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EURUSD Technical Forecast on NFP 07.02.2025Overall Trend & Context: The EURUSD pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and has recently been consolidating on the lower times. Fundamental Considerations for the NFP: Consensus Forecast (High Probability) - Most analysts forecast a gain in the 169K–170K range, which lines up with recent trends. A neutral result would suggest that the labor market is still solid. Stronger-than-Expected Outcome (Medium Probability) - If the report comes in well above consensus (eg: above 190K jobs), it could reinforce expectations for a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Weaker-than-Expected Outcome (Low Probability) - A result below expectations (eg: fewer than 135K jobs) might trigger a reassessment of the US economic outlook, we will need to watch the markets and prepare for dynamic shifts. Technical Findings: Weekly - Bearish and trading well below EMA's. Daily - Bearish & showing signs of 25 EMA rejection. Previous distribution is holding price at bay. 4 Hour - Strong supply levels holding and trading below the 200 EMA. 1 Hour - Close to overbought levels and LTF distribution is holding. Important Notes: DXY is at a previous demand which proved to be a challenge to break through in the past. GBPUSD & EURUSD can have variations in the short term correlation but the technicals both align, which reinforces our EURUSD narrative. USDJPY technicals remain bullish on the long term however, the short term is in a downtrend and has reached a daily demand - we could potentially see a bullish reaction from here (based on DXY strength and the negative correlation with EURUSD) Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: If the lows at 1.03800 fail we may need to adjust our entry zones based on where liquidity and supply are found. If price reaches the weaker supply level closer to the release of the NFP we can enter, however there is a chance we could get stuck in some drawdown if supply isn't strong enough to push through. HIGH PROFILE NEWS RELEASES ARE DOUBLE EDGED IF YOU'RE NOT CAREFUL. YOU DO NOT NEED TO BASE YOUR ENTIRE TRADING CAREER ON IT. STAY OUT IF YOU'RE NOT COMFORTABLE TRADING NEWS. AS TRADERS, YOUR PRIMARY JOB IS TO PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL - WITHOUT CAPITAL YOU CAN'T MAKE ANY MOVES. Trade smart. Hope you all make money if you're trading today! Apex out! OANDA:EURUSD FX:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD OANDA:USDJPY TVC:DXY OANDA:GBPUSD PEPPERSTONE:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
USDJPY Long: NFP ON TAP!!! NFP is expected to come in at about 169k. We will watch the actual news results before deciding whether to continue the trade. If the news comes in better than expected, we expect the US dollar to become stronger against the Yen. If NFP comes in lower than expected, we will be looking to other major pairs for trading setups. We can see price is moving in a bullish direction, which is supported by the short-term trendline breakout and a change in market structure from bearish to bullish.
Long
by NDOBObanks
Gold Big Move Tomorrow NFP? (BULLISH ACTIVATED) 300 PIPSHey everyone this is your boy Hunbal! I am looking for a NFP huge buy trade ready for Newyork session XAUUSD is ready for a bull run I have 2 confirmations one the rejection from the support level and second choc in 2 hour time frame so we are hoping a good buy from here (2665) our take profit will be 300 pips 2695 and our stop loss will be 100 pips 2655 I wish we all together print some good money in tomorrow NFP news. Good Luck :)
TVC:GOLDLong
by hunbaltradelab
6
XAUUSD - The NFP indicator will determine the direction of gold!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. In case of weakness in the data of the employment market and increase in the unemployment rate, you can look for opportunities to buy gold. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate release and a strong NFP headline will lead to a breakout of the bullish and bearish channel in gold. While most major economies are expected to pursue expansionary monetary policies this year, the pace of these measures will likely slow. According to Bloomberg’s forecast, the overall interest rate index in advanced economies is projected to decrease by only 72 basis points in 2025, which is lower than the rate of decline in 2024. Donald Trump, with his electoral promises and economic policies, has become a source of concern for central banks worldwide.If Trump enforces his threats to impose trade tariffs, these policies could harm economic growth and, in the case of retaliatory measures, drive up consumer prices. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) highlighted the “complex” impacts of Trump’s proposed tariffs on metal prices in a recent note. The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada—two of the main suppliers of metals to the U.S.—are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on the market. The bank identified two main concerns. First, the potential negative impact on global growth and the fundamentals of the metals market, particularly if the tariffs escalate into a full-blown trade war. However, BofA predicts that a more “measured approach to trade barriers is likely to prevail,” which would mitigate the overall damage. Second, regional metal prices will need to adjust to the potential tariffs. Bank of America warned that tariffs could strengthen the dollar, increase inflation, and lead to higher interest rates—all of which could pose challenges for the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, they concluded that metal prices are likely to stabilize after the initial volatility subsides, especially if the tariffs are targeted and investments in energy transition continue. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, downplayed expectations of continued monetary easing in 2025 during his December 18, 2024, press conference. