NGAS
Natural Gas SHORT: December is ComingFriday I started selling my position in NGAS. Whilst I do expect further movement up, I think that there may be a possibility for some profit in the short side. That's because the upper BB did not seem to widen when the price reached it. This is a very common sign of NGAS reversing. Furthermore, the STOCH RSI look like not much upside is available. The MACD is still bearish but soon to reverse. I WILL NOT BE TAKING A SHORT position right now, but will wait for signs of reversal (retrace). There have been times when NGAS exploded after reaching a resistance. Thus, I will adding to short from 3.2-3.18 and only if indicators signal a selloff.
NGAS has broken the trend lineI'm not entering at this point as it might test back the trend line. If it will not fall from 3.00,
OR if it will test the trend line but find support on it (which I prefer) I suggest going long.
NGAS:Sell at 0.618RET and 1.618EXTThe 0.618RET of previous decline is at 3.04 and the 1.618EXT of previous rise is at 3.07 level.
Meanwhile the prevous structure also works at this zone.
So it is good to sell short at 3.04-3.10 levels when price action gives the bearish signals in the PRZ.
SL:above 3.15
TP1:2.80
TP2:2.68 and further more
NGAS:Bearish AB=CD Pattern and 0.618RETThe bearish AB=CD pattern is completing at 2.92 level and the 0.618RET of the previous decline is at the same level.
Meanwhile the previous structure works at 2.9-3.0 levels.
So it may be good to sell at 2.9-3.0 levels when price action gives the signal in the PRZ.
SL:above 3.02
TP1:2.8
TP2:2.7 and forther more
NGAS:Bearish Bat PatternThe potential bearish Bat pattern is completing at 2.83 and the 1.618EXT of AB is at 2.85.
Meanwhile the previous strcuture also works at this zone.
So it is good to sell short at 2.80-2.85 levels when price atcion is good at the PRZ.
SL:above 2.88
TP1:2.72
TP2:2.63 and further more
Natural Gas Short: Only for 1 dayI will be sorting Natural Gas for only 1 day (12/14/2016) I don't think Natural Gas has a clear direction right now, but I do think it is still in limbo, just at a lower level than expected. Thus I do forecast a drop back from the 10DMA levels of 2.737 to erase today's (11/14/2016) gains, but no movement lower, at least not this week.
NGAS:Buy at 2618 PatternThe market has borken through the point of last drop and the double bottom has formed.
Meanwhile the market is pulling back the neck line which is also the 0.618 retracement of the previous rise.
So it is good to buy at 2.60-2.63 levels when bullish candles appear.
SL:below 2.55
TP1:2.73
TP2:2.78 and further more
NGAS:A Good Opportunity to SellThe NGAS has pulled back the 0.618 retracement of the previous decline and the market will be likely to continue the down trend.
Meanwhile a pinbar appeared after the market hit the 0.618.
So it is good to sell short at 3.06-3.08 levels.
SL:above 3.20
Target:2.66 and further more
NGAS in LimboAfter the contract rollover, NGAS lost it's downwards momentum. No special news were published during the intentories and thus I expect NGAS to just "hang out" between the BB (1H) until the BB closes on 4H and D. From there I expect opportunities to short below the current HCL. Expect this sideways state for at least 3-4 more days and then go hunting.
Short NATGAS strategy Based on technical analysis we should see a leg lower withing the next 5 days. A crucial factor though is the natgas inventories to be released on thursday. Keeping in mind the negative correlation with crude oil observed lately, the data should favour a short position.
UPDATE: NGAS ShortWARNING: Tomorrow is a massively important day for short holders. Firstly it is important to note that there is very big spread between December ($3.066) and current contracts. Furthermore, tomorrow invontory data is released. If you see December contracts gapping down tomorrow that is a very bearish sign and could indicate that there is a short opportunity regarding the data. If we don't see a spread close, then we should all be extremely careful and exit immediately if data is positive as it will mean that NGAS will ride back to first resistance and trend higher for the days to come. At which point a short could be a possible trade to ride it back down.
