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EURUSD Back Under PressureHi Traders! EURUSD is now under pressure following the NFP report. Momentum is now back with the US dollar, and further downside momentum looks very likely. Here are the details: The market is trending down following the break and close below the 20 EMA. There is a possibility of the market going back below the 1.07 handle. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 1.07458 Stop Level: 1.07961 Target Level: 1.06453 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly.
Short
by BluetonaFX
9
Pre Non Farm Employment Change Analysis8th December 2023 (NFP EVENT) DXY: Retrace & retest 104 resistance area, next move dependent on NFP. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6130 SL 20 TP 90 (Weaker DXY, Bad NFP) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6585 SL 15 TP 60 (Stronger DXY, Good NFP) USDJPY: Sell 143 SL 35 TP 135 (Weaker DXY) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2515 SL 20 TP 50 (Stronger DXY) EURUSD: Buy 1.0770 SL 20 TP 60 (Weaker DXY) USDCHF: Sell 0.8735 SL 20 TP 50 USDCAD: Sell 1.3535 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: consolidating, DXY weakness to break out above 2043 could trade up to 2070
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
British pound shrugs as Construction PMI misses estimateThe British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2582 in the North American session, down 0.10%. The UK Construction PMI ticked lower to 45.5 in November, compared to 45.6 in October and shy of the consensus estimate of 46.3. The construction sector has been in contraction for most of the year and the November print marked a third straight month in contraction. The weak housing market has resulted in a decrease in house building and chilled activity in the construction industry. There was better news from the UK Services PMI on Tuesday, which was revised higher to 50.9 in November, up from the preliminary estimate of 50.5. The PMI accelerated from the October print of 49.5 and indicated expansion for the first time in four months, with a reading above the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion. The Bank of England has held rates at 5.0% since August, leading to growing speculation that the BoE is done with rate hikes. This has led to expectations of rate cuts in 2024, but Governor Bailey pushed back against such expectations today, stating that interest rates would need to stay at current levels for an "extended period to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis". This was a very clear message that the central bank plans to stick with the "table mountain" approach (higher for longer) and is not considering rate cuts. Inflation fell to 4.6% in October, a sharp drop from the 6.7% gain in decline. Still, that is more than double the 2% target and the BoE is unlikely to trim rates until inflation is significantly lower. In the US, the ADP employment report showed little change in the November report. ADP is not a very reliable indicator for job growth but is nonetheless closely monitored as it precedes nonfarm payrolls by just two days. ADP eased to 103,000 in November, slightly lower than the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and well off the consensus estimate of 130,000. Nonfarm payrolls is expected to rise to 185,000 in November, up from 150,000 in October. There is resistance at 1.2624 and 1.2678 1.2536 and 1.2482 are the next support levels
by OANDA
🔥 XAUUSD : Wanna Know more About ADP ? (READ THE CAPTION)First of all , let's have a look on the TVC:GOLD Chart ! As you can see, based on the latest gold price analysis, we saw that the price, as we expected, was accompanied by a further drop and was able to correct until $2009! In the last 2 days, we saw the price rise to $2149 and then a heavy drop of 1373 pips to the range of $2009! Based on the assumptions of the previous analysis, we expected that if this FALL continues, we will see the price reach $1993 as the first bearish target! As long as the price trades below the specified FVG range, we still expect gold to fall further, but note that there is a liquidity gap in the range of $2040 to $2072, which I expect to be filled in the short term and after If we witness the stabilization of the price below this range, we can expect the price to drop to lower prices such as $1993 and $1939! Now It's Time for analyzinf the ADP news ! What is ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and its effects on the Forex market and Gold Price ? ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an economic indicator that shows the monthly change in the number of employed people in the private and non-farm sector of the US. This indicator is based on the payroll data of about 400,000 private companies and is released two days before the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Therefore, this indicator is considered as a preview of the US labor market situation and can have a significant impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. The impact of ADP data on the Forex market and Gold Price depends on several factors. First, it should be compared with the economists’ forecast. If the ADP data is higher than the forecast, it means a stronger employment growth in the US private sector and a sign of strengthening the US economy. This can increase the probability of interest rate hike by the US central bank (FED) and consequently strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. Conversely, if the ADP data is lower than the forecast, it means a weaker employment growth in the US private sector and a sign of weakening the US economy. This can decrease the probability of interest rate hike by the FED and consequently weaken the US dollar against other currencies. Second, it should be compared with the official NFP report. If both the ADP and NFP data are higher or lower than the forecast, it means a consistency between the two indicators and a similar impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. But if the ADP and NFP data are different from the forecast, it means a discrepancy between the two indicators and a contradictory impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. Generally, the NFP report is more attention-grabbing than the ADP report and can have a stronger impact. Third, it should be compared with the overall market conditions and other economic events. If the market is in a risk-on mode, it means a preference for investing in high-risk and high-return assets such as currencies of strong economies and stocks. In this case, a strong ADP data can stimulate the market and weaken the US dollar. Conversely, if the market is in a risk-off mode, it means a preference for investing in low-risk and low-return assets such as the US dollar and Gold. In this case, a weak ADP data can scare the market and strengthen the US dollar. Of course, it should be noted that the market conditions may change under the influence of other economic events such as political decisions, social movements, health crises, etc. and these factors should also be considered. In summary, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an important economic indicator that can have direct and indirect effects on the Forex market and Gold Price. Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
