NGAS
Natural Gas Forecast and Trade OpportunityLow storage level (relative to historical norms) is making the price extremely susceptible to changes in the weather models. Instead of pushing the price higher gradually by 5-10 cents a week, bullish changes in the short-term weather models create fear, which results in double-digit rallies over the course of a single trading session, as happened on Monday, January 14.
The bullish changes in the weather models are resulting in an extremely exaggerated bullish change in natural gas prices. Prompt-month contract price can reach high levels and then correct sharply even if the weather turns only slightly bearish. In other words, prompt month contracts (February contract and, to a lesser degree, March contract) are very speculative and very risky to trade right now.
The best strategy in Ngas February and March contracts can be buying the dips at the strong support levels.
Looking at the NGAS February contracts, the price is testing the EMA 50 and Ichimoku Cloud support. We also see a bullish flag formation on the H4 Chart.
We will try Long at this support.
NGAS Gartley H4Hello everyone! Today we have spotted a gartley pattern spotted on the NGAS h4 chart! Feel free to leave your questions below in the comments section!
NGAS: Potentially a massive long term bottom hereI think technicals suggest we could be seeing a huge bottom in $NGAS here, I'm long from this spot, aiming for a retest of the monthly mode resistance above, which will probably send the price sideways for a long time but can eventually result in a strong rally out of this zone, aiming for a surge towards $4+.
Very interesting chart, and certainly not moving together with anything else, which makes it a very good trading instrument to follow.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
NGAS a daily 0.618 and demand zone combination!NGAS just broke its triangle consolidation to the downside, and the selling pressure is just huge!
Here we got a very important spot at around 3.500-3.540,which is a daily 0.618 and demand zone combination trade!
Still, the selling pressure here still worth attention, so a nice reversal sign is crucial for this trade!
Let's see how it goes yo!
NAT GAS - Sideways move coming to an end - looking to upside !Looks like this Triangle is coming to an end as price is in the support zone of wave ((e)) of wave 4.
So, we should see a bounce towards 5.20 and higher for wave 5.
A break above 4.76 is a good confirmation of bullish move.
Invalidation level is at 3.98
R/R > 1/3 !
A great opportunity to buy in NGASMidterm forecast:
The current trend is uptrend and the forecast is continuation of uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI support #1 at 52 is not broken, the probability of price decrease would be too low.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 4.755 on 11/30/2018, so more losses to support(s) 4.400, 4.050, 3.800 and minimum to Trend Hunter Buy Zone (3.600 to 3.350) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 60.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Buy Zone (3.600 to 3.350). We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
Beginning of entry zone (3.600)
Ending of entry zone (3.350)
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to " Buy zone " then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether " Bullish Engulfing ", " Hammer " or " Valley " in other words, NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone. To learn more about " Entry signal " and the special version of our " Price Action " strategy FOLLOW our lessons :
Take Profit:
TP1= @ 3.800
TP2= @ 4.050
TP3= @ 4.400
TP4= @ 4.550
TP5= @ 4.650
TP6= @ 4.850
TP7= @ 5.000
TP8= Free
NATURAL GAS - Your bill will go up !Looks like this Triangle is coming to an end as price is in the support zone of wave ((e)) of wave 4.
So, we should see a bounce towards 5.0 and higher for wave 5.
A break above 4.76 is a good confirmation of bullish move.
Invalidation level is at 3.88 (end of wave ((a))
NGAS Shortterm Bearish Trend has been brokenNGAS Shortterm Bearish Trend has been broken.
Buy the pullback
NGAS: Quarterly target hit rapidly, short squeeze ended...I think $NGAS will trend back down to the 2.88 region once more. Most likely peaked already, although weather being the coldest in years could be a concern, fundamentally speaking (nevertheless, this variable could be already priced in). Short entries should be safe overall, any rally is a short here in my opinion, just risk 0.25% on each attempt.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Natural Gas: PAYDAYNG broke out of a symmetrical triangle in textbook fashion. I'm long from the break out and targeting the resistance line in a larger channel formation, although I took some profit today.
I'm an optimist by nature, and I'm glad to be long something in my portfolio.
NGAS daily bearish bat pattern yo!The 2618 trade of the Hindsight challenge was AWESOME!!
NGAS finally hit the entry of the bearish bat with a strong gap up on Monday morning Asia session!
With the 3.500 fig combination, I'm willing to wait for 4hr reversal sign here for a short trade!
Let's see how it goes!
How NGAS reacts with harmonic patterns -- hindsight challenge(1)One thing that the analysts in this business will be challenged forever is about hindsight.
Even the simplest single EMA system can look outstanding when it comes to the happened candles.
While, for a mature system trader, what we really focus on is two questions:
1. "Do the patterns match the definition?"
2. "What exactly is the trade? (at least with an entry and a stop loss) "
3. "Is the trade triggered"
One of these 4 trades is a simple hindsight that didn't really match the definition of the pattern,
Let's try to point out which one it is if you know exactly how these trades work yo~!!
2018.07.31HUGE rejection right off of 2.825 (July 11 high). Bearish setups are still in play as I expect a bullish move on Wednesday and EIA report (last two reports were bullish so I expect shorts to cover a bit). As such, I expect a retest of today's highs ~2.81-2.825. I doubt natty will break 2.825 unless EIA report is extremely bullish. Therefore, I'll be looking to go short at either red line (2.825) or upper purple line (~2.813) for a break of the lower purple line and then a test of low 2.7s
GL to all!
NGAS SELLIf price reaches GREEN TL get ready for sell. If it goes to the upper PURPLE TL sell aggressively. Trail stop until the lower GREEN TL.
UPDATE: very IMPORTANT juncture for USOIL, I expect higherHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
Trade Journal #3: Natural Gas RodeoNatural gas has behaved very well and as many have expected it to perform. This setup attempts to ride a number of corrective waves before a big bull run expected to begin later this year.
A winds of change?ngas today couildnt break the flag patern today 2.98 is seems to be a big resis.
first target for short is 2.87 if this wont hold this time will next stop 2.8 and then 2.73
SL at 2.99
