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XAUUSD DROP - PRE NFP ANALYSISXAUUSD Technical Outlook & Fundamental Veiw Gold struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Friday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session. The XAU/USD, however, manages to hold above the $1,700 mark as traders ReasoN for GOLD XAUUSD fall 1. Holding @ strong Resistance and make correcction over the strong support of 1664 2. Candle Stick pattern conform the downward pressure and three crow Fall confirmation 3. Fundamentally DXY already Break out an dread for Take of to 22 year High again Overall XAUUSD FX SIGNAL GOLD BUY 1712-1718.10 SL 1738.00 TP 1664.50
OANDA:XAUUSD
by kripsonfx97
NFP Undershoots, Markets UnmovedNovember 2021 Non-Farm Payrolls Data Release Last Friday saw the release of the monthly US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for November 2021. This data is often closely watched by markets for clues as to the state of the US labour market and economy, and as such, the data can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. However, it has been a long time since NFP releases tended to materially move markets, and last week was no exception. The key headline was the creation of only 210,000 net new jobs, when the consensus forecast by analysts expected as much as 553,000. This was a big undershoot but markets barely reacted. This may be partially because even with such a large undershoot in new jobs, the US unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month on month, although 0.4% was expected. The US unemployment rate at 4.2% is at a 21-month low so it can be seen that the US labour market is tightening and that is no surprise as everyone already knows it is. This was the crucial element of the data. Market Reaction to NFP Data In a nutshell, markets barely reacted, or at least the price movements following the release were proportionate to the price action already happening in all major assets such as the S&P 500 Index or the US Dollar Index. This is partly because the NFP just is not the key driver of monetary policy that it used to be, and partly because it is soaring US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s reaction to it that is now the fundamental issue of most concern to market analysts. With the Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell calling to speed up tapering and removing the word “transitory” from his description of the current inflationary situation, markets are going to keep a laser-like focus on next Friday’s US CPI (inflation) data, which is very likely to trigger a major move in the markets even if it comes in at the widely expected month on month increase of 0.7%. What Does This Mean for Traders? Traders should ignore the NFP data and, at least until Friday’s release of US CPI (inflation) data, trade in line with market sentiment. Prevailing market sentiment is risk-off, meaning stocks, commodities, and commodity currencies and the British Pound are likely to be weak, while the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and US dollar are likely to be strong. This will probably continue until positive news about the omicron coronavirus variant begins to emerge and will be overshadowed during Friday’s New York session by the inflation data in any case. Of course, it is possible that bad news may begin to emerge regarding the virulence of omicron, and this will be likely to increase risk-off flow.
TVC:DXY
by SmoothJB
What The Disappointing NFP Report Really Means For The USDThe Nonfarm Payroll (aka, NFP report) is making a habit of missing its forecast by wide margins. September’s NFP rolled on Friday, revealing that a meagre 194K jobs had been added to the US economy last month. Perhaps the NFP report wouldn’t have been as disappointing had forecasts not predicted September added 500K jobs for the month. Job growth held to expectations within the leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors, adding a combined 130K jobs to the economy. However, a steep decline in education and healthcare professionals across the US severely undermined NFP predictions, down by 161K and 18K, respectively. Why the NFP matters to the Federal Reserve According to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a “decent” September NFP would be needed for the Fed’s planned bond-buying slowdown (tapering) to remain on track for November. Without Powell’s definition of “decent” or a stated value that meets that definition, the market might have to scramble to figure out what the September NFP will mean for the Fed’s tapering roadmap. As it stands, the DXY is struggling to maintain momentum above the 94.00 level. A reversal or delay in the Fed tapering may expose further weakness in the USD. After the NFP; Economic Calendar Concerning the USD The markets will have a couple of days to decipher what the Fed might do in response to the lacklustre NFP. Helping the deciphering process will be the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, followed by several speeches from Fed representatives. Perhaps the most important of these will be from Lael Brainard on Wednesday and John Williams on Friday. Three additional economic reports will help determine the trajectory the USD takes this week. On Wednesday, expect data concerning the rate of inflation in the US (YoY) (SEP). Inflation in the US is forecast to remain stable at 5.3%. Used vehicles, one of the main culprits for the high inflation in 2021, has begun to subside in price. Supply constraints across multiple industries may be picking up this slack and slowing the pace at which inflation drops. Alternatively, supply constraints could pick up more than just the slack left by falling used vehicles, and with it, push inflation back in line or beyond the pandemic record of 5.4%. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly commented over the weekend pushing back against the idea that inflation is here to stay, throwing inflation’s new instigator, ‘supply constraints’, under the bus. Daly noted, “We have these really anxious-to-get-out-there-and-spend consumers hitting the wall of supply constraints, and of course the prices are going to rise…But I don’t see this as a long-term phenomenon.”. On Friday, expect back-to-back reports. First, US Retail Sales MoM SEP is forecast to remain flat, followed quickly by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment OCT, which is expected to rise by one point or two from 72.8 in September.