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USDJPY Pulls Back as US Labor Market CoolsAfter years of ultra-loose monetary setting that has been detrimental for the Yen, the Bank of Japan has started the normalization process, but does so slowly and remains accommodative. Its US counterpart meanwhile looks to pivot from its aggressive tightening, but persistent inflation creates apprehension. As a result, USD/JPY is having another banner year with 14% gains in the first half. The rally continues in the third quarter, as the pair reached 38-year highs last week, bringing 165.00 in the spotlight. On the other hand, the rally raises risk for new FX intervention by Japanese authorities, which have already spent nearly ¥10 trillion this year to support the ailing Yen. The weak currency increases pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy, supported by elevated inflation and strong wages. Policymakers have signaled they will reduce the amount of bond buying and at least one more hike is reasonable this year, following the historic exit from the negative rates regime in March. Fed officials are cautious around removing monetary restraint, due to stubborn inflation, strong economy and tight labor market. However, the disinflation process has resumed according to recent data, while Friday’s report showed that employment conditions are easing, boosting market bets for two rate cuts this year. The shift in monetary policy dynamics is weighing on the pair after the 38-year peak and creates scope for a deeper pullback that would test the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would pause the bullish momentum, but strong catalyst would be needed for that and the downside appears well-protected. There are key events coming up this week that can shape the trajectory of the pair, namely Fed Chair Powell’s two-day Congress testimony and the US CPI inflation update. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
by FXCM
#NFP/USDT#NFP We have a bearish channel pattern on a 12-hour frame, the price moves within it, adheres to its limits well, and is expected to break it upwards strongly. We have a support area at the lower border of the channel at $0.400 from which the price rebounded We have a tendency to stabilize above moving average 100 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break higher, supporting the price higher Entry price is 0.4848 The first target is 0.5800 The second goal is 0.6840. The third goal is 0.7824
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
US-DOLLAR really falling after NFPs? I doubt it.Hey tradomaniacs, chaotic market huh? To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense. I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold. The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation. Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst result since december 2020. This clearly shows a cool down in the NFP-Sector and is overall bearish for the US-Dollar. Unemployment Rate: 3,9% and a positive development considering that previous rate has been at 4,2%. Overall bullish fort he US-Dollar. Average hourly earnings: 0,6% and way higher compared to the previous month. This is overall bullish for the US-DOLLAR due to higher inflation. Average weekly hours: 34,7 and less than expected. The problem here in my opinion is the fact that earnings per hour soared while less jobs were created. This is a typical sign of inflation and part oft he wage-price-spiral. Considering that FED has to and will fight inflation as its priority number one after their „transitory-fail“ to gain back reputation Jerome Powell & Co could turn from best friends to fiends for the stockmarket as financial injections probably won`t be an option anymore, whether the economy cools down or not. This is clearly negative for the overvalued equity-market but not by all means for the US-Dollar. Simply put: The FEDs in a quandra. Can`t provide more liquidity due to high inflation to push growth and employment and has to hope everything is going to be fine. Rising yields do indicate expectations for higher inflation in the market and would offer an alterantive to stocks in the near future (Bonds). They are also generally good for the bank-sector and obviously not good for tecs due to high costs which are not as easier to finance with higher interest-rates. But here is a catch.. we know how irrational but faithful the market is... if it turns out the market hopes the FED to ignore their plans and "slow it down" in order to boost the economy again if future results are not as good as expected we might see another rally in stocks and so a falling US-Dollar. This would be more like the less likely scenario in my opinion...I mean Bidens is on Powells tail. Risk-Off is generally good for the US-DOLLAR as a safe haven. If FED continues as announced and planned the US-Dollar is likely to move up while this move turns out to be a fake. One of these charts is lying, but I see a higher probabillity of a rising US-Dollar under these circumstances. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
TVC:US10YLong
by Trading2ez
3
Non-Farm-Payrolls: YOUR Preparation and ENTRYS!#TRADEPLANHey tradomaniacs, welcome to a quick video for your NON-FARM-PAYROLL preparation. PRICE-LEVELS: Statistical edge: Short Short-Area at 1,10274 Long-Area at 1,10539 or 1,10879 NOTE THIS PLEASE: Fundamentally, these NFP`s can be very tricky for the market to interpret! The market is currently driven by news regarding to the tradewar, brexit and monetary policy of the FED. The rally of this year, especially in the USA is just based on hope....this is why the market reacts with volatility whenever news about the tradewar appears. So what is the market hoping for? 1. First of all, the market hopes that Trump and Xi Jinping will finally find a deal to end this tradewar. This is why every tweet from Trump causes huge moves at the market. The market seems to believe that the current globale cool-down is mainly caused by the tradewar and its consequences. 2. FED`s monetary policy The market priced in further interest-rate-cuts by the FED in order to provide the market more liquidity (100% in september). This would boost the economy and would be a play into Trumps hands because he could keep increase the pressure in terms of tradewar-talks. As you can see: BAD NEWS can be GOOD NEWS and vice versa. If we get to see a good result, the FED would have less reasons to cut the interest-rates -> Dollar could go up -> Hope of market for further rate-cuts is gone! If the get to see a bad result, the FED would have more reasons to cut the interest-rates -> Dollar could go down -Y Hope of market for further rate-cuts confirmed! The questions is: What will prevail? The reality, in other words the economic datas? Or the hope? If you newstrade, don`t get fooled by GREEN and RED digits here. Bad news can be good and good news be bad. ;-) More importantly I expect the market to wait for Jerome Powells speech after the NFP`s. THE MARKET WANTS RATE-CUTS. ----------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
by Trading2ez
4
USDJPY accumulating below 114.95/115The Dollar is extremely well bid against the Yen as we head into Non-Farm Pay Rolls and may even break higher before the number. We are anticipating an eventual move to 117 - 117.50 over the coming weeks, however, the path higher is far from clear. Initial resistance is 114.95/115, already tested earlier the session. The figure could well go today, but further resistance lies just ahead; with 50% of the down-move at 115.12. Beyond there, we have the 115.40 - 115.65 zone, which sparked two bearish reversals in late January. Assuming an in line jobs print, this zone seems like a logical target for end of week. In the event of a substantially stronger than anticipated jobs number; we see a move to the 115.95 - 116.25 zone, marked by the 61.8 fib at 115.94. Initial support is today's low around 114.25, with more important support seen in the 113.55 - 113.80 zone, and a breach of there invalidating our bullish bias.
