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Gold | News Review and Its Impact on Gold MarketUS Labor Market Data Preview - Friday, April 5, 2024 To analyze the market's reaction to today's NFP data, it's crucial to review past market events. The Federal Reserve needs two conditions to ease interest rates: 1) Continued downtrend in inflation 2) Weakening labor market. Therefore, today's NFP data is the most critical news release. Previous NFP Data: Non-farm payroll: 275K new jobs Average hourly earnings: 0.1% (4.3% y/y) Unemployment rate: 3.9% Based on these figures, 60% of economists and investors believe the Fed will start cutting rates from June. NFP Forecasts: Various forecasting models, considering ISM Services Index, Manufacturing, ADP, and 4-week moving average of jobless claims, predict NFP to be between 200K and 250K jobs. Crucial Data Point: Contrary to popular belief, today's key data is not the total NFP figure but rather the change in the number of employed persons (Employed) last month and the number of people who wanted to be in the labor force but could not find a job (Unemployed). Last month, the number of employed persons decreased by 184K from January, while the number of unemployed persons increased by 334K, leading to a 0.2% rise in the unemployment rate. Technical Analysis for Gold: Personal Opinion: I am bullish on gold, and today's news is likely to support gold prices. Expected Price Movement: I anticipate a move to the 2285 support level followed by a strong upward move towards 2305 and 2330. Key Resistance: 2305 - 2310 and 2325 - 2330 Key Support: 2282 - 2285 and 2272 - 2277 Please note: This trend could change based on today's news. Additional Considerations: Inflation: If inflation remains stubbornly high, it could pressure the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting gold's upside potential. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions could boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Real Interest Rates: Rising real interest rates could make gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets. Overall, today's NFP data and other economic indicators will play a significant role in shaping gold's short-term direction. Traders should carefully monitor market news and data releases to make informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by uPaSKaL
29
Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pauseThe euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 4% for a fifth straight time on Thursday, as expected. Interest rates remain at record levels but Lagarde & Co. provided fresh hints that policy makers are looking to lower rates at the June meeting. The economic background appears favorable for a rate cut. Eurozone inflation has dropped to 2.4%, close to the 2% target and the economy is barely growing. ECB members, including those with more hawkish views, have been hinting at a June rate cut. The ECB statement echoed this view, saying if its confidence increases that inflation is moving towards the target “in a sustained manner”, then a rate cut would be appropriate. At her press conference, ECB President Lagarde noted that several members had voted in favor of a rate cut on Thursday. Lagarde added that the ECB could make a cut even if inflation remained above 2%, if the ECB was confident that inflation was moving in the right direction. It’s a very different story in the US, where the Federal Reserve is dealing with a surprisingly strong US economy. March nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations and US inflation climbed to 3.5%, up from 3.2% and above the forecast of 3.4%. Fed members are sounding hawkish and the markets have slashed rate cut expectations. After the hot US inflation report, Boston Fed President Collins said that the Fed may need to cut rates less than previously expected and New York Fed President Williams said there was “no clear need to adjust policy in the very near term”. The markets have lowered the odds of a June cut to just 24%, compared to 54% a week ago. A September cut was priced in at 91% a week ago but that has dropped to 72%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0651. Below, there is support at 1.0597 1.0749 and 1.0813 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Brent Crude Oil Demand Spike(WTICOUSD, too)Looking forward to entering Long on BCOUSD after NFP today. Am not too eager to enter, if it happens, its good. If it doesn't happen, I am fine too, since today is Friday, and I have to hold my positions over the weekends. I am used to holding trades over the weekends, however I prefer the weekdays. Therefore, when Mondays roll around, I thank God its Monday! Anyway, our discounted price zone is the 10EMA based on previous Black Friday Sale discounts offered. Price made a kink in the 10EMA discount by offering 20EMA discount yesterday or so, however, I do not believe it would continue giving 20EMA discounts which is bigger discounts, because, the Flag Pole is very big and long, while the flag is minute. As usual, I am very aggressive at cutting losses, and moving my stop loss towards Breakeven and into profits. Once the trade is in, I will immediately shift my stoploss upwards by one tenth of the SL size, because my intention is never to price hit my full R loss. I am wrong many a times, by being too aggressive at cutting losses, moving my stop loss forward, etc and price continues to go in my favour after I am out of the trade, however, the results does show that I am profitable, and so, I will continue with my new ways. I began doing such aggressive SL shifting earlier this year at around February, and it has been profits for me ever since, week on week. 2002SGT 05042024
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
THE KOG REPORT - NFP (Are we going higher?)The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve done well on Gold so this NFP we’re really not looking for get involved in the play unless we see price approach extreme levels! We’ve managed a long, we’ve managed a short but with this move, it’s likely we’re going to see some stop loss hunt activations and swings in both directions, so please play defence. We have the immediate resistance levels above 2305-8 which if targeted and held would be the first reaction point we can see on the chart, that’s if the support level 2270-65 manages to hold up the price on the release. Ideally, we want to see that level above break higher and tap into that extreme level above 2230-37 which is where, if we see a decent set up and clean reversal, we feel the opportunity to short the market will come from. On the flip, looking below, again the support level 2270-65 could be the swoop, and if broken, we will be looking to hold any runners from above down into the 2230-35 region and below that 2220-25 as per the KOG Report on Sunday where, if price is held, supported and we see a clean set up, we feel an opportunity to long the market again is on the cards. It’s a simple one this time, not going to risk getting into the market for cheap pips with the way they have been behaving lately. Look for the extreme levels or stay away and come back on Monday. Remember, the trade comes after the event! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
