Natural Gas (up or down) Pick your poisonIn my own opinion, since Natural Gas first landed on the market in 2004, it has 1 all time low at 1.574, which is lower than 2004 and since then we have never tested this bottom again. I think with news of coronavirus, it is the perfect opportunity for this level to be tested and i think it will go much further down creating a new low for natural gas.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that this chart is an opinion based chart only. Please trade at your own risk
Ng1
Natural Gas Daily Cycle UpdateNatural gas had a countertrend rally inline with the size and timeframe expected. The severity of this pull back is yet to be determined and all price targets are still in play. There is the possibility bulls could show up, there is sufficient space for a higher low to be created and negate the bearish case. See the related ideas below for the charts this one continues to build on.
Natural Gas Countertrend Rally Position PlanningThis chart is position planning based on the Daily Cycles Target and Countertrend Rally charts published last week.
Patiently waiting for this rally to fail.
UNG puts take advantage of the expected decay.
Enter on confirmed bearish hourly trend change.
Exits:
extreme bullish reversal, exit if hourly down trend fails
bullish daily higher low, exit on hourly uptrend confirmed
bearish continuation, assess situation at each price target
Natural Gas Countertrend Rally Expected Next WeekNatural gas has regular countertrend rallies.
The pink arrows are when the daily cycle turned bearish, a counter trend rally started soon after.
Countertrend rallys typical have gone up to the previous consolidation level, this would be approximately $1.80.
Trading sideways is also a possibility if the bulls can not get any momentum, similar to what was seen in mid to late January.
Natural Gas Futures Daily Cycle TargetsDaily cycle low is expected around April 10.
Price target is $1.60 to about $1.30
$1.60 price target - 2016 low providing support.
$1.50 price target - 25% from cycle high, 2 previous daily cycles were about 25% from cycle high to cycle low
$1.30 price target - this is more an area and very difficult to estimate. This would be based mainly on the long term trend line from the lows in 2012 and 2016. 2 other trend lines point to this area also, the trend line from 2019 from the bull run crash and the trend line since the late 2019 high.
Once the price is below $1.60 it could become very volatile.
NATGAS - price bounce from monthly supportThe US Natural Gas is now trading at a monthly low. From a technical perspective, price is now trading in the accumulation zone, MA's about to cross we expect the next push to the upside.
Price is growing with increasing volume, now retraced to the previous resistance now acting as support. Therefore we will long the commodity at the price of $1.89 per cubic feet.
The first target is the downwards trendline, at price $2.10. From there a retest of the low might happen. Our longer-term view on NATGAS is still bullish.
The past 5 weeks of Natural Gas Storage showed less than forecast, an increase in demand is signaled.
Traders if you follow this idea, we recommend entering with prudence and proper risk management according to your strategy.
Know your trading conditions for this asset. Spreads and lot sizes are high, do the research first.
Natural Gas Down -3.5% Falling from Week HighsHeadlines:
• Crude Futures Plummet on Growing Concerns About Coronavirus and its Global Spread
• US Indexes Take Hit as Global Risk-Off Play’s Out With all Indexes Down -3%
• Saudi Aramco Gets Approval for Development of the Al-Jafoura Field
• Natural Gas down more than -3.5% falling from week highs
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Bullish Forecast
natgas has surely broken a strong horizontal resistance to the upside.
I believe that the price may now retrace a bit and then the bullish tendency will proceed
with potential continuation to 2.08 level - next structure resistance.
trading against the trend, control your risk with tight stops!
good luck!
Commodities Pick Up With Natural Gas Leading The Charge +5.6%Headlines:
- Commodities Pick Up with Natural Gas Posting its Best Start to the Week in Months
- European Stocks Inch Higher During Session on Backs of Chinese Stimulus Talks
- Eni Announces Discovery in the Sureste Basin off the Coast of Mexico
RBOB Gasoline Futures Sitting at Important 1.5900-1.6000 ZoneHeadlines
• RBOB Gasoline Futures Sitting at Important 1.5900-1.6000 Zone
• Natural Gas Surges on Open Gapping Up +3%
• Japan Releases Disappointing GDP (-1.6%) for the Quarter Seeing Japanese Indexes Drop
• US Set to Observe Presidents Day Holiday During Monday
Natural Gas (NATGASUSD): Bearish Forecast
Natgas has reached an important pivot point.
we have a perfect confluence of 618 retracement, resistance line of a falling channel and rsi swap.
I believe that the market may drop to the downside and soon we will see the retest of the current structure low.
Please, support the idea with like! Thank you!
Oil Prices Hit Hurdle as Future OPEC Talks FadeHeadlines:
- Oil Futures drops as OPEC Hits Hurdle
- Natural Gas prices continue to fall as NG1 Futures down -4.5%
- United Nations releases numbers showing close to 700,000 people displaced in recent conflicts
- US Equities finish the session higher with NASDAQ up +1.13%
Natural Gas: Fundamental and Technical Weekly Outlook.This is a break down weekly analysis of Natural Gas.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Natural gas futures started the week lower, a new multi year low.
- Last week's much larger than expected government storage report is a very bearish indicator for the price.
- The latest weather models show almost zero chance of a cold pattern, which is also bearish for the price.
- Uncertainties in relation to Chinese demand on LNG continues to grow and remain bearish for the price.
Technical Analysis:
- The pattern is still a Channel Down since the November 05 high.
- The Resistance level is at 2.160.
- The MACD has turned bullish on the 1D chart.
- The MA50 is acting as a Resistance and since 2019 as long as it had, the trend was bearish. The two times it broke by a wide margin it completed a rise of around +22%. At the moment the MA50 is exactly on the Resistance level.
The above mix of indicators suggests that Natural Gas remains bearish long term. Technically as long as the price trades below the MA50 on the 1D chart, then selling on every rise is suggested. If the MA50 breaks (hence the Resistance level) we may get a +22% rise.
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Natural Gas Futures Gap -3% Lower During Monday Asian OpenHeadlines:
- Natural Gas Futures gap lower seeing them drop below 1.800 level for the first time since 2016
- COT report shows build in Short NYMEX Light Crude Oil Non-Commercial positions for week
- Asian Equities Down as fear is still present within Investor Sentiment
- China Releases Unexpected Increase in Inflation Data for the Month of December