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s dissenting vote against a rate cut was surprising, but the major shock to markets came from the Fed members’ projections (dot plot). The Fed members forecast only two rate cuts for 2025, signaling that the monetary easing cycle, which began in September 2024, will slow significantly in the coming year. Powell also admitted that inflation forecasts for the end of the year had been overly optimistic, suggesting that inflation is not yet fully under control. The Fed is increasingly concerned about Trump’s policies, as tools like tariffs could raise import prices and, subsequently, inflation. Forecasts for Friday’s NFP data: • Average estimate: 165K • Lowest estimate: 120K • Highest estimate: 190K The importance of the labor market for monetary policy has slightly diminished following Powell’s December 18 press conference. This indicates that the Fed has some confidence in easing price pressures stemming from the labor market. However, recent data suggests that the labor market has not fully cooled. The upcoming NFP report is expected to show a 160,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth are likely to remain steady at 4.2% and 4%, respectively. If these expectations are unmet, especially with job growth below 50,000, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in Q1 2025 will increase. Currently, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by June 2025, but this move could occur sooner if labor market data remains weak.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NFP market trading strategyFrom the data, the previous value is 1.2 (million), and the forecast value is 20 (million). From the current expectations, the non-agricultural employment population data may continue to rise sharply, which is bearish for gold; if the data is revised for the previous value, it may bring greater pressure to the gold market; gold fell to around 2613 overnight, and it is not ruled out that institutions are running ahead of the NFP market. If gold in the NFP market continues to fall sharply, it will also harvest most of the funds chasing the rise; From the chart, gold is currently in a volatile pattern, but from the perspective of rebounding and falling back many times, it faces multiple resistances above, first facing resistance in the 2655-2665 area, and secondly facing resistance in the 2675-2685 area. So it is actually difficult for gold to break upward at the technical level; and today is Friday, the gold market closes the weekly line. From the weekly level, gold still has room to continue to fall, so once gold falls in the NFP market, it is likely to test the 2605-2600 area support; it may even test the 2580-2560 area. So, today’s NFP market trading strategy: 1. Set the price limit to sell gold at 2658-2662. If it exceeds 2666, the short position will be abandoned; 2. Wait for the data to be released and then follow the gold fluctuations to choose an opportunity to short gold; Bros, are you ready to participate in the NFP market? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader_Marvin
XAUUSD: NFP//Short-first, Then-longAfter the initial rebound from a significant drop, it appears the market is ready for a secondary retest of the bottom support range. Keep a close eye on the 2742-2732 support zone. Should prices drop into this range before the data release, and if the data turns bearish, expect further downside with targets in the 2718-2712 range; in case of a stronger bearish impulse, prices may fall to the 2708-2703 region. Alternatively, if the data supports bullish movement, prices could rise above 2760. Given recent data, bearish probability seems higher, so a “short-first, then-long” strategy is advised, with careful attention to entry and exit points.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mia-Signal
GBPJPY Oct 4 2024 pending buy limit activatedDetailed entry on GBPJPY maximizing liquidity grab. :) This trade was taken during N.Y session of Oct 3 2024. I set pending buy limit because I saw Slow motion while approaching fair value gap (see charts arrow) . As I go to my fundamentals i saw an important NEWS --> NFP USD. Anticipating large momentum because of the demand introduced this week. This trade was a success, years of learning and charts behavior observation. Trade with confidence and patience. :) Have a great day folks! #wyckoff #supplyanddemand
Long
by glyrad
USDJPY I ADP Non-Farm Report Trading Plan Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
4
USNAS100 / New All-Time Highs and NFP Implications Technical Analysis: New All-Time Highs and NFP Implications Today's Outlook: The price has recently surged past previous high levels, trending towards a new all-time high around 20410. A retest of this level might occur, potentially driving the price down to 20100. However, today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) announcement is expected to significantly impact market movements. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish trend to be confirmed, the price must break below 20100 and stabilize with a 4-hour candle close beneath this level. This could lead to further declines towards 19845 and potentially 19625. Bullish Scenario: As long as the price remains above 20100, the bullish trend is likely to continue, targeting 20410 and 20540. There is also a possibility of a retest down to 20100 before resuming the upward movement. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 20220 Resistance Levels: 20400, 20540, 20750 Support Levels: 20100, 19960, 19625 Today's Expected Range: The price is expected to fluctuate between the support at 19625 and the resistance at 20540. NFP Scenarios: - Previous Result: 272K - Expectation: 191K If the NFP release is less than 191K, the indices are likely to follow a bullish scenario. Conversely, a result exceeding 191K, particularly around 250K, would likely lead to a bearish scenario. In summary, today's market direction will be heavily influenced by the NFP results and the key price levels outlined. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for navigating the day's trading volatility.