NFP Ahead! Planning for potential setupsApril 5th DXY: Could see higher NFP, but DXY might weaken, break 104 support, trade down to 103.70 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6035 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6605 SL 20 TP 45 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 151.80 SL 25 TP 90 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2605 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Buy 1.0885 SL 25 TP 55 (DXY weakness) USDCHF: Sell 0.8990 SL 30 TP 90 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3535 SL 20 TP 45 (CAD weakness, DXY strength) Gold: Look for reaction at 2305
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Strifor || GOLD-NFPPreferred direction: SELL Comment: For gold , we previously gave two setups for sell, and one of them is already in work (scenario №2) . However, against the background of the upcoming potential volatility (NFP) , as well as the short-term weakening of the US dollar , most likely, it is at the very moment of the release of data on the US labor market that we will see a new maximum for gold in the region of 2350 . It is in this area that we are considering an additional level for entry into short (scenario №1) . This scenario is the most likely in the near future. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
5
Strifor || GBPUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British pound also remains on the buy list. Here, the expected movement for the current NFP is the same as for the euro . Growth is expected towards the level of 1.27000 , where local resistance will occur. The target is not set above this area (quite an aggressive option). But one can consider potential sales when generating a signal. We do not exclude the possibility that a potential downward reversal will already occur at the beginning of next week. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: At the beginning of the coming week, the buy-priority for the euro remains. The previous week showed nothing in terms of volatility. The coming week is expected to be hot, and reasons for volatility can be found in the economic calendar. As before, the main target for medium-term growth is the level of 1.09000 . Scenario №1 assumes maximum growth from current prices, but we do not exclude scenario №2 with a short-term fall towards the level of 1.07500 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || AUDUSD-Mid-term viewPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The aggressive behavior of buyers of the American currency forced the prices of the main competitors of the USD to decline at the beginning of the week. This affected the euro and pound to a greater extent, but the currencies of the Pacific region also sank. Nevertheless, we continue to adhere to the buy priority in the medium term, especially since we previously did not exclude another potential drawdown. AUDUSD long is considered according to two main scenarios. Less likely, scenario №2 assumes growth from current prices, while scenario №1 assumes growth after a slight downward drawdown. It should be noted that purchases according to scenario №2 are already active, and continuing to accumulate a long position is a good step for today. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD? NFP preview: Trading S&P or GBPUSD? US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated on multiple occasions that a tight labor market acts as a deterrent to lowering interest rates. Which is why this month's NFP data release should be interesting. This Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show an addition of 200,000 new jobs. Since Feb 2023, data has consistently hovered between 300K and 150K. Many of these initial readings were subsequently revised downwards. Nevertheless, at the time, they significantly reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and, most recently, bolstered the dollar. Traders anticipated ~6 rate cuts at the beginning of the year, but now will be content if the Fed reduces rates three times. However, even three rate cuts are dubious, given that most recent US data has exceeded expectations. This Monday, the ISM manufacturing index turned positive for the first time since October 2022. If the NFP data surpasses expectations, GBP/USD could become an attractive trade. In the event of a soft NFP reading, attention could shift to the S&P, which would have a window to rebound before major banks commence reporting their latest earnings. GBP/USD has remained trapped within a rectangular pattern for almost 100 days now, potentially indicating some strong boundaries to take note of for a range trade. The pair currently sits in the lower half of the range. The jobs data on Friday could heavily influence Wall Street's sentiment, potentially determining whether the market remains overall bullish or requires even more of a corrective move. The 5200 level could be pivotal. It has previously acted as resistance and now functions as support. Even if a breakdown occurs below this level, support could be anticipated at the 5100 level or the 50-day SMA.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets
Strifor || NZDUSD-Mid-term viewPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The New Zealand dollar almost completely copies the situation with the Australian dollar . Here, we also continue to adhere to buy-priority in the medium term. It should be noted that both of these currencies are currently having the best setup for buy among others majors, but even this does not exclude potential short-term weakening. This probability is precisely described on the graph in the framework of scenario №1 , which is more likely at the moment, but scenario №2 is also already in the works. Just like in AUDUSD , we continue to accumulate long positions with a medium-term target at the level of 0.60713. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
