Natural Gas Analysis and ForecastBearish pressure is expected to persist in the coming days or week due to increased natural gas production following a June explosion that shut down a Texas LNG facility. The facility is expected to take at least two weeks to become operational again, but bullish pressure may return once it does as well as if winter conditions return in late January or early February. If the 3.500 level is broken, prices may increase to the range of 4.500-5.000 before a possible drop again. NYMEX:NG1!
Ng1
EWT – Is Natural Gas Prepared for a Reversal?In our previous article, we discussed impulsive wave C and its continuation. On 20 January 2023 , Price achieved our all given targets.
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Timeframe :
MCX Natural gas has accomplished the corrective wave B and started falling for impulsive wave C. Price has given a reversal from previous wave C, but it is no conclusive evidence that it has completed wave c.
When it comes to confirmation, Traders should watch the level of 313 . If the price breaks out the 313 , it will enter into the parallel channel. Traders can buy for the following targets: 321 – 340 – 366 .
Don’t forget prices are moving outside the channel, which is a negative point for traders. Bearish continuation is possible if the price sustains below wave (4).
I will update further information soon.
NATURAL GAS Astounding multi-year Cycles showing sell's not overThis is not the first time we look into Natural Gas (NG1!) and its long-term patterns. We have coined its Multi-year Cycles Theory in the past and it is time to extend on it a little on the 1W time-frame.
Typically investors ask us for 1D analysis such as the following we published 2 months ago (November 24 2022) and helped us identify the conditions that would fulfil the long-term bearish reversal we expected:
As you see NG delivered the expected drop since it closed below its 1W MA100 and even hit and closed below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Based on this multi-decade blueprint, this is a strong bearish continuation signal. As the chart shows, NG technically makes 4 year Cycles (bottom-to-bottom, top-to-top), which failed only one time in 30 years. Based on this, there is still significant time and range for the price to drop.
The first stop is the (grey) High Volatility Zone, where the price typically trades for a longer-than-usual period of time. We need to keep an eye on the RSI on the 1M time-frame and its Higher Lows trend-line. If its holds, expect a bounce, in a similar fashion as the Lower Highs from May 2009 to February 2016. If they break, we expect first the 1.600 level to be tested as a Support and potentially under conditions (which we will analyze extensively if this time comes), the prices Lower Lows trend-line.
Keep in mind that the RSI is always helpful and in recent months in particular, as its Bearish Divergence on Lower Highs (against the price's Higher Highs) from September 2021 to August 2022 projected the peak.
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Natural Gas Chart looking interestingIt is safe to say that NG has been bleed out recently, and is looking very oversold. I am watching closely here for a long position. Momentum looks like it may shift bullish soon.
Butterfly Still in Play for Natural Gas NG!Butterfly still in play
1) XB should be 0.786. Here we have 0.794 so I would accept it. Tick
2) AC should range between 0.392 to 0.886. Here it is 0.774. Tick
3) BD should range between 1.618 and 2.618. Here it is 2.128 . Not complete yet but Trending!
4) XB should range between 1.27 and 1.618. Here it is 1.493. Not complete yet but Trending!
Let's see what the price action does. I believe a reversal is due now to the upside.
Note: XB to 1.618 would be at the price of 3. So still downside risk.
💡 (NGas) NG1! Will it be ready for upside ?Hello every one
If the triangle seems to be broken, maybe the gas will return from these price ranges, and I think there is a high probability that we are now at the bottom of the gas price. A triangle has been drawn that if the candles leave the upper part of the triangle, there is a possibility of an upward trend. Be sure to keep an eye on the chart and don't miss this wonderful opportunity.
What do you think? I'm happy to comment❤️🌹
Natural Gas is looking for a bounceWe could see a move up in Natural Gas this week based on some indicators that I will explore in this idea.
Natural Gas 2023 Targets - $3.81 , $3.39Natural Gas has been hanging on key support trend line (WHITE) running from Jun 2020.. If that level gets breached, expect Natural Gas to hit immediate target $4.73 (Yellow Line).
Then eventually we see the targets $3.81 (Orange line) and 3.39 (Green line) in 2023. With economy running into risks of recession in 2023, we'll see pullbacks in NG.
We'll not go to the targets directly, expect technical bounces at the key support levels - $4.73 , $3.81 and $3.39.
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): How to Buy With Confirmation 💨
Natural Gas formed a harmonic abcd pattern on a weekly.
Its completion point matches perfectly with a horizontal key level.
I am currently looking for a confirmation to buy.
