NATGASUSD Wolf PatternNATGAS could be in complete wolf pattern, moving of wave No 5 out of the descending channel make me believe that is bullish wolf, target must be point No 6
Ng!
Will Natural Gas futures continue to fall? Here is my viewTable of contents:
§ 1 Chart analysis
§ 2 Fundamentals
§ 3 My plan to enter
§ 1 Chart analysis
Looking at the NG!1(LNG futures) price, it's quite easy spotting the giant downward channel that price has been moving within for a while now.
As you likely already know, if you are a conservative trader like I am you would look only to take shorts at this point at the top of the channel, but in this case, things might be a bit different...
§ 2 Fundamentals
Now although looking strictly at the chart you would of course look to take shorts on the top of the channel, however, as I have mentioned in my FLNG analysis, China and India are planning on going from Coal heating to Natural Gas heating .
With that said, as we are currently moving away from summer and I predict colder weather will hit these countries within the next month, we might see a change in direction of price in NG as demand rises. Historically we have seen up to a 100% price increase during the winter, as that is when we have the most demand for heating.
§ 3 My plan to enter
I will be looking to enter short if price rejects upper channel and creates a regular divergence with the RSI, and I will enter if the price closes below the 50 EMA.
I will be looking to enter long if price breaks trough the upper channel, and we are met with a hidden divergence.
Another possibility is price retracing partly downward after rejecting top channel but not reaching the bottom of the channel, in which case if we get a regular divergence close to a previous support I will be looking to go long again, or atleast exit my trade.
Hope you found this helpful and good luck with your trading, although, if you trade based on luck you are already screwed.
Have a good day everyone
Natural Gas Daily About To Break Out Of Falling WedgeThe $NG daily has been doing battle with the 50dsma for 8 months. The falling wedge is about to explode to the upside.
Natural Gas Needs a Gap UpThe natural gas daily has been unsuccessfully trying to beat the 50dsma for 5 months now. A gap up may be needed to beat the 50 and the falling wedge.
Gold Where you going? UH UH! GET BACK DOWN!Please gold bugs look at the charts of oil and gold. As one hits the top the other hits the bottom. The breathing in and out of the world economy. The exhale is coming! Make sure to look at my $1500 call I just published linked below
NATURAL GAS | SELLPerfect Short Entry for Natural Gas.
Its in Sellzone for this weeks pivots, next weeks pivots and this months pivots and it also rejected resistance and also top of channel.
Long Trade Idea on Natural Gas + Weekly view by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your own setup
Main items we see on the 4hs chart:
a)Price is inside a descending channel
b)On MACD we can see a bullish divergence in the inner waves of the descending channel
c)On a closer look, we can see that the price broke out from the descending trendline and now is leaving a Pin bar on the zone
d)We will wait for a retest of the broken descending trendline and an ABC structure (like flag patterns) before taking long setups
e)Currently, this is just a trade idea we need to wait for more confirmations before opening positions.
Weekly vision:
Looking for a significant bottom in NGlittle bit lower is the most probable scenario but I’m looking for a bottom in the 2.00-2.1 region and a big rally into end of year
** Just an idea, NOT a forecast
NG bottomed? The strong rally today suggests that NG low of the year might be in, bullish divergence in play, biggest hurdle would be a close above last swing high at 2.488
* seasonally NG bottoms in the last week of July, so looks good timing wise
** Just an idea NOT a forecast
5 reasons to be bullish on Natural Gaz / $UGAZ1. Natural gaz is very weather dependent and seasonal. In the last 20 years, natural gaz went up 14 out of 20 times between Aug and Nov. The exceptions were (2000, 2005,2008, 2010, 2011 and 2015).
2. In the last 20 years, natural gaz was above $2.25 98% (eye ball) of the time. As you can see on the chart, $2.25 is a clear floor.
3. Adjusted for inflation for 20 yrs at 1.5% inflation rate, this floor should be in the $3.00 range in 2019.
4. Average price in the last 20 yrs has been around $4.50 ish. There is lots of room above!
5. With the FED's dovishness, the dollar will start softening soon. It may creep up a few more days but it will come down. Commodity will then have upward price pressure.
The price is falling at the moment. I would like to see it stabilize first but this looks like a pretty good odds trade to execute some time in August, below $2.25. The question is, ...How low can it go? My advice, keep an eye on it...
