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🧭💡 Dollar Dynamics: Sideways Awaits Feds/ I wait for the NFP !Hey traders, the FX Professor here, addressing the buzz: Why the silence on the dollar? Let's dive into the dollar index's sideways dance, a chart that speaks volumes! Our journey has been stellar, riding the long wave from the year 2020, then nailing the short with the iconic 'I scream, you scream, and Joe Biden short' in October 2022. Currently, we're in a holding pattern, eyes fixed on the Federal Reserve. Will they begin to ease? My take: quite likely, with elections on the horizon. Yet, they need compelling data to pivot, and that's where our focus shifts to Forex pairs, gold, and silver. It all kickstarts with the NFP this Friday. While some eyes are on the Fed's Wednesday address, I suspect they'll play it close to the vest, holding off on major reveals. Friday's NFP could be the catalyst for change if it delivers the data the Fed needs to start slashing interest rates. With inflation talk taking a backseat, the spotlight turns to jobs and GDP. It's time to tune into the dollar index, prime our Forex accounts, because we're on the cusp of an exciting year teeming with volatility. The stage is set, and the anticipation is high. Join me this Friday on TradingView for live trading action as we embrace the volatility head-on. Let the games begin! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Get ready for a volatile year and join the live trading action on TradingView: 🎢📈 NFP Trading Extravaganza: Ride the Volatility Wave with FX Professor! 🚀 Prepare for an exhilarating adventure into the heart of the financial markets! NFP day is my playground, and I absolutely revel in the twists and turns of volatility it brings. Link: www.tradingview.com
TVC:DXY
by FX_Professor
#NFP/USDT 2h (ByBit) Falling broadening wedge breakoutNFPrompt looks good for bullish continuation after regaining 200MA support, it also has formed a morning star on 4h TF. ⚡️⚡️ #NFP/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: ByBit USDT Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (2.0X) Amount: 5.4% Current Price: 0.6873 Entry Targets: 1) 0.6853 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.9377 Stop Targets: 1) 0.5588 Published By: @Zblaba NEWCONNECT:NFP BYBIT:NFPUSDT.P #AI #NFT nfprompt.io Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +73.7% Possible Loss= -36.9% Estimated Gaintime= 3-6 days
Long
by TradingOn
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-05/01/2024 (NFP)Preferred direction: BUY Comment: As we know today, the first NFP this year. However, we also expect data on the US labor market from Canada. If for other instruments we expect a short-term fall in the American currency based on the technical picture, then in the case of this currency pair, not everything is so clear. The main reason, of course, is the same economic data on strength that we are waiting for from Canada today. Before all these important events (which will likely serve as a trigger for movement), a good breakout setup has been formed. Therefore, it is preferable to consider long-deals. As in most cases, we are considering two scenarios now. And given such a rich news background, it is better to use two at once with a common stop loss (we carefully consider and do not forget about risk management). The target for this trade is no higher than 1.34500. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
USD/JPY edges lower ahead of Tokyo Core CPIThe Japanese yen has started the week with slight gains and is trading at 144.39 in the European session, up 0.16%. It was a rough week for the yen, which declined 2.5% against the US dollar, which has looked sharp against most of the majors since New Year's. US nonfarm payrolls ended 2023 on a strong note. The economy added 216,000 jobs in December, compared to November's downwardly revised 173,000 and above the estimate of 170,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, below the estimate of 3.8%. As well, wage growth rose 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y, higher than the estimates of 0.3% and 3.9%. The employment report was stronger than expected, which could lead the Fed to delay plans to lower rates. Job growth remains resilient and the wage growth data indicates that inflation remains strong in the labour market and is still too high for the Fed. The Fed fund futures markets reacted to the employment report by lowering the odds of a March rate cut to 64%, compared to 68% just prior to the employment report. The Fed has acknowledged that it plans to trim rates but failed to provide any details of timing in the minutes of the December meeting. The Fed may decide to prolong the pause in rates until the second half of the year unless there is a significant drop in inflation or unforeseen weakness in the US economy. The Fed does not seem in any rush to cut rates and the markets may be getting ahead of themselves by pricing an initial rate cut in March. Japan's Tokyo Core CPI, which will be released on Tuesday, is expected to ease in December to 2.1% y/y, compared to 2.3% in November. Core inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 18 straight months, but the central bank has insisted that it will not tighten monetary policy until wage growth rises. 144.80 and 145.80 are the next resistance lines There is support at 143.60 and 142.63
by OANDA