I will look for a bullish breakout of a falling channel on 4H.
It will confirm the strength of bulls.
Goals will be 4.08 / 4.36
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of a blue area will push the market lower.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
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natural gas(henry hub)Don't you think the gas has fallen too much!? In my opinion, after meeting the demand and breaking the trend, it will go towards full neck gap
The new refinery has started working and we saw the fall, but now the weather is getting colder
NG Long IdeaNG must hold this area of support. Many factors at play here and we are still in prime time winter. I believe a long play here is wise.
Trade safe.
Natural Gas: At decision point. On 12.17.22 I thought natural gas may soon turn up at around 5.18. (see link below if interested). Clearly that was premature. It stayed in a down trend until now. A clear example why when something is in a up or down trend you best wait for price action (candle stick pattern, trend line break) to support that a turn around is about to occur. Then you have the recent low or high to be a stop point if wrong.
The overall pattern has not changed. But if this EWT count is correct wave 3 should not cross below the high of wave 1. We still have a bullish divergence in the daily RSI. We still have an expanding triangle at wave 3. with the last wave down current having .a=.c. and ending at a possible support/resistance area. So this would seem like a good place to finally so up. BUT wait for price action to support this idea.
Best to you. Have a great week.
Natural gas Elliott wave analysisAnalysis does not take account of current geopolitical situation and is based solely on Elliott wave analysis.
I would assume the it will follow the black more than the red scenario.
5.80 is the point where you would exit most of your shorts.
Natural gas: When will the bloodshed stop?Natural gas prices (US Henry Hub) plunged 20% in the first week of 2023, dropping below pre-Russian invasion of Ukraine levels and continuing losses seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The sell-off was violent, mimicking a falling knife pattern, with prices sliding back to levels seen towards the end of 2021 and the RSI returning to oversold territory. aPrices are now two standard deviations lower than the 20-day moving average, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages trade 70% and 100% above, respectively, than current prices. The decline from the highs reached in August is around 65%.
It appears that the apocalypse has arrived for the asset class that rose by 100% in the first eleven months of 2022, outperforming all major markets, only to lose all of its profits in one month.
Extremely high temperatures in Europe and the United States over the winter season kept natural gas supplies plentiful, causing prices to fall. According to NOAA predictions, temperatures on the North American continent will be above normal again in January 2023.
Prices for natural gas have hit a support level not seen in over a year, suggesting that an abundance of pessimism is already included into market valuations. Below this level of support, the next level to watch is 3.02 (June 2021 lows) and the psychological 3.00 level. That would imply a 70% loss from the peak, which would support some dip buying given that the market has not yet fully resolved the 2022 geopolitical issues.
In this case, technical analysis suggests that further declines are likely to be contained; similar oversold RSI levels in the past have been followed by weeks of bullish price action, suggesting that this sharp decline may not be without some upward potential. Prices might return to 4.47, the level at which they traded on the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
NATURAL GAS Potential rebound but bearish long-term.Last time we gave a signal on Natural Gas (NG1!) in late November, we caught a perfect rejection and sell entry for a strong bearish December trend:
As you see, the price even closed below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), breaking its previous 1 year Bullish Megaphone pattern, so the trend is confirmed as bearish long-term. By doing so, it has formed a Channel Down whose bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) was hit and the price bounced yesterday. Today though it resumed the downtrend.
We believe the key here is the RSI on the 1W time-frame and the Falling Wedge pattern we identified last time. This is now on its bottom as it was on October 21 2022 Low, which caused the short-term rebound to a Lower High for the Channel Down.
As long as it holds, we expect the price to rebound on the short-term in order to test the 1W MA100 and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A rejection there should extend the Channel Down to a new Lower Low. A break of the Channel Down downwards earlier, will simply accelerate the downtrend to the 0.618 Fibonacci and the long-term Support Zone just above the 0.786 Fib. Notice that right now the price is on the 0.5 Fibonacci.
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NATURAL GAS🔥 breakoutNG1! broke down out of the raising wedge (yellow) and I expect further downside. It will prolly not be in straight line, pullbacks along the way expected. Actually now we are sitting at the support zone 7.78 - 7.55, so bounce up or sideways before next leg down is possible. Target being the support zone 6.46-5.95 and potentially the lime uptrendline.
Also there is a upward channel (blue) on the log scale:
Will we test the channel lower edge?
Let me know in the comments how much has your gas bill risen if you already pay new price.
Check my other stuff in related ideas.
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⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.