Natural Gas Price Levels July 10Natural gas continued higher after brief consolidation before running into resistance.
Two ways of looking at natural gas price action. The first is the major low is in and bulls have proven that. The other is price was oversold and is only a strong counter trend rally due to hot temperatures and shorts taking profit.
I've shown possible price action for the coming week based on support and resistance levels.
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Natural Gas Daily Cycle Bullish ScenarioThis bullish scenario is only for reference, I do not consider it the most likely outcome.
For the bulls to turn this into a recovery likely need to see only brief consolidation before continuation.
As much as this is a case for the bulls it is a cautionary message for the bears. Trade with a open mind and remain protected at all time if the bulls got momentum it may happen quickly once shorts start covering and fomo from those left behind sets in.
Natural Gas Daily Cycle Neutral and Bearish TargetsSince natural gas has made new lows and continued the downtrend it is likely price actual is down or possibly sideways for the remainder of summer.
Will be watching price action structure over the next few days.
Due to current fundamentals $1.30 may be on the high side for bearish price action. It would be very possible for price to declined substantially if fundamentals deteriorate further.
Natural Gas: Excellent Buy Opportunity for Long-term Investors.Natural Gas is trading within a Channel Down (on the log scale) on the 1W chart (RSI = 45.584, MACD = -0.111, ADX = 31.401) since 2009. This pattern provides very accurate Cycles, bullish when a Lower Low is made (green arrows) and bearish when a Lower High is made (red arrows).
At the moment the price has just made contact with the Lower Low trend-line, making Natural Gas an automatic long-term buy opportunity for the next 2-3 years. Keep a few reserves for the lower slope dotted Lower Low trend-line for one last buy if needed. Depending on your risk tolerance book the profit just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and re-buy on the test of the 1W MA50 as support. This pattern took place on the previous two Cycles.
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Natural Gas - Summer 2020As of now, expecting lots of chop within a range between $1.50 and $1.83 all Summer.
Supply is abundant and demand is slow however, bankruptcies from 25-year low prices will soon take chunks out of production and demand may have bottomed already. Hot weather forecasts in high demand states (the South and Northeast) should also pop prices. Risk to the downside is if New York starts locking down again, signalling more demand loss on the way.
Trade strategy:
Buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top and/or on bounces from the 200 (4hr) EMA
If there is a daily close below $1.50 or some kind of big push below that level I'll close all positions.
Active trades ($QG Natural Gas E-Micro Futures):
+1 @ $1.53
Natural Gas - Good option for long-term investmentPrice of the Natural Gas is on the floor and this situation is bad for most of the companies and when the summer go away we will use more gas and the price will go higher (supply/demand). (Possible correction till 1.40$-1.50$).
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