Gold Puzzles: ISM Downturn, NFP Beats, and Thurday's CPI.In today's trading session, our attention is directed towards XAUUSD, where we're eyeing a buying opportunity around the 2008 zone. Gold, emblematic of a broader uptrend, currently finds itself in a correction phase, steadily approaching the key trend at the 2008 support and resistance area. This technical perspective serves as our initial guide. Diving into the specifics, the recent ISM figures revealed a notable downturn, falling from the forecasted 52.5 to the actual 50.6, signaling a slower expansion in the manufacturing sector than anticipated. This unexpected contraction has cast a shadow on the US economic outlook. Coupled with the recently released NFP data, where the actual job gains surpassed both the forecast (184k) and the previous (150k), a nuanced economic landscape is emerging. This intricate scenario, where manufacturing lags while employment gains outpace expectations, introduces a level of uncertainty. The mixed signals within the labor market further underline the potential for a dovish Fed. Adding to this equation, the CPI data becomes a pivotal factor. In this intricate dance of numbers, the potential for a softer CPI reading aligns with the narrative of a cautious Federal Reserve. Now, weaving these numbers into the fabric of our analysis, the combination of weak ISM figures, strong NFP job gains, and the prospect of a softer CPI contributes to the argument for USD shorts. As we traverse the complex economic landscape, gold emerges as a candidate for potential upside movements amid the increasing likelihood of USD weakness. Stay vigilant, Joe, and trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
4
⚡️Strifor || USDCHF-05/01/2024 (NFP)Preferred direction: SELL Comment: This currency pair most likely also forms a setup that is not in favor of the dollar. Here, we also expect a short-term fall in the American currency. As we see, before the NFP , the price began to accumulate before reaching the resistance level of 0.85696. In general, pushing the price to the level is a sign of a breakout, but here we have not reached the level, so we have the possibility of a false breakout or simply a rebound, which is less likely. Therefore, the priority scenario is precisely a false breakdown of the level of 0.85696 , and then a short-term fall towards 0.84500. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-05/01/2024 (NFP)Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The US dollar's main competitors are likely preparing to strengthen in the short term. The news background can contribute to this. The focus is, of course, on NFP . The market may not yet have recovered sufficiently after the holidays, and it is the NFP that can finally do this. Technically, the AUDUSD currency pair is looking long, probably even the best at the moment. The price has entered the limit buyer area, and the likelihood that he will defend this area is high. We are considering two scenarios, and, given today’s NFP , it is best to use it immediately with a general stop loss below support 0.66659 . It is necessary to take into account that scenario 2 is the formation of a false breakout, so stop loss should be taken with a margin. We place the growth target at 0.68399. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
🔥 XAU/USD - NFP's effect on the GOLD price (READ THE CAPTION)Well, as you can see, yesterday, gold was able to grow up to $2051, and after that, the price dropped again, and it is currently trading in the range of $2038! We have to see whether the NFP statistics will be announced today more than expected or less! If the actual rate is announced higher than the forecast, we will see a heavy fall in gold, and otherwise, gold will move to higher targets again! My first scenario is that gold will see lower targets like $2031 and $2020 in the short term! Be careful of extreme market movements and minimize your risk! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
34
THE KOG REPORT - NFP:KOG REPORT – NFP: This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. For todays report we’re going to use the same levels as the KOG Report published on Sunday but we’re going to use the hourly chart for our projections and illustrations of the potential movement to come. We can see so far this year, although only a few days in, we’re seeing quite a move to the downside on the metals so this NFP entails caution. We have our key level support here at 2030-35 order region as shown on the KOG Report which has given a temporary bounce. Below that we have 2025-7 which, if we see an extension of the move and is held, we feel will lead the price to target the higher order region 2050-55 and above that 2062-5 where we will then need to assess the price action and potentially look for a short back down to break the 2035 level. On the flip, if they take the price upside, which we’re thinking will happen, then 2050-55 and above that 2060-62 are possible targets for the longs with extension into the 2075-80 region where we may see a reaction in price. Going to keep is short this time, we’re too early in the year to even think about long term positions and would rather wait for next week to resume normal business. Please take this report as a guide only. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
