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☄ Natural Gas Futures: This Is Ground Control To Major TomThis publication was partially created by ChatGPT AI, under request to Highlight Ten Factors That Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Below Zero in 2023. Good or bad, y'all be the judge. But here's what ChatGPT said... As an AI, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of such statements, but based on common knowledge, the following factors may be the reasons why natural gas prices drop below zero in 2023: 1. Growth in the use of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind energy. 2. Increasing US shale gas production, which will lead to an increase in global supply. 3. Reduced demand for natural gas due to switching to other types of fuel. 4. Increasing natural gas production in highly competitive countries such as Russia and Qatar. 5. The weakening of economic activity in various countries of the world, including China, the US and Europe. 6. Reducing inflation in various countries, which reduces the cost of natural gas. 7. A record increase in natural gas inventories caused by a reduction in demand and an increase in production. 8. Disputes between countries-suppliers and consumers of natural gas, which may lead to a decrease in exports and imports. 9. Increasing competition in the natural gas market from other producers such as Iran and Iraq. 10. Development of new technologies that make it possible to obtain energy from other sources without the use of natural gas. Technical picture in Natural Gas Futures indicates the biggest YTD decline over the all history of Natural Gas Futures trading since early 1990x. The main chart is adjusted for futures change All History Chart.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Pandorra
11
NATURAL GAS Ultimate Cycles cheat sheet shows sell isn't over.Those who follow us for long know that when trading Natural Gas (NG1!) we use a very distinct long-term pattern that has been in effect for more than ten years and last time (January 22 2023, see chart below) has helped us take a new short at 3.174, running so far +100% in profit: As you see on this 1W chart, the price is now below the High Volatility Zone, but the bottom isn't in yet as there is still room before touching the 15 year Lower Lows trend-line nor has the Sine Wave reached its bottom. At the same time the 1M RSI is breaking below its own Higher Lows trend-line, which is a bearish signal. We estimate a Target Zone within 1.300 - 1.250. Note that a 1W Death Cross was formed in August 2023 and since the March 2009 formation, NG prices a bottom significantly (at least 9 months) later. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TradingShot
2
THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW. NATTY GOES CRAZYNatty is a slang term for 'natural gas' or natural gas futures. Natural gas is among the most-volatile commodities, especially in contracts for prompt delivery. A big reason why is the demand for natural gas varies considerably based on the weather as it's primarily a heating fuel; though it's increasingly used in electricity production and that can also make it subject to swings on hot summer weather due to air conditioning demand. Increasingly, LNG demand also dictates the price of natural gas. Forecasters from Atmospheric G2 said last Thursday that above-average temperatures are expected for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Feb. 6 to 10. Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas announced in January, 2024 that it would close one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of one of the power units will limit the export of natural gas from the United States and increase its supply. Front NYMEX:NGH2024 Natural Gas futures contract recently fell to all-time low, below $1.900 mark. An unusually mild winter reduced demand for natural gas and kept U.S. inventories high. Forecasters at Maxar Technologies said last Wednesday that weather is forecast to become warmer over the next two weeks from the Rockies to the Midwest. According to BNEF, Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas production on Wednesday amounted to 104.2 bcf per day (+4.2% y/y). Demand for Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas was 93.1 bcfas of Wednesday, according to BNEF. (+8.9% y/y), and net LNG flows to US LNG export terminals declined to 13.5 bcf as of Wednesday. (-4.2% by weight). Reduced U.S. electricity production will negatively impact demand for natural gas from utility providers. The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity production fell -8.1% year-over-year for the week ending Feb. 3, and total electricity production in the US for the 52-week period ending February 3 fell by -0.4%. The US Climate Prediction Center said there is a more than 55% chance that current El Niño weather conditions will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and putting pressure on natural gas prices. AccuWeather predicts also El Niño will limit snowfall in Canada this season and also cause above-normal temperatures in North America. Gas storage facilities in Europe were 71% full as of January 29, above the five-year seasonal average of 58 percent for this time of year. Baker Hughes reported a week ago on Friday that the number of active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs fell by -1 rig to 119 rigs for the week ended Jan. 26, just above the two-year low of 113 rigs recorded on Sept. 8. Rising to a 4.5-year high of 166 rigs in September 2022 from the pandemic-era low of 68 rigs recorded in July 2020 (data dating back to 1987), rigs number decreases again, since Q4'22. Recent EIA report showed in full accordance with expectations, a decrease in reserves of -75 bcf that is much less than the 5-year average for this time of year of -193 bcf. The main technical chart is for United States Natural Gas Fund LP AMEX:UNG ETF that offers straightforward exposure to front-month natural gas futures Basically this graph clear illustrates that disinflation era is still exists, as bearish sentiment is still prevails in the market since the Q4'022, after a key 5yrs SMA breakthrough. Perhaps this is the end, and market capitulation is almost right there, as it typically happens each time in long-term downward market trends.
