Natural Gas can complete long term down trend nowNatural Gas can complete long term down trend now as its reached an price area where all mathematics and technical are indicating a reversal.
Nglong
BOIL 3X / Triple Leveraged Natural Gas ETFon the 4H chart is showing a round bottom reversal at the bottom of the high voume area
and rose over the POC line of the intermediate-term voume profile. Price now has room for
a 50% move to the top of the high volume area at $ 52. The chart shows the relative
volume indicator supports a long buy as does the dual time frame RSI.
A speculative call option trade would be $60 in 4 months while a safer call option
would be in the money @ $30 in 7-9 weeks. I am also looking at UNG, LNG and XNGUSD on
forex.
BOIL / KOLD - a leveraged natural gas oscillatorHere on a dialy chart I have plotted the ratio of BOIL share price to that of KOLD, its leveraged
inverse. They both react to and reflect natural gas prices which are currently rising. I have also
plotted the supply demand indicator from Luxalgo and a better RSI indicator. As can be seen
on the chart the ratio ascended from relative weakness last fall into a long head and shoulder
pattern and then descended into its present range. The RSI bottomed abot 5/4/23 and
increasing since then. I see the present pattern as similar to what occurred last fall.
My thesis is that I should buy BOIL now as its price ascends until the ratio hits the supply
zone above and then flip by selling and buying KOLD instead. I see this as essentially a natural
gas buy and sell oscillator. To have more frequent trades and higher overall profits,
I would need to decrease the timeframe for the analysis down to 1-3 hours and follow
the ratio trending accordingly. At present, I will continue to accumulate further long positions
in BOIL
BOIL a scalp trade LONGBOIL had trended down from a high about May 19 until June 2nd when it reversed and gained
for one week before resuming its trend down. This can be seen on the half hour chart. The
The attached RS indicator shows the decreasing strength trending down from 65 to 40 over the
past few trading days. Upon drawing trendline support and resistance. I note that a descending
or falling wedge pattern is evident. This is a bullish chart pattern predictive of a price action
reversal. A volume profile is added to the chart showing the highest volume of trading at
the POC line corresponding to a price of $2.58.
I will trade a long trade on BOIL by way of a buy stop at $ 2.59 with a stop loss at $2.57.
The target will be the top of the high volume area of the volume profile @ $2.74.
This trade will risk $0.02 compared with a potential profit of $ 0.15 yielding a reward to
risk of 7.5. As it turns out, I did this exact same trade this past Wednesday June 7rh.
Besides 100 shares I will buy one call option striking $2.50 with an expiration of 6/30
to leverage the trade.
BOIL Natural Gas Price Recover and ReverseBOIL on the 2H chart has bottomed and begun the reversal as this leveraged natural gas fund
sees a red to green in the HA candles as well as the volume. Price has crossedover the POC line
of the long-term volume profile and exploded from a Doji candle below the mean anchored
VWAP with consecutive engulfing bullish candles.
The Luxalgo AI predictive indicator suggests a parabolic move higher and
a correction in the first part of next week. I have already profited 700% on this trade that I
have been in since my earlier idea on BOIL. I will add to the position now but be watchful
for a reversal of the reversal while watching a volatility indicator to set the exit.
UNG Natural Gas ( Unleveraged) ETF LongOn the 4 hour chart- UNG had a head and shoulder pattern in May from which it descended
in a gradual fashion from May 25 to June 2nd and then reversed upward. The reversal occurred
at two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and so deep in the oversold
area. Price has crossed over the higher VWAP line and so is in the band between the mean VWAP
and one standard deviation below it. Volumes have been persistent. Importantly, the zero
lag MACD shows the lines in parallel and crossing the zero horizontal line from underneath.
I see UNG properly set up for a long trade. Fundamentally, the hot summer may bring
increased natural gas consumption to make electricity for air conditioning. The dam disaster
in Ukraine may close down the biggest nuclear plant in Europe because of cooling
lakes potentially compromised. Natural gas may be an alternative fuel to make electricity.
Compressed NG from the US may become more important to Europe, especially since the
Nordic Stream pipeline issue developed. All in all, I think natural gas prices are likely to rise.
BOIL Megaphone PatternBOIL on the 15-minute chart is currently in an upward facing megaphone pattern. I have drawn
in the upper and lower trendlines which are a form of static support and resistance. The
megaphone pattern is one of increasing volatility between buyers and sellers and indecision
It is the opposite of consolidation in a narrow channel. The anchored VWAP
shows BOIL to be between the mean VWAP and the first standard deviation band below it.
This is generally considered the lower part of the fair value zone. The volume profile has a
high volume area of in the price range of 3 to 3.7 while the POC line is confluent with the
VWAP. The "better" RSI oscillator/ indicator shows values above 75 at swing highs
and values below 25 at swing lows. My goal in this trade is to buy at the lower ( support )
trendline and sell at the higher ( resistance) trendline. I will be watchful for any fibonnaci
retracements of a prior trend. At present, BOIL is at that lower trendline and RSI is showing
weakness. I will add to my position now as I did in the whipsaw action some hours ago at the
location of the bearish engulfing candles in the premarket and the opening.
Can XNGUSD short squeeze?XNGUSD on the weekly chart showing two years of price action with weekly candles
shows the rise in 2021 into spring 2022 then printing a head and shoulders pattern
and the reversal to deep into the support/demand zone. The volume profile shows
the majority of the trading during this time period to have been between $3.75 and
$ 8.50. It would seem likely that there are a sizeable amount of short sellers holding
positions with unrealized profits of 50% to as much as 300%. This past week had the
best buying volume in six months and provides bulls with optimism
If natural gas can gain some momentum and put in green candles with a decent price range for
a couple of weeks in a row, the combination of new buyers with new interest and short sellers
liquidating and buying to cover their unrealized gains might ignite a bit of a rally for natural
gas. I will keep natural gas on watch. I will keep in mind that a breakout without a
corresponding volume the response could be a fakeout. A stop loss would be $1.95 below the
support zone while the final target would be $4.75 below the POC line. Interval take profits
would be 10% of the forex lots every time the price rises by $0.50 for risk management and
good profit taking while underway.
BOIL UPDATE LONGTERMOn the daily chart, BOIL price has never been lower and the relative volume has never
been higher in the past five years. Being mindful, this is leveraged it falls faster than an
the unleveraged counterpart of the same commodity ( UNG INL) However moves in the
opposite directions are also amplified. Horizontal red lines are drawn in consideration
of pivots on the 4H. Price was nearly $600 in 2019. Can you think of a fundamental
reason why price cannot rise from the present price to something closer to that
of 2019. To go from $4 to $600 is 150X in otherwords 15000%. Is there anything
wrong with my math or the chart?
NG longWe are in a bear trend, this is just a Analysis, dont blame me if you lost your money, do your own research.
Natural Gas: PAYDAYNG broke out of a symmetrical triangle in textbook fashion. I'm long from the break out and targeting the resistance line in a larger channel formation, although I took some profit today.
I'm an optimist by nature, and I'm glad to be long something in my portfolio.
Medium term Uptrend on Natural GasThe price is on a 1D Channel Up (RSI = 57.179, Highs/Lows = 0.011). As seen on the chart a Higher Low needs to be price and we have two scenarios for that: soft support at 2.765 and hard support at 2.740. We will use both spots as long entries for a potential Higher High TP = 2.900.
NG - NatGas holding above centerlineCenterline catches pretty good price-action (frequency) of this market.
The prior Hagopian way down below at the L-MLH tell us, that the market will go back more then from where it came. So, this would imply that we will see NG soon way above the centerline.
P!