Gold price posts modest gains, lacks bullish conviction as trade Gold price posts modest gains, lacks bullish conviction as traders keenly await US NFP 5 January 2024 •Gold price attracts some haven flows on Friday amid geopolitical risks and China’s economic woes. •Reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed cap any further gains for the XAU/USD. •Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the key US monthly jobs report (NFP). Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks follow-through as traders keenly await the release of the crucial monthly employment details from the United States (US). The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions amid the uncertainty about the timing of when the rate-cutting cycle might begin and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal. Heading into the key data risk, investors continue to pare their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed in the wake of Thursday's upbeat US macro data. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to hold steady just below a near three-week low touched on Wednesday and caps gains for the non-yielding Gold price. That said, a softer risk tone is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains supported by the prevalent risk-off mood •Geopolitical risks, along with China's economic woes, continue to weigh on investors' sentiment and offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price on Friday. •The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield holds steady near 4.0% amid reduced bets for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and caps the XAU/USD. •Traders trimmed expectations on the number of rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 to four from six on Wednesday following the release of the upbeat US macro data. •The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Thursday that US private-sector employers added 164K jobs in December as against 115K expected. •Adding to this, a report published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed that Weekly Jobless Claims fell more than expected, to 202K last week. •The US Dollar bulls, meanwhile, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the closely-watched official US monthly jobs data. •The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 170K new jobs in December vs 199K in the previous month. •The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher to 3.8% from 3.7%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is seen easing to 3.9% YoY rate from 4.0% in November. •The crucial employment figures could guide the Fed's near-term policy outlook, which will influence the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding metal. Technical Analysis: Gold price needs to move beyond $2,050 barrier for bulls to seize control From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $2,050-$2,048 region. The said area should now act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders, which if cleared should lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,064-2,065 zone. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are still holding in the positive territory, the upward trajectory could get extended further towards the $2,077 region en route to the $2,100 round figure. On the flip side, the weekly swing low, around the $2,030 zone, seems to protect the immediate downside. This is followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the $2,011-2,010 region, and the $2,000 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for the resumption of the downtrend witnessed over the past week or so.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sniper_2022
Pre NFP Livestream January 5th (NFP) DXY: NFP data above 170k close to 200k, could climb to 103.50 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6245 SL 25 TP 50 (DXY Weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6650 SL 20 TP 95 (Hesistation at 0.66) (DXY strength) USDJPY: Buy 145.25 SL 50 TP 120 (DXY Strength) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2730 SL 20 TP 85 (DXY Weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.0880 SL 25 TP 100 (DXY Strength) USDCHF: Buy 0.8550 SL 25 TP 100 (DXY Strength) USDCAD: Buy 1.3410 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY Strength & CAD Weakness) Gold: Test and reject 2048 to trade down to 2032
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Binance Launches $NFP Perpetual Contract Amid $NFP Price RallyBinance Futures launched the USD-M NFP Perpetual Contract on December 27, 2023, providing traders with the opportunity to engage in perpetual trading with up to 50x leverage. The underlying asset, NFPrompt (NFP), would be settled in USDT via this perpetual contract. The update comes after NFP’s listing on Binance after it made its market debut on Wednesday. NFP Price Today The recent developments marked a turning point for the NFPrompt team and propelled the NFP crypto price to gain. The NFP price added 1.39% to its value and traded at $1.188369 at press time. The crypto registered a high of $1.23 during the trading session. Moreover, the NEWCONNECT:NFP market capitalization increased by 0.58% to $294.38 million. Whilst, the day’s trade volume was recorded at $277.39 million, which is an impressive figure for a new entrant in the crypto space. The current circulating supply of NFP stands at 250 million tokens, which is 25% of the total supply of 1 billion tokens.