AMEX:UNG
by Pandorra
5
Elliott Waves: Natural Gas case study Overview: Since the significant bottom in June 2020, Natural Gas embarked on a compelling journey, forming a fresh impulse that concluded around the highs of August 2022 as Wave I in the Cycle Degree. The subsequent phase witnessed a corrective move, labeled as Wave II on the weekly timeframe, comprising three subdivisions: ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). The current focus is on the ongoing Wave ((C)) on the Daily timeframe, expected to unfold in five subdivisions: (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5). Within this framework, Wave (1) to (4) are complete, and attention now turns to the unfolding of Wave (5) on the Four-Hourly timeframe. Current Structure: On the Four-Hourly timeframe, Natural Gas is in the process of forming Wave (5), consisting of Wave 1, 2, and the ongoing development of Wave 3. The details of Wave 3 are further observed on the Hourly timeframe as finished wave ((i)) & ((ii)) and now possibly we are unfolding Wave ((iii)) of 3 of (5) of ((C)) of II. Elliott Wave Principles: Corrective Structure: Wave II is corrective, manifesting as a complex correction with three subdivisions, labeled ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). Impulse Formation: The primary upward movement from June 2020 to August 2022 represents an impulse, characterized by a sequence of five waves. Subdivision Details: Each wave and subdivision unfolds according to Elliott Wave principles, maintaining the structural integrity of the overall pattern. Learning Points: Analyzing Market Cycles: Elliott Wave Analysis serves as a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of markets, providing insights into the psychology of both buyers and sellers. Trend Anticipation: Corrective waves within the Elliott Wave framework offer a strategic opportunity to foresee potential trends—whether they signify a resumption or reversal of the existing trend. Elliott Wave Analysis is a tool to decipher market cycles, offering insights into the psychological dynamics of buyers and sellers. Corrective waves provide an opportunity to anticipate trend resumption or reversal. The principle of non-overlapping waves helps identify the structure of the market move. Validation and Risk Management: The integrity of this Elliott Wave structure is contingent on Wave II not surpassing the low of Wave I, identified at $1.440. A breach of this level would invalidate the current wave count. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by RK_Chaarts
20
NATGAS Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on NATGAS and concluded the following: The market is trading on 2.092 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 2.423 Safe Stop Loss - 1.906 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
3
NATURAL GAS: Buy opportunity near oversold levels.Natural Gas is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.738, MACD = -0.139, ADX = 32.983) right at the bottom of the three month Channel Down. Last time the 1D RSI dipped under 30.000 (oversold level), the LL was formed, the Channel Down bottomed and posted a strong December-January rally. Due to the long term bearish trend on NG, we don't expect such a rally this time but the price is low enough to justify a short term buy to test the 1D MA50 (TP = 2.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by InvestingScope
6
NATGAS The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear subscribers, NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 2.719 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 2.604 About Used Indicators: The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Bullish Outlook: UNG Prices Surge Amidst Anticipation of Record In the wake of widespread winter weather last week, the volatile natural gas futures front month, specifically the expiring February contracts for UNG, are witnessing a robust uptick. Traders are eagerly anticipating a potentially record-breaking storage withdrawal, adding fuel to the bullish sentiment. The market's sharp rebound in early trading on Thursday reflects the optimism surrounding the impending storage pull, setting the stage for a significant uptrend in UNG prices. Investors are closely monitoring the situation, poised for potential gains in the midst of evolving market dynamics.
NLong
by Maximus20000
3
NATGAS The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 2.519 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 2.869 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Natural Gas Probes Support. Is One More Feb '24 Bounce Possible?The US Natural Gas Fun (UNG) paces for its third-worst single-session performance in the ETF's 17-year history as of this writing. Tuesday afternoon weather model runs did the prompt-month of natural gas no favors, and the February contract has plunged all the way back under $3 after poking above $3.30 late last week. The current record-shattering polar snap will prove to be short-lived for the CONUS. A mild forecast in both the NOAA 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks are bearish for the energy-dependent commodity. This is the most volatile time of the year for nat gas, and the infamous “widowmaker” trade (the March/April spread) looms. For now, though, I see support on the chart in a broad range. Notice in my featured chart this week that $2.80 to $3.00 has historically been a battleground between the bulls and bears. What’s more, natty is now testing its 38.2% retracement from the December low to the January high, offering potential support. The trade here, in my view, is long with a stop under $2.80 on the prompt month. We will have a contract roll later this month to the much cheaper March contract (currently about 45 cents less expensive than Feb). So, we will get a natural gap down once the roll takes place. Thus, the duration of this idea is through January 26.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mikezaccardi
1
NATGAS Trading Opportunity! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on NATGAS and concluded the following: The market is trading on 3.331 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 3.061 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
5