Long
by MFXSCharts
Looking for a return to the highsThe Loony seems well bid above ascending channel support and we are looking for a move back towards 1.36 over the coming weeks. Pair finished Friday higher, despite a stronger than expected Canadian jobs report and NFP miss. Support is a daily zone stretching from 1.3170 down to 1.3080, with ascending channel support confluence at 1.3147 and counting. A daily close below the latter would invalidate the setup and turn us neutral, pending a breach of 1.3080.
Long
by MFXSCharts
EUR/USD prospects pending NFPThe resistance at 1.124 is the point at which the euro-dollar stopped and, in the hopes of an upward breakout, the target is the same. The zone between 1.124 and 1.128 gathered the maximums of many daily candles, but for more than a month it has not been able to stably exceed these points. Therefore, this is the first true signal of a possible upward trend An update on the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index in the US Today represents the only moment of attention in a week that will turn its gaze on the preliminary data and the final data relating to the NFP A result that moves away from analysts’ forecasts, with a slight increase, could really provide the basis for an end of week breakout. The alternative is the continuation of the stalemate between 1.11 and 1.12, while waiting for the electoral climate in the United States to start unleashing its effects.
by MANOLIS
2
Gold might be in a wedge (but testing big support ahead of NFPs)Gold on the daily log scale is in an interesting spot right now. Support at $1300-05 has been tested (note the trend line on the daily log chart). While there seems to be some sort of wedge that has taken shape since the start of the year on my chart, I'm not in a bearish mindset as of yet, unless if $1300 is breached following the NFPs Friday. So long as the market remains above $1300, it may be assumed that gold could bounce back up to around the $1350-60 area in September with perhaps room for fresh highs up to $1380 if the US dollar comes under sustained pressure. Do check my note on silver below as that metal has also tested a major support level.
FX:XAUUSD
by ABRAK75
Silver's testing a historical techical pivot, NFPs/Fed in focusSilver prices have retreated in August, but the rally so far in 2016 provided several technical buy signals earlier this year. These signals suggested at the time that the market's stance on silver, and precious metals in general, was shifting despite the continued backdrop of another possible Fed rate hike (still really low rates!). Today, silver has tested a huge technical level at $18.50 that should not be ignored. It's tempting to initiate long positions above this pivot, which has served as both resistance and support since 2013, but such a strategy obviously depends on a rally at the end of the week following the US non-farm payrolls report. If you are to trade silver before then, I suggest making sure you have adequately calculated your expected loss in case of a breach below $18.30 (or $18.00 if you have more risk appetite). Theoretically, renewed buying pressures above $18.50 after this week (poor NFPs > delayed Fed hike) would suggest the end of the current price correction with a rally back up to $20.60 in September (and possibly fresh highs during the 4th quarter). A break below would give us a more neutral technical situation with a possible test of the 200-DMA, which is currently at $16.40). I would be less inclined to follow such a continued correction as I much prefer the current clarity that the support at $18.50 provides given the overall uptrend since the start of the year.
FX:XAGUSD
by ABRAK75
2
Cable Finishes Week Below 2015 LowsThe Cable was killed last week as markets rattled on China fears and US Non Farm Payrolls trumped expectations. Pair finished the week below a descending triangle bottom marked by the 2015 lows and looks set to continue lower over the coming weeks. Initial target is the 1.236 extension of April - June 2015 around 1.4240, this extension coincides with the 2011 lows above 1.4220, where pair will likely find interim support. Alternatively, a reversal above the 2016 open (1.4732), would spell false break and encourage bulls to look for trend-line resistance below 1.5250.
Short
by FXTechs
GBP/USD Bearish Wedge Back on Track after BoE, NFPsThis is a follow up and an expansion on our GBPUSD chart posted last week (see link to related ideas below). The recent rejection of $1.5660/1.5700 has resulted in a loss of the uptrend from the July 8, 9, and 24 lows. In context of the potential longer-term pattern - a bearish rising wedge that commenced with the break in price on July 7 and subsequent rejection of wedge TL support as resistance on July 15 - it looks like the next leg lower in GBPUSD is beginning. The key level to watch into the end of the week is ~$1.5460, the swing low in the countertrend rally on July 24. A weekly close below this level would offer a confirmation signal for a move lower (further supported by H4 and daily indicators spilling over into bearish territory). Key levels lower to watch come in at ~$1.5315 and ~$1.5160. Bears may find risk contained to $1.5635, the pre-BoE "Super Thursday" high in price on August 6. Still, with resistance having established itself in the $1.5660/1.5700 area (as noted in the chart from last week), gains may be difficult to come by on the long side; the path of least resistance is lower.
Short
by CVecchioFX3e
2