🔥 XAU/USD - new ATH recorded , What's NEXT ? (READ THE CAPTION)Important Caption : By examining the gold chart, we can see that the price faced selling pressure after entering the supply range of $2212 to $2222 and was able to fall to $2202. After the price reached this level, it faced demand pressure and was able to It grew up to $2236 and recorded a new ATH and finally closed at $2233 on the last trading day of last week! Today, due to the fact that the majority of the market was closed, but the price increased again to $2265! Now the price is trading in the range of $2248 and we have to see when we can finally see more correction of gold! Gold is breaking records these days! In addition, this week we will have the NFP statistics, which can have an important impact on the gold trend! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
GBP/USD edges lower, UK employment nextThe British pound has started the trading week in negative territory. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2807, down 0.39%. The pound has posted six straight winning days and climbed 1.56% last week against the US dollar. The UK releases the employment report on Tuesday. The labor market has remained resilient even with the steep rise in interest rates, and the new measure for employment data has indicated that the labour market is stronger than previously thought. For instance, the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 stood at 3.8%, compared to 4.2% under the old measure. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.8% in the first quarter. We could see a large drop in job growth, with an estimate of 10,000 for Q4, compared to 72,000 in Q3. Wage growth has been dropping steadily and is expected to tick lower to 5.7% y/y including bonuses, down from 5.8% in the third quarter. The Bank of England will be keeping a close eye on the employment release. The BoE meets on March 21 and Governor Bailey has eased up on his pushback against rate cut expectations. If Tuesday’s employment numbers are stronger than expected, it will likely raise the odds of a rate cut later this year. In the US, Friday’s employment release was a mix. Job growth remained strong as nonfarm payrolls rose 275,000, easily beating the market estimate of 200,000 and the downwardly revised 229,000 in January. However, the unemployment rate surprised by climbing to 3.9% after holding at 3.7% for three consecutive months, which was also the market estimate. This was the highest unemployment rate in two years and points to softer labor market conditions. The rise in the unemployment rate has raised the odds of a rate cut in June by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the likelihood of a cut is 71%, compared to 64% just one week ago, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. There is resistance at 1.2902 and 1.2945 GBP/USD pushed below support at 1.2852 and is testing support at 1.2809
by OANDA
Special Guest Intro / March NFP Top-Down Analysis 🎨Hello Traders! Today we were fortunate enough to have the ShrewdCatFx Illustrator make an appearance on the Air. Yes, it is that time of the month for NFP data! 0:0 Special Guest & Monthly Timeframe/NFP Expectations 2:32 Weekly Timeframe 3:43 Daily Timeframe 6:20 4Hr timeframe 8:27 1Hr Timeframe Numbers are expected to decrease over the prior period but growth is expected overall as 198K jobs are forecasted to have been created in February. The figure from ADP on Wednesday missed expectations slightly as 149K was expected and 140K was the actual figure. If the data tomorrow is better/more than 198K, then I'm anticipating a partial retracement of the increase we've observed so far this week. (Up 120 Pips this week) If the Data is close to what is forecasted (198K) or falls short of that number, then I anticpate a strong continuation move to the upside towards 1.09729 Daily Level and 1.09828 4Hr Zone. We may even moon towards the Monthly level 1.105. Otherwise, favorable numbers will cause a retracement (as previously mentioned) back towards 1.09039 4Hr Zone and 1.08834 Daily Level.
by ShrewdCatfx
THE KOG REPORT - NFP 08/03/24 The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. For today’s NFP we’re going to keep the chart and idea clean and only look for extreme levels. Our daily bias and weekly bias targets are complete, yesterday we posted a higher level for our team and that was also completed this morning. So now, we have the following levels in mind: Resistance levels: 2173-5 and above that 2180-85. These levels we feel if price attacks could give us a reaction in price if rejected and not broken. For that reason, a test on the level is potentially available but we wouldn’t really want to long up into these levels unless we get a very deep pullback! Support levels: 2150-47 unless broken can take us up into those levels before a reaction, however, with the volume that enters the markets, it can make this a difficult trade. Hence, the levels below 2140-44 can then bring us back into the order region to then start a small range. Below that have 2130, which if attacked is our ideal level for a tap and bounce, but only for the scalp. Price breaks above the higher resistance, we're not interested and will come back next week. We’re very likely not going to be trading this event, rather watching and letting the price settle before we decide on our move. It can be volatile and extreme and we need you to understand, if they break above that 2085 level they’re going to complete the structure without any pullbacks. New traders and those less experienced, please stay out of the markets, money in your account is a position in the markets! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
7
Pre-NFP AnalysisMarch 8th Non Farm Employment Change Scenarios DXY: Look for reaction at 103 resistance level. Strong NFP (>250k) : DXY break through and climb to 103.70 Weak NFP (<140k): DXY reject and drop to 201.10 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6155 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength) AUDUSD: Buy 0.6655 SL 25 TP 70 (DXY weakness) USDJPY: Sell 147.50 SL 40 TP 145 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2765 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.0905 SL 30 TP 75 or Buy 1.10 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY weakness) USDCHF: Sell 0.8765 SL 20 TP 40 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3455 SL 25 TP 85 (DXY strength) Gold: Could retrace down to 2126, bounce higher to 2175
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai