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Nfpday

Excellent figures on NFP as a reason to buy the dollarAlright, so today will be published statistics on the US labor market. In this review we will remind its content, talk about how to respond to a particular indicator, as well as tell our expectations. The block of statistical data on the US labor market includes a number of other significant indicators besides an NFP (non-farm payrolls) - the number of new jobs created outside agriculture. For previous data and forecasts, see table below. The block of statistical data Pre Forecast 15:30 USA 3 Number of new jobs created outside of agriculture 134K 190K 15:30 USA 3 Average hourly wage (m/m) 0.3% 0.3% 15:30 USA 3 Unemployment rate 3.7% 3.7% How to respond to a particular indicator and why? Growth in employment generation created outside the agricultural sector above forecasts - is a relevant reason for buying the dollar because it is a strong signal that the economy is in good shape. The average hourly wage growth is also a reason for buying the dollar. But the logic here is slightly different. The fact is that wage growth is a signal to the Fed that inflationary pressure in the economy is growing, which means that the Central Bank must respond to this, for instance, by raising interest rates. The interest rate hike is the cause for the growth of the dollar, which is becoming more attractive against other currencies. The decline in unemployment is a positive signal for the dollar since it indicates an improvement of the economic performance of the country. But it is worth warning about the existence of the so-called natural level of unemployment, to fall below which is undesirable. So, unemployment in the United States is already somewhat below this mark, so a further decline is no longer desirable. In total, the increase of the NFP with the average wage growth - a clear signal in favor of buying the dollar. If the data is mixed (for example, the NFP is better than expected, and the wage growth is worse than in forecasts), the reaction may be unpredictable. Let’s remind that we await the NFP to be much higher than outlooks - somewhere around 250K. Motivation - a great shape of the US economy and the labor market, Trump's tax reform, the end of the hurricane season and consequently the sharp increase in labor demand linked with the end of the pause due to hurricanes, as well as simply excellent data from ADP, published on Wednesday. Accordingly, with such expectations, the most probable scenario is the dollar growth in the foreign exchange market. Taking into account that yesterday the dollar was heavily sold out, there is a good opportunity to buy it cheaper, which we recommend using.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade24Fx
How should we interpret yesterday's ADP data?We continue to prepare our followers to the most important event of the week or probably even of a month - labor market statistics of the USA. Yesterday, traditionally, a couple of days before official statistics, data from the ADP Research Institute on the level of employment in the private sector were published. Recall, analysts had expected growth rate at 187K. We noted that considering the current form of the US economy, we should expect the fact to exceed the forecast. Actually, the way it turned out - the data came out much better than analysts' expectations and amounted to +227K. This is a great indicator that confirms the fact that the US labor market is in the best form over the last 10 years. Is it worth it to extrapolate these figures on Friday data on NFP? In yesterday's review, we noted that the level of correlation between data on ADP and NFP is about 25%. So the chances that the coincidence will be intense are not so high (about ¼). We provide some statistical data (see table below). Date ADP NFP delta 7.2017 158 222 64 8.2017 178 209 31 9.2017 237 156 -81 10.202 135 -33 -168 11.202 235 261 26 12.202 190 228 38 1.2018 250 148 -102 2.2018 234 200 -34 3.2018 235 313 78 4.2018 241 103 -138 5.2018 204 164 -40 6.2018 178 223 45 7.2018 177 213 36 8.2018 219 157 -62 9.2018 163 201 38 10.202 230 134 -96 As we can see, data on ADP and NFP usually differ significantly. On average, ADP comes out 30K better than NFP data. Tellingly, periods of the excess of ADP over NFP are replaced by an excess of NFP over ADP. That is, it is a high probability that this time (this Friday), the ADP numbers will be worse than the NFP (last month they were much better). This means that we may fully expect the NFP growth not at 190K, as analysts expect, but at 250-260K. And although the forecast seems quite optimistic, we consider it is realistic, especially given that after the end of the hurricane season, the demand for labor usually increases sharply. Our recommendations on the dollar are unchanged in this light - looking the points for the dollar purchases.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade24Fx
What to Expect from Today's NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! What to Expect from Tonight NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! Above shown three different set of arrows (Three Different scenarios ) Scenario 1 (Green Arrows) >WAY better than expected NFP report (Bullish) Trend line continuation. USDJPY may have a spike and retest before a rejection from the major psychological level of 114.5 before going back down to trend line before retesting again.Breakout will likely to occur. Scenario 2 (Blue Arrows)> Neutral NFP report REMEMBER!! MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT. THEREFORE a not so "Neutral" report may be responded with a dovish spike before potentially forming a Head & Shoulder. Neckline is perfectly formed at 50.0 fib retracement. Scenario 3 (Red Arrows)> Bad NFP report This will be a perfect disasters for bears. Since MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT, A Bad report will likely tank this pair to the 61.8 Fib Support at 113.3 or even lower. A support turned resistance will either form at the 50.0 fib or 61.8 fib. Goodluck Fellas! For my live trades. You could mirror me at cm.pepperstone.com
by dmcjk95
EURUSD NFP Strategy: Into the DipTrade tension between the US and China are contributing to the recent USD strength at the time of this writing. New tariffs on China may lead to a retaliation, causing some nervousness in global markets. As a result the focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may be limited, however, some reaction is often seen when the US employment figures are released. Initiating a trade at market price prior to the NFP may require a larger protective stop due to the volatile market conditions that are often seen upon the release of the figures. Our strategy is fairly straightforward, a buy limit order may be more appropriate. I highlighted on the chart the key levels in EURUSD. Do note that this setup is for experienced technical traders only. An appropriate entry price may be at 1.1547, protective stop layered at 1.1500, targeting 1.1620. The estimated duration for the strategy is no longer than 30 - 45 minutes. The risk ratio is poor but it is a short-term strategy. I must also highlight the risk of exercising the strategy as significant volatility may be seen. Over-leveraging is not encouraged. The aim of the protective stop is to contain losses rather than prevent losses. I will rarely post trade ideas with an entry, stop and take profit in tradingview, this is an exception. In an event EURUSD will continue trading lower prior to the NFP where it is only 40 pips from the entry price I suggest to cancel the order. In an event EURUSD does not trigger the entry within 15 minutes after the release I suggest to cancel the buy limit order.