The above are only my opinions and are not a trading advice. This is just something to get you thinking... an idea, THAT'S ALL! I am not responsible nor liable for any financial losses you may incur following my ideas. Also know that leveraged ETFs such as UGAZ carry additional risks. READ the prospectus! Do your own analysis and due diligence PLEASE!
Good luck to all!
THE WEEK AHEAD: AAPL, GILD, X, BIDU; GDXJ, /NGEARNINGS
On initial screen for high rank/high implied, here are next week's potential winners for earnings-related volatility contraction plays: AAPL (31/27) (Tuesday after market close), X (52/54) (Thursday after market close), GILD (30/27) (Tuesday after market close), and BIDU (50/41) (Tuesday, but unspecified as to before or after market close). Because background implied on both AAPL and GILD are <50% (not what I like to see to play an earnings-related volatility contraction), those are cut from the list, leaving X and BIDU.
Pictured here is a tight short strangle in the September cycle paying 1.11/.56 at 50 max as of Friday close, with break evens at 12.89/18.11, and delta/theta metrics of 2.59/1.74. You can naturally go full on short straddle, but giving the setup some room between the put and call will give you the ability to adjust the strikes intra-trade without going inverted to do so, as you might have to if you went with the September 20th 15 short straddle, which is paying 2.29/.57 at 25 max with break evens at 12.71/17.29, and has delta/theta metrics of -10.62/1.99.
The rather unfortunate thing about BIDU is it's an ADR, so the precise announcement date and time is always up in the air until the last moment. That being said, the Sept 20th 95/100/130/135 iron condor is paying 1.46 at the mid (.73 at 50 max), has break evens at 98.54/131.46, and has -.17/1.82 delta/theta metrics. Naturally, I'd ordinarily like to collect one-third the width of the wings in credit, but it's hard to see what that will actually pay with markets showing wide in off hours.
BROAD MARKET
IWM (11/15)
EEM (7/16)
QQQ (6/15)
SPY (6/12)
EFA 0/11
VIX 12.16
Because of low implied in "local expiries" (<45 days 'til expiry or less), I've been going out a little farther in time than usual, taking advantage of implied volatility term structure,* which currently slopes from longer-dated expiries into this current state of affairs, (See RUT Iron Condor Trade, below), with the small added bonus being that longer-dated expiry implied volatility tends to expand less relative to shorter-dated implied volatility in the event of a "local" volatility pop, which is the usual concern with selling premium in low volatility environments. Naturally, I'm not going all crazy with these longer-dated setups, but staying small and keeping powder dry for more favorable volatility metrics in shorter duration expiries.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top Funds By Rank: GDXJ (78/35), GDX (53/29), SLV (48/20), GLD (39/12), TLT (25/10), SMH (25/24), USO (23/32), XOP (20/30).
GDXJ continues to have ideal exchange-traded fund metrics of >70 rank, greater than 35 implied for premium selling ... .
IRA TRADES
I pulled the trigger on a couple of "not a penny mores" last week in XLP and XLU. Suffice it to say, I did not get stellar credit collection/cost basis reduction for these, since we're far away from the prices at which I want to acquire, but will look to roll out on weakness and/or in increased volatility. It's either stick something out there and get paid to wait or wait for lower and get paid nothing ... .
HONORABLE MENTIONS
/NG, UNG: Natural gas is around 52-week lows here. Generally, I look for a seasonality play where "peak injection" has historically set up, but it's generally a crap shoot as to where that will occur (that pesky Mother Nature), and it's usually later in the year. I'm watching it, but won't get particularly excited to enter something bullish until we break 2.00. Ideally, I'm looking to get in at around that 2016 low ... .
* -- You can see this in RUT, with August implied at 15.3%, September at 16.1%, October at 16.7%, and December at 17.6%.
Natural Gas: Higher sell opportunity on the medium term.NG is trading within a steady Channel Down on 1W since February (RSI = 36.221, MACD = -0.203, Highs/Lows = -0.1685) with the price currently consolidating after making a Lower Low near 2.160. Based on the 1D RSI pattern, Natural Gas should now seek a higher level near 53.00 for rejection which inside the Channel Down will be in the form of a Lower High.
