Meet the most obvious trade ever! Natural gasDouble gapping top in a short closing rally.
Makes it a very obvious re-short. Buy January 15, $8 PUTS at 0.15 each for maximum gain.
opcalc.com
NGAS
Natural Gas SetupSeems like NGAS bounced hard forming a bullish channel with a "stairs" pattern.
It's currently on the channel resistance so it sould go down by now.
We can also see a gap that should be filled at 2.260.
I recommend to sell on breakout or just buy the deep with a target to 2.260 gap.
Regards and happy trading!
$NGAS: Model Eyes Further Decline To 1.62 #naturalgas #fibonacciFriends,
As the prior DAILY chart reached its lowly targets, price fell to Predictive/Forecasting Model's "Watch Line", an indicator that daily frame action had ceded control to higher timeframe. Based on same Model's formula, we are thus turning to the 4th degree higher frame: Weekly.
QUICK ANALYSIS:
- Predictive/Forecasting Model:
In essence, the Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for further decline, defining a target as:
- TG = 1.621 - 26 OCT 2015
MARKET SYMMETRY:
Relevance of this target rests also on the proximity of a wide reciprocal ab = cd symmetry that appears to play itself out from the high of 6.484 in the week of 17 FEB 2014 with an intermediate "axis" around which the second leg is forming a probable symmetrical projection.
This projected reciprocity is valued at 1.593.
FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS:
In addition to above tight alignment between the Predictive/Forecasting Model and expected geometric projection, a close alignment adds credence to this vicinity by the projection of the following two Fibonacci values:
1 - 1.414-FE = 1.7373
AND
2 - 1.618-FE = 1.716.
MARKET GEOMETRY:
Note that a remnant "Geo" from prior analysis subsists in the price field, having defined a Point-5-second (5''). This would be expected of a market that remains exceedingly extended, forcing a geometric distortion of the original Wolfe Wave.
The Geo addresses market distortion and adjusts probability targets when price reaches the 5' or 5'' level of definition. In this particular case, we are dealing with a 5'' definition. Hence, the geometric compensation that is expected to occur is based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3, which offers a retracement to the price level corresponding to Point-3 as the highest probability level of attainment.
This relaxation to the upside is an expected interim development, allowing price to seek the underbelly of the Geo. An alternate way to explain this would be by way of structural analysis, considering that the 1-3 Line of the Geo would offer a once-support-now-resistance validation event, before further downside might resume.
OVERALL:
A confluence of values appear to concentrate in the 1.737 to 1.593 range, increasing the probability of support in this narrow vicinity. The Predictive/Forecasting Model offers this value as a probable reversal level.
If this were to occur, next bullish target would seek validation of a nodular core in the 4.011 to 4.091 range, which defined the aforementioned "axis" for the projected reciprocal symmetry that comes in nearest alignment with same Model.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com
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Feel free to share and follow analyses, pre-publishing of charts and development of technical analyses by following me on TradingView.com, alias: 4xForecaster - TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
Thank you for your readership,
David
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Long Term Buy in NaturalGas...1- Winter Season Started will effect the demand.
2- Inventories are falling below 5 Yr Average.
3- About to go up if Mirror Image Completes in the Weekly Chart.
4- RSI Making Higher Lows on Every Downfall.
5- Major Reversal pattern on the Bottom.
6- Dollar Index Showing a Downside...
Can trade Buy Side with Stops below Previous Lows for Next Year.
NGAS - potential inverse h&sNatural Gas could be working on putting in the right shoulder of a inverse h&s.
Above 2.71 would give added confidence to a likely retest of the noted neckline. The timing of this retest could occur within the next 2-3 weeks. Confirmation of this inverse h&s would have an implied target of ~3.7 with a completion likely this fall.
Below recent lows at 2.6 and this setup can be considered invalidated.
NGAS Natural Gas Pitchfork Break DownNGAS Natural Gas Pitchfork Break Down
Natural Gas price has broken down out of its pitchfork channel from the peak of $3.1
Charting further test of support levels at 2.534, 2.471 and 2.437
I'm currently long and will be looking to reduce the average cost of my position by short selling.
Short NGAS for retracementUPDATE
FULL target hit. Looking back for a long now.
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NGAS met heavey resistance we have a bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, looks like it is going to retrace some, before further upmovement.
The blue line looks like a level to respect in my opinion, because of the double bottom it made there and from there it went steeply up.
Possible long term bottom in natural gasAfter a potential exhaustion gap yesterday, prices have recovered which increases the probability that yesterday was indeed an exhaustion gap. The price chart is forming a potential falling wedge and cup and handle failure pattern with an RSI divergence.
I suggest taking a trade:
Enter with 1/3 position now. Add 1/3 if prices close above 2.62 and add the last 1/3 if prices close above 2.72.
Stop: close below 2.40.
Target: exit 1/3 around 4 level, 1/3 around 6 level and last 1/3 around 9-10 level
Note: This is a position trade for well capitalized accounts only. Use only Nat gas futures, do not use an ETF such as UNG. UNG is useful only for extremely short term oriented trades and is not suitable for longer term strategies. The risk for the trade should be about 0.5%-1.5% of the total trading capital and according to personal risk preference. If your account size does not permit such an allocation do not take the trade, this trade is not for you.
Whoever chooses (can go) with the trade good luck.
This is not investment advice and you are solely responsible for your actions. For a full disclaimer see here: www.highprotrading.com
For a full list of instruments traded in the lifetime of the portfolio and for performance go to the Performance section: www.highprotrading.com
NG - Natural Gasgo long NG, but if we have a daily close below the base of the triangle, we are out...
Sentiment is extremely negative, traders are long at historical levels, and seasonality is helping... BUT we only want to be long above 2.70 aprox...
Nears Bottom; Model Offers Bullish Targets | #gas $NGAS #oilFriends,
Natural gas ($NGAS) is coming to a technical floor per Elliott Wave count as well as predictive/forecasting model.
WAVE ANALYSIS:
- ELLIOTT WAVE:
Price action in this 8-hour chart illustrates a recent down-swing consistent with an Bearish Elliott Wave impulse, whose internal construction suggests a near completion, as price appears to negotiate a 5th wave conclusion.
- WOLFE WAVES:
Standing in the background appears to be a Wolfe Wave pattern, engulfing the entire Elliott Wave construct. In its most basic form, Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves requires that:
1 - Waves 1-3 and 2-4 be declining in the same direction (here: down)
2 - Waves 2-4 be converging
and that:
3 - Point-4 be situated between Points 1 and 2, although this would only belong to the strictest definition, and these are empirical observations, as there is no formal literature from its author on this advanced pattern.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING:
The predictive/forecasting model is calling for a bottom-most tolerable support as the "Lox" target (i.e.: extreme low value), defined as:
- TG-Lox = 2.542 - 28 JAN 2015
Model also offers the following ensuing bullish NUMERICAL targets:
1 - TG-1 = 3.285 - 28 JAN 2015
and
2 - TG-2 = 3.798 - 28 JAN 2015
... as well as this top-most NOMINAL target:
- TG-Hi = 4.343 - 28 JAN 2015
OVERALL:
An interim decline should serve to complete a set of background geometries. However, a reaction to the top-side is likely to prop price up to the defined targets. Directional indicator will remain NEUTRAL until this last fifth wave concludes.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
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Last successful $NGAS forecast:
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I remain bullish Natural Gas to 5.10 (or higher)Winter months are here. The East Coast of the US is experiencing low temperature and snow. Demand for Natural Gas usually increases in the winter months.
The price of Natural Gas has been climbing since late October and will probably keep rising throughout the winter months.
I remain bullish NGAS to 5.10 which is the 61.8% Fib extension from the up move and it lines up perfectly with a missed monthly pivot from march of 2014.
A break above the 100% fib is a good sign for trend resumption.
I like buying on dips.
nATURAL GAS NEW UPTRENDHi Traders,
As predicted, Natural Gas topped within the target area at 4.50-4.56. Then again, it retraced to another predicted target area at 4.21-4.18.
Now, Natural Gas should resume the uptrend to the area 5.10-5.13 and higher.
TARGETS
likely: 5.10-5.13
possibly: 5.37-5.38
ELLIOTT WAVES
This new uptrend is nothing more than "wave 3" of the recently started trend at 3.537. See the attached charts.
NATURAL GAS RESUMING THE UPTRENDHi Traders,
As predicted, Natural Gas topped within the target area at 4.50-4.56. Then again, it retraced to another predicted target area at 4.21-4.18.
Now, Natural Gas should resume the uptrend to the area 5.10-5.13 and higher.
TARGETS
likely: 5.10-5.13
possibly: 5.37-5.38
ELLIOTT WAVES
This new uptrend is nothing more than "wave 3" of the recently started trend at 3.537.
NATURAL GAS NEW UPTRENDHi Traders,
Natural Gas (now at 3800) started a major uptrend as 2 days ago as predicted. It's now to retrace a bit to 3760-43 before resuming the uptrend to 3924-50. That should mark the top of "sub-minuette wave 1".
As you can see by the 2-hours chart above we're still plenty of time to get on board for a long position.
ELLIOTT WAVES
The letter "C" at the bottom right of the chart marks the very end of major retracement wave C. That wave was part of large A-B-C downward correction started from the top at 6,481 on FEB 24, 2014. It bottomed at 3,537 on OCT 28.
TARGETS
first 3760-43
then 3924-50
PS: apologies for not providing more charts but I'm utterly busy.
Mario D. Conti.
$UNG $NGAS Its that timeSeasonal Play ..o durr, right ? it gets cold people need cheap heating with Natgas at 3.65 its a bargain right now. IMO , I almost feel like todays 19.10 and lower was the perfect entry and I chickened out,
options are cheap right now,
Nov 14 22.00 calls are trading at .16 just yesterday they were at .21 so $5 cheaper,
DEC 14 25 calls are trading at .24 slightly higher than yesterday go figure
How ever looking at this chart i set up there the trend channel that i set up with a few touches, but at the beginning of Nov 2013 there a clear signal IMHO !!
HAPPY Trading hoping to make these my last few trades of 2014,
The SPY and DIA are so unclear right now
NG Long from End of 2014 until 2015 FebUsing Wheel on other application to analysis date, turning point might happen around Jul to Nov, enter in the yellow spot, and aim for 2015 Feb @ 4.61. ideal enter at 3.5, exit at 4.5 - 4.6.
