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NGAS

$NGAS: Model Eyes Further Decline To 1.62 #naturalgas #fibonacciFriends, As the prior DAILY chart reached its lowly targets, price fell to Predictive/Forecasting Model's "Watch Line", an indicator that daily frame action had ceded control to higher timeframe. Based on same Model's formula, we are thus turning to the 4th degree higher frame: Weekly. QUICK ANALYSIS: - Predictive/Forecasting Model: In essence, the Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for further decline, defining a target as: - TG = 1.621 - 26 OCT 2015 MARKET SYMMETRY: Relevance of this target rests also on the proximity of a wide reciprocal ab = cd symmetry that appears to play itself out from the high of 6.484 in the week of 17 FEB 2014 with an intermediate "axis" around which the second leg is forming a probable symmetrical projection. This projected reciprocity is valued at 1.593. FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS: In addition to above tight alignment between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and expected geometric projection, a close alignment adds credence to this vicinity by the projection of the following two Fibonacci values: 1 - 1.414-FE = 1.7373 AND 2 - 1.618-FE = 1.716. MARKET GEOMETRY: Note that a remnant "Geo" from prior analysis subsists in the price field, having defined a Point-5-second (5''). This would be expected of a market that remains exceedingly extended, forcing a geometric distortion of the original Wolfe Wave. The Geo addresses market distortion and adjusts probability targets when price reaches the 5' or 5'' level of definition. In this particular case, we are dealing with a 5'' definition. Hence, the geometric compensation that is expected to occur is based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, which offers a retracement to the price level corresponding to Point-3 as the highest probability level of attainment. This relaxation to the upside is an expected interim development, allowing price to seek the underbelly of the Geo. An alternate way to explain this would be by way of structural analysis, considering that the 1-3 Line of the Geo would offer a once-support-now-resistance validation event, before further downside might resume. OVERALL: A confluence of values appear to concentrate in the 1.737 to 1.593 range, increasing the probability of support in this narrow vicinity. The Predictive/Forecasting Model offers this value as a probable reversal level. If this were to occur, next bullish target would seek validation of a nodular core in the 4.011 to 4.091 range, which defined the aforementioned "axis" for the projected reciprocal symmetry that comes in nearest alignment with same Model. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Linked-In: David Alcindor TradingView: www.TradingView.com ----- Feel free to share and follow analyses, pre-publishing of charts and development of technical analyses by following me on TradingView.com, alias: 4xForecaster - TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster Thank you for your readership, David .
FX:NGASShort
by 4xForecaster
10
Possible long term bottom in natural gasAfter a potential exhaustion gap yesterday, prices have recovered which increases the probability that yesterday was indeed an exhaustion gap. The price chart is forming a potential falling wedge and cup and handle failure pattern with an RSI divergence. I suggest taking a trade: Enter with 1/3 position now. Add 1/3 if prices close above 2.62 and add the last 1/3 if prices close above 2.72. Stop: close below 2.40. Target: exit 1/3 around 4 level, 1/3 around 6 level and last 1/3 around 9-10 level Note: This is a position trade for well capitalized accounts only. Use only Nat gas futures, do not use an ETF such as UNG. UNG is useful only for extremely short term oriented trades and is not suitable for longer term strategies. The risk for the trade should be about 0.5%-1.5% of the total trading capital and according to personal risk preference. If your account size does not permit such an allocation do not take the trade, this trade is not for you. Whoever chooses (can go) with the trade good luck. This is not investment advice and you are solely responsible for your actions. For a full disclaimer see here: www.highprotrading.com For a full list of instruments traded in the lifetime of the portfolio and for performance go to the Performance section: www.highprotrading.com
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by HighProTrading
4