NGAS
NATGAS Weekly - Gap filled below ..on to the one aboveStrong weekly candle filled the larger gap below from Nov 28 as well took back the 200 MA 3.30 (the caveat is there is still a smaller one Nov 21 2.852 - 2.891 but I expect it will wait for shoulder season if it fills since we've moved up for now)
Tested 20MA with a convincing push up = bias remains BULL
50MA crossed above 100MA
20MA closing in on 200MA
Up trend tested Nov 7 higher low 2.546 within pennies of the prior higher low Aug 8 - 2.523 imo qualifies as a double bottom - same Nov7 low was first touch & test test of 100MA support
Targeting gap to 3.67 and will re-assess price action/fundamentals but ultimately think we see $4 touched before shoulder season
Inventories/Production tight & increasing exports/coal converters are the main fundamental drivers but weather always a wild card
GLTA
Natural Gas short: FakeyThe uptrend of NGAS in the past week was a completely irrational move fueled by good news for oil. Other than that, inventories were slighly below forecasts and weather neutral. Furthemore, this rally is starting to experience exchaustion with huge spreads between bid and ask which leads to gaps--mostly to the downside. Thus, I believe that panic selling will follow; and as we know panic selling of NGAS is an amazing opportunity to short. I entered short at $3.5 and will hold till STOCH RSI bottoms, where I will try to long as I think NGAS has potential upside.
Changing weatherNatgas has been on a great run because of the cold area over Canada that may enter the USA. However last two days it has become less like to enter the plains. As natgas is overbought, calendar spreads showing relative weakness, and larger than normal volumes in inverse etfs, all these factors support my opinion of warmer weather next week. aka lower natgas prices.
NGAS : Short this to 2.4, Where thy winter ?WXY pullback
Can be expected to touch the top. Start shorting from the red region.
I dont care about winter/weather or this or that.
I trade wave counts and patterns.
if you have fundamental issues pls dont take this trade,
and rest of you who do short, enjoy the ride with me.
I will be posting update on lower tf.
Enjoy Trading !