SELL NATURAL GAS BELOW 20 EMA FOR 50 EMANATURAL GAS MOVING CLOSURE TO 50 EMA, A LITTLE SUPPORT AT 20 EMA. ADVICE TO SELL BELOW 20 EMA FOR TGT OF 50 EMA, A SHAPE OF REVERSE CUP WITH HANDLE IS ALSO FORMED IN MCX ON DAILY CHART. KEEP EARNING.
NG
Long - NG Great Long Position between 2 - 2.2 Long - NG Great Long Position between 2 - 2.2
Previous Analysis
NATURAL GAS Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish on the 4H MA50 or if the Channel Up breaks upwards.
Target: 2.650 and if 2.680 breaks (+12% from low) potential extension towards 3.000 (+27% from low).
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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart Forming a Top?Bullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September.
Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages.
Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart , RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top.
National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
Pullback or Break $2.49 in NG? 8/20/2020NG is still at a crossroads. It's stuck between 2 trend lines.
NG has two paths that it could take at this specific level.
1) More likely - NG pulls back first just in time for the September slump. Mind you, there are several supports below. We got that trend line support, the 400 DMA, the 300 DMA, and the 200 DMA. The lowest that I can see this going down is 1.97. More likely, either 2.08 or 2.24 will be the support that will hold. September is usually a good time to scale in longs. By the time October nears, that's when NG starts ramping up again. $5 will not be out of the question - as long as NG's sentiment is still very bearish.
2) Less likely - NG breaks 2.49 resistance. If that happens, there is not much stopping NG from reaching the mid 2.70s.
Either way, I'll long from support or when resistance breaks.
The lesson from NG bears? You don't short near historic lows. If you do, the math will be against you.
NATURAL GAS Sell SignalPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the price is testing the Higher Highs trend-line of the pattern. RSI also close to a top.
Target: 1.950 (potential Golden Cross).
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Expecting a correction before the new bullish movement / NatGasMain items we can see on the chart:
a) The price was inside a range after reaching a major Support Zone
b) Currently, the price has broken the range with a solid bullish movement
c) Now we are expecting a clear correction about 3 weeks
d) If that happens we will be ready to take long positions based on our weekly perspective
Weekly Perspective
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Natural Gas: Sell opportunity within the Megaphone.NG hit today the Higher High trend-line of the Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since the start of the year (1D RSI = 69.350, MACD = 0.105, ADX = 33.132). The 1D MACD has entered its 1 year Sell Zone. We are taking this as a strong Sell Opportunity at least towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which at the moment is at 1.846. This idea is invalidated if today's High breaks, which will in turn break the Megaphone.
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Natural Gas intradayLong and short levels shown..
Use 2 lots for entry. 1st one close @ T1, 2nd at T2....Levels consistent for the day. Take and repeat entries as and when they trigger.SL will be opposite entry..
Clean breakout of the weekly trendline on NATGASMain items we can see on the chart:
a) The main idea here is to wait for the same pattern that happened on the previous 2 reversal movements and assume it will happen something similar now
b) The first item is a clear breakout of the descending structure. That, it's happening right now, this breakout will be enough to match with the previous scenarios
c) Second, we need a correction, the characteristics of it must be a duration between 2 to 4 weeks at least, if that happens the correction would be ready
d) If we have all the previous confirmations we will be prepared to trade, the target we will be aiming for is the monthly descending trendline
e) Remember that this type of trades are swing style and requires a lot of patience.
Is this year any different?5 years running July has seen a downtrend. Is this year any different or is it even worse than average?
UNG: NG Natural Gas Declining Through Summer on Low DemandNG Natural Gas August futures contract has been declining on cancelled LNG shipments and low national demand. US supply keeps steady outpacing demand. US demand started improving on June 21st due to reopening of NY-NJ-PA economies. However, Texas extended its lockdowns, counteracting positive effect of the East Coast. Seasonal heat is high. But with 40-50 August LNG shipments cancelled, the market may remain in oversupplied state for months to come.
August 24th may be a potential turning point for natural gas. Prices are likely to continue decline under current oversupplied conditions. Analysts see target support at $1.25, 1995 low, and then at $1.00, all-time low. Resistance is seen at $1.52, and $1.60 levels.
Technicals: Daily chart is pointing to a neat-term bottom with potential upward move within declining channel. NG rolled into August contract, which was trading higher than July contract, which could explain a Friday pop. There is a possibility for a near-term price improvement to $1.65- $1.75 level (tentative), between July 1st and July 17th, with continuing decline after mid July.
4HS Bearish Scenario + Trade idea on NATGAS by ThinkingAntsOkMain Items we can see on the chart:
a) The price has broken a major support zone
b) Before that happened we observed a consolidation of 150 days
c) Now we can see a bearish breakout and this is the way we will trade it
d) Based on the previous scenario we had a breakout and then a pullback, that's the same logic of what we will be waiting
e) If the pullback happens we will set orders below the structure and our Target will be the 2nd support zone.
NG: UGAZ: Natural Gas Consolidating Lower. Demand Improving.NG Natural Gas July futures contract continues declining on recent lower demand. Fundamentals are still bearish: low LNG exports, 4 Bcd vs 9 Bcd in the winter, and cooler weather over North East. The temperature is expected go higher on June 25-28, per NatGasWeather. With economy reopening on June 20-21, EIA weekly report may turn bullish in the 1st week of July.
The chart is oversold; buyers are coming in at $1.60 level. Last week build was 93 bcf. A build below 90 bcf would be a bullish sign. A short-covering rally may happen soon in anticipation of improving demand.
Lower prices are still possible, if LNG exports do not improve, or weather does not prove to be hot enough. Yet, reopening of the economy should boost demand significantly moving into July.
Long NGNG exhausted its continuation of previous day trend...Best time to long now...SL as shown or as per your appetite.
NG: Natural Gas Further ConsolidationNatural Gas NG July futures bounced last week on warmer weather and production cuts. On Friday we saw a pullback, as weather forecasts lost some CDDs (cooling degree days). UNG fund started August contract roll on June 12 -17.
Technicals: Daily and 4 Hr chart are pointing toward lower prices; 1 Hr chart is forming a bottom. We may have a short-term bounce from lower levels, but overall direction is pointing toward lower prices, or consolidation.
Fundamentals: demand/supply balance remains bearish in the near-term; prolonged heat is required to produce a rally in prices, although the number of rigs has declined by 7. Second half of June was expected to be hotter per last week's forecast, but on Friday, weather pattern turned cooler, with lower demand for cooling. Until the next heat wave emerges, we may be facing lower prices.
Crude oil prices are declining due to high inventories build and worries about slow economic recovery, adding to the bearish picture.
On the positive note, economy is reopening in higher consumption states, NY, NJ, and PA on June 20th. Weekly EIA report capturing this period may show higher consumption two weeks from now. Until then, a strong prolonged heat wave is required to change current bearish price pattern.
Trading the Range on NatGas by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the 4hs chart:
a) The price is inside a Huge 4HS range
b) Both sides have been tested multiple times
c) Currently, we can see a corrective Structure in the middle of the range after bouncing from the lower zone
d) If the Corrective Structure is broken with a bullish movement, we expect a continuation of it towards the Resistance zone
e) TRADING OPPORTUNITIES: Wait for the Breakout and look for 1h corrections