Long
by DDMARKETS
NFP as an excuse for rebounding from the upper border on the $The dollar again approached the upper border of its medium-term range 93.30-95.40. As reasons for this, you can call both an excellent form of the US economy and summer range trading, when assets are circulating from the top to the bottom. As a rule, as a reason for a rebound from the boundaries of the range, one or another fundamental factor is chosen. In this regard, Friday is almost ideal for rebounding the dollar from the upper boundary of the medium-range. Speech, of course, is about statistics on the US labor market. Recall, traditionally the US labor market statistics unit includes the following indicators (see the table below). Pre-Forecast 15:30 USA 3 NFP (July) 213K 190K 15:30 USA 3 Average hourly earnings (m / m) (July) 0.2 % 0.3 % 15:30 USA 3 Unemployment rate (July) 4.0 % 3.9 % In general, the forecasts are good, but the markets by and large need only an excuse. They can also quarrel with the insufficiently rapid growth of wages, as a reason for doubts that the Fed will raise rates, and to the number of new jobs, even if it comes within the forecasts (since the current forecast is lower than the previous value). In addition, the last time unpleasantly surprised by the unemployment rate, which has grown. Plus, the results for the previous period may be revised downward. That is, if you want to find an excuse, you will find an excuse. It is in this we see the vulnerability of the dollar on Friday. Technically, he is ready for a turn and a local decline, and a fundamental reason for this will be found at 15-30, if, of course, they want. Do not exclude the possibility of weak data. The fact is that over the past two years, data on the NFP has never been published 3 times in a row better than forecasts. Maximum - two times in a row. And this was recorded just last month. That is, purely statistical data this week should go worse than forecasts. In total, we believe that the dollar is unlikely to be able to overcome the upper limit of the range, but the rebound from it is the most likely development of events, especially considering that there is still a whole month of summer ahead. Therefore, our recommendation - the sale of the dollar in the upper range.
TVC:DXY
by Trade24Fx
Will USDCAD wake up with NFPR?Is it just me or has USDCAD been sleeping this week? EUR, GBP, all moving like crazy and the canadians are as cold as ice. When I see that I usually expect a big move to come, and considering we've been failing to go lower this week I'll expect a move higher. Even if its only a spike. I say that because this is a reversal trade. CAD is looking strong in general, and I think we will see lower USDCAD prices in the months to come. What's your analysis? Are you also bullish going into NFPR? Share your ideas and let's learn together! Peace, love, and sweet bamboo, tbp Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
Long
by TheBadPanda
4
EUR USD - Interesting setupHello folks , come back to the forex! Today is the first friday of the month , so NFP USA , it would be surely a high volatility day because of this big impact news for the dollar. So my advice is to take position after the news , after the big volatility , but if you have a more aggressive approach , forget what i said! So there is a descending trendline that accompanied the EUR USD falling , now looks like is forming a triangle and this zone might be a good point to go long , with a SL below lows and TP around 1.20700 previous support zone, another reason is the strong falling , looks like need a retracement and this is what we want to take. Don't take that as financial advice and be careful to trade today , it would a high volatility day. Have a nice day!
Long
by maro9392
EURUSD at 20 day Exponential Moving Average support.The 20 day moving average is a strong point which plays big part in how the future trend is set and detected. Setting up for a trade, short term selling from under 1.23 to 1.2270 may play a good trade short term trade, below it is stronger support directly to the 1.2200/1.2190 trend line support where more buyers are emerging. Be careful and follow also everything connected with news and don't forget next week is NFP's week. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and may result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Supplied information is not advice.
by TheTrade_Academ
EURUSD UncertaintyCurrently, the sentiment of the pair seems to be clearly inclined to a down movement of the price. But we should rather wait until Friday to find out more about what will be the real direction of the pair. Note that the US is strongly considering a hike in interest rate which can cause the USD to grow much stronger. However, the France is currently on crosshead of most European traders. Le pen is one step ahead against his opponent. Her winning the presidential election will be crucial for the Euro and combined with the increase in the FED Interest rate we can almost definitely conclude that the EURUSD pair will undergo a downfall.
Short
by Hizmaylof