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Nfpday

Understanding the NFP EU PumpHere are some questions I put out to my community group the other day followed by the answers. The reasoning being the move has been annotated on the chart. Why did price slowly decline prior to NFP? - Price had to decline slightly before NFP to mitigate the impulsive move created earlier in the day. - Price had to stop out break and re-test buyers with a tight stop loss - Price had to lure sellers into the market before NFP Why did price reject the exact box marked before skyrocketing? - Price skyrocketed because it had gathered enough liquidity from stopping out the buyers. - It utilised the previous order block to skyrocket to take out the impulsive sellers before NFP.
Education
by AlkalineFX
Nonfarm Payroll, RBA Interest rates – Week aheadBusy week ahead as September kicks in. As New Zealand and the United States elections slowly approach, the Coronavirus pandemic will most likely be the center focus for many parties and how they handle the post Coronavirus world. Here is your week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September – Germany’s Inflation and Unemployment rate Like most of Europe, Germany is experiencing an uptick in cases as a reopening of Europe too early takes its toll. However, this has not stopped protesters storming the German Government building in Berlin alongside Germany’s total cases ticked over 243,000. With prices of oil slowly increasing, analysts expect inflation to increase slightly by 0.1%. Furthermore, with Germany’s unemployment benefit allowing unemployed citizens to claim up to 67% of their previous wage, analysts predict no change in the unemployment rate at 6.4% in the week ahead. Tuesday, 1st September and Wednesday 2nd September – Reserve bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Australia’s Year over Year GDP. Australia continues to fight a hard battle with the Coronavirus, after their original strategy of having no lockdown has lead to massive spikes in Melbourne, Victoria. Australia recorded 123 new cases of the Coronavirus – all in the state of Victoria. Denita Wawn, Master Builders Australia’s Chief Executive, stated that “Our industry is facing a bath… Private sector investment is evaporating, and the government must step in to save businesses and jobs,” conveying how dire the situation is in Australia. However, the Reverse Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 0.25%. Any deviation from this consensus is most likely to move the Australian dollar significantly. Furthermore, Melbourne’s sustained lockdown has seen forecasts of GDP growth to drop to -5.3%, down 6.7% GDP growth of 1.4% in the previous quarter. Tuesday 1st September – Italy’s Markit PMI. One of the country’s worst-hit with the Coronavirus, Italy, has recorded over 268,000 cases with cases continue to spike, with newly registered cases yesterday just over 1,200. Italy is predicted to be one of the first to get a grant from the Bloc’s 750 Billion Euro grant as it suffers from worsening GDP growth pre-Coronavirus. Italy is set to release Manufacturing PMI’s to 52, slightly higher from 51.9 last month. Tuesday 1st September – Euro core inflation rate Year over Year Europe is currently experiencing a resurgence in Coronavirus cases as an early lifting of lockdowns just before Summer has forced a spike across Europe. However, many countries are against a second lockdown due to the Economic calamity it will bring. Analysts predict a drop in the inflation growth rate to 0.9%, down from 1.2% in July. Non-farm payroll – Friday, 4th September The United States continues to post daily double-digit Coronavirus cases as their total case count tops 6 Million. As elections approach in just over a month, President Donald Trump continues to let the economy open to win over voters. Non-farm payrolls are predicted to be just over 1.4 million, down from a previous 1.73 million print. As usual, we have many critical economic events that traders need to watch out for to avoid being whipsawed by the market in the week ahead. Trade Cautiously.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY SHORT NFPHello everybody ! Today is NFP day !!! This Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the first monthly labor market number to show the COVID-19 impact. Economists are looking for only a 100,000 decline in payrolls because NFPs are measured as of March 12. The first state-wide stay-at-home order was not issued by California until March 20 and quickly spread across the nation in the days that followed. By the end of March millions of U.S. businesses were shuttered but may not have laid off their employees until the end of the month. As a result, we will not see the full extent of the damage until revisions are released next month and the April numbers will be ugly. Numbers like this puts the U.S. economy at serious risk of recession especially as lockdown measures are extended to April 30, and will most likely extend well into May. In addition to a forecasted 100,000 drop in NFP, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 3.8% from 3.5%, while average hourly earnings growth should slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. USD/JPY will be the most sensitive to these numbers but there could be other opportunities as well. If non-farm payrolls fall by 100,000 or less and the unemployment rate declines to 3.7% or better, the U.S. dollar will rally but the gains should be short-lived as investors eye any good numbers with skepticism. Selling USD/JPY on a bounce should be the right move. Personally I'm aiming around 20-25 pips on that news. It's important to keep the risk management in mind so we are here to make money not to lose money so, if you aren't sure about news, it best for you to stay away. PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL !!! Have a good day and a wonderful weekend ! Please hit the like and follow button !
Short
by Andrei_C
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