 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2790 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.0850 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY weakness) USDCHF: Sell 0.8960 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3625 SL 25 TP 75 (CAD weakness, DXY strength) Gold: Break above 2370 could trade up to 2390 (DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai