NGAS
Nears Bottom; Model Offers Bullish Targets | #gas $NGAS #oilFriends,
Natural gas ($NGAS) is coming to a technical floor per Elliott Wave count as well as predictive/forecasting model.
WAVE ANALYSIS:
- ELLIOTT WAVE:
Price action in this 8-hour chart illustrates a recent down-swing consistent with an Bearish Elliott Wave impulse, whose internal construction suggests a near completion, as price appears to negotiate a 5th wave conclusion.
- WOLFE WAVES:
Standing in the background appears to be a Wolfe Wave pattern, engulfing the entire Elliott Wave construct. In its most basic form, Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves requires that:
1 - Waves 1-3 and 2-4 be declining in the same direction (here: down)
2 - Waves 2-4 be converging
and that:
3 - Point-4 be situated between Points 1 and 2, although this would only belong to the strictest definition, and these are empirical observations, as there is no formal literature from its author on this advanced pattern.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING:
The predictive/forecasting model is calling for a bottom-most tolerable support as the "Lox" target (i.e.: extreme low value), defined as:
- TG-Lox = 2.542 - 28 JAN 2015
Model also offers the following ensuing bullish NUMERICAL targets:
1 - TG-1 = 3.285 - 28 JAN 2015
and
2 - TG-2 = 3.798 - 28 JAN 2015
... as well as this top-most NOMINAL target:
- TG-Hi = 4.343 - 28 JAN 2015
OVERALL:
An interim decline should serve to complete a set of background geometries. However, a reaction to the top-side is likely to prop price up to the defined targets. Directional indicator will remain NEUTRAL until this last fifth wave concludes.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
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Last successful $NGAS forecast:
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I remain bullish Natural Gas to 5.10 (or higher)Winter months are here. The East Coast of the US is experiencing low temperature and snow. Demand for Natural Gas usually increases in the winter months.
The price of Natural Gas has been climbing since late October and will probably keep rising throughout the winter months.
I remain bullish NGAS to 5.10 which is the 61.8% Fib extension from the up move and it lines up perfectly with a missed monthly pivot from march of 2014.
A break above the 100% fib is a good sign for trend resumption.
I like buying on dips.
nATURAL GAS NEW UPTRENDHi Traders,
As predicted, Natural Gas topped within the target area at 4.50-4.56. Then again, it retraced to another predicted target area at 4.21-4.18.
Now, Natural Gas should resume the uptrend to the area 5.10-5.13 and higher.
TARGETS
likely: 5.10-5.13
possibly: 5.37-5.38
ELLIOTT WAVES
This new uptrend is nothing more than "wave 3" of the recently started trend at 3.537. See the attached charts.
NATURAL GAS RESUMING THE UPTRENDHi Traders,
As predicted, Natural Gas topped within the target area at 4.50-4.56. Then again, it retraced to another predicted target area at 4.21-4.18.
Now, Natural Gas should resume the uptrend to the area 5.10-5.13 and higher.
TARGETS
likely: 5.10-5.13
possibly: 5.37-5.38
ELLIOTT WAVES
This new uptrend is nothing more than "wave 3" of the recently started trend at 3.537.
NATURAL GAS NEW UPTRENDHi Traders,
Natural Gas (now at 3800) started a major uptrend as 2 days ago as predicted. It's now to retrace a bit to 3760-43 before resuming the uptrend to 3924-50. That should mark the top of "sub-minuette wave 1".
As you can see by the 2-hours chart above we're still plenty of time to get on board for a long position.
ELLIOTT WAVES
The letter "C" at the bottom right of the chart marks the very end of major retracement wave C. That wave was part of large A-B-C downward correction started from the top at 6,481 on FEB 24, 2014. It bottomed at 3,537 on OCT 28.
TARGETS
first 3760-43
then 3924-50
PS: apologies for not providing more charts but I'm utterly busy.
Mario D. Conti.
$UNG $NGAS Its that timeSeasonal Play ..o durr, right ? it gets cold people need cheap heating with Natgas at 3.65 its a bargain right now. IMO , I almost feel like todays 19.10 and lower was the perfect entry and I chickened out,
options are cheap right now,
Nov 14 22.00 calls are trading at .16 just yesterday they were at .21 so $5 cheaper,
DEC 14 25 calls are trading at .24 slightly higher than yesterday go figure
How ever looking at this chart i set up there the trend channel that i set up with a few touches, but at the beginning of Nov 2013 there a clear signal IMHO !!
HAPPY Trading hoping to make these my last few trades of 2014,
The SPY and DIA are so unclear right now