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 / Key Price Levels and Scenarios Amid NFP ImpactS&P 500 Analysis: Navigating Volatility with Key Price Levels and Scenarios Amid NFP Impact The S&P 500 currently faces a significant supply zone between 5525 and 5550, having recently hit a new all-time high at 5550. Despite this, the broader outlook remains bullish, especially after stabilizing above the previous resistance level of 5525. However, the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is poised to significantly impact the market. Bullish Scenario: To maintain the bullish momentum, the price needs to break through the supply zone and continue upward towards 5635. A 4-hour candle closing above 5550 would indicate a continued uptrend for the following week. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the price drops and stabilizes below 5525, it would signal a bearish trend, potentially leading to declines towards 5491 and 5460. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5550 - 5525 Resistance Levels: 5590, 5620, 5645 Support Levels: 5491, 5460, 5440 Today's Expected Trading Range: Today's trading range is anticipated to be between the resistance at 5635 and the support at 5460. NFP Scenarios: - Previous Result: 272K - Expectation: 191K If the NFP release is less than 191K, the indices are likely to follow a bullish scenario. Conversely, a result exceeding 191K, particularly around 250K, would likely lead to a bearish scenario. In summary, the market's direction hinges on the NFP results and critical price levels. Monitoring these key levels and the NFP report will be crucial for navigating the S&P 500's volatility.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
US30USD: Key Insights for NFP FridayGreetings Traders! Brief Description🖊️: Currently, on US30USD, I see the potential for a shift into bearish order flow. Price is at premium levels, indicating a possible sell-off from the bearish order block. Market Analysis📉: We have observed a bullish narrative throughout the week, with price reaching bullish objectives, including the bearish order block. For a detailed analysis, refer to the linked post: Things We Have Seen👀: This week’s bullish price action filled the liquidity void and tapped into the bearish order block. Now, I am looking for confirmations that the order block will hold and if it does this will indicate bearish price action. Bearish Targets📉: The engineered trendline liquidity with sell stops. Main draw: Daily sell stops. What's Important Now❗: This potential move could coincide with tomorrow’s NFP release. If the order block holds, we may see bearish momentum. If not, continued bullishness is likely. Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:US30USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
#NFP/USDT#NFP We have a bearish channel pattern on a 12-hour frame, the price moves within it, adheres to its limits well, and is expected to break it upwards strongly. We have a support area at the lower border of the channel at $0.400 from which the price rebounded We have a tendency to stabilize above moving average 100 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break higher, supporting the price higher Entry price is 0.4848 The first target is 0.5800 The second goal is 0.6840. The third goal is 0.7824
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Profited $14K, NFP is expected to rise and then fall backThis morning, I shorted gold near 2326.31, and as gold fell back to hit TP: 2315, I profited and left the market; I added positions and went long gold near 2296 and 2286, and as gold bottomed out, it hit TP again: 2300 profit and exit. The total profit exceeded GETTEX:14K , which was another good profit for several days in a row! Tomorrow will usher in a golden highlight moment, because NFP will be released tomorrow, which will definitely intensify short-term fluctuations and even guide the short-term direction of gold. It is a challenge but also an opportunity. In my opinion, gold is likely to rise first and then fall under the influence of NFP market! Judging from the recent economic data in the United States, the U.S. economy is strong, which limits gold’s upside to a certain extent. Moreover, high inflation has not yet been completely resolved, so the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are decreasing, which is also negative for gold to a certain extent. In addition, gold has also confirmed the validity of the 2430 top at the technical level, so the overall short trend of gold has been established.At least gold has demand to extend its decline. So why does gold rise before falling? Because gold has been weak recently and shorts have gradually gained the upper hand, the market is likely to need to use NFP data to kill a batch of short positions first and harvest some funds;In addition, gold has fallen ahead of schedule in the past two days, touching the 2285-2280 area many times, which is likely to reserve room for growth in the NFP market in advance. In the short-term structure, gold's technical bottom-out rebound creates a double-bottom structure in the short-term structure, which is helpful for gold's short-term rise. Therefore, in the NFP market, gold is very likely to rise and fall, and continue its decline. Judging from the current trend, if gold rebounds first, we will first focus on the 2325-2330 area and the 2350-2355 area above. If gold rebounds first with the help of NFP data, I predict that gold is likely to touch the 2325-2330 area during the rebound, and may even try to touch the 2350-2355 area, and then fall back or even continue to fall to the 2270-2260 area. Therefore, in this process, there is a good opportunity to participate in gold trading, and the profit is definitely not small. I will definitely not miss this good opportunity once a month.After all, there are always markets, but opportunities are hard to come by! I share detailed trading strategies and trading signals every day. You can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to get detailed trading signals and learn trading logic. People who are already in it have already made a lot of money. Let us enjoy the journey of making money together. !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by alongwineer