BINANCE:NFPUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
EURUSD in on the way finding breakoutAs my analysis for EURUSD, The price stuck on the weekly support which highlighted based on the chart. The Weekly trend still in bullish position but still find out the direction either down or more higher for long term position. As the US want to keep their monetary policy, keep going fight the inflation, probably, USD will take an advantage to keep them strong. Whatever it is, i will looking for any breakout happen at the current price based on its support and resistance, accompany by the trendline waiting for break or not.
by Lowzeus
1
🔥 XAUUSD : The Fall will Continue ?By checking the gold chart in the daily time frame, we can see that the price according to our expectation was accompanied by a further fall and was able to correct up to $1973! Be careful, this fall will continue only if it stabilizes below the level of 1987$! In this case, the next falling targets will be $1966, $1960 and $1939 respectively! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
EURUSD The trend will be determined after the news (NFP).Hello traders. The trend will be determined after the news (NFP). There are many fluctuations, I think anything can happen. before the news is released and even half an hour after that. If the data is as expected, the dollar will gain strength and the euro can touch 1.066. If the data is weak, everyone is betting on an interest rate cut in the first quarter of next year and even sooner, and the euro could touch 1.1 in next weak. What do you think? Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** Check out my latest analysis on the dollar index.
by Mehdi_Ha
1
Decoding the NFP Report: Trading Strategies.In the dynamic world of forex trading, strategies that cater to the ever-changing market conditions are invaluable. While fundamental analysis is widely embraced in stock trading, its effectiveness in the forex market is often questioned. Unlike the stock market, where financial statements can significantly impact individual stocks, the forex market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including central bank policies and political leadership. In this article, we explore the limitations of fundamental analysis in the forex market and delve into an intriguing momentum trading strategy centered around a key macroeconomic indicator—the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This strategy harnesses the unpredictable yet powerful market reactions triggered by the release of NFP data, offering traders a unique opportunity to capitalize on momentum. Fundamental Analysis in Forex: Fundamental analysis, a staple in stock trading, faces challenges in the forex market due to its limited impact on currency exchange rates. Forex stability relies not only on economic indicators but also on the nuanced decisions of central banks and political leadership. Despite these challenges, successful forex trading doesn't necessitate rigid adherence to a specific scenario. Traders can leverage price momentum and increased liquidity to execute effective impulse trading strategies. Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Strategy: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) trading strategy capitalizes on the release of crucial U.S. economic data—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. This multicurrency strategy is applicable to all currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar, allowing traders to explore numerous assets simultaneously. The primary objective of this strategy is to capture price momentum, making it adaptable to various time frames. Non-Farm Payrolls: Predictable Unpredictability: The NFP report, published every first Friday of the month, serves as a linchpin for speculative traders. It provides insights into the strength and growth of the U.S. economy, consequently influencing the value of the U.S. dollar. The report focuses on the non-agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to the nation's GDP. The sheer importance of the NFP report lies in its ability to reflect the health of the U.S. economy. The release of this data sparks maximum market volatility, with prices witnessing rapid fluctuations, often ranging from 100-200 points in a short period. However, interpreting the aftermath of the news poses a unique challenge due to the simultaneous release of unemployment statistics, which can sometimes contradict each other. Despite the inherent unpredictability, the NFP trading strategy capitalizes on the strong price spikes triggered by the news release. While predicting post-news price behavior may be challenging, the strategy offers a systematic approach to navigate and profit from the volatile market conditions that follow the NFP announcement. Rules of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Trading Strategy: Stay Informed with an Economic Calendar: Use a reliable economic calendar to stay informed about upcoming NFP releases. The economic calendar will help you track the scheduled date and time of the NFP report. Check for News Release Postponements: Understand that postponements of data releases are common in economic calendars. Monitor the calendar regularly to stay updated on any changes to the scheduled release time of the NFP report. Utilize a Trusted Economic Calendar: Choose a reputable economic calendar platform to ensure accurate and timely information. The provided link www.tradingview.com can be a valuable resource for tracking economic events. Prepare for High Volatility: Recognize that the release of the NFP report triggers significant market volatility. Prepare for rapid price movements and be cautious about entering trades during the initial moments following the release. Focus on the Non-Agricultural Sector Employment Data: