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Can UGAZ Recover? Comparing UGAZ and Natural GasA serious look at what to expect from UGAZ if natural gas changes it's trend and starts a bull rally. Many are stuck in UGAZ since 2019, natural gas is down 47% and UGAZ 89% from the November high. UGAZ is not down 3 times natural gas due to the rebalancing that occurs, unless there is a decline of more then 33% in one day it is not possible for UGAZ to go to $0. I must warn that this is hypothetical and to show the problem with waiting for UGAZ to recover. If natural gas breaks to new lows the percent UGAZ goes up will remain about the same but it will be from a lower dollar value. It is likely at some point in the next 1-2 years natural gas makes it back to $2.90 from the current lows that will be about 90%. Since UGAZ moves 3 times natural gas that is about 270% but due to the decay UGAZ experiences it is more like to go up a maximum of 180%. Generously using the 270% that is about $80. if we use the more realistic 180% that is $62. These number are well below what most would have bought UGAZ for in 2019. UGAZ is an extremely risky investing product and unless you are very experienced and completely understand how it works you should not consider investing in it. See charts below for potential downside and upside going forward.
U
by Natural_Gas_Trader
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Even Lower Now??? Important Warning! hey guys, to be honest with you I expected a much stronger bullish reaction from all time's market low on natgast than this small pullback. but the reality is overwhelmingly bearish on natgas. we already see a new weekly lower close and this week will show us whether the market is able to close below 1.575 - all time's structure low. if so, the market will be trading in the no man's land and bearish continuation may proceed. take it into consideration and adjust your trading plan accordingly! good luck!
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
5
Natural Gas Daily Trend Change ExampleThe green line is an example of what would be needed to confirm the daily trend change. We must remain open to all possibilities natural gas may be due for a sustained rally but that doesn't mean it has too. After a bottom there will be a rally it is critical that after some consolidation the price continues higher. If the price is not able to continue high it will be a huge red flag and increases the probability of another bearish cycle. Where this cycle bottoms does not matter, it is the price action that happens after the bottom that matters.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Natural_Gas_Trader
UNG Performance During 2012 and 2016 RalliesThis is a continuation of my 2020 bull rally theory, finding the best way of capitalizing on the potential opportunity in front of us is the next step. UNG follows the price of natural gas fairly well, UNG does experience rolling decay when futures are in contago. Contago is typical for natural gas futures. Because of the rolling decay holding UNG long term is not a good strategy. While not nearly as bad as UGAZ it still reduces possible gains over the long term. UNG is predictable and a good option for novice investors looking to get into natural gas trading. UNG would be a good hold for the daily cycle and a ok hold for the weekly cycle. Weekly cycle would be positions attempting to take advantage of the seasonal swings. UNG options may represent one of the greatest opportunities, due to the risk of options having a predictable ETF like UNG to trade them on makes success more achievable.
AMEX:UNG
by Natural_Gas_Trader
DGAZ Performance During 2012 and 2016 RalliesThis is a continuation of my 2020 bull rally theory, finding the best way of capitalizing on the potential opportunity in front of us is the next step. DGAZ performed as expected in a bull rally, substantial losses are seen during the initial rally from cycle low to following heating season. The losses continued from initial high to monthly cycle high but the volatility would make holding very difficult. Shorting DGAZ is a very viable option to take advantage of the initial bounce, it would be a bit volatile holding for the approximate 8 months expected. Closing and reopening the position based on the daily cycle would reduce the volatility and likely increase overall return. DGAZ being a leveraged product has significant decay by shorting it this decay will be working in favor of the position.
D
by Natural_Gas_Trader
Natural Gas Monthly Cycle UpdateMonthly cycle lows are typically followed by extended bull rallies, it is anticipated that this trend will continue. The extended downtrend since late 2018 is similar to past cycles. Caution must still be exercised this is a somewhat rare opportunity but we must remain protective of our capital. The world is in a unique situation currently and this may affect the expected outcome. It also needs to be noted that natural gas is in a long term downtrend, with the break of the 2016 low natural gas has now been in downtrend for 15 years. Monthly cycle low is likely to occur with the next daily cycle low around April 10. See other charts below for reference.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Natural_Gas_Trader
Natural Gas Futures Weekly Cycle UpdateWhen this cycle ends a long term bull rally would be expected similar to what occurred in 2016 and 2012 but with the current situation EXTREME CAUTION must be exercised. I can not stress this enough, protect your capital at all costs in this environment. Just because the market should do something doesn't mean it has too, do not try to tell the market what to do. This cycle low has the potential to be the bull run everyone has been waiting for but many of the Bulls will have no money left after the past year. This is not unusual for natural gas either, it can clearly be seen that natural gas is in a long term down trend. This chart doesn't go back far enough but natural gas has been in a down trend since 2005 with extreme counter trend rallies about every 4 years. These countertrend rallies present huge opportunity in both directions. Blue rectangles show heating season, weekly cycle low usually happens in February, March or April. Cycle length getting long with last low in August. Daily cycle suggesting a low around April 10 but weekly cycle is extended and wouldn't be surprising to occur sooner. This cycle low will also likely be a monthly cycle low with previous lows in 2016 and 2012, trend line from those lows is potential target. See daily cycle targets chart for other possibilities. See other charts below for reference.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Natural_Gas_Trader