12
AudNzd weakness is coming...AN should be making a turn down, already showing signs...Watch for it. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
3
TradePlus-Fx|NFP overview💬 GOLD: Review before non-farm. It’s the first Friday of the new month on the calendar, which means the publication of data on the US labor market. In this regard, there are assumptions regarding several trading instruments and how they could potentially behave during the non-framing release. Firstly, let’s slightly refresh the idea of Gold, which retains its parameters, and we expect here mainly a fall. Before the non-farm itself or already at the time of publication, most likely, the metal will rise a little, trying to form a false breakout. However, in general, a fall is expected here towards the level of 1948.160. 💬 EURUSD: The euro is also expected to fall, here the instrument may touch the level of 1.06745 before falling, so we also take this into account when placing a deal. The target for the fall is local lows around 1.05194. 💬 USDCHF: The US dollar is also expected to strengthen for the USDCHF currency pair. Here, by the way, there is already an active buy trade, the stop loss is placed beyond the level of 0.90170. First of all, growth to 0.91092 is expected, then a small volume can be left for potential growth to 0.91475 and higher. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 Unemployment Rate 🇺🇸Non-Farms Payrolls 🇺🇸Unemployment Rate 🇺🇸Services/Composite PMI 🇺🇸ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 🛢US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradePlus-Fx
15
EURUSD 3 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - NFP Day This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Bullish Swing Bullish INT 2. After sweeping the liquidity down there the Swing continuation is solid now for more upside and targeting the Swing High and more. We reacted yesterday from the supply zone that formed to sweep the liquidity but there is a high probability that we will break this zone to target the Swing High. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After the last iBOS, price reacted from 15m Supply that caused the bearish iBOS to facilitate the bullish iBOS pullback. INT Structure holding bullish continue the bullish swing continuation. 3. 4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand zones that can provide potential buys to continue bullish. I don't think that price can pullback all the way down to the 15m demand which is a sign of weakness, instead i'm looking for breaks to the upside from here and continuation today.
by Amr-Sadek
GBP/USD Pullback expected before reaching 1.24Analysis of GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is on the rise towards the 1.2400 level to conclude a trading week that has seen the pair mostly fluctuate around the averages. After the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data came in well below expectations, the British Pound (GBP) has seen a 1.6% increase from Friday's opening bids near 1.2190, and the GBP/USD is up almost 2.5% from the week's lows of 1.2095. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 150,000 in October versus the forecast of 180,000. The US NFP figures fell short of expectations, marking the worst headline figure in nearly three years. The US added 150,000 new jobs in October, missing the market forecast of 180,000 and well below September's figure, which was revised downward from the initial print of 336,000. The failure to meet US employment targets is dragging the US Dollar (USD) lower across the market as investors shift towards risk assets, despite the deteriorating US labor data, which is counterintuitively inspiring investors to move out of safe havens. Weaker US economic data could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reconsider interest rate decisions, as investors look for signs that the Fed may accelerate the program of potential rate cuts. Technical Outlook for GBP/USD: The Sterling's ascent driven by the NFP data is pushing the GBP/USD straight through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), aiming directly for the 1.2400 level and preparing to challenge the 200-day SMA, which is currently moving sideways from 1.2435. GBP/USD has recently oscillated between 1.2300 and 1.2100, and a bearish fallback would see the pair sliding towards multi-month lows around the 1.2000 major level. I personally expect a pullback to around 1.2160, where the price could then reverse to head towards 1.24. Let me know your thoughts, and happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
XAUUSD heading towards 2100 - NFP and Middle East conflict!Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States increased by 150,000 units in October, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the United States last Friday. This figure was below market expectations, which anticipated 180,000 new hires. The September increase, initially recorded at 336,000, was subsequently revised downward to 297,000. During the same period, the unemployment rate inched up from 3.8% to 3.9%, while the labor force participation rate declined from 62.8% to 62.7%. Annual wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly wages, eased to 4.1% from 4.3%. In response to these data, the US Dollar faced significant downward pressure. At the time of writing, the US Dollar index was down 0.6% at 105.55. Evaluating the October employment report, FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam commented: "The data is weak enough to reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, cementing the end of the tightening cycle. This is unfavorable for the US Dollar. The data is neither too weak to push investors into the Greenback nor too cold to diminish profits. For stocks, it's the perfect situation: the economy is not too strong to drive rate hikes, nor too weak to reduce profits. As for gold, the decline in Treasury yields is an advantage, but events in the Middle East are also being observed. Additionally, in the case of gold, an important level at 2010 is noted, which, if breached, could push the price toward 2100. Also, pay attention to the support zone at the 1998 level. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. I wish everyone successful trading, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
