Natural Gas sell can go away soon, good time to buyHello Traders, today's daily candle is showing us that there is a good price drop in natural gas , but the volume isn't the favoring the price action anyway which maybe an indication that this could be one of the last sells left in the current trend, yes there can be more sells we must remain open to that but currently the move isn't supported by the volume and the price is also coming to our last target of the short which we opened few days ago.
So, we will consider long for now, there are few possible scenarios i believe:
1. The price can bounce from the current blue channel in which it is, but it is very less likely less than 3-4% IMO
2. The price will come in the green box which will be our ideal buy zone for the long run, also please don't be too aggressive look for price action in that area to be specific i will look for buy around 2.18 or 2.16$ range area, but anything below 2.2 is good its a good even number for the market.
3. If it reach that red zone area it will be a surprise for me personally, ideally if i see good price action to the upside in the green area i will use this red zone as stop but if that isn't the case i.e if we don't get good buy action in the green zone i will look for buy here in the red zone, but i think this scenario will also be less likely IMO less than 10%.
So personally i am with scenario 2 and maximum chances are there for us.
Happy Thanks Giving!
May the markets be with you.
NGAS
Nat Gas - Follow up - Correction before continuing higher ?We can count 5 waves up now for potential wave 3.
Following soon will be a wave 4 consolidation followed by a continuation higher as wave 5.
Because wave 2 was a ZigZag, we can assume this wave 4 to be a Flat or a triangle making just a shallow retracement of wave 3.
So, I recommend taking at least partial profits.
Because waves 4 are so tricky it's not a good idea to try and short them, so, better keep your cash on the side for when better opportunities arise.
! If price starts to fall sharply and goes below 2.38, the count gets negated.
Previous post :
Natural Gas - Clean setup. Wait for confirmation before buying !Elliott Wave count suggests we'll see price go up for a wave 3 or C in impulsive fashion up to 2.53 at first.
Notice that we also have bullish divergence and a classic (potential) Head and Shoulder pattern, but this needs a push above the neck line to confirm which limits the profit potential.
We can use a break above the blue channel line as an indication that price has started reversing and should continue higher.
Invalidation for this count is at 2.19 but we could see price go up even after a small break below invalidation.
(This does not mean I won't stop my trade if Invalidation is hit!)
Nat Gas clone levelsThis is a longer range chart of Nat Gas with it's clear descending wedge structure, which is overlaid with clone levels. The reference range for the clones is the spike at the start of the winter season 2018.
The safest long trade - if there is such a thing with NGas at a time when Permian Gas is beng flared off at a criminal rate - would be to hit it as low as possible close to the wedge bottom boundary. Timing is all important with the Widow Maker - so pay it lots of respect and never get cocky with it.
Otherwise watch from the sidelines and enter a safer trade instead.
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 9This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts.
Chart setup :
(Part 1)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line
Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles
Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line
(Part 2)
Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue
Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red
Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this
(Part 3)
True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red
Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
Renko Chart Settings
Crude Oil (TVC:USOil): renko/traditional/blksize .05/.10/.25
Natural Gas (ngas): renko/traditional/blksize .005/.010/.025
Soybeans/Wheat/Corn (soybnusd/wheatusd/cornusd): can use the ngas setup
S&P 500 (spx500usd): renko/traditional/blksize 2.5/5.0/12.5
Euros (EURUSD): renko/traditional/blksize .0005/.0010/.0025
Update CHK: Position is hedge but performing VERY wellChesapeake is likely to see some real buying into April if section 232 tariffs on Uranium are passed (high probability)
Natural Gas needs a little push to setup a breakout!As you all know by now, I believe this is an event-driven outcome due to section 232 tariffs on Uranium. The decision will be made in April with a high probability it is passed. The blowback is likely higher electricity costs from Nuclear, natural gas is an alternative base load energy.
UPDATE: Nat Gas part II, 200% upside in CHKI don't like to post about single equities due to the balance sheet risk they propose, this is a company I have bought to take advantage of the outcome of section 232 as mentioned in the earlier update on Natural Gas.
manage your risk effectively and don't be a blind sheep, this is not advise!