Ng!1
Natural Gas Bull Run Winter 2018-2019Bull Flag & breakout on weekly chart.
Cloud twist, and impending EMA Crossovers support the move. Measured moves point to $4.8-$5.3.
Will look for pullback/consolidation leading up to breakout and go long if charts continue to support the move.
Natural Gas - Making movesWith consistence demand and winter approaching it seems NG1! is about to make it moves. Make sure you are on right side of NG1! Chart is just an idea. Let's see where it goes.
NG's price moves in a decreasing trend... The downward trend is expected to continue. Fundamentally, the Randgold / Barrick fusion does not help the company either. The decrease is expected in a triple wave structure that can be formed along a downward channel. The target price is around 2.60 usd.
NATURAL GAS LONG-TERM OUTLOOK TO GO 'SHORT'I usually short term trade/swing trade so often trade support and resistance no matter market trend, this would be on 1H (1 hour) time view and below, long-term views will be depicted on the 4H (4 hours) and 1D (1day) view, like this chart.
Looking at the long-term analysis on the 4H and 1D view of natural gas, it looks like it has more or less finished an upside and headed downward some. There was possible revisit to 3.02-3.07, but market seems to be done going up for now. This is strongly supported by the evening doji star depicted on the 1D view which is a solid indication of market to head down.
I would say anywhere now is a good area to short the market, or you can look at 1HR view (intended for short-term trade) for a more suitable entry point to go short. Suitable entry point being when many indicators are corresponding a short for the 1HR view.
I suggest looking a 2.828 and 2.757 as possible exit points when shorting.
Please remember to look at what indicators are telling you if you can understand some, as they would likely help you determine whether to get in trade for a confirmed downfall. Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
NG short @ Daily SupportPretty simple -- if price drops through the green box, I'm looking for shorts on the 15m/H1 depending on the time of day.
NG doesn't move as nicely as more contracts, but you'll still see strong moves at the right areas. The more it compresses BEFORE attempting a breakout short, the more I like the trade idea.
Targets hit. Near the 1W support, resuming the uptrend. Long.TP = 2.840 hit as the 1D Channel Down (MACD = -0.013, B/BP = -0.0240) on Natural Gas aggressively expanded to a 2.752 Lower Low. Since this value was too close to our second TP = 2.740, we decided to close all shorts as the RSI = 45.438, STOCHRSI = 53.580, CCI = -33.7393, Highs/Lows = 0 turned neutral. As NG1! is trading near the 1W 2.696 support, we are starting to build up our long position for the expected 3.020 Resistance test, having tough a more moderate TP = 2.978. If the 2.696 support is tested, we will open the second and last long of this estimated bullish 1D leg.
Potential Trade Idea: Long Heating Oil/Short NatGasRecently our Unum Trading Desk analyst, Lester Davids identified a potential pairs trade on Heating Oil and Nat Gas.
"I am bullish on NatGas with a medium term view. We recently saw a break of the downward trend with an inverse head and shoulder developing. In the short term though, we could see a pullback following the breakout. On that basis, one could be short NG and Long Heating Oil."
We decided to wait for a better entry level on the medium term trade, rather than playing the ultra-short term reversal. It is now approaching our entry point.
On the NG chart:
"NG is approaching incline support around the $2.77 level. We also have horizontal support near $2.74. Potential buy/long opportunity. Keep on the watchlist for possible entry."
For the pair we want to LONG NG and SHORT Heating Oil.
If you want more details on the trade email tradingdesk@unum.co.za
Targets hit. Now Bullish reversal in full progress. Long.The previous 2.779, 2.747 Targets have been hit as the downtrend on Natural Gas was completed on 1D with a near full test of the 2.696 support. 1D is now bullish again on RSI = 55.894, Highs/Lows = 0.0630, BBP @ 0.0800) having just crossed the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (2.837). With such momentum, we expect the 0.500 to be next (2.879). We are long with TP = 2.978 (0.786 Fibonacci).
Bullish 0.5 Fib Retrace Natural Gas2.7 level support established in May. Respected on 7/19 and a quick retest today. Unless it dumps into close today, I consider this a daily reversal candle. I expect a 50% retrace of the most recent downswing for a ~5% gain in the next 1-3 weeks.
Entry: 2.731
Target: 2.863
Stop: 2.648
NG at it's key levelNG this week is imp. It will decide it's course to either 2.9 or 2.4-2.5. Keep an eye. Play DGAZ/UGAZ accordingly. Layer in if you decide to go in.
A winds of change?ngas today couildnt break the flag patern today 2.98 is seems to be a big resis.
first target for short is 2.87 if this wont hold this time will next stop 2.8 and then 2.73
SL at 2.99
Bullish target reached, now pulling back to gather momentum forNG has reached our previous TP = 2.900 and now faces the Resistance of the High extreme line. 4H is a Channel Up but has reached near overbought levels (RSI = 69.332, STOCHRSI = 92.540, Williams = -19.847) with 2.881 its support/ Higher Low. This is expected to break and move to the Higher Low of the proper 1D Channel Up (RSI = 65.173, Highs/Lows = 0.0691) near 2.779. The 2.779 - 2.830 area is a buy zone for the next bullish leg to 3.000 (TP). If it makes also a low "extreme" near 2.747 it shouldn't alarm us since it's been also done on March 26.
Medium term Uptrend on Natural GasThe price is on a 1D Channel Up (RSI = 57.179, Highs/Lows = 0.011). As seen on the chart a Higher Low needs to be price and we have two scenarios for that: soft support at 2.765 and hard support at 2.740. We will use both spots as long entries for a potential Higher High TP = 2.900.
Natural gas one possibilityThis is the weekly chart of the natural gas. you can see the long term trendlines.
It may test the one of trendlines. If it does, it'll be a possible long opportunity.
I'll stay cautious with this idea, because it can just bounce before reaching the trendline. I would never go short with rising global demand.
NG1! NGH2018 Natural Gas BearLooking back over previous few years price action we can see a sharp trend this time of year for natural gas futures.
The technical measurement Williams%R shows a strong Bear trend is either in play or is pointing to a very strong reversal.
The prior 2 days of movement NG printed a nice spike upwards followed by a strong retracement hitting new lows.
This most recent retracement down was either a move to shake out long retailers or we are beginning to see new lows for NG.
Keep bets small.
Fibonacci retracement price level provided from most recent move.
Natural Gas "Historical Evidence discovered"Yep. The title says it all. I have found evidence to support what I believe is future upward price movement over the next 2 months. After many many hours of exhaustive research, I can say with 100% certainty, backed up by years and years of historical data that......IT GETS COLD IN THE WINTER! Just some light humor.
So I have two price targets for this upward move. This is not to be confused with what I think is going to happen by February (a much higher high at least $4.10), I'm talking short term...2 weeks from now before a decent pullback. The first is for Natural gas to reach the 100% measured move of "W" at $3.30, which happened in the beginning of November. There is a pretty good resistance level there as well. The 2nd price target, which is what I am hoping for and which makes a little more sense to me, is the 100% measured move of the first part of this current "Y" wave that began last week. That is the FIB that is colored purple. There is a gap to be filled there AND, a 50% typical correction for this WXY wave move would bring it down to retest the trend line and also stay within the yellow path.
As far as how this would equate to UGAZ prices.....I really don't know yet. I watch the NG chart to get an idea of when we are close to a trend change for UGAZ. I will be watching the structure on the daily to try to figure out where we are in the wave count and weather or not we are close to a warm weather reversal. GL