USD/CAD steady ahead of Canada, US job reportsThe Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3740, up 0.03%. The week wraps up with US and Canadian employment reports, which could mean volatility from the Canadian dollar during the North American session. The US releases nonfarm payrolls, which had a massive September and crushed expectations with a gain of 336,000. The markets are projecting a modest gain for October, with a market consensus of 170,000. The ADP Employment Change report, which isn’t considered a reliable gauge for nonfarm payrolls but is still closely watched, posted a weak gain of 113,000 in October, well below the market consensus of 150,000 and following the September reading of 89,000. Will nonfarm payrolls follow suit or will we see another hot release? The US dollar has declined against the majors since the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates for a second straight time. Fed Chair Powell tried to sound hawkish and reiterated that rate hikes remain on the table, but the markets are in a dovish mood and believe that rates may have peaked. If the nonfarm employment release follows ADP and misses expectations, it would likely mean the end of the current tightening cycle and I would expect the US dollar to decline after the release. Conversely, a strong non-farm payrolls report would support the Fed's stance that rate hikes remain on the table and would likely translate into strong gains for the US dollar following the release. The Fed will also be keeping an eye on wage growth, a driver of inflation. Wages rose 0.2% m/m in September and the market estimate for October stands at 0.3%. On an annualized basis, wage growth is expected to ease to 4.0% in October, down from 4.2% in September. Canada's employment is projected to ease to 22,500 in October, compared to 63,800 in September, which marked an eight-month high. The labour market has remained strong despite the Bank of Canada's aggressive tightening, and a weak employment reading would boost the case for another pause from the BoC and could weigh on the Canadian dollar. 1.3730 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 1.3660 There is resistance at 1.3805 and 1.3950
by OANDA
Strifor || XAGUSD-NFPPreferred direction: SELL Comment: As we said earlier about gold, the situation for metals in general is more inclined to sell than to buy. Silver is no exception. At the moment, before the non-farm, the price of the metal is pressing towards the support level of 22.66582 and most likely, after a slight increase, the instrument will finally break through this support and the sellers’ target will lie in the support area at 21.80. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Strifor
7
USD Index: Thoughts and Analysis pre-NFP Today's focus: USDX Pattern – Range /Distribution? Support – 105.50 - 106 Resistance – 106.75 - 107.05 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDX on the daily chart. Today, we have run over the USDX as price continues to trade range-bound after a choppy week and mixed influences. The FOMC failed to boost the USD after rates remained on hold, and comments pushed it lower on fears we could contnue to see further holds. With this in mind, we have started to look at the possibility of distribution creeping in. Could we see a new move lower to test or break support? Could a miss in today's NFP data add to the USD woes and contnue to push seller momentum in the short term? Be wary; this could also be a consolidation, and if we did see a new move through resistance, this could set up a new bullish continuation and cancel out any ideas of distribution. US Employment data is due at 8:30 a.m. EST today. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap
EURUSD Pullback to 1.055 and Then Heading to 1.10!The analysis of the EUR/USD performance indicates a consolidation of weekly gains above the 1.0600 level in the early hours of Friday in Europe. This consolidation is partly attributed to the recent weakness of the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. The market is eagerly awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for a fresh directional impetus. The rally of the EUR/USD pair encountered a barrier after reaching the 1.0667 level but still holds above the key support level of 1.0600 in the early Asian session on Friday. A decrease in US Treasury bond yields and the correction of the US dollar (USD) provide some support to the pair. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.66%, the lowest level since October 13. On the Federal Reserve (Fed) front, markets anticipate that the interest rate hiking cycle is already over. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for tight financial conditions to prevent further rate hikes. Powell added that the central bank would take action to bring inflation back to the 2% target, but policy decisions will remain highly data-dependent. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate increase in the December meeting remains low at around 20%, putting additional pressure on the US dollar. In the US economic context, weekly Initial Jobless Claims have increased to the highest level in seven weeks, rising to 217,000 from the previous reading of 212,000, exceeding the estimated 210,000. Meanwhile, Unit Labor Costs for the third quarter have decreased by 0.8% compared to a previous rise of 2.2%, falling short of expectations. On the Euro front, the final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, as calculated by HCOB, dropped to 43.1 in October from September's 43.4, exceeding the initial estimate of 43.0. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity. With Manufacturing PMIs in France, Italy, and Spain plummeting, and Germany already indicating a severe recession, it's evident that the sector will contract in each of these nations in the current quarter, which may limit the upside potential for the Euro and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. Looking ahead, market participants will be monitoring the Eurozone Unemployment Rate and US employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. Additionally, the US ISM Services PMI will be released later on Friday. These data could provide a clear direction for the EUR/USD pair. This analysis aims to highlight the strong bullish sentiment in the H4 timeframe, although I am personally waiting for a retracement around the 1.0560 level before considering long entries. We will see if the NFP report will bring the market down to gather liquidity before a new bullish momentum. Please comment and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8