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUUSD NFP Weekly Forecast!Hello Fellow Traders, Here is a Full Analysis For XAUUSD. Key things to Remember: GOLD has Respected This Channel Many times In the Past! Weekly Supply Area For GOLD - We can expect Institutions to Sell in this Area! The Best way to follow my Analysis is if the following conditions apply. Conditions - 1. Wait for the Market to Show you some Rejection / Confirmation / Direction 2.Wait for confirmation(Price Action Confirmation Aka . Pinbar , Bullish or Bearish engulfing / Break of structure Aka Support Or Resistance) 3.Do your Own analysis! (Draw Trend Lines / Support & Resistance Zones / SND ) 4.Always Use Risk Management (Risk 1% of your capital) 5.Entry Should be Made on The 4H Timeframe (Only if you have Confirmation) 6.Trade at own risk. 7.Show some support Below (Like , Comment , Follow & share) Let Me know if you have any Questions or Comments Below! I have Left my Previous Analysis below for further reference :) Happy Trading & Goodluck! See You in the next Analysis! Global Fx Education
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Global_Fx
3
USD/JPY SHORT NFPHello everybody ! Today is NFP day !!! This Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the first monthly labor market number to show the COVID-19 impact. Economists are looking for only a 100,000 decline in payrolls because NFPs are measured as of March 12. The first state-wide stay-at-home order was not issued by California until March 20 and quickly spread across the nation in the days that followed. By the end of March millions of U.S. businesses were shuttered but may not have laid off their employees until the end of the month. As a result, we will not see the full extent of the damage until revisions are released next month and the April numbers will be ugly. Numbers like this puts the U.S. economy at serious risk of recession especially as lockdown measures are extended to April 30, and will most likely extend well into May. In addition to a forecasted 100,000 drop in NFP, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 3.8% from 3.5%, while average hourly earnings growth should slow to 0.2% from 0.3%. USD/JPY will be the most sensitive to these numbers but there could be other opportunities as well. If non-farm payrolls fall by 100,000 or less and the unemployment rate declines to 3.7% or better, the U.S. dollar will rally but the gains should be short-lived as investors eye any good numbers with skepticism. Selling USD/JPY on a bounce should be the right move. Personally I'm aiming around 20-25 pips on that news. It's important to keep the risk management in mind so we are here to make money not to lose money so, if you aren't sure about news, it best for you to stay away. PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL !!! Have a good day and a wonderful weekend ! Please hit the like and follow button !
Short
by Andrei_C
1
Ambiguous NFP and a busy week aheadLast week ended for the dollar is not the best way. Statistics on the US labor market came out slightly worse than expected: +145K new jobs outside agriculture instead of the expected +160K. On the one hand, it’s okay, but on the other hand, after +200K of employment from ADP, it seems to be not enough. On the whole, our predictions for NFPs based on statistical laws can be justified: two excesses by the fact of the forecast must be followed by lag from expectations. Perhaps the most annoying thing for us happened in the USD/CAD pair. Recall, we recommended news trading. And the news came out almost ideal for reducing the pair: relatively weak data on the USA against the background of strong data on Canada (employment +35K with a forecast of +25K). But the decline in USD/CAD was very limited and earnings of 15-20 points cannot be considered as such. Total, the week is clearly an asset to the dollar, but so far we see the growth of the dollar exclusively as an opportunity for its sales to be more expensive. And the numbers on the NFP have more likely confirmed our position than disproved. So this week we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales. The main candidates for this are the pair with the Japanese yen and the British pound. The first is interesting to us as an asset-refuge and just the entry points themselves are magnificent. As for the British pound, Brexit is confidently moving in the right direction, but the pound has lingered. Accordingly, we expect that already this week he will rush to catch up. In our opinion, another interesting asset for trading this week is gold. The inability of sellers to sell 1550 is the best confirmation of the appropriateness of buying gold. In any case, the deal is worthwhile: with relatively small stops (placed below 1440), goals can be set very ambitiously. Recall, we believe that gold should test 1800 this year. The new week promises to be quite saturated with macroeconomic statistics, especially in the USA and Great Britain. Which, again, will almost certainly be accompanied by the appearance of points for entering positions.
Short
by Trade24Fx
4
What to Expect from Today's NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! What to Expect from Tonight NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! Above shown three different set of arrows (Three Different scenarios ) Scenario 1 (Green Arrows) >WAY better than expected NFP report (Bullish) Trend line continuation. USDJPY may have a spike and retest before a rejection from the major psychological level of 114.5 before going back down to trend line before retesting again.Breakout will likely to occur. Scenario 2 (Blue Arrows)> Neutral NFP report REMEMBER!! MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT. THEREFORE a not so "Neutral" report may be responded with a dovish spike before potentially forming a Head & Shoulder. Neckline is perfectly formed at 50.0 fib retracement. Scenario 3 (Red Arrows)> Bad NFP report This will be a perfect disasters for bears. Since MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT, A Bad report will likely tank this pair to the 61.8 Fib Support at 113.3 or even lower. A support turned resistance will either form at the 50.0 fib or 61.8 fib. Goodluck Fellas! For my live trades. You could mirror me at cm.pepperstone.com
by dmcjk95