The expected horizon is around 65 days since the last Lower High. If it tests and gets rejected again on the MA50, then we will have an even stronger bearish reversal confirmation. The next Lower Low is projected in roughly 55 days after the last one. Under these circumstances we are going short with TP = 2.000.
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"Top and Bottom Analysis" NATGAS by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
Main Items we Observe on the Chart:
-Price is inside an ascending channel
-Currently, the price is against a Major Support zone
and facing the lower trendline of the ascending channel
-We draw a descending trendline, we expect that to be broken before taking any long setup.
Based on this if price closes above 2.597 we expect a continuation of the bullish movement towards the upper trendline of the ascending channel at 2.723
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
- Weekly:
-Daily:
$ung $ugaz $boil $ng_f - Nat Gas has same setup as last FebruarySeasonality wise nat gas should rally towards $3.00 over the next few weeks.
$ung $ugaz $boil - Nat gas setting up for yet another rallyRecently, we warned that Natural Gas may set up another opportunity for traders to buy into a support zone below $2.70 with a selling range near or above $3.00. Our upside target zone is between $3.25 and $3.45. The price of Natural Gas has recently fallen below $2.69 and we believe this could be the start of a setup for skilled traders to identify key buying opportunity in preparation for a quick +8% to +15% upside swing.
Historically, March and April have been pretty solid months for Natural Gas. Let’s go over the historical data using three different seasonality charts which all point to higher prices.
Taking a look at the data, above for both March and April it appears we should have a positive price outcome over the next 20+ trading sessions. Thus, we can determine that the likelihood of a positive price swing between now and the end of April is highly likely.
When we take a look at the chart data to see how our BUY and SELL zones are setting up, it becomes clear that any opportunity to BUY into the lower support channel, with a moderate degree of risk, could result in a very nice profit potential of between $0.35 to $0.70 on data that supports the Bullish potential as a 200%~220% advantage over downside potential.
Take a look at the data that we are presenting and try to understand that these types of historical price triggers are not foolproof, yet they do provide a clear advantage. They allow us to see if and when there is any type of advantage to our decision making and if we can identify any real opportunity for future success. We believe any further downside price activity in Natural Gas will result in additional opportunities for Long trades with $2.45 being our absolute low entry target. Our upside exit target would be any level above $2.95, or higher, and our ultimate target objective would be $3.15 or higher. Our last trade in natural gas (UGAZ) gave us 30% return in just two weeks in February!
This could be another opportunity for a trader to target a quick 8% to 15% swing trade in Natural Gas over the next 20+ days. Time to put Natural Gas on your radar again!
Are you ready for this next move? Want to know how we can help you find and execute better trades? Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to get our, technical indicators, market analysis, daily videos and trade alerts.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
NG (National Grid) long LSE:NG.
A stock I will be keeping a close eye on this week is NG or national Grid a ulisities giant with a market cap of 29 billion, it is the largest UK provider of energy and has a presence in the US market. NG has struggled since May to break the 864 level and is approaching that zone again, ten day volume is massively below its longer run three month average indicating that investors are on the sidelines. After three previous attempts at this level fourth time's the charm, however I would like to see some consolidation under the round number support before a break out on high volume. The game plan is to place a stop order at 864.1 sey for a breakout from this level, a proper stop loss can be determined after confirmation of the breakout. I hope you like this idea and as always feel free to pick it apart and tell me where i could be wrong, if you enjoy the content and wish to see more give me a follow any support you can offer would be appreciated happy trading.
Joe
NatGas Analysis A brief summary of our previous analysis: the level at 2.97$ is a strong support, the cyclical movements of this commodity, makes us think that that the price will return to the area 3.40 before the spring and then continue downwards with target 2.80 / 2.60 $ in the summer. Even from a fundamental point of view we expect a rebound from these areas, as a decrease in temperatures is expected in this second part of winter, favoring a greater consumption of gas. So we recommend a long position with target at 3.4$.
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Huge symmetrical triangle on Natural GasThis is a big one, I want this chart in my history. Giant flag/symmetrical triangle.
Warmer Dec than expected and we break down hard! But this is a bullish pattern and continues upwards. Lots of ways to play it, might be wise to just wait for a resolution/breakout first instead of front running.