Prioritize the non-agricultural sector employment data within the NFP report. This indicator is crucial for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy and can have a substantial impact on currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar. Monitor Unemployment Statistics: Simultaneously track unemployment statistics released alongside the NFP report. While the primary focus is on non-agricultural employment, an understanding of unemployment trends can provide additional context for market reactions. Be Cautious of Contradictory Data: Acknowledge that data within the NFP report, especially non-agricultural employment and unemployment figures, may occasionally present contradictory signals. Exercise caution during such instances, as market predictability diminishes. Wait for Initial Volatility to Subside: Post NFP release, wait for the initial surge in volatility to subside before considering trade entries. Initial reactions can be impulsive, and waiting allows for a more informed decision-making process. Consider Multiple Currency Pairs: Since the NFP report influences the U.S. dollar, the strategy can be applied to various currency pairs involving the dollar. Explore multiple pairs simultaneously to identify the most favorable trading opportunities. Implement Risk Management: Prioritize risk management strategies to protect your trading capital. Set stop-loss orders and determine the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account size. Practice on Demo Accounts: Before implementing the NFP trading strategy in live markets, practice on demo accounts to familiarize yourself with the dynamics of the strategy and refine your execution. Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Stay informed about changes in market conditions and continuously adapt your strategy. The forex market evolves, and traders need to adjust their approaches based on ongoing developments. By adhering to these rules, traders can enhance their effectiveness when employing the Non-Farm Payrolls trading strategy and navigate the unique challenges posed by this high-impact economic event. Traders often seek strategies to capitalize on this volatility, and one popular approach is the Pending Orders strategy. In this article, we'll explore the intricacies of the Pending Orders strategy , shedding light on its advanced nature and its application by both novice and experienced traders. 1 ) Pending Orders Strategy: Set Buy Stop and Sell Stop Orders: Minutes before the NFP publication, set two pending orders: Buy Stop and Sell Stop. These orders are strategically placed 25-30 points away from the current price to avoid simultaneous triggering due to heightened volatility. Manage Triggered Orders: When the price reacts to the news release, triggering one of the pending orders, promptly delete the other as a non-operational scenario. This prevents both orders from activating simultaneously. As observed in this image, during the latest NFP event on Friday, December 8, 2023, the price exhibited a robust bearish impulse immediately after the report release at 5:30 pm. This triggered our sell stop pending order, shifting our trade into a profitable position. Following the bearish movement, the strategy aims to close the buy stop position (the opposite direction). At this juncture, traders should take proactive measures to manage the open position. Stop Loss Considerations: Place a Stop Loss in the opposite order or opt not to set it at all, provided the second pending order remains intact to limit potential losses. This ensures that the remaining order acts as a safeguard against adverse market movements. Trailing Stop for Profit Maximization: Implement a Trailing Stop to secure profits. Continuously adjust the Trailing Stop as the price advances, allowing you to capitalize on the maximum price momentum. This dynamic approach helps lock in gains while navigating the evolving market conditions. As depicted in the image, the price, after experiencing a bearish movement, rebounds upward. What could be the reason behind this? The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report assesses the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous month. For this specific event, the forecasted unemployment rate was 3.9%. However, the actual percentage revealed in the report was 3.7%, indicating a lower number of individuals unemployed and actively seeking employment in the preceding month. This positive deviation from the forecast serves as a favorable signal for the USD, prompting an upward movement in its value following the event. In currency markets, an 'actual' percentage lower than the 'forecast' is generally considered beneficial for the respective currency. By the way, Short-term trades had the opportunity to secure a few pips in gains after the activation of the Sell Stop order. Strategy N.2 Meanwhile, in this other image, I have marked a vertical line at the recent NFP event. Additionally, I've incorporated a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) to illustrate the short-term trend. After the release of this significant economic news, you can observe an increase in volatility. This could serve as a component of a monthly strategy where the release of such news acts as a trigger. This second scenario or strategy, especially for beginners, is considered much safer. By analyzing the NFP report results, understanding economic dynamics, and gaining insights into the potential continuation of the trend or a possible pause for a reversal, traders can make informed decisions. In conclusion, it's essential to backtest the presented strategies and conduct a forward backtest in a demo account. Your thorough understanding and application of these strategies are crucial. Thank you for taking the time to read my article.
Education